Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

Between this, and his awful postmarking proposal, I'm sure glad I avoided being a moderate hero by not voting for him in 2008...

[Meeker]

I'm sure he didn't want to do it. His budget got slashed just like every other state agency. Mailing and printing the voters' guide costs millions of dollars.

[bgwah]

I'm sure he didn't want to do it. His budget got slashed just like every other state agency. Mailing and printing the voters' guide costs millions of dollars.

That's MH talk.

[Alcon]

This is kind of fun.  Here's party ballots in the 2008 Presidential Primary if only men/women voted:

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Wow, Yakima women ftw! 

[bgwah]

That is pretty cool. Now you just need a map showing the gender difference.

[bgwah]

I was wondering how long it might be before Grays Harbor turns into a Lean R county. I decided to see how much more Democratic it has been than the state using gubernatorial and senatorial elections dating back to statehood and added a polynomial trend line (that's what Excel calls it, at least). As the graph shows us, the direction it's trending can change, but on its current course it could definitely be a Republican county by the 2020s.

[bgwah]

I got polled for the first time today. I got the impression it was a pro-Roger Goodman push poll.

[Alcon]

I was wondering how long it might be before Grays Harbor turns into a Lean R county. I decided to see how much more Democratic it has been than the state using gubernatorial and senatorial elections dating back to statehood and added a polynomial trend line (that's what Excel calls it, at least). As the graph shows us, the direction it's trending can change, but on its current course it could definitely be a Republican county by the 2020s.

I wish I knew more about politics in the coast counties.  Another interesting thing I noticed is that both coastal counties had big partisan swings between the 2008 primary and General.

Grays went from to 64% Democratic to 56%, and if you subtract primary ballots from the GE result, you get only about 50.7% of "new" ballots being Democratic.

Pacific went from 63% Democratic to 55%, making 53% of the new ballot estimate Republican.

I wonder where the Dems are losing support: if the Democrats have just been running candidates that are bad for the area, or if swing voters are genuinely trending GOP there long-term.

It's interesting, because they're not exactly rabidly socially conservative areas, and Obama didn't exactly get destroyed there in the primaries.

[Alcon]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WA_062612.pdf

According to PPP, the most popular city in Washington is Spokane (56-14) over Seattle (58-26).  I'm not a Spokane hater -- Brown's Addition seems nice and all.  But this is gross and strange.  Also faring well are Vancouver (49-10), which some people might have thought meant Canada's, and Olympia (48-20).  Tacoma (33-40) did not do so well.

Our local companies are pretty popular: Starbucks (46-25) and especially Microsoft (72-14).

Washingtonians prefer PCs over Macs, 44%-22%.

Only 7% of Washingtonians self-identify as hipsters, while 76% do not, and 17% are too old to know what that means.

Republicans hate Seattle, Tacoma, and Macs, and are ambivalent on Olympia.

Democrats like everything, especially Starbucks.

Republicans are more likely to call themselves hipsters -- 11% versus 7% for Democrats, proving that no hipsters call themselves hipsters, and Republicans have problems with irony.

[bgwah]

So more "like" Seattle than Spokane. Seattle just has a bigger group of haters.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Does anyone know what percentage Kerry got in the new 1st? 

[bgwah]

I went to the 1st district debate tonight. Still looking like Darcy will be the nominee. Sigh.

[Frodo]

Rob McKenna now opposes repealing Obamacare. 

[bgwah]

Rob McKenna now opposes repealing Obamacare. 

Hilarious. He looks pretty stupid right now. Maybe he isn't as strong of a candidate as we thought.

[LastVoter]

Rob McKenna now opposes repealing Obamacare. 

Hilarious. He looks pretty stupid right now. Maybe he isn't as strong of a candidate as we thought.

Something that's supposed to be kept quiet...

[Napoleon]

Is McKenna a troll?

[Meeker]

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but DelBene is on the air with a huge ad buy as of a few days ago and will be on air through the primary.

We'll see what Q2 fundraising totals look like, but I think there's a good chance she'll have the airwaves to herself.

Pretty good bio ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2StoaXE07TE&feature=player_embedded

[bgwah]

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but DelBene is on the air with a huge ad buy as of a few days ago and will be on air through the primary.

We'll see what Q2 fundraising totals look like, but I think there's a good chance she'll have the airwaves to herself.

Pretty good bio ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2StoaXE07TE&feature=player_embedded

She's pretty boring. I wish Ruderman (or even Hobbs) would emerge as the anti-Burner. I'm just not optimistic at all about this race, though.


McKenna is a crappy lawyer, continued:
http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/06/29/rob-mckenna-illegally-bars-stranger-reporter-from-press-conference

Also, I love the Stranger's take on the Seattle Times' endorsement of McKenna: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/06/29/seattle-times-endorses-rob-mckenna-for-governor


I am starting to feel optimistic about the gubernatorial election, though.

[bgwah]

Here are some WA-01 fundraising numbers I pulled from the FEC:

Total receipts
372k - DelBene
362k - Ruderman
338k - Koster
307k - Burner
169k - Rauniyar
119k - Hobbs

Cash on hand
318k - DelBene
220k - Ruderman
124k - Rauinyar
115k - Burner
104k - Koster
99k - Hobbs

[MaxQue]

Why DelBene try so hard? She changed districts and runs against someone else than Reichert?

[Meeker]

She didn't change districts (nor did Burner). They were redistricted into the 1st and out of the 8th.

Her going on the air in June indicates that either a) she had an incredible fundraising quarter or more likely b) she pumped in a big chunk of her own cash in since the last reporting period.

[Meeker]

Also, apparently The Seattle Times endorsed Hobbs this past weekend. Which I guess shouldn't be too surprising, but they did like DelBene quite a bit in 2010.

[Seattle]

Rob McKenna now opposes repealing Obamacare. 

Hilarious. He looks pretty stupid right now. Maybe he isn't as strong of a candidate as we thought.

Honestly, he should of just not filed that lawsuit with the other Republican AGs.

So.... The question is: does this make independents think he's even more moderate or a flip-flopper?

[smoltchanov]

Rob McKenna now opposes repealing Obamacare.  

Hilarious. He looks pretty stupid right now. Maybe he isn't as strong of a candidate as we thought.

Honestly, he should of just not filed that lawsuit with the other Republican AGs.

So.... The question is: does this make independents think he's even more moderate or a flip-flopper?

Both. But, as a moderate AND Independent, i would still prefer him over Inslee.