Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Meeker]

Do they always source the Atlas in those posts? I'd never noticed that.

[bgwah]

I was wondering when they were going to get to Washington.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/washington-state-womens-rights-and-big-cities/

That... wasn't very interesting or informative.

[Meeker]

I was wondering when they were going to get to Washington.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/washington-state-womens-rights-and-big-cities/

That... wasn't very interesting or informative.

You are not the average reader

[Alcon]

Even with all of their "lol lol hipster" stuff in the last article, I liked it much better.  Viewing Washington's political leanings almost entirely through the lens of women's rights and abortion is pretty lazy

[CultureKing]

Even with all of their "lol lol hipster" stuff in the last article, I liked it much better.  Viewing Washington's political leanings almost entirely through the lens of women's rights and abortion is pretty lazy

Agreed. And considering that the author is on the faculty at UW just makes it seem all the worse. Very poor job.

[Meeker]

Here are the combined D and R totals in the gubernatorial race by LD. I disregarded the three Independents.

There are obviously a lot of flaws in drawing too many conclusions from this data, but it's a first look at hard numbers for the new lines. (I'll do this again after the general and average all the statewide races together.)

The Democratic vote is more inefficient than ever for the State Legislature. Democrats were below their statewide average in 29 out of 49 LD's. I suspect over the next decade you will see Democrats fairly easily winning statewide races thanks to King County while simultaneously struggling to grow or maintain their majorities in the State Legislature (which is, not coincidentally, what we're seeing this year).

[Meeker]

Additionally, just for kicks:

Solid Democratic LD's: These LD's will not elect a Republican. No Republicans currently hold them. 3rd, 11th, 21st, 22nd, 27th, 29th, 32nd, 33rd, 34th, 36th, 37th, 40th, 43rd, 46th. 14 Senate seats, 28 House seats.

Less Solid Democratic LD's: Under very unusual circumstances a Republican could win here. They came close in a few of these districts in 2010 (though the lines were slightly different from now). 1st, 23rd, 24th, 38th, 48th, 49th. 6 Senate seats, 12 House seats.

Lean Democratic LD's: These districts have a Democratic tinge but will elect Republicans given the right candidate and the right year. Republicans currently hold two of these Senate seats and one of these House Seats. 19th, 30th, 41st, 45th. 4 Senate seats, 8 House seats.

Toss-up: Free-for-all districts. The Senate seats are currently 2D, 2R and Tim Sheldon; the House seats are 6D and 4R. 10th, 28th, 35th, 44th, 47th. 5 Senate seats, 10 House seats.

Lean Republican LD's: A Republican tinge but Democrats can win under the correct circumstances. Democrats have two of these Senate seats (though one will flip this fall and the incumbent in the other one - Derek Kilmer - is likely to be elected to Congress). They also have one of these House seats. 5th, 25th, 26th, 39th, 42nd. 5 Senate seats, 10 House seats.

Less Solid Republican LD's: These aren't quite out of reach for Democrats but are pretty close to it. Democrats hold none of these Senate seats and two of these House seats (one of whom is "Independent Democrat" Chris Hurst). 2nd, 6th, 17th, 31st. 4 Senate seats, 8 House seats.

Solid Republican LD's: Wastelands for Democrats. The last Democrat to represent one of these districts (Bill Grant) passed away in 2009. He will be the last one for a very long time. 4th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 18th, 20th. 11 Senate seats, 22 House seats.

[bgwah]

So when you predict the Senate will be 26-23, does that mean it would likely become 25-24 when the Rs win the special for Kilmer's seat next year?

[Meeker]

So when you predict the Senate will be 26-23, does that mean it would likely become 25-24 when the Rs win the special for Kilmer's seat next year?

Yes, sadly. With Tim Sheldon holding the balance of power.

[bgwah]

So when you predict the Senate will be 26-23, does that mean it would likely become 25-24 when the Rs win the special for Kilmer's seat next year?

Yes, sadly. With Tim Sheldon holding the balance of power.

And Litzow should be re-elected, if the primary is any indication.

I don't know how strong Hill will be in 2014. Springer might be able to knock him off.

[Meeker]

Hill probably could be beaten with the correct candidate. Picking up the 28th once Carrell leaves is also a must.

On the whole it's a pretty bleak future though.

[CultureKing]

So when you predict the Senate will be 26-23, does that mean it would likely become 25-24 when the Rs win the special for Kilmer's seat next year?

Yes, sadly. With Tim Sheldon holding the balance of power.

That is a rather terrifying prospect.

[bgwah]

Hill probably could be beaten with the correct candidate. Picking up the 28th once Carrell leaves is also a must.

On the whole it's a pretty bleak future though.

It's hard to predict this sort of thing, though. A year ago, I doubt any of us realized the 5th would be a possible Democratic pick-up, for example. Who knows what we might win.

If by "bleak" you mean we probably won't have 30 seats any time soon, then I guess you're right. We'll have to wait and see if any more suburbs trend D like the Eastside did in the 00s.

Interestingly enough, the 37th and 43rd are two of the fastest growing districts in the state right now. So Seattle might actually be slightly underrepresented as the decade progresses, while in the past it it tended to be over represented due to slower growth than the state (and in a few decades, population decline).

[Meeker]

Hill probably could be beaten with the correct candidate. Picking up the 28th once Carrell leaves is also a must.

On the whole it's a pretty bleak future though.

It's hard to predict this sort of thing, though. A year ago, I doubt any of us realized the 5th would be a possible Democratic pick-up, for example. Who knows what we might win.

If by "bleak" you mean we probably won't have 30 seats any time soon, then I guess you're right. We'll have to wait and see if any more suburbs trend D like the Eastside did in the 00s.

Interestingly enough, the 37th and 43rd are two of the fastest growing districts in the state right now. So Seattle might actually be slightly underrepresented as the decade progresses, while in the past it it tended to be over represented due to slower growth than the state (and in a few decades, population decline).

I want my supermajority and I want it now!

[Meeker]

I'm getting increasingly confident that we're going to win all the statewide offices. Reed and McKenna were able to hold on in 2008 because they were incumbents with crappy opponents. There aren't any Republican incumbents this time around, and in order for a Republican to win statewide in an open seat race they need to get at least 40% in King County (McKenna got 46% in '04, Reed 40% in '00).

Wyman + the Constitution Party candidate got only 31% there in the primary; Dunn + the minor Republican got 38%; Watkins got 34%. Unless something pretty radical shifts, I think the increasingly partisan nature of the electorate is going to work very much in our favor.

How about the legislature?  Will Democrats be able to solidify their majorities in either chamber?

Senate: R's will pick-up the 25th, D's the 5th. The 10th and the 17th are toss-ups. My gut tells me the GOP will win both but we'll see. The 1st, the 2nd, the 19th and the 28th are not actually competitive despite what either side may be saying.

House: R's will pick-up the 17th, Pos. 1, the 28th, Pos. 1 and perhaps the 30th, Pos. 1. D's will likely pick-up the 25th, Pos. 1 and have an outside shot at the 10th, Pos. 2 and the 47th, Pos. 1.

If I were a betting man on this stuff, I'd say a 26-23 State Senate and 54-44 State House

I just skimmed over the most recent fundraising numbers and feel much better about D prospects in the 30th, Pos. 1 and the 47th, Pos. 1 FWIW. Also feel much worse about prospects in the 17th, however...

[bgwah]

http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/simgad/15936881353639972056

Just... lol

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I think McKenna is going to win.  Most of the pundits in Washington State think he has a better chance, and he will probably make some inroads with moderates (Inslee will still win them, but McKenna will do better than most Republicans.)  Granted, I don't live in Washington State, but I still think that McKenna will win.  The most recent poll I saw had Inslee leading by three points, but it was within the margin of error and was a poll of registered rather than likely voters.  Once those two things are factored in, it seems at least somewhat likely to me that McKenna is leading.

[Earthling]

SurveyUSA and PPP both had polls with Likely Voters. Inslee was leading in 5 and 6 points in these polls.

[Meeker]

I think McKenna is going to win.  Most of the pundits in Washington State think he has a better chance, and he will probably make some inroads with moderates (Inslee will still win them, but McKenna will do better than most Republicans.)  Granted, I don't live in Washington State, but I still think that McKenna will win.  The most recent poll I saw had Inslee leading by three points, but it was within the margin of error and was a poll of registered rather than likely voters.  Once those two things are factored in, it seems at least somewhat likely to me that McKenna is leading.

k

[bgwah]

McKenna might win... But not if he loses "moderates."

[Oldiesfreak1854]

McKenna might win... But not if he loses "moderates."

He'll definitely lose moderates, since they're a safely Democratic voting bloc.  But if he can get 40% or more of the moderate vote, which there is a good chance of, he will probably win.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I think McKenna is going to win.  Most of the pundits in Washington State think he has a better chance, and he will probably make some inroads with moderates (Inslee will still win them, but McKenna will do better than most Republicans.)  Granted, I don't live in Washington State, but I still think that McKenna will win.  The most recent poll I saw had Inslee leading by three points, but it was within the margin of error and was a poll of registered rather than likely voters.  Once those two things are factored in, it seems at least somewhat likely to me that McKenna is leading.

k

[Seattle]

McKenna might win... But not if he loses "moderates."

He'll definitely lose moderates, since they're a safely Democratic voting bloc.  But if he can get 40% or more of the moderate vote, which there is a good chance of, he will probably win.

Mckenna won't get anywhere near that level for Democrat moderates. As for independents, the only way Mckenna wins is if he leads that group.

[Alcon]

This is a really bizarre observation, but...if you look at the state voter database (or VoteBuilder or whatever), and look up people born on the 1st of any year, they're way, way disproportionately likely to have Muslim names.  Can anyone think of any explanation for that?

Maybe no record of their birth or something?  (Seems like a few Vietnamese, as well)

[Meeker]

ACORN/voter fraud, most likely