Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Cobbler]

Anyone watch the debates? McKenna won pretty clearly, I'd say. What are the odds that this will have an impact on polling?

[Meeker]

McKenna attacked constantly and sounded desperate and snarky. Was not a good performance for him.

Either way, no one watches gubernatorial debates.

[CultureKing]

Yeah, no one watches those debates..

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I don't know what this is, or half of what is going on, but this must be the result of some really inspiring drugs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BF3xnumI0Z8

lol what a freak

[Alcon]

http://www.king5.com/home/KING-5-poll-Obamas-lead-in-Washington-bigger-than-2008-172410401.html

SurveyUSA

Obama 56%
Romney 36%

[Cobbler]

McKenna attacked constantly and sounded desperate and snarky. Was not a good performance for him.

I agree, he attacked a lot and came off as too aggressive, but I felt he had much more substance/came off as more knowledgeable about the issues and addressed the questions more than Inslee, who I felt said the same talking points almost every question.

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Yeah I figured, but I wasn't sure. Thanks for clearing it up for me.

[bgwah]

I agree, he attacked a lot and came off as too aggressive, but I felt he had much more substance/came off as more knowledgeable about the issues and addressed the questions more than Inslee, who I felt said the same talking points almost every question.

Seems to be working.

[Meeker]

Michael Baumgartner endorsed I-502 today: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/10/03/2319292/gop-senate-hopeful-latest-to-endorse.html

The Columbian, which IMO is usually pretty right-wing, also endorsed it on Sunday. I know The Olympian and The Seattle Times have as well. The News Tribune did not. Not sure about other papers off the top of my head.

[bgwah]

Michael Baumgartner endorsed I-502 today: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/10/03/2319292/gop-senate-hopeful-latest-to-endorse.html

The Columbian, which IMO is usually pretty right-wing, also endorsed it on Sunday. I know The Olympian and The Seattle Times have as well. The News Tribune did not. Not sure about other papers off the top of my head.

Haha. Someone's desperate.

[bgwah]

wtf Slog

[Meeker]

Pretty sure all these posts are made up

[bgwah]

Pretty sure all these posts are made up

The last few would seem to confirm that hypothesis.

Fooled the PI! http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/10/04/no-hack-just-fact-mckenna-takes-over-the-stranger/

[Alcon]

I can't find the full topline, but Referendum 74 is at 55% on the latest SUSA (-1%), and pot legalization is unchanged at 57%.

[bgwah]

I figured legalization would have plummeted by now. Maybe it will actually pass!

[Meeker]

There's still no organized opposition campaign besides the medical marijuana community opposing it from the left (and they're not very organized either). Plus it's been getting good editorials in the newspaper. I'm inclined to think it'll pass as well, unless the feds come in and start raising legal questions to the local media.

[Alcon]

There's still no organized opposition campaign besides the medical marijuana community opposing it from the left (and they're not very organized either). Plus it's been getting good editorials in the newspaper. I'm inclined to think it'll pass as well, unless the feds come in and start raising legal questions to the local media.

I also think the No on I-502 people who are semi-organized are exactly the sort of people the Yes on I-502 people want for opposition.  The biggest victory for an actually viable counter-argument was the TNT endorsement...and that's pretty much nothing.  It's hard to see it going from 57% to a loss.  I think it may end up with a double-digit win.

[Ogre Mage]

I'm somewhat shocked by this -- the Spokane Spokesman-Review editorialized in favor of both I-502 and R-74.

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/oct/02/editorial-regulation-taxation-of-marijuana-worth/

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/sep/16/editorial-editorial-affirm-r-74-because-state-has/

I'm increasingly optimistic both will pass.

[bgwah]

Any particular reason charter schools will finally pass? Or is it just that the pro-side has way more money?

[Alcon]

Any particular reason charter schools will finally pass? Or is it just that the pro-side has way more money?

That's a big part.  Also, the No side, at least whenever I've seen them, has terrible messaging.  They operate either in pithy soundbites or heinously long presentations that I can never remember anything about.  They haven't managed to expand their campaign beyond their base.

[Alcon]

Full SUSA results:

Gay marriage (Approve +15)
Approve 55% (-1)
Reject 40% (+2)
Undecided 6% (nc)
"Dumb" extrapolation: 58-42 Approve (+16)

Marijuana legalization (Yes +24)
Yes 57% (nc)
No 33% (-1)
Undecided 10% (+1)
"Dumb" extrapolation: 63-37 Yes (+27)

Eyman's symbolic thing (Yes +30)
Yes 56% (-2)
No 26% (+5)
Undecided 17% (-3)
"Dumb" extrapolation: 68-32 Yes (+37)

Charter schools (Yes +19)
Yes 49% (-3)
No 30% (+4)
Undecided 21% (-1)
"Dumb" extrapolation: 62-38 Yes (+24)

U.S. Senate (Cantwell +13)
Cantwell 53% (-1)
Baumgartner 40% (+2)
Undecided 6% (-1)
"Dumb" extrapolation: 57-43 Cantwell (+14)

Attorney General (D+8)
Ferguson 43% (+1)
Dunn 35% (+2)
Undecided 21% (-3)
"Dumb" extrapolation: 55-45 Ferguson (+10)

No link yet.  I think it's a little weird that Obama is kicking Cantwell's ass.

[Meeker]

The charter school people learned a lesson from Costco: gather enough money to put something on the ballot enough times and eventually it'll get approved.

Yay direct democracy!

[greenforest32]

Full SUSA results:

Marijuana legalization (Yes +24)
Yes 57% (nc)
No 33% (-1)
Undecided 10% (+1)
"Dumb" extrapolation: 63-37 Yes (+27)

[Alcon]

Meet Tonasket Mayor Patrick "I Have Friends That Are Disabled" Plumb

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/10/05/the-mayor-of-tonasket-wa-goes-on-anti-libtard-twitter-rant-threatens-to-eat-big-bird

[Alcon]

Lolway may have released another poll last week.  So far, the only possible specifics I've found are R-74 at 57% (up from 51%)

[Meeker]

The anti-R-74 ads begin airing on Monday.