Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

I wouldn't say he's favored, but it'll be a tough race for her. This is Pete von Reichbauer's old district after all!

So the district has a history of this sort of thing.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Maybe not THE dullest midterm


I-594 will create background checks on ALL gun sales. I-591 would limit background checks except for those required by federal law. I know which one I'm voting for, but I could see either one passing.

Dueling initiatives are always fun.

Vote yes on both for the lulz

[Meeker]

Apparently Miloscia is still a Democratic PCO. Lulz

[bgwah]

I would respect these people more if they just ran as independents. But I realize that's easier said than done to some extent.

[Meeker]

Eide just announced she's retiring. Sigh.

[Meeker]

I think Bill Bryant is running for Governor. Or some other statewide office. He spoke at the San Juan County GOP annual dinner this past weekend, and the Whatcom County one the week before that. Hard to believe he's doing it just for kicks.

[publicunofficial]

Rodney Tom is dropping his re-election bid, citing health problems and caring for his elderly father.


Good riddance

[windjammer]

Rodney Tom is dropping his re-election bid, citing health problems and caring for his elderly father.


Good riddance

D+1?

[publicunofficial]

Rodney Tom is dropping his re-election bid, citing health problems and caring for his elderly father.


Good riddance

D+1?

Most likely yeah. It's a Lean-Likey D seat, and I doubt anyone joins the MCC after this.

[bgwah]

I think McBride may have been favored against him already, but I would consider that seat Lean D now, which would leave Rs/Sheldon at 25-24.

Not sure what the next most likely D pick-up would be. Maybe the 28th?

Andy Hill has raised a ton of money (he'll probably run for Congress, but maybe not this year).

Fain's seat is usually close. Democrats would need to hold everything (including the 30th!). Hmm.

Summary please, Meeker!!

[Meeker]

Well this is very welcome news

In my opinion we've now got the 48th pretty well locked down. I think there's a good chance Cyrus Habib jumps up to the Senate race (and then McBride drops down to Habib's House seat).

I'm very nervous about the 30th. The 44th is also at risk (Hobbs recently got a rich guy opponent).

Our best shots at a pick-up are the 45th and the 28th, though I'm not sure in which order. The 6th is interesting as well. Our candidate is raising good money and Baumgartner has had... issues.

The 35th is a bit of a question mark - the real Democrat is running a serious campaign and there's a Republican in the race. Sheldon only needs 34% to make it to the general though, which he should be able to get.

I don't think we have much of any shot at the 26th or the 47th. We don't even have a candidate in the latter.

I guess I'd say 60-40 odds the Senate is controlled by Republicans + Sheldon next year.

[bgwah]

If Sheldon were the swing voter again, would he allow a Republican to be majority leader? Would he want to be majority leader? Are there any Democrats he would support for it?

Andy Hill has raised more money than anyone else in any district, has been generally inoffensive, and the district is only marginally Democratic at best... I'm having trouble seeing him lose.

[Meeker]

Sheldon wasn't really a part of the Democratic caucus even before the MCC came to be... it's hard for me to see him giving control of the chamber back to the Democrats. I bet at this point he'd vote for a Republican to be majority leader, perhaps not Schoesler though (maybe Hill? Dammeier? I think Fain is running for AG so probably not him). I've got no idea if Sheldon himself would want the job.

The only two Democrats I could see him supporting to take Tom's place would be Hobbs and Hatfield, but I don't think they'd go for it. It's also possible Republicans take the majority without needing Sheldon's vote, and I'm not sure what he or they would do in that circumstance.

You're probably correct on Hill now that I think about it more.

[KingSweden]

Well this is very welcome news

In my opinion we've now got the 48th pretty well locked down. I think there's a good chance Cyrus Habib jumps up to the Senate race (and then McBride drops down to Habib's House seat).

I'm very nervous about the 30th. The 44th is also at risk (Hobbs recently got a rich guy opponent).

Our best shots at a pick-up are the 45th and the 28th, though I'm not sure in which order. The 6th is interesting as well. Our candidate is raising good money and Baumgartner has had... issues.

The 35th is a bit of a question mark - the real Democrat is running a serious campaign and there's a Republican in the race. Sheldon only needs 34% to make it to the general though, which he should be able to get.

I don't think we have much of any shot at the 26th or the 47th. We don't even have a candidate in the latter.

I guess I'd say 60-40 odds the Senate is controlled by Republicans + Sheldon next year.

Baumgartner is a gigantic hack. I can't wait for him to go down in flames (I live in his district, most definitely voting for Cowan. There are a lot of affluent Ds up here on the South Hill who probably won't vote for Baumgartner again.)

[publicunofficial]

Maybe not THE dullest midterm


I-594 will create background checks on ALL gun sales. I-591 would limit background checks except for those required by federal law. I know which one I'm voting for, but I could see either one passing.

Dueling initiatives are always fun.

Vote yes on both for the lulz

Washington voters might just do that

A new poll shows support for I-594 (Pro background checks) is at 72%, but I-591 (Anti background checks) has 55% support.


Funnily enough, I-594 has majority support among gun owners (71%) and Republicans (68%).

[Meeker]

Sheldon says he's sticking with the MCC/GOP/Forces of Darkness: http://crosscut.com/2014/04/15/under-the-dome/119647/lone-democrat-senate-majority-no-problem/

[Meeker]

Also, the first fundraising numbers in WA-04 have arrived. Dan Newhouse leads with $162k raised followed by Didier with $103k. Janéa Holmquist Newbry is in third with $62k.

George Cicotte (lawyer from the Tri-Cities) and Brad Peck each raised less than $30k but loaned their campaigns $75k.

[publicunofficial]

State Rep. Cyrus Habib will run for Tom's Senate seat, while McBride will drop down to Habib's house seat

[Zioneer]

State Rep. Cyrus Habib will run for Tom's Senate seat, while McBride will drop down to Habib's house seat

Ha, the Washington Republicans crying "sexism" when both of Washinton's Senators being women, and the previous governor being a woman.

Also, I think Habib will be a great Congressional candidate a couple of years down the line.

[publicunofficial]

Roll Call has an article out about the bench both sides have in Washington, and how the state's relatively young delegation will likely prevent a lot of people moving up for a while.


The only dumb mistake I notice is they mention Cyrus Habib and State Sen. Marko Liias as potential successors to Jim McDermott should he retire, but Habib lives in DelBene's district and Liias lives in Larsen's.

[bgwah]

Bump for filing week??

The congressional races look pretty dull aside from WA-4, which will probably only be interesting in the primary unless it ends up being R vs R, but there are enough Republicans running that I would guess a Democrat will make it to the general.

Larsen only has an independent challenger (and OWS type) so far, and Smith only has a Democratic opponent.

[publicunofficial]

Heck and DelBene have decent opponents, but no one that will win.


Kilmer's only filed opponent is an Independent W. "Graybeard" McPherson, a Green Party type from Port Angeles running on environmental issues. There's supposedly a Republican Some Dude from Bremerton who is supposed to file soon, but I haven't heard anything more about that.

[Meeker]

One of the socialist organizers behind Sawant's campaign is running against Frank Chopp. Sawant herself got 29% against Chopp in 2012. She won the 43rd with 57% in 2013.

[publicunofficial]

One of the socialist organizers behind Sawant's campaign is running against Frank Chopp. Sawant herself got 29% against Chopp in 2012. She won the 43rd with 57% in 2013.

Don't think it goes anywhere. Unlike Conlin, progressives don't really have any gripes with Chopp from what I know.

[bgwah]

The Stranger says SA is running against Chopp, although I don't see her on the SoS filing website.

Unusual party names that will appear on the ballot:
Republicanspirit Party
Framer Party (?)
Centralist Party (lol)
Marijuana Party (What's the point?)
Work and Wealth Party (Goodspaceguy)
Human Rights Party (yawn)