Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 837192 times)
Alcon
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« Reply #4675 on: August 11, 2014, 07:05:36 PM »

We're better than this, guys.  Stop being disappointing adults and start discussing politics on the internets!
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4676 on: August 11, 2014, 10:57:29 PM »

26-23 or 25-24 in favor of GOP is likely. I think the 30th is not a totally lost cause, but it doesn't look good and the 48th is probably the only pickup as of now. Still, the suburbs could break Dem I guess. Whatever chance the D's probably had in the 6th is likely gone with I-594 on the ballot.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4677 on: September 04, 2014, 09:32:41 AM »

This could get interesting:

http://crosscut.com/2014/09/03/education/121749/supreme-court-pushes-legislature-mcleary-johnstang/
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #4678 on: September 08, 2014, 06:55:43 PM »

Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers is implicated in ethics scandal by former aide:

http://www.spokesman.com/blogs/spincontrol/2014/sep/08/former-mcmorris-rodgers-aide-says-scandal-investigation-expanding/

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2014/09/08/former-aide-for-cathy-mcmorris-rodgers-breaks-silence-on-ethics-case/
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #4679 on: October 19, 2014, 03:56:05 PM »

Is there any good reason for voting for I-1351?
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Alcon
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« Reply #4680 on: October 19, 2014, 09:57:10 PM »

Is there any good reason for voting for I-1351?

"To send a message."

...Which seems silly to me, since I don't think the legislature is lacking in signals that they need to fully fund education, and this has a bunch of additional strings attached that wouldn't help with that effort anyway.

Even the hardcore liberals I know are 50/50 on this.  It's amazing how well it's polling statewide  I've never seen a measure with such a huge gap between the politically educated and the voters who just read the Voters' Pamphlet.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #4681 on: October 24, 2014, 01:50:14 PM »

There was a shooting at a high school near my hometown. Up to eight people, including the shooter may have been shot.
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Alaska2392
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« Reply #4682 on: October 30, 2014, 02:41:52 PM »

The Washington Poll was released for KCTS9 yesterday.  As many of you know this poll is performed by the University of Washington on a yearly (or nearly yearly basis).

Would definitely post a link to the full results for you guys, but it looks like I am below the post number threshold to paste links.  You can find it pretty easily through Google.  You can also go to the KCTS 9 website and find by clicking "Election 2014" under the programs tab.

Disappointed in the survey this year.  Would have been great if they actually polled the house races rather than just asking about initiatives.  I guess the one nice thing is we have some confirmation that Elway Poll wasn't crazy when it said that it really is a possibility that both gun initiatives pass.

Also love the wording of question 34, "The America that you know and love isn't changing too fast, and will never change..."  Agree or Disagree?   What if there isn't much to love about the current America and you want it to change?
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #4683 on: October 30, 2014, 03:42:15 PM »

The Washington Poll was released for KCTS9 yesterday.  As many of you know this poll is performed by the University of Washington on a yearly (or nearly yearly basis).

Would definitely post a link to the full results for you guys, but it looks like I am below the post number threshold to paste links.  You can find it pretty easily through Google.  You can also go to the KCTS 9 website and find by clicking "Election 2014" under the programs tab.

Disappointed in the survey this year.  Would have been great if they actually polled the house races rather than just asking about initiatives.  I guess the one nice thing is we have some confirmation that Elway Poll wasn't crazy when it said that it really is a possibility that both gun initiatives pass.

Also love the wording of question 34, "The America that you know and love isn't changing too fast, and will never change..."  Agree or Disagree?   What if there isn't much to love about the current America and you want it to change?

I assume you mean this? It's a nice LaTeX file.
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bgwah
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« Reply #4684 on: November 01, 2014, 03:11:12 PM »

Nothing too surprising in the Washington Poll, although Inslee's favorables are higher than I would have guessed (54-29). 

Interesting to note presidential candidate ratings as well:
Clinton: 55-38
Cristie: 33-40
Rubio: 27-27
Biden: 43-43
Cruz: 25-33
Ryan: 29-34
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4685 on: November 01, 2014, 03:12:49 PM »

Nothing too surprising in the Washington Poll, although Inslee's favorables are higher than I would have guessed (54-29). 

Interesting to note presidential candidate ratings as well:
Clinton: 55-38
Cristie: 33-40
Rubio: 27-27
Biden: 43-43
Cruz: 25-33
Ryan: 29-34

Looks like Hilldawg is #dominating in Washington!
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4686 on: November 01, 2014, 07:30:53 PM »

Nothing too surprising in the Washington Poll, although Inslee's favorables are higher than I would have guessed (54-29). 

Interesting to note presidential candidate ratings as well:
Clinton: 55-38
Cristie: 33-40
Rubio: 27-27
Biden: 43-43
Cruz: 25-33
Ryan: 29-34

If Inslee can maintain those favorables over the next legislative session, he should be fine. I don't see the GOP running a candidate nearly as strong as McKenna in '16.

Looks like Hilldawg is #dominating in Washington!
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bgwah
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« Reply #4687 on: November 05, 2014, 06:28:54 AM »

Looks like the State Senate is staying 26-23 as expected. It would appear Ds are currently holding onto the state house 51-48, with a potential Haigh loss resulting in 50-49. I have no idea how late ballots will trend this year but I haven't noticed a potential 50th seat for Republicans.

17-1 (Stonier, D)
R up 525 votes

25-1 (Morrell, D)
R up 1353 votes

26-2 (Seaquist, D)
R up 78 votes

28-2 (Open, D)
R up 69 votes

35-1 (Haigh, D)
D up 223 votes
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #4688 on: November 05, 2014, 08:28:43 PM »

Really hoping I-1351 stays No. I'm not sure if it will or not.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #4689 on: November 05, 2014, 08:31:52 PM »

Does it look like the R + renegade D coalition will hold in the state Senate?
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bgwah
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« Reply #4690 on: November 05, 2014, 08:42:12 PM »

Does it look like the R + renegade D coalition will hold in the state Senate?

It went from 24+2 to 23,  to 25+1 to 23. So the coalition is still 26-23 but official members of the Republican Party now hold a majority either way.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4691 on: November 05, 2014, 08:48:56 PM »

Does it look like the R + renegade D coalition will hold in the state Senate?

It went from 24+2 to 23,  to 25+1 to 23. So the coalition is still 26-23 but official members of the Republican Party now hold a majority either way.

And to make it extra interesting, Rodney Tom retiring means Mark Schoesler becomes Majority Leader. Him and his district are both MUCH more conservative than Tom.
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #4692 on: November 06, 2014, 04:23:15 PM »

The new cycle begins

Dave Reichert is believed to be gearing up for a campaign against Inslee
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4693 on: November 06, 2014, 09:54:48 PM »


Reichert will/would be a disaster. Anyone who almost lost to DARCY BURNER would get eaten alive in a statewide contest. McKenna at least won statewide twice with Dems winning by big margins at the top of the ticket and didn't have votes on record for the Ryan budget and other House GOP nonsense.
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bgwah
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« Reply #4694 on: November 07, 2014, 12:32:28 AM »

Andy Hill would be a stronger candidate than Reichert, IMO.

Looks like the State Senate is staying 26-23 as expected. It would appear Ds are currently holding onto the state house 51-48, with a potential Haigh loss resulting in 50-49. I have no idea how late ballots will trend this year but I haven't noticed a potential 50th seat for Republicans.

17-1 (Stonier, D)
R up 525 votes

25-1 (Morrell, D)
R up 1353 votes

26-2 (Seaquist, D)
R up 78 votes

28-2 (Open, D)
R up 69 votes

35-1 (Haigh, D)
D up 223 votes

The Democrat is now leading the 28th by 240 votes, but Haigh is now behind by 157 votes. Looking like 51-48 House.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4695 on: November 16, 2014, 05:37:04 PM »

Looking ahead to 2015/2016 (mostly to have some discussion in this thread until some real news comes out):

In 2015, the big ticket item is the city council race in Seattle, contested for the first time in districts as opposed to at-large. There'll be 7 district-elected councilmembers and 2 at-large. The big action here will be between the establishment D's and the Socialists in the Kshama Sawant camp. Sawant seems to be popular in a polarized sort of way, and her strongest possible challenger took a post at the ACLU. It'll be interesting to see which current councilmembers survive/continue on into the next council. Odds are, we'll see a City Council even further left of the current one come January 2016.

There'll be elections in Bellevue and Spokane, too. In 2011, the Bellevue city council elections essentially boiled down to pro or anti-East Link, with Kemper Freeman trying (and failing) to oust the pro-LRT candidates. With that mostly a settled issue at that point, and with liberals knocking off a conservative councilmember and coming close to taking out a second in 2013, look for the more left-leaning members of the council to be playing defense once again, but with a less salient issue defining the elections.

Over here in Spokane, we also are electing the Mayor in addition to several city council slots. Since early last year, the City Council has had a liberal majority, and after the resignation of a conservative council member this summer, the City Council has a veto-proof majority, the importance of which was evidenced when Mayor David Condon vetoed an anti-sprawl ordinance passed by the council this last winter. The Condon reelection race is the big ticket here - no Spokane mayor has won reelection since the city switched to a strong mayor system. Condon, a former chief of staff to Congresswoman Cathy McMorris-Rodgers, is opposed both on the right and the left. Many conservative Republicans regard him as a cronyist, spendthrift RINO who has stocked City Hall with his buddies and who has never worked in a job outside of government, and most Democrats regard him as a cronyist hack bought-and-paid for by Spokane's VERY conservative construction lobby. The strongest candidate, Council President Ben Stuckart, has ruled out a run in order to run for reelection. It is not clear who will challenge Condon from the left, and the disciplined GOP operation in Spokane County is likely to run-interference on any challenge from the right.

The other potential big race in 2015 is in the 30th LD, where incumbent Position 2 Rep. Roger Freeman passed away a few days before the election (RIP) but was reelected posthumously. 30th LD Democrats will nominate his successor to be approved by the King and Pierce County Councils. With the State House control on the razor's edge, the special election this fall to fill the seat could be a big target for both sides.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #4696 on: November 19, 2014, 03:34:18 AM »

From my congressional thread:

2014 House elections by county in Washington State



Democrats combined only got 51.6% of the vote statewide.  Pierce County was the bellwether this cycle being 51% Democrat, with Dems getting 68% in King, 56% in Snohomish, and 59% in Thurston.   WA-4 was between two Republicans, which is why you see so many 90%+ GOP counties in the central part of the state and such.   
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Alcon
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« Reply #4697 on: November 26, 2014, 09:11:43 PM »

Top I-594 towns:

Seattle - 87.91%
Bainbridge Island - 83.60%
Langley - 82.86%
Mercer Island - 81.83%
Port Townsend - 81.61%
Lake Forest Park - 79.79%
Wapato - 79.23%
Shoreline - 78.34%
Yarrow Point - 77.66%
Beaux Arts Village - 77.33%
...
Oakville - 25.88%
Ione - 22.98%
Krupp - 22.22%
Lamont - 20.83%
Starbuck - 20.29%
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bgwah
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« Reply #4698 on: November 29, 2014, 04:49:55 PM »

No maps? Sad
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Seattle
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« Reply #4699 on: November 29, 2014, 04:55:32 PM »

Surprised that Oakville voted so heavily against it. Interesting to see how sharp the split is between Langley and Oakville.

A bit surprised not to see Bellingham on the top list too.
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