Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

Surprised that Oakville voted so heavily against it. Interesting to see how sharp the split is between Langley and Oakville.

A bit surprised not to see Bellingham on the top list too.

You might be confusing Oakville with Oak Harbor.

Yarrow Point in the top ten is interesting.

[Alcon]

Yeah, Oakville is a small town between Olympia and Hoquiam/Aberdeen.  Oak Harbor was basically tied (50.1% No), but it's a way different town than Langley.  Lots of retired and current military.  (Although I-594 actually passed military bases statewide, 61%-39%).

Here's a beautiful I-594 map of King County.  bgwah, no complaining about the color scheme.  (Click for larger, uncompressed version - slow load time)

[Seattle]

Surprised that Oakville voted so heavily against it. Interesting to see how sharp the split is between Langley and Oakville.

A bit surprised not to see Bellingham on the top list too.

You might be confusing Oakville with Oak Harbor.

Yarrow Point in the top ten is interesting.

Yup- what a brain fart.

Alcon- Great map!

[Seattle]

I was just looking through WA's gubernatorial results going back into the 80s and I saw something weird.

How is it that Booth Gardner won Cowlitz county with 62% of the vote in 1984, but lost it narrowly in 1988, while sweeping the state? Even Garfield county voted for him (though I imagine Garfield County was not as Republican as it is now). Now that I'm looking, Wahkiakum County also swung significantly against Gardner.

Also why did Dixy Lee Ray get 60%> in Benton and Franklin counties in 1976?

[bgwah]

I was just looking through WA's gubernatorial results going back into the 80s and I saw something weird.

How is it that Booth Gardner won Cowlitz county with 62% of the vote in 1984, but lost it narrowly in 1988, while sweeping the state? Even Garfield county voted for him (though I imagine Garfield County was not as Republican as it is now). Now that I'm looking, Wahkiakum County also swung significantly against Gardner.

Also why did Dixy Lee Ray get 60%> in Benton and Franklin counties in 1976?

The Republican candidate was from Cowlitz County in 1988 and represented that area in the state legislature.

Aside from being a conservative Democrat, Ray was a big support of nuclear power. The intro to her Wikipedia page includes quite a bit of information on that subject (link).

[publicunofficial]

County Maps of I-594 and I-591

I-594 (Pro background checks)
]
Yes - 59.27%
No - 40.73%

I-591 (Anti background checks)

Yes - 44.73%
No - 55.27%

Asotin County continues to be an electoral enigma.

[publicunofficial]

The Stranger has gotten it's hands on an email from Ex-SoS Sam Reed apparently meant for fellow "mainstream Republicans" in which Reed states that he believes State Sen. Andy Hill will run against Jay Inslee in 2016.


For those unaware, Hill is a moderate Republican who currently holds a Redmond/Bellevue-based seat that went 58% for Obama in 2012. I'd essentially describe him as "Rob McKenna with a voting record"

[morgieb]

County Maps of I-594 and I-591

I-594 (Pro background checks)
]
Yes - 59.27%
No - 40.73%

I-591 (Anti background checks)

Yes - 44.73%
No - 55.27%

Asotin County continues to be an electoral enigma.

Why the hell does the same question asked differently have quite different percentages? Are voters really that dumb.

[Türkisblau]

County Maps of I-594 and I-591

I-594 (Pro background checks)
]
Yes - 59.27%
No - 40.73%

I-591 (Anti background checks)

Yes - 44.73%
No - 55.27%

Asotin County continues to be an electoral enigma.

Why the hell does the same question asked differently have quite different percentages? Are voters really that dumb.

You do know that your sig has Abbott? I think you already know the answer to your question.

[IceSpear]

Are voters really that dumb.

Don't ask such a stupid question.

[morgieb]

County Maps of I-594 and I-591

I-594 (Pro background checks)
]
Yes - 59.27%
No - 40.73%

I-591 (Anti background checks)

Yes - 44.73%
No - 55.27%

Asotin County continues to be an electoral enigma.

Why the hell does the same question asked differently have quite different percentages? Are voters really that dumb.

You do know that your sig has Abbott? I think you already know the answer to your question.

Are voters really that dumb.

Don't ask such a stupid question.

lol, touche.

[KingSweden]

The Stranger has gotten it's hands on an email from Ex-SoS Sam Reed apparently meant for fellow "mainstream Republicans" in which Reed states that he believes State Sen. Andy Hill will run against Jay Inslee in 2016.


For those unaware, Hill is a moderate Republican who currently holds a Redmond/Bellevue-based seat that went 58% for Obama in 2012. I'd essentially describe him as "Rob McKenna with a voting record"

Unlike Rob McKenna, he has not won two statewide campaigns. But also unlike Rob McKenna, there is probably no video of him cheerfully telling a Tea Party rally how awesome they are, and he can't run on suing over Obamacare. So there's that.

[smoltchanov]

Why not Steve Litzow? He seems to me at least as good as Hill.

[publicunofficial]

Why not Steve Litzow? He seems to me at least as good as Hill.

Might just be a matter of Litzow not wanting it, or at least not as much as Hill.

[KingSweden]

Why not Steve Litzow? He seems to me at least as good as Hill.

Might just be a matter of Litzow not wanting it, or at least not as much as Hill.

Litzow would make a great Governor, at least among Republicans. Part of it may be that he'd have to give up his Senate seat to run (if I remember correctly, he's in the cycle elected same years as Gov and Pres)

[Maxwell]

Washington dems, would Inslee be at all vulnerable? It seems Washington Republicans view him as vulnerable if they're pursuing Hill as hard as they are.

[KingSweden]

Washington dems, would Inslee be at all vulnerable? It seems Washington Republicans view him as vulnerable if they're pursuing Hill as hard as they are.

Probably not. Dem Governors always seem more vulnerable than they actually are.

[Sumner 1868]

Washington dems, would Inslee be at all vulnerable? It seems Washington Republicans view him as vulnerable if they're pursuing Hill as hard as they are.

The GOP is simply too unpopular after Bush and some earlier things to win the governorship. Inslee's unpopularity won't be a factor, just as Gregoire was reelected with approval ratings in the low thirties.

[smoltchanov]

Washington dems, would Inslee be at all vulnerable? It seems Washington Republicans view him as vulnerable if they're pursuing Hill as hard as they are.

The GOP is simply too unpopular after Bush and some earlier things to win the governorship. Inslee's unpopularity won't be a factor, just as Gregoire was reelected with approval ratings in the low thirties.

Washington elects governors in Presidential years, so  - probably yes. But i am reasonably sure McKenna would beat Inslee in 2014 or 2010. Just as Rauner beat Quinn or Hogan - Brown. If he got abput 48,5% in 2012 - he would win in these years.

[smoltchanov]

And one reuest for state gurus: i am living abroad now (and, probably, will be in foreseable future), so i am almost completely Internet-based as far as information is concerned. I am interested in opinions (objective) about ideological composition of freshmen in state legislature. Such information is not especially easy to find, and wait 2 years until someone, like Boris Shor, will update his legislative database is a long time. It seems to me, that Democratic politicians in the state (with glaring exceptions of Tim Sheldon and, may be, Christopher Hurst) are, generally, follow moderate-liberal to very liberal line, and that seems true about freshmen too, but i may be wrong. What about republican freshmen? I heard someone, like Melanie Stambaugh, be called "pro-choice moderate". Is it really so? In the past state has good numbers of reasonable moderate republicans, but, as in almost all states, they became much scarcer of recently, being pressed heavily by right-wingers.

[KingSweden]

And one reuest for state gurus: i am living abroad now (and, probably, will be in foreseable future), so i am almost completely Internet-based as far as information is concerned. I am interested in opinions (objective) about ideological composition of freshmen in state legislature. Such information is not especially easy to find, and wait 2 years until someone, like Boris Shor, will update his legislative database is a long time. It seems to me, that Democratic politicians in the state (with glaring exceptions of Tim Sheldon and, may be, Christopher Hurst) are, generally, follow moderate-liberal to very liberal line, and that seems true about freshmen too, but i may be wrong. What about republican freshmen? I heard someone, like Melanie Stambaugh, be called "pro-choice moderate". Is it really so? In the past state has good numbers of reasonable moderate republicans, but, as in almost all states, they became much scarcer of recently, being pressed heavily by right-wingers.

Melanie Stambaugh is definitely our most interesting new GOP freshman. Only 24 and a former local beauty queen, she's probably a name to keep eye on in the South King/Puyallup area. Not sure how familiar you are with geography, but that's roughly where WA-10 and WA-8 come together. Her future is probably at the state level, though. She'll probably be her LD's Senator within 5-10 years.

[smoltchanov]

And one reuest for state gurus: i am living abroad now (and, probably, will be in foreseable future), so i am almost completely Internet-based as far as information is concerned. I am interested in opinions (objective) about ideological composition of freshmen in state legislature. Such information is not especially easy to find, and wait 2 years until someone, like Boris Shor, will update his legislative database is a long time. It seems to me, that Democratic politicians in the state (with glaring exceptions of Tim Sheldon and, may be, Christopher Hurst) are, generally, follow moderate-liberal to very liberal line, and that seems true about freshmen too, but i may be wrong. What about republican freshmen? I heard someone, like Melanie Stambaugh, be called "pro-choice moderate". Is it really so? In the past state has good numbers of reasonable moderate republicans, but, as in almost all states, they became much scarcer of recently, being pressed heavily by right-wingers.

Melanie Stambaugh is definitely our most interesting new GOP freshman. Only 24 and a former local beauty queen, she's probably a name to keep eye on in the South King/Puyallup area. Not sure how familiar you are with geography, but that's roughly where WA-10 and WA-8 come together. Her future is probably at the state level, though. She'll probably be her LD's Senator within 5-10 years.

I know geography (including those of Washington state) fairly well, though, of course, not as good as local denizens do. Thanks for info, but what about other freshmen?

[Sumner 1868]

Washington dems, would Inslee be at all vulnerable? It seems Washington Republicans view him as vulnerable if they're pursuing Hill as hard as they are.

The GOP is simply too unpopular after Bush and some earlier things to win the governorship. Inslee's unpopularity won't be a factor, just as Gregoire was reelected with approval ratings in the low thirties.

Washington elects governors in Presidential years, so  - probably yes. But i am reasonably sure McKenna would beat Inslee in 2014 or 2010. Just as Rauner beat Quinn or Hogan - Brown. If he got abput 48,5% in 2012 - he would win in these years.

Not sure even about that. Dino Rossi's uninspiring margin in the 2010 senate race suggest the Democratic shift is fairly real.

And one reuest for state gurus: i am living abroad now (and, probably, will be in foreseable future), so i am almost completely Internet-based as far as information is concerned. I am interested in opinions (objective) about ideological composition of freshmen in state legislature. Such information is not especially easy to find, and wait 2 years until someone, like Boris Shor, will update his legislative database is a long time. It seems to me, that Democratic politicians in the state (with glaring exceptions of Tim Sheldon and, may be, Christopher Hurst) are, generally, follow moderate-liberal to very liberal line, and that seems true about freshmen too, but i may be wrong. What about republican freshmen? I heard someone, like Melanie Stambaugh, be called "pro-choice moderate". Is it really so? In the past state has good numbers of reasonable moderate republicans, but, as in almost all states, they became much scarcer of recently, being pressed heavily by right-wingers.

The East-West polarization has been expanding greatly since the 1994 elections, and thus the GOP is now heavily dependent on the anti-tax, anti-gun control anti-environmental voters in the Eastern Cascades. A rightward shift was the result.

[smoltchanov]

Thanks, i know that. But while vast majority of Democrats in Washington state are elected  from "west of Cascades" districts, many Republicans hail ftom the western part of the state too. It's them, who were of interest to me...

[Maxwell]

Washington dems, would Inslee be at all vulnerable? It seems Washington Republicans view him as vulnerable if they're pursuing Hill as hard as they are.

The GOP is simply too unpopular after Bush and some earlier things to win the governorship. Inslee's unpopularity won't be a factor, just as Gregoire was reelected with approval ratings in the low thirties.

To be fair, Gregoire was propped up by a very strong Democratic wave.