Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Pragmatic Conservative]

The Filling period has concluded

No Republican Candidate for Attorney General, however  Bob Ferguson will not run unopposed and will face off with  Libertarian Party candidate  Joshua B. Trumbull.

 Former Seattle City Councillor Tina Podlodowski will challenge incumbent Republican SOS Kim Wyman.

 Clint Didier is running again in District 4 against Congressman  Dan Newhouse

Here is the full list of Candidates https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/Candidates-Who-Have-Filed.aspx   

[Maxwell]

lol Clint Didier.

[publicunofficial]

Didier honestly should've just ran for Public Lands Commissioner again.

This honestly looks like the worst recruitment cycle for the WA GOP in a while. Their congressional recruits are total nobodies, they couldn't even find some random asshole to run against Bob Ferguson (After the right wing was outraged over that florist case), their top Lt. Gov recruit used to work as a mouthpiece for the Chinese government, and Patty Murry and Jay Inslee will cruise to re-election.

[smoltchanov]

So, Kim Wyman is their only hope? Good SoS, IMHO....

[Seattle]

Darcy Burner filed to run for the House in LD5 #2. Jason Ritchie, another failed WA-8 candidate is running against incumbent Jay Rodne (R) in LD5 #1. Lol

Failed WA-1 candidate, John Koster is running for the House in LD39 #2.

Will Steve Litzow finally be taken down?
Also, Chris Hurst is retiring, so R+1 right there in the House.

[smoltchanov]

IIRC -  Litzow is very moderate, so i wouldn't underestimate his chances...

[Alcon]

The children have voted!

https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/mock-election/#/results

They're #FeelingTheBern, and mostly want to Make America Great Again, plus they think John Kasich is a dork and they prefer Ben Carson, who is listed as a drop-out with no photo in the Voter's Guide.

[Alcon]

Devil's advocate to you non-voters:

The more people who vote in the primary, the more humiliatingly high the turnout will be vs. the caucus system, and the more pressure on the parties to scrap the terrible caucus system.  Voting is going to send more of a signal than not voting.

Plus, fun election results!  Don't you care about fun election results?!

[publicunofficial]

Devil's advocate to you non-voters:

The more people who vote in the primary, the more humiliatingly high the turnout will be vs. the caucus system, and the more pressure on the parties to scrap the terrible caucus system.  Voting is going to send more of a signal than not voting.

Plus, fun election results!  Don't you care about fun election results?!

Good point. Too bad the ballot is in the trash already.

[cwt]

Devil's advocate to you non-voters:

The more people who vote in the primary, the more humiliatingly high the turnout will be vs. the caucus system, and the more pressure on the parties to scrap the terrible caucus system.  Voting is going to send more of a signal than not voting.

Plus, fun election results!  Don't you care about fun election results?!

There's only one party in this state that still uses the caucus system, and it's not switching any time soon.

I agree, though. It's so easy to vote in this state, so why not do it?

[Alcon]

If any of you actually want to vote and replaced your ballot, you can actually print a ballot online and mail it in.  Just enter your data below and click "My Ballot":

https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/MyVote/

Devil's advocate to you non-voters:

The more people who vote in the primary, the more humiliatingly high the turnout will be vs. the caucus system, and the more pressure on the parties to scrap the terrible caucus system.  Voting is going to send more of a signal than not voting.

Plus, fun election results!  Don't you care about fun election results?!

There's only one party in this state that still uses the caucus system, and it's not switching any time soon.

I agree, though. It's so easy to vote in this state, so why not do it?

Eh, I'm not convinced the Democrats will never change.  There were considerable portions of the party moving for it before the disaster of the caucus system this year.  It's all too dependent on internal party nonsense, but the non-representative aspect of the caucus is the single most effective talking point in Democratic circles.  The higher the turnout in the non-binding primary, the stronger that argument gets.

[RI]

Some municipality results for my home county (Snohomish):

DEMS
Arlington: Clinton 51.16 - 48.36
Bothell: Clinton 53.55 - 46.16
Brier: Clinton 55.30 - 44.44
Edmonds: Clinton 59.99 - 39.71
Everett: Clinton 50.44 - 49.21
Lake Stevens: Sanders 51.03 - 48.61
Lynnwood: 54.39 - 45.10
Marysville: Sanders 50.71 - 49.00
Mill Creek: Clinton 59.98 - 39.76
Monroe: Sanders 52.71 - 46.97
Mountlake Terrace: Clinton 51.06 - 48.67
Mukilteo: Clinton 59.40 - 40.42
Snohomish: Sanders 51.98 - 47.43
Stanwood: Clinton 51.44 - 48.18
Tulalip: Clinton 54.56 - 45.02
Woodway: Clinton 71.90 - 26.80

GOP
Arlington: Trump 79.55 - Cruz 9.22 - Kasich 5.81
Bothell: Trump 70.67 - Kasich 14.17 - Cruz 8.61
Brier: Trump 67.25 - Cruz 13.19 - Kasich 11.87
Edmonds: Trump 67.42 - Kasich 17.56 - Cruz 9.48
Everett: Trump 75.16 - Cruz 10.08 - Kasich 8.51
Lake Stevens: Trump 75.58 - Cruz 9.94 - Kasich 8.23
Lynnwood: Trump 73.19 - Cruz 11.31 - Kasich 8.45
Marysville: Trump 77.26 - Cruz 9.85 - Kasich 6.64
Mill Creek: Trump 69.18 - Kasich 16.19 - Cruz 9.46
Monroe: Trump 72.38 - Cruz 13.63 - Kasich 7.24
Mountlake Terrace: Trump 69.93 - Cruz 14.41 - Kasich 10.14
Mukilteo: Trump 70.85 - Kasich 13.92 - Cruz 9.69
Snohomish: Trump 70.65 - Cruz 12.46 - Kasich 10.41
Stanwood: Trump 73.68 - Cruz 10.53 - Kasich 10.16
Tulalip: Trump 82.87 - Kasich 7.34 - Cruz 5.81
Woodway: Trump 73.05 - Kasich 16.31 - Cruz 7.09

[RI]

Some other results:

Whitman County
Pullman: Sanders 53.26 - 46.74 / Trump 60.65 - Kasich 18.04 - Cruz 14.15 - Carson 7.15
Colfax: Sanders 62.50 - 37.50 / Trump 74.73 - Cruz 11.54 - Carson 8.24 - Kasich 5.49

Thurston County
Olympia: Sanders 54.22 - 45.78 / Trump 70.53 - Kasich 15.58 - Cruz 10.37
Lacey: Clinton 57.64 - 42.36 / Trump 70.37 - Kasich 13.35 - Cruz 11.85
Tumwater: Sanders 50.02 - 49.98 / Trump 73.98 - Kasich 12.68 - Cruz 9.71

Island County
Oak Harbor: Clinton 50.27 - 49.73 / Trump 66.83 - Cruz 17.51 - Kasich 11.40
Camano Island: Clinton 59.22 - 40.78 / Trump 70.90 - Cruz 12.94 - Kasich 12.73

Skagit County
Anacortes: Clinton 51.66 - 48.34 / Trump 75.14 - Kasich 13.40 - Cruz 8.42
Burlington: Sanders 51.20 - 48.80 / Trump 80.97 - Kasich 7.40 - Cruz 7.19
Mount Vernon: Clinton 50.44 - 49.56 / Trump 77.21 - Kasich 10.19 - Cruz 7.85
Sedro-Wooley: Sanders 54.77 - 45.23 / Trump 79.51 - Cruz 12.06 - Kasich 5.38

Jefferson County
Port Townsend: Sanders 58.60 - 41.40 / Trump 74.39 - Kasich 15.65 - Cruz 5.69
Port Ludlow: Clinton 61.55 - 38.45 / Trump 76.08 - Kasich 15.16 - Cruz 5.10

Clallam County
Port Angeles: Sanders 52.95 - 47.05 / Trump 78.12 - Kasich 9.22 - Cruz 7.76
Sequim: Clinton 55.65 - 44.35 / Trump 73.81 - Kasich 10.72 - Cruz 8.90 - Carson 6.57
Forks: Sanders 55.63 - 44.37 / Trump 77.98 - Cruz 12.39 - Kasich 5.50

[publicunofficial]

Some other results:

Clallam County
Sequim: Clinton 55.65 - 44.35

[Alcon]

OK, this is kind of fascinating.  So far, the partisanship of ballots is nearly identical to the 2008 Presidential primary -- actually very slightly more Democratic, 57.5% vs. 56.6% (+0.9%).  That's impressive, considering that the 2008 primary actually counted a little bit on the Democratic side.

However, what's even more impressive is how unevenly distributed the changes are in partisanship since 2008.  Here are the counties, sorted from biggest gain in % Democratic to biggest loss.  This is obviously far from random variation.  (Also, King County will probably get even higher as left-leaning late ballots are counted.)

[to get swing in Atlas terms, double all these numbers]

King   +6.4%
San Juan   +3.9%
Jefferson   +3.8%
Kitsap   +2.2%
Island   +0.7%
Benton   +0.4%
Clark   +0.1%
Snohomish   +0.1%
Clallam   -0.1%
Whatcom   -0.5%
Skagit   -1.0%
Spokane   -1.2%
Chelan   -1.4%
Franklin   -2.1%
Thurston   -2.1%
Skamania   -2.4%
Walla Walla   -3.5%
Whitman   -3.5%
Klickitat   -4.1%
Pierce   -4.4%
Okanogan   -4.9%
Kittitas   -5.1%
Ferry   -5.7%
Pend Oreille   -6.0%
Stevens   -6.0%
Mason   -6.6%
Grant   -7.0%
Columbia   -7.4%
Douglas   -7.6%
Lewis   -7.8%
Wahkiakum   -8.0%
Garfield   -8.1%
Yakima   -8.2%
Adams   -8.6%
Cowlitz   -8.9%
Asotin   -9.2%
Pacific   -11.1%
Grays Harbor   -11.5%
Lincoln   -12.4%

[RI]

Seems fairly correlated with Trump's vote share, though not exclusively.

EDIT: R-squared of .38, but Garfield County is a big outlier. Remove it, and the R-squared jumps to .55

[Alcon]

Seems fairly correlated with Trump's vote share, though not exclusively.

EDIT: R-squared of .38, but Garfield County is a big outlier. Remove it, and the R-squared jumps to .55

I would also guess a strong correlation with income and especially education.  That's what I think seeing Benton up there, for instance.  It also looks like socially liberal areas that aren't upscale (like Jefferson) saw gains.  There is definitely some systemic primary crossover going on vs. 2008.

For instance: I looked back at 2008, and Bainbridge Island was 73.8% Democratic in the primary.  That was with Obama getting his second-highest share of the primary vote of any city in the state.  This year, Bainbridge is 81.0% Democratic.  Plus Kasich got 27.6% there, and I'd bet some of those voters are less than loyal.

The Eastside is probably going to be nasty for Trump.  On the other hand, it looks like working-class white areas with ancestral Democratic voting (the Coast, Kelso-Longview, Clarkston) are exhibiting significant D crossover to Trump.

[Alcon]

King County partisanship


Clinton vs. Sanders (Clinton in blue, Sanders red)

[cwt]

 That's impressive, considering that the 2008 primary actually counted a little bit on the Democratic side.

It was also a beauty contest.

I remember voting for Ron Paul in that election, only because the Democratic primary was meaningless.

[ottermax]

King County really looks like it is almost all Democratic. Traditional Republican strongholds like Sammamish and even Maple Valley / Covington look like the majority of voters were Democrats... really goes to show how much King County has transformed.

[Alcon]

 That's impressive, considering that the 2008 primary actually counted a little bit on the Democratic side.

It was also a beauty contest.

I remember voting for Ron Paul in that election, only because the Democratic primary was meaningless.

sorry, I wrote that wrong: I meant to say because the Republican primary actually counted this time, so this time it was even more more-relevant than the D primary.  I just inverted when I meant to write, because I'm a dumbass.

[RI]

Just waiting on Wahkiakum County and then I can make some statewide precinct maps for the presidential primaries

[RI]

[Alcon]

^ Great maps!  And you obviously had more success getting results out of Wahkiakum County than I have...but I've mostly got non-suppressed results out of the rest (just waiting on Whitman), so here they are:

For cities with 25+ voters:

% Clinton
Hunts Point - 90.70%
Yarrow Point - 77.95%
South Prairie - 77.78%
Clyde Hill - 75.22%
Medina - 75.00%
Mercer Island - 73.22%
LaCrosse - 70.83%
Woodway - 70.44%
Beaux Arts Village - 68.75%
Warden - 68.18%

Rich people and some random farm towns with old populations.

% Sanders
Skykomish - 74.36%
Tonasket - 73.27%
Marcus - 69.23%
Index - 68.89%
Springdale - 68.00%
Friday Harbor - 67.43%
Everson - 66.15%
Rockford - 65.71%
Vader - 65.52%
Cheney - 65.25%

A mix of hippies and working-class rural towns with some hippie leanings, plus Cheney (Eastern Washington University).  Everson in Whatcom County's conservative Nooksack Valley is interesting...I'm not sure why it was so pro-Sanders when Lynden barely voted for him.

% Trump
Lyman - 95.74%
Pe Ell - 95.05%
Hamilton - 93.75%
Rock Island - 93.18%
Springdale - 92.86%
South Prairie - 92.45%
Kittitas - 91.14%
Mansfield - 89.39%
Creston - 89.19%
Pateros - 88.57%

A bunch of small, working-class towns.  Almost all are super-white.  Most of the more Hispanic towns weren't this pro-Trump, probably because of the few Hispanic Republicans.

% Kasich
Beaux Arts Village - 37.50%
Clyde Hill - 28.65%
Bainbridge Island - 27.24%
Medina - 26.38%
Mercer Island - 25.14%
Yarrow Point - 25.00%
Langley - 23.38%
Ruston - 22.73%
Seattle - 22.38%
Hunts Point - 22.06%

Rich/educated voters and those living around a lot of liberals.

Cruz
Prescott - 22.45%
Everson - 20.91%
Pomeroy - 20.80%
Garfield - 20.00%
Hartline - 19.44%
Latah - 19.44%
Colton - 19.23%
Royal City - 18.92%
Sumas - 18.75%
Bingen - 18.60%

I guess these places all seem like they'd have a lot of conservative religious voters.  Otherwise, I'm not sure how to distinguish these areas from the above list.  Cruz also did really well on military bases.

Carson
Almost certainly all statistical noise in very small towns, except in College Place (12.83%), which has a Seventh-Day Adventist college.

% Democratic
Nespelem - 93.10%
Mabton - 89.57%
Seattle - 87.62%
Mattawa - 86.96%
Port Townsend - 85.96%
Wapato - 85.14%
Langley - 85.11%
Bainbridge Island - 80.03%
Lake Forest Park - 77.91%
Shoreline - 76.65%

Seattle and its inner suburbs, plus hippie towns, Hispanics, and Native Americans.

% Republican
Krupp - 7.96%
Hartline - 16.28%
Coulee City - 19.53%
Washtucna - 20.27%
Mansfield - 21.43%
Prescott - 22.22%
St. John - 22.54%
Starbuck - 23.08%
Odessa - 23.41%
Lynden - 23.45%

Small towns, mostly agriculture-dependent.  #1 Krupp is the smallest town in the state, in fact.

[RI]

Anyone else vote in the primary yet?

My ballot
Senator: Mohammad Said (D)
Representative (WA-05): Dave Wilson (I)
Governor: Bill Bryant (R)
Lt. Governor: Steve Hobbs (D)
Secretary of State: Kim Wyman (R)
State Treasurer: Marko Liias (D)
State Auditor: Mark Miloscia (R)
Attorney General: Joshua Trumbull (L)
CPL: Hilary Franz (D)
SPI: Erin Jones
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler (D)
State Rep (LD-09): Mary Dye (R)
Supreme Court: Barbara Madsen