Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Seattle]

The 7th will have to shrink considerably. Probably means it'll lose it's appendage in Snohomish County.
The 2nd, 5th, 6th and 10th will all probably have to expand, uncertain about the 4th. The 1, 7, 8, 9 for sure will shrink, perhaps the 3rd too.

What I really wonder about is if the commission will continue the "minority-majority" and what that means for the 7th and it's relationship for central and southeastern Seattle.

[Alcon]

The legislative map could be pretty crazy, though.  There are so many Seattle-area LDs that are growing above state average, and not many growing far enough below state average to "absorb" those new registrants from neighboring high-growth areas.  There could be some fun, weird shifting.

[KingSweden]

The legislative map could be pretty crazy, though.  There are so many Seattle-area LDs that are growing above state average, and not many growing far enough below state average to "absorb" those new registrants from neighboring high-growth areas.  There could be some fun, weird shifting.

I think many of the non-Tri Cities EWA districts get considerably larger, particularly the ones in the north and southeast of the state. The border counties are flat if not shrinking. It'll be really interesting to see the effects in the Vancouver area, too, and if a district that could elect Latinos emerges in Yakima rather than a split designed to elect Republicans.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.

[smoltchanov]

Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.

Probably - no. Reichert will, of course, overperform, but Washington (Seattle and it's suburbs especially) became too instinctively Democratic. If McKenna couldn't win in 2012, and Wyman and Litzov (both - more moderate then Reichert, and pro-choice to boot) are both very seriously endangered this year -  then i have serious doubts about him.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.

Probably - no. Reichert will, of course, overperform, but Washington (Seattle and it's suburbs especially) became too instinctively Democratic. If McKenna couldn't win in 2012, and Wyman and Litzov (both - more moderate then Reichert, and pro-choice to boot) are both very seriously endangered this year -  then i have serious doubts about him.

Wyman should survive given her first round victory, although anything's possible.

[smoltchanov]

Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.

Probably - no. Reichert will, of course, overperform, but Washington (Seattle and it's suburbs especially) became too instinctively Democratic. If McKenna couldn't win in 2012, and Wyman and Litzov (both - more moderate then Reichert, and pro-choice to boot) are both very seriously endangered this year -  then i have serious doubts about him.

Wyman should survive given her first round victory, although anything's possible.

May be. And even Litzov - can. But both are clearly living on borrowed time, and even if they win - i doubt that they will run in 2020. Hague (another moderate) was defeated for King county council recently quite decisively...

[KingSweden]

Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.

Probably - no. Reichert will, of course, overperform, but Washington (Seattle and it's suburbs especially) became too instinctively Democratic. If McKenna couldn't win in 2012, and Wyman and Litzov (both - more moderate then Reichert, and pro-choice to boot) are both very seriously endangered this year -  then i have serious doubts about him.

Wyman should survive given her first round victory, although anything's possible.

May be. And even Litzov - can. But both are clearly living on borrowed time, and even if they win - i doubt that they will run in 2020. Hague (another moderate) was defeated for King county council recently quite decisively...

Unfortunately I think Litzow goes down this year. I do think Wyman holds on, however.

[smoltchanov]

Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.

Probably - no. Reichert will, of course, overperform, but Washington (Seattle and it's suburbs especially) became too instinctively Democratic. If McKenna couldn't win in 2012, and Wyman and Litzov (both - more moderate then Reichert, and pro-choice to boot) are both very seriously endangered this year -  then i have serious doubts about him.

Wyman should survive given her first round victory, although anything's possible.

May be. And even Litzov - can. But both are clearly living on borrowed time, and even if they win - i doubt that they will run in 2020. Hague (another moderate) was defeated for King county council recently quite decisively...

Unfortunately I think Litzow goes down this year. I do think Wyman holds on, however.

We will see. Depends both on turnout and whether Litzow will be able to get vast majority of vote, which went for Libertarian candidate in August..

[Alaska2392]

Just as a summary - here are the results from KOMO News/Strategies 360 poll that are NOT for the presidential race:

Senate:  Murray 57% - Vance 36% - Undecided 6%
Governor:  Inslee 50% - Bryant 40% - Undecided 8%
Measure 1433 (Increase Min Wage and Sick Leave):  Yes 62% - No 37% - Undecided 2%
Measure 1491 (Gun initiative): Yes 79% - No 17% - Undecided 4%
Measure 732 (Carbon Tax): Yes 42% - No 37% - Undecided 21%  (!!)

Also:

King County Presidential Results:  Clinton 62% - Trump 18% - Johnson 10% - Stein 3% - Undecided 3%

[Ebowed]

What is the status of write-ins?  If I write-in Marko Liias for State Treasurer, would that get counted?  (Is there a prominent, capable candidate accepting write-ins for that office?)

[Alcon]

What is the status of write-ins?  If I write-in Marko Liias for State Treasurer, would that get counted?  (Is there a prominent, capable candidate accepting write-ins for that office?)

It would get tabulated by the automated system, and show up on the election reports, but on a technical level it's a "rejected" write-in.  There's a Bernie guy named Eric Miller running as a Democratic write-in.  That's about all I know.

[Ebowed]

What is the status of write-ins?  If I write-in Marko Liias for State Treasurer, would that get counted?  (Is there a prominent, capable candidate accepting write-ins for that office?)

It would get tabulated by the automated system, and show up on the election reports, but on a technical level it's a "rejected" write-in.  There's a Bernie guy named Eric Miller running as a Democratic write-in.  That's about all I know.

Thanks!

[publicunofficial]

Voted today!

President/Vice-President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine

Senator: Patty Murray
Representative: Derek Kilmer

Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt. Governor: Cyrus Habib
Sec. of State: Tina Podlodowski
Atty. General: Bob Ferguson
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Public Lands Commissioner: Hillary Franz
Superintendent: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Commissioner: Mike Kreidler

State Senator: Kevin Van De Wege
State Rep., Position 1: Mike Chapman
State Rep., Position 2: Steve Tharinger

Supreme Court:
Mary Yu, Barbara Madsen, Charlie Wiggins, Erik Rohrer

Superior Court:
Brian Coughenour, Christopher Melly

I-1433 (Minimum Wage): Yes
I-1464 (Campaign Finance): Yes
I-1491 (Guns): Yes
I-1501 (Senior abuse): No
I-732 (Carbon Tax): Yes
I-735 (Amendment proposal): Yes

[RI]

Why did you vote no on I-1501?

[Alcon]

Why did you vote no on I-1501?

It's basically a move by SEIU to exclude their home caregivers from public information requests that conservatives (the Freedom Foundation) have been using to contact the caregivers and let them know they don't have to be in SEIU.  This would be a fairly arbitrary exemption from public disclosure; others who are paid by the state for professional services are subject to disclosure laws.  It's kind of rare to see the Seattle Times, Stranger and Seattle Weekly all land on the same side of an issue with the same reasoning, but that's why they all endorsed No.

[publicunofficial]

Why did you vote no on I-1501?

Bad law disguised as saving grandma from abuse.

[evergreenarbor]

My ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: Yes
I-732: Yes
I-735: Yes

President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
Senate: Patty Murray
US Representative (CD-2): Tyler Vega (write-in; I don't like Larsen but Larsen will win anyway)

Governor: Jay Inslee
Lieutenant Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
Commissioner of Public Lands: Hillary Franz
Superintendent of Public Instruction: Erin Jones
Insurance Commissioner: Mike Kreidler

State Senator (District 40): Kevin Ranker
State Representatives (District 40): Write-ins (both are running unopposed)

Supreme Court: Yu, Madsen, Wiggins

[RI]

Most of my ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: No
I-1491: No
I-1501: Yes
I-732: No
I-735: Yes

US Senator: Chris Vance
US Representative: Joe Pakootas
Governor: Bill Bryant
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Kim Wyman
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Auditor: Mark Miloscia
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Steve McLaughlin
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

State Sen: Write-in
State Rep: Mary Dye

Supreme Court: DeWolf, Madsen, Wiggins
Court of Appeals: Fearing

[Alaska2392]

My ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: No
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes
I-735: Yes

President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
Senate: Patty Murray
US Representative (CD-7): Brady Walkinshaw (I think there is <40% chance he wins, but you never know)

Governor: Jay Inslee
Lieutenant Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: BLANK
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
Commissioner of Public Lands: Hillary Franz
Superintendent of Public Instruction: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Commissioner: Mike Kreidler

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Jayapal and/or Teachout is elected, the dems need to make it clear that they are not welcome due to their socialist views. Don't put them on any committees period and endorse a high profile primary challenger for 2018. Tell primary voters that if they don't vote for this challenger, that they are a highly dangerous traitor to the party and to the country that should go beg the local police to punish them for their actuon

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

If Jayapal and/or Teachout is elected, the dems need to make it clear that they are not welcome due to their socialist views. Don't put them on any committees period and endorse a high profile primary challenger for 2018. Tell primary voters that if they don't vote for this challenger, that they are a highly dangerous traitor to the party and to the country that should go beg the local police to punish them for their actuon

and why exactly do you want the Democratic party to deny voters their democratic choice of representative?

Why that sounds positively... communistic

[publicunofficial]

If Jayapal and/or Teachout is elected, the dems need to make it clear that they are not welcome due to their socialist views. Don't put them on any committees period and endorse a high profile primary challenger for 2018. Tell primary voters that if they don't vote for this challenger, that they are a highly dangerous traitor to the party and to the country that should go beg the local police to punish them for their actuon

Wulfric, please shut up forever.

[windjammer]

Guys by the way, regarding the WA state senate and WA state house, your predictions?

[Seattle]

Ds hold the House and win back the Senate, though it'll be close. Trump is just too toxic and there really aren't any competitive state-wide races to bring out people to vote.

Here's a good overview from Crosscut on the tossup races. They don't actually give any predictions, but they do identify the competitive districts: http://features.crosscut.com/washington-state-districts-control-olympia-legislature-election-2016

Also: 135k ballots have been returned so far, or 3.8% of registered voters. Any idea why Island County has already a 15.9% return rate?