Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[RI]

After sitting on it a week, I finally filled out the Presidential portion of my ballot and sent it off... My wife and I both wrote-in Michael Maturen. So that's one fewer Obama voter and one fewer Romney voter going for a major party candidate.

[Crumpets]

My ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes - This was one of my toughest choices.
I-735: Yes
R-8210: Approved
King County Charter Amendments 1 and 2: Yes

US President/Vice President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Pramila Jayapal - Last minute decision, I'd be happy with either.
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

Justice Position 1: Mary Yu
Justice Position 5: Barbara Madsen
Justice Position 6: Charlie Wiggins
Judge Position 14: Nicole Gaines Phelps
Judge Position 26: David Keenan
Judge Position 31: Helen Halpert
Judge Position 44: Cathy Moore
Judge Position 52: Anthony Gipe
Judge Position 53: Marianne Spearman

Seattle I-124: Yes
Seattle Prop 1: Yes

[mds32]

My ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes - This was one of my toughest choices.
I-735: Yes
R-8210: Approved
King County Charter Amendments 1 and 2: Yes

US President/Vice President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Pramila Jayapal - Last minute decision, I'd be happy with either.
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

Justice Position 1: Mary Yu
Justice Position 5: Barbara Madsen
Justice Position 6: Charlie Wiggins
Judge Position 14: Nicole Gaines Phelps
Judge Position 26: David Keenan
Judge Position 31: Helen Halpert
Judge Position 44: Cathy Moore
Judge Position 52: Anthony Gipe
Judge Position 53: Marianne Spearman

Seattle I-124: Yes
Seattle Prop 1: Yes

Can I ask why Duane Davidson rather than the other GOPer?

[publicunofficial]

My ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes - This was one of my toughest choices.
I-735: Yes
R-8210: Approved
King County Charter Amendments 1 and 2: Yes

US President/Vice President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Pramila Jayapal - Last minute decision, I'd be happy with either.
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

Justice Position 1: Mary Yu
Justice Position 5: Barbara Madsen
Justice Position 6: Charlie Wiggins
Judge Position 14: Nicole Gaines Phelps
Judge Position 26: David Keenan
Judge Position 31: Helen Halpert
Judge Position 44: Cathy Moore
Judge Position 52: Anthony Gipe
Judge Position 53: Marianne Spearman

Seattle I-124: Yes
Seattle Prop 1: Yes

Can I ask why Duane Davidson rather than the other GOPer?

Can't speak for Boko, but Davidson seems to have less of a partisan agenda than Waite, who wants to get rid of the capital gains tax. Davidson seems like he'll focus on doing his job rather than spouting GOP talking points.

[Crumpets]

My ballot:

I-1433: Yes
I-1464: Yes
I-1491: Yes
I-1501: No
I-732: Yes - This was one of my toughest choices.
I-735: Yes
R-8210: Approved
King County Charter Amendments 1 and 2: Yes

US President/Vice President: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine
US Senator: Patty Murray
US Representative: Pramila Jayapal - Last minute decision, I'd be happy with either.
Governor: Jay Inslee
Lt Governor: Cyrus Habib
Secretary of State: Tina Podlodowski
Treasurer: Duane Davidson
Auditor: Pat McCarthy
Attorney General: Bob Ferguson
CPL: Hillary Franz
SPI: Chris Reykdal
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler

Justice Position 1: Mary Yu
Justice Position 5: Barbara Madsen
Justice Position 6: Charlie Wiggins
Judge Position 14: Nicole Gaines Phelps
Judge Position 26: David Keenan
Judge Position 31: Helen Halpert
Judge Position 44: Cathy Moore
Judge Position 52: Anthony Gipe
Judge Position 53: Marianne Spearman

Seattle I-124: Yes
Seattle Prop 1: Yes

Can I ask why Duane Davidson rather than the other GOPer?

Can't speak for Boko, but Davidson seems to have less of a partisan agenda than Waite, who wants to get rid of the capital gains tax. Davidson seems like he'll focus on doing his job rather than spouting GOP talking points.

I just went with the Stranger's endorsement on that one. I assumed they would go for the relatively saner one.

[Seattle]

State Senator Andy Hill (R-Redmond), also the GOP's chief budget writer, passed today from lung cancer at the age of 54. RIP, he was a decent guy and a competent legislator. He represented a fairly D-leaning district.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/

[mds32]

State Senator Andy Hill (R-Redmond), also the GOP's chief budget writer, passed today from lung cancer at the age of 54. RIP, he was a decent guy and a competent legislator. He represented a fairly D-leaning district.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/

So a special election will occur in the following year with the GOP being allowed to appoint a successor until then?

[publicunofficial]

State Senator Andy Hill (R-Redmond), also the GOP's chief budget writer, passed today from lung cancer at the age of 54. RIP, he was a decent guy and a competent legislator. He represented a fairly D-leaning district.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/

So a special election will occur in the following year with the GOP being allowed to appoint a successor until then?

Correct. Sure to be a competitive race.

[KingSweden]

State Senator Andy Hill (R-Redmond), also the GOP's chief budget writer, passed today from lung cancer at the age of 54. RIP, he was a decent guy and a competent legislator. He represented a fairly D-leaning district.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/

Jeez! RIP

[KingSweden]

State Senator Andy Hill (R-Redmond), also the GOP's chief budget writer, passed today from lung cancer at the age of 54. RIP, he was a decent guy and a competent legislator. He represented a fairly D-leaning district.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-andy-hill-dies-of-lung-cancer/

So a special election will occur in the following year with the GOP being allowed to appoint a successor until then?

Correct. Sure to be a competitive race.

It'll be really, really competitive. Downtown Kirkland, fast-growing Redmond suburbs, the "old eastside" with Duvall and Sammamish... should be interesting.

[publicunofficial]

My home of Clallam County is currently one of the closest margins in the nation. Trump leads by 8 votes, 13,741 to 13,733.

I certainly would have never guessed it to vote to the left of Grays Harbor county. Doesn't seem to have dragged down local Democrats at all however. Derek Kilmer got 62% of the vote in CD-06, and all 3 Democrats in LD-24 won by similar margins as well.
 

Also, anyone notice Patty Murray put up amazing numbers in Eastern WA? She won Whitman, Spokane, and most surprisingly Walla Walla counties.

[cwt]

Here is how Western and Eastern WA were split (as of 11/11/16):

	Clinton	Trump	Other	Margin
Western WA	58.97	34.27	6.76	Clinton +24.7
Eastern WA	37.72	55.38	6.90	Trump +17.66
Total	54.94	38.27	6.79	Clinton +16.67

[Seattle]

Looking towards the legislature:

There are still some 600k votes left to be counted, so results can still be swayed (particularly in King(200k)/Pierce(90k)/Snohomish(80k)).

House:
Ds are currently at a very tenuous +1. It could shift to no net change or even up to +4.

Of particular note, LD30 (Federal Way) just voted out both of its incumbent Rs, so D+2 there. R+1 in nearby LD31 (rural farms of King and Pierce), where longtime "independent D" incumbent Chris Hurst retired.

LD19, on the coast, swung massively to Trump. He most likely won this traditionally conservadem district. Anyway, Dean Takko upgraded to the senate and so his house seat was left open. It's currently a D hold, but oh so barely. Teresa Purcell (D) leads by 83 votes. Takko and the other D incumbent, Blake, won easily, but under-performed.

Then we have LD5 (Issaquah, North Bend, Snoqualmie), where both house seats are very close, Jay Rodne (R, inc) leads Jason Ritchie (D) by 3%, though Ritchie originally lead. Idk where the votes are in this district, but its not likely this will flip. Graves (R) leads Burner (D) in the open seat by 5.5%.

Finally, there's R-held, open seats in LD17 (newly annexed Vancouver and other PDX suburbs), where Vicki Craft (R) leads Sam Kim (Independent D) by 3%.

Senate
Litzow finally succumbed to the fundamentals of LD41 (Mercer Island, Bellevue, Sammamish), that most likely will have voted D+40 for Clinton. Lisa Wellman (D) leads by 5.5%.

Chad Magendanz (R), tried to upgrade his LD5 house position, but it looks like he's fallen short and trails incumbent Mark Mullet (D)by 2.5%.

The only other really competitive race is in LD28 (parts of Tacoma, Lakewood, JBLM), where incumbent Steve O'Ban (R) leads Marisa Peloquin (D) by 6%.

So D+1, but also keep in mind, I think the Ds will also pick up Andy Hill's seat, which won't be very competitive with a Trump presidency (another district that voted massively for Clinton).

[KingSweden]

It's tIke to stop trying to make Darcy Burner happen. It's not gonna happen.

[Maxwell]

you mean to tell me Litzlow survived a D+40 district for a long time? wow that's impressive.

[Seattle]

you mean to tell me Litzlow survived a D+40 district for a long time? wow that's impressive.

Not quite, more like D+25 (I think it was 62-36 Obama?). This year it'll likely be a D+35 to D+40 district. King county is currently voting 72-21 (!!!) for Clinton (was 69-29 in 2012), and this seat is the epicenter of wealthy, educated Rs abandoning Trump.

[Alcon]

Republicans have gained since, but Litzow's district was D+44 on Election Night.  Absolute shellacking in the Seattle suburbs this year.  There's a <10% Republican precinct in Redmond.  Hunts Point was a Clinton lead.

Seattle itself was 88.07%-8.10% Clinton (!).  Even Laurelhurst was under 10% Trump in early returns.  Broadmoor Country Club, the city's last remaining Republican bastion, was voting 67-26% Clinton.

It's amazing to think there are counties in the Midwest with 40-point swings toward Trump, all while he loses his crap in places like the Eastside.

[Seattle]

My goodness, Litzow is losing by 5.5%, meanwhile LD41 is voting 68.5-25 Clinton, that's stunning.

[smoltchanov]

^ That's why i would theoretically prefer Litzow to survive instead of much less talented (and more ideologically "pure") Republicans in other areas. The fact that he could hold for so long in such hostile area tells about big political talent and quite sane views...

[Fuzzybigfoot]

The only two counties that voted for McGovern in '72 went for Trump by 5%+ each (Grey's Harbor and Pacific).  If Kurt Cobain wasn't spinning in his grave before, he is now. 

[Alcon]

The current Presidential map

[smoltchanov]

The only two counties that voted for McGovern in '72 went for Trump by 5%+ each (Grey's Harbor and Pacific).  If Kurt Cobain wasn't spinning in his grave before, he is now.  

Not only him. FDR - too. White blue collar voters were his staple, a main source of support. Now Democratic party is a party of "coastal elite" - New York's Upper East side, Beverly Hills, and so on. Not surprising that Trump (as much as i abhor him) understood that... As long as LGBT issues trump "bread and butter" - we will have an idiocy like this year. Party deserved it's fate...

[Seattle]

Alcon, I'm excited for your or realisticidealist's maps.

Some early observations: I'm surprised Port Orchard and Woodway voted for Trump. Also, I don't think Obama ever did as well as Clinton around Gig Harbor/Pierce County part of the Kitsap Peninsula.

It's hard to tell, but did Clinton manage to carry Monroe?

[Alcon]

Alcon, I'm excited for your or realisticidealist's maps.

Some early observations: I'm surprised Port Orchard and Woodway voted for Trump. Also, I don't think Obama ever did as well as Clinton around Gig Harbor/Pierce County part of the Kitsap Peninsula.

It's hard to tell, but did Clinton manage to carry Monroe?

Clinton carried the second Woodway precinct in a landslide...she just seems to have gotten really unlucky in the southern one.  Woodway was 54-37 Clinton overall.

Monroe was 44-43 Clinton.  There's more ballots to be counted, but she should narrowly carry it.

Port Orchard is interesting.  The new subdivisions voted Trump pretty solidly, while the older part of town swung toward him.  It would have been a solider Trump win, but he only tied the normally-GOP McCormick Woods, the huge golf course development that was annexed a few years back.  Kitsap County would have swung Trump by a few points, but he totally lost his crap in the north end of the county.  Bainbridge Island fell from 23% Romney to 14% Trump.

And, yeah, Clinton beat Obama's margins around Gig Harbor.  The Key Peninsula (the landform to the west of the Gig Harbor Peninsula) swung a good bit toward Trump, though.  Not a surprise.  That's a reflection of the socioeconomics of the area.  Rural Gig Harbor has a lot of affluent commuters, while the Key Peninsula has a lot of folks in trailers and the like.

[RI]

Initial Snohomish County results
Arlington: Trump 51.2, Clinton 37.9, Johnson 5.8, WI 3.5
Bothell: Clinton: 59.0, Trump 30.6, Johnson 5.5, WI 2.9
Brier: Clinton 57.5, Trump 31.9, Johnson 5.6, WI 3.0
Edmonds: Clinton 64.9, Trump 25.7, Johnson 4.1, WI 3.2
Everett: Clinton 56.7, Trump 32.2, Johnson 4.8, WI 3.2, Stein 2.2
Granite Falls: Trump 47.9, Clinton 38.3, Johnson 6.6, WI 3.6
Lake Stevens: Clinton 46.5, Trump 41.1, Johnson 6.2, WI 3.6
Lynnwood: Clinton 62.3, Trump 28.1, Johnson 4.3, WI 2.4
Marysville: Trump 44.7, Clinton 43.3, Johnson 6.2, WI 3.2
Mill Creek: Clinton 57.1, Trump 33.5, Johnson 4.7, WI 3.0
Monroe: Clinton 44.3, Trump 42.6, Johnson 6.4, WI 3.7
Mountlake Terrace: Clinton 67.0, Trump 22.9, Johnson 4.8, WI 2.7
Mukilteo: Clinton 60.2, Trump 30.6, Johnson 4.6, WI 3.0
Snohomish: Clinton 48.9, Trump 38.2, Johnson 6.2, WI 3.7, Stein 2.1
Stanwood: Trump 48.3, Clinton 39.6, Johnson 5.7, WI 4.0
Sultan: Trump 49.2, Clinton 36.1, Johnson 7.6, WI 3.6, Stein 2.5
Tulalip: Clinton 54.5, Trump 38.1, Johnson 3.6
Woodway: Clinton 53.6, Trump 37.1, Johnson 5.1, WI 3.4