Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 836959 times)
smoltchanov
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« Reply #5025 on: November 16, 2016, 03:02:46 PM »

I think the only person the Rs could run and win with is King County Council member Kathy Lambert. I have no idea if she would want to, considering she left the state house for her current position.

She is substantially more conservative then Hill, so i have some doubts...
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Seattle
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« Reply #5026 on: November 16, 2016, 03:40:50 PM »

I agree, but that's their only bench. Though I guess Hill was non-political before he ran.

Are there any precincts in Seattle with 0 votes for Trump? Probably not, but I wonder...
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5027 on: November 16, 2016, 04:47:27 PM »

I think the only person the Rs could run and win with is King County Council member Kathy Lambert. I have no idea if she would want to, considering she left the state house for her current position.

Probably just go with a moderate businessman and just hope Eastsiders are still willing to give Republicans a chance.
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Alcon
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« Reply #5028 on: November 16, 2016, 05:21:28 PM »

I agree, but that's their only bench. Though I guess Hill was non-political before he ran.

Are there any precincts in Seattle with 0 votes for Trump? Probably not, but I wonder...

There's a good chance they'll have some Trump votes in the final report, but on Election Night, there were no Trump votes in Sea 37-1898 in the Central District or Sea 43-1378 in Wallingford.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #5029 on: November 16, 2016, 10:25:08 PM »
« Edited: November 16, 2016, 10:27:40 PM by realisticidealist »

Write-ins in the presidential race are up to 2.75% on this site now, meaning they'll appear when you mouse over the state. Smiley In general, third parties/write-ins have been doing well in the "post-game."
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Alcon
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« Reply #5030 on: November 17, 2016, 08:51:31 PM »

Another winning batch for Clinton in Clark.  She'll very likely hold it.

Looks like Trump will be under 37% with write-ins in the final count.
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« Reply #5031 on: November 21, 2016, 11:22:27 PM »

With just 22k votes left to count in the state, I think it's safe to say that there's no change in the house (+2 Ds in LD30, +1 R in LD31, +1 R in LD19) and +1 D in the senate (LD41).

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« Reply #5032 on: November 21, 2016, 11:41:25 PM »

Also, for the first time since the 1920s (?) Pacific and Grays Harbor counties voted R for governor. It's actually pretty amazing how Trump was able to drag generic R up in Southwest WA, particularly in Wahkiakum and Cowlitz.
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5033 on: November 22, 2016, 12:23:33 AM »

Also, for the first time since the 1920s (?) Pacific and Grays Harbor counties voted R for governor. It's actually pretty amazing how Trump was able to drag generic R up in Southwest WA, particularly in Wahkiakum and Cowlitz.

For comparison:
Grays Harbor 2014:
Derek Kilmer - 63.84%
Marty McClendon - 36.16%
Grays Harbor 2016:
Derek Kilmer - 56.55%
Todd Bloom - 43.45%

Mason 2014:
Derek Kilmer - 55.83%
Marty McClendon - 44.17%
Mason 2016:
Derek Kilmer - 52.26%
Todd Bloom - 47.74%

Clallam 2014:
Derek Kilmer - 56.82%
Marty McClendon - 43.18%
Clallam 2016:
Derek Kilmer - 55.56%
Todd Bloom - 44.44%


That huge swing in Grays Harbor, against a nobody opponent, is something to note.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5034 on: November 25, 2016, 12:30:47 PM »

Also, for the first time since the 1920s (?) Pacific and Grays Harbor counties voted R for governor. It's actually pretty amazing how Trump was able to drag generic R up in Southwest WA, particularly in Wahkiakum and Cowlitz.

For comparison:
Grays Harbor 2014:
Derek Kilmer - 63.84%
Marty McClendon - 36.16%
Grays Harbor 2016:
Derek Kilmer - 56.55%
Todd Bloom - 43.45%

Mason 2014:
Derek Kilmer - 55.83%
Marty McClendon - 44.17%
Mason 2016:
Derek Kilmer - 52.26%
Todd Bloom - 47.74%

Clallam 2014:
Derek Kilmer - 56.82%
Marty McClendon - 43.18%
Clallam 2016:
Derek Kilmer - 55.56%
Todd Bloom - 44.44%


That huge swing in Grays Harbor, against a nobody opponent, is something to note.

Interesting that the swing wasn't bigger in the other counties, especially somewhere more reflexively conservative like Mason
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5035 on: November 25, 2016, 02:31:40 PM »

Some thoughts on the next few years here in Washington...

Democrats have some tremendous opportunities with the 2017 elections, starting with the upcoming special to replace Andy Hill. With Trump unlikely to be popular in the Seattle suburbs this probably starts at Lean D, particularly if the GOP placeholder doesn't run.

There will also be elections for King County Council, with all 3 Republicans left up. None will be as easy to dislodge as Hague was in 2015. PvR should hang on if he chooses to run again and I have a hard time seeing Dunn go down. Still, with the trend in KC, Democrats would be idiots not to target this.

There is also the Bellevue City Council, which I *believe* still has a conservative (by Bellevue standards) majority. Seattle elections will certainly get interesting since Murray no longer has his massive approvals, though I don't know who'd be there to challenge him. I imagine both Burgess and Gonzales hang on in the at-large Council seats, though I'd support any Gonzalez challenger who took her on over the SoDo stadium and her boneheaded homeless policy.

Spokane is all defense. Amazingly, up until the 2013 City Council elections, the Spokane City Council had a 4-3 conservative majority. Now it has a 6-1 liberal majority thanks to some key wins and retirements over the last four years. I have to imagine at least one of the Council liberals looses, not that it will matter much. The big game is the Mayoral contest in 2019.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5036 on: November 25, 2016, 03:44:03 PM »

Looking ahead to 2018, Democrats will have a chance to claw back some losses in the House and Senate. They had a great start on this with the double win in the 30th.

The 5th's two LDs will be the big one, I think. Step one for Democrats will have to be not running Darcy Burner again, or ever. I think in a Trump midterm this is doable.

A seat I personally would like to see targeted is the 6th, in Spokane. Here's why:

Popular, moderate Rep. Kevin Parker surprisingly retired. His replacement Mike Volz seems pretty moderate too but will be a freshman. Jeff Holy is probably entrenched but he definitely lacks Parker's profile in this district. The big fish here is Senator Mike Baumgardner, a staunch conservative who nevertheless plays well with others and has delivered for Spokane, most notably the WSU medical school.

This area is my old district when I lived in Spokane and it should be targeted at all levels by Democrats every year. Running moonbats like Shar Lichty is unacceptable. The district does have some rural areas west of Spokane and an AFB, but it also has the fairly center-left (educated, affluent) South hill, which is growing, as well as Cheney. It also wraps around to include North Spokane's suburbs, which tend to run a little more conservative, but these are growing quick. At the very least, the district keeps growing and has a large university. Dems need to target it - besides the 3rd, this is one of the few places we have to go on offense in Eastern WA, and Hillary did well in Spokane County. Surprisingly well.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5037 on: November 25, 2016, 06:00:31 PM »

There are about zero offensive opportunities in EWA besides the 6th unless Latinos in the Yakima and Columbia Valleys start voting commensurate to their numbers. That said, Democrats can support independents or moderate Republicans in all-R contests to make sure that the other side has reasonable people who want to be productive in the legislature (conservatives and moderates who live in Seattle should do the same). Electing people like Maureen Walsh to the Senate is a step in this direction.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5038 on: November 25, 2016, 06:28:17 PM »

A silver lining for Dems is that both coastal/Olympic Senate seats were up this year and we kept both even as the region swung hard towards Rs. I'm interested to see if Ds can find a good recruit to take back the 19th - maybe JD Rossetti? Why did he lose his primary as an incumbent?

Mark Miloscia is up in the 30th. Ds obviously had a great night here but who do they recruit to take on a guy like Miloscia who's got an interesting profile for an R (pro labor, pro life). I think this is the top target for the Senate, provided the 45th is won in 2017.

Is Jan Angel vulnerable? The Reps in that district need to be top tier targets too.

I think Joe Fain could be an opportunity, though he seems centrist enough for his district, and his brother is a popular radio host. This needs to be a target, but Dems shouldn't expect too much here.

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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5039 on: November 26, 2016, 01:12:05 AM »

In addition to targeting GOP seats, Dems also need to run a strong primary challenger to Tim Sheldon.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5040 on: November 26, 2016, 01:43:43 AM »

In addition to targeting GOP seats, Dems also need to run a strong primary challenger to Tim Sheldon.

In this case they risk to lose district to "real republican". Sheldon's district is far from being very liberal in it's nature..
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5041 on: November 26, 2016, 01:57:07 AM »

In addition to targeting GOP seats, Dems also need to run a strong primary challenger to Tim Sheldon.

In this case they risk to lose district to "real republican". Sheldon's district is far from being very liberal in it's nature..

It's already basically in GOP hands already. Dems have nothing to lose by targeting Sheldon.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5042 on: November 26, 2016, 02:13:49 AM »

In addition to targeting GOP seats, Dems also need to run a strong primary challenger to Tim Sheldon.

In this case they risk to lose district to "real republican". Sheldon's district is far from being very liberal in it's nature..

It's already basically in GOP hands already. Dems have nothing to lose by targeting Sheldon.

You think there can't be a worse Republican then Sheldon? Not sure. I heard this said many times in the South about their conservative Democrats. History has shown that to be mostly false: Republicans, who replaced these conservative Democrats, turned to be not simply worse, but - much worse.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #5043 on: November 26, 2016, 02:19:49 AM »

In addition to targeting GOP seats, Dems also need to run a strong primary challenger to Tim Sheldon.

In this case they risk to lose district to "real republican". Sheldon's district is far from being very liberal in it's nature..

It's already basically in GOP hands already. Dems have nothing to lose by targeting Sheldon.

You think there can't be a worse Republican then Sheldon? Not sure. I heard this said many times in the South about their conservative Democrats. History has shown that to be mostly false: Republicans, who replaced these conservative Democrats, turned to be not simply worse, but - much worse.

Some of them, yes, but the Cochran-Haslam establishment types are usually the most common and almost all of them are better than their racist Democratic predecessors. For example, even saying John Boozman is worse than, say, Dale Bumpers, is a big stretch for me.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5044 on: November 26, 2016, 02:32:09 AM »

In addition to targeting GOP seats, Dems also need to run a strong primary challenger to Tim Sheldon.

In this case they risk to lose district to "real republican". Sheldon's district is far from being very liberal in it's nature..

It's already basically in GOP hands already. Dems have nothing to lose by targeting Sheldon.

You think there can't be a worse Republican then Sheldon? Not sure. I heard this said many times in the South about their conservative Democrats. History has shown that to be mostly false: Republicans, who replaced these conservative Democrats, turned to be not simply worse, but - much worse.

Some of them, yes, but the Cochran-Haslam establishment types are usually the most common and almost all of them are better than their racist Democratic predecessors. For example, even saying John Boozman is worse than, say, Dale Bumpers, is a big stretch for me.

And for me - unquestionably. Bumpers was a moderate liberal (position not far from my "slightly left of center"), Boozman - unoffensive, but solid conservative. I am not sure i would even prefer him over John McClellan or Ezekiel Gathings, both of whom were conservative, but cared about such parochial things as transportation and education. Many present day southern Republicans - don't.
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Alcon
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« Reply #5045 on: November 27, 2016, 09:30:32 AM »
« Edited: November 27, 2016, 09:33:20 AM by Alcon »

The Pierce County swing map is a lot of fun.

Democrats surged not only in North End and West Tacoma, but also UP, Fircrest, in and around Gig Harbor, DuPont, Lakeland Hills, and some scattered upscale subdevelopments.  In working-class exurban and rural areas, quite a few precincts swung 20-30% toward the Republicans.




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KingSweden
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« Reply #5046 on: November 28, 2016, 11:27:18 AM »

The Pierce County swing map is a lot of fun.

Democrats surged not only in North End and West Tacoma, but also UP, Fircrest, in and around Gig Harbor, DuPont, Lakeland Hills, and some scattered upscale subdevelopments.  In working-class exurban and rural areas, quite a few precincts swung 20-30% toward the Republicans.






Good news for Dems looking to take on Jan Angel for Senate. Bad news for hopes Dems could snatch back Puyallup area (not that I think they have anyone who could knock out Melanie Stambaugh)
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5047 on: December 01, 2016, 10:59:59 AM »

BTW who won Pierce CE? Haven't found anything online and that's an underrated crucial office
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #5048 on: December 01, 2016, 12:25:16 PM »

WA President (purple = write-ins):

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Seattle
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« Reply #5049 on: December 01, 2016, 12:26:40 PM »

Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/
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