Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[KingSweden]

Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

[Seattle]

Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?

[KingSweden]

Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?

I've decided I need to be less partisan and focus more on what policy I want to see be implemented, regardless of party. Also, I'm a hackish Third Way neoliberal. Not a lot of mileage for that stance anymore in the Democratic Party, particularly WA.

That said, I can't imagine voting for many WA GOP candidates in the future, especially with the demise of Eastside moderates like Litzow and McKenna over recent years.

[Kingpoleon]

Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?

I've decided I need to be less partisan and focus more on what policy I want to see be implemented, regardless of party. Also, I'm a hackish Third Way neoliberal. Not a lot of mileage for that stance anymore in the Democratic Party, particularly WA.

That said, I can't imagine voting for many WA GOP candidates in the future, especially with the demise of Eastside moderates like Litzow and McKenna over recent years.

It is very interesting to me to see how Washington regularly elects very liberal people, and Oregon elects people like Wyden and Merkley: people willing to compromise and moderate on economics.

[KingSweden]

Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?

I've decided I need to be less partisan and focus more on what policy I want to see be implemented, regardless of party. Also, I'm a hackish Third Way neoliberal. Not a lot of mileage for that stance anymore in the Democratic Party, particularly WA.

That said, I can't imagine voting for many WA GOP candidates in the future, especially with the demise of Eastside moderates like Litzow and McKenna over recent years.

It is very interesting to me to see how Washington regularly elects very liberal people, and Oregon elects people like Wyden, Merkley, and Inslee: people willing to compromise and moderate on economics.

Inslee is from WA FWIW and is pretty moderate on non-climate change related issues. (I should say moderate by WA standards)

[publicunofficial]

Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?

I've decided I need to be less partisan and focus more on what policy I want to see be implemented, regardless of party. Also, I'm a hackish Third Way neoliberal. Not a lot of mileage for that stance anymore in the Democratic Party, particularly WA.

That said, I can't imagine voting for many WA GOP candidates in the future, especially with the demise of Eastside moderates like Litzow and McKenna over recent years.

It is very interesting to me to see how Washington regularly elects very liberal people, and Oregon elects people like Wyden, Merkley, and Inslee: people willing to compromise and moderate on economics.

I wouldn't say most of the people elected statewide are "Very liberal". I would say Jeff Merkley or Kate Brown are to the left of Murray or Cantwell who are very much establishment Dems. King County is probably the most liberal county in America, but very few Seattle progressives get elected statewide.

[Seattle]

Now that the count is final, my Seattle precincts:

Clinton: 341 (87.2%)
Trump: 37 (9.5%)
Johnson: 10 (2.6%)
Stein: 3 (.7%)

Voter turnout was very good, returned ballots: 402/425.

and my other one:

Clinton: 349 (91.4%)  LOL 95.9-4.1, in the two-way
Stein: 15 (3.9%)
Trump: 8 (2.1%)
Johnson: 7 (1.8%)
Castle: 2 (.5%)
La Riva: 1 (.3%)

Turnout is typical of a university area with a high turnover of addresses. 399/548.

It looks like that CD precinct that initially cast no votes for Trump now has him with 1 vote. That's his worst in the city.

[Alcon]

Lowest % Trump by town
1. Nespelem - 8.06%
2. Mattawa - 8.39%*
3. Seattle - 8.44%
4. Langley - 12.20%
5. Mabton - 13.46%
6. Wapato - 13.61%
7. Port Townsend - 14.25%
8. Bainbridge Island - 14.36%
9. Lake Forest Park - 16.73%
10. Shoreline - 17.99%
11. Bellingham - 18.80%
12. Toppenish - 20.55%
13. Tukwila - 20.83%
14. Olympia - 20.94%*
15. Redmond - 21.14%
16. Mercer Island - 21.54%
17. Mountlake Terrace - 22.52%
18. Kenmore - 22.92%
19. Pullman - 23.42%*
20. Kirkland - 23.99%
21. Burien - 24.05%
22. Granger - 24.29%
23. Bellevue - 24.58%
24. Issaquah - 25.35%
25. Renton - 25.51%

Areas in (*) I still don't have write-in totals for, so I'll update as I do.

The Clinton list is mostly a bunch of tiny places you've barely heard of, but the very lowest showing was tiny Hatton in Adams County (2/28, not including write-ins).  The largest of any real size was Lynden, which was 65.65%-23.50% Trump (actually not an amazing performance for him).

[smoltchanov]

With Redmond and surrounding area giving Trump 21-24% it's amazing that Litzow surpassed 48%. I rooted for him (i usually root for moderate Republicans in blue states, where there are more then enough elected Democrats) and he has shown himself being very strong. But this was simply too much

[Kingpoleon]

Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?

I've decided I need to be less partisan and focus more on what policy I want to see be implemented, regardless of party. Also, I'm a hackish Third Way neoliberal. Not a lot of mileage for that stance anymore in the Democratic Party, particularly WA.

That said, I can't imagine voting for many WA GOP candidates in the future, especially with the demise of Eastside moderates like Litzow and McKenna over recent years.

It is very interesting to me to see how Washington regularly elects very liberal people, and Oregon elects people like Wyden, Merkley, and Inslee: people willing to compromise and moderate on economics.

Inslee is from WA FWIW and is pretty moderate on non-climate change related issues. (I should say moderate by WA standards)

Yeah, oops. I was mistaken. There are plenty of moderate Republicans in Washington, though:

Gubernatorial: Rossi(2004 & 2008), McKenna(2012)
Senatorial: Rossi(2010), Vance(2016)

Even McGavick was pretty moderate.

Finally, all three of your Republican congressmen and congresswomen are to the left of even people like Kasich, and probably at least as centrist as Sandoval.

[publicunofficial]

Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?

I've decided I need to be less partisan and focus more on what policy I want to see be implemented, regardless of party. Also, I'm a hackish Third Way neoliberal. Not a lot of mileage for that stance anymore in the Democratic Party, particularly WA.

That said, I can't imagine voting for many WA GOP candidates in the future, especially with the demise of Eastside moderates like Litzow and McKenna over recent years.

It is very interesting to me to see how Washington regularly elects very liberal people, and Oregon elects people like Wyden, Merkley, and Inslee: people willing to compromise and moderate on economics.

Inslee is from WA FWIW and is pretty moderate on non-climate change related issues. (I should say moderate by WA standards)

Yeah, oops. I was mistaken. There are plenty of moderate Republicans in Washington, though:

Gubernatorial: Rossi(2004 & 2008), McKenna(2012)
Senatorial: Rossi(2010), Vance(2016)

Even McGavick was pretty moderate.

Finally, all three of your Republican congressmen and congresswomen are to the left of even people like Kasich, and probably at least as centrist as Sandoval.

Four GOP Congresspeople. And Rodgers and Newhouse are "mainstream" Republicans, but that doesn't necessarily make them moderates. These days, any GOPer who isn't a total firebrand gets labeled as being a moderate.


The problem with the WA GOP is that while there are plenty of moderate Republicans in King, Pierce, Snohomish, ect. that the state party picks to run statewide, the majority of Republicans in the state are from Eastern Washington. And it's the Eastern Washington GOP that rules the caucus, and sets the party's agenda, which tends to be decidedly NOT moderate.

[smoltchanov]

Any ideas of Hill replacement? I know about number of Democrats, who plan to run when it will become possible, but in this case Republicans are of bigger interest to me. And, given that Hill was one of the most moderate (at least - on social issues) Republicans in state Senate, a replacement must be of the same sort (if, of course, Republicas care about majority)

[RI]

Here's a quick, somewhat crude attempt at a presidential swing map:

[Alcon]

^ That is fantastic.  Possible to post zooms in on the Seattle metro, Vancouver, Spokane, and the Tri-Cities?

[RI]

^ That is fantastic.  Possible to post zooms in on the Seattle metro, Vancouver, Spokane, and the Tri-Cities?

I tidied up the map a bit by using 2012 lines in some cases.

Seattle metro:


Spokane:


Tri-Cities:


Vancouver:

[Alcon]

so sexy

[Crumpets]

Clinton ran up the numbers so much in eastern King County. I doubt there will ever again be so much polarization between King County and the rest of the state. Also, did Johnson win a few precincts in the Yakima Valley?

[Alcon]

Clinton ran up the numbers so much in eastern King County. I doubt there will ever again be so much polarization between King County and the rest of the state. Also, did Johnson win a few precincts in the Yakima Valley?

He won three small precincts in Benton County -- two of them 2-0, and one of them 2-1 over Trump.  "Write-in" also won two precincts, one in Benton County (4-1 over Trump) and a one-vote precinct in Yakima County.  A lot of them are coincidentally clustered in same general part of the middle of nowhere.

[Crumpets]

Clinton ran up the numbers so much in eastern King County. I doubt there will ever again be so much polarization between King County and the rest of the state. Also, did Johnson win a few precincts in the Yakima Valley?

He won three small precincts in Benton County -- two of them 2-0, and one of them 2-1 over Trump.  "Write-in" also won two precincts, one in Benton County (4-1 over Trump) and a one-vote precinct in Yakima County.  A lot of them are coincidentally clustered in same general part of the middle of nowhere.

Awesome. Any chance you have a link to the raw data for this map?

[Seattle]

Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.

[RI]

Results by CD for downballot statewide races:

Senate
WA-01: Murray 56.3, Vance 43.7
WA-02: Murray 61.3, Vance 38.7
WA-03: Vance 50.5, Murray 49.5
WA-04: Vance 55.8, Murray 44.2
WA-05: Vance 52.2, Murray 47.8
WA-06: Murray 58.2, Vance 41.8
WA-07: Murray 82.6, Vance 17.4
WA-08: Murray 51.7, Vance 48.3
WA-09: Murray 72.1, Vance 27.9
WA-10: Murray 57.7, Vance 42.3

Governor
WA-01: Inslee 51.3, Bryant 48.7
WA-02: Inslee 56.8, Bryant 43.2
WA-03: Bryant 54.9, Inslee 45.1
WA-04: Bryant 60.2, Inslee 39.8
WA-05: Bryant 56.0, Inslee 44.0
WA-06: Inslee 53.8, Bryant 46.2
WA-07: Inslee 78.3, Bryant 21.7
WA-08: Bryant 53.7, Inslee 46.3
WA-09: Inslee 67.2, Bryant 32.8
WA-10: Inslee 52.5, Bryant 47.5

Lt. Governor
WA-01: Habib 53.2, McClendon 46.8
WA-02: Habib 57.8, McClendon 42.2
WA-03: McClendon 55.7, Habib 44.3
WA-04: McClendon 64.2, Habib 35.8
WA-05: McClendon 59.3, Habib 40.7
WA-06: Habib 53.3, McClendon 46.7
WA-07: Habib 80.8, McClendon 19.2
WA-08: McClendon 53.6, Habib 46.4
WA-09: Habib 69.0, McClendon 31.0
WA-10: Habib 52.6, McClendon 47.4

Secretary of State
WA-01: Wyman 57.7, Podlodowski 42.3
WA-02: Wyman 51.2, Podlodowski 48.8
WA-03: Wyman 62.8, Podlodowski 37.2
WA-04: Wyman 70.0, Podlodowski 30.0
WA-05: Wyman 65.4, Podlodowski 34.6
WA-06: Wyman 55.5, Podlodowski 44.5
WA-07: Podlodowski 69.5, Wyman 30.5
WA-08: Wyman 62.2, Podlodowski 37.8
WA-09: Podlodowski 58.1, Wyman 41.9
WA-10: Wyman 59.0, Podlodowski 41.0

Treasurer
WA-01: Davidson 57.0, Waite 43.0
WA-02: Davidson 56.9, Waite 43.1
WA-03: Davidson 56.3, Waite 43.7
WA-04: Davidson 61.5, Waite 38.5
WA-05: Davidson 58.6, Waite 41.4
WA-06: Davidson 54.7, Waite 45.3
WA-07: Davidson 65.7, Waite 34.3
WA-08: Davidson 56.0, Waite 44.0
WA-09: Davidson 58.6, Waite 41.4
WA-10: Davidson 55.5, Waite 44.5

Auditor
WA-01: Miloscia 51.7, McCarthy 48.3
WA-02: McCarthy 55.3, Miloscia 44.7
WA-03: Miloscia 55.1, McCarthy 44.9
WA-04: Miloscia 61.8, McCarthy 38.2
WA-05: Miloscia 58.0, McCarthy 42.0
WA-06: McCarthy 53.0, Miloscia 47.0
WA-07: McCarthy 74.4, Miloscia 25.6
WA-08: Miloscia 56.1, McCarthy 43.9
WA-09: McCarthy 62.8, Miloscia 37.2
WA-10: McCarthy 52.9, Miloscia 47.1

Attorney General
WA-01: Ferguson 65.2, Trumbull 34.8
WA-02: Ferguson 68.4, Trumbull 31.6
WA-03: Ferguson 59.3, Trumbull 40.7
WA-04: Ferguson 56.3, Trumbull 43.7
WA-05: Ferguson 56.5, Trumbull 43.5
WA-06: Ferguson 66.1, Trumbull 33.9
WA-07: Ferguson 85.6, Trumbull 14.4
WA-08: Ferguson 62.8, Trumbull 37.2
WA-09: Ferguson 77.7, Trumbull 22.3
WA-10: Ferguson 66.3, Trumbull 33.7

CPL
WA-01: Franz 51.0, McLaughlin 49.0
WA-02: Franz 56.1, McLaughlin 43.9
WA-03: McLaughlin 55.9, Franz 44.1
WA-04: McLaughlin 65.8, Franz 34.2
WA-05: McLaughlin 61.3, Franz 38.7
WA-06: Franz 52.2, McLaughlin 47.8
WA-07: Franz 80.5, McLaughlin 19.5
WA-08: McLaughlin 54.4, Franz 45.6
WA-09: Franz 67.8, McLaughlin 32.2
WA-10: Franz 51.5, McLaughlin 48.5

SPI
WA-01: Reykdal 50.3, Jones 49.7
WA-02: Jones 52.2, Reykdal 47.8
WA-03: Reykdal 50.3, Jones 49.7
WA-04: Reykdal 50.3, Jones 49.7
WA-05: Jones 51.3, Reykdal 48.7
WA-06: Jones 50.8, Reykdal 49.2
WA-07: Reykdal 56.6, Jones 43.4
WA-08: Reykdal 50.4, Jones 49.6
WA-09: Jones 52.8, Reykdal 47.2
WA-10: Reykdal 52.6, Jones 47.4

Insurance Commissioner
WA-01: Kreidler 56.1, Schrock 43.9
WA-02: Kreidler 60.7, Schrock 39.3
WA-03: Schrock 51.9, Kreidler 48.1
WA-04: Schrock 59.0, Kreidler 41.0
WA-05: Schrock 55.4, Kreidler 44.6
WA-06: Kreidler 58.3, Schrock 41.7
WA-07: Kreidler 83.1, Schrock 16.9
WA-08: Kreidler 51.4, Schrock 48.6
WA-09: Kreidler 72.3, Schrock 27.7
WA-10: Kreidler 58.9, Schrock 41.1

[RI]

I-1433
WA-01: Yes 55.7, No 44.3
WA-02: Yes 61.1, No 38.9
WA-03: Yes 51.7, No 48.3
WA-04: No 58.8, Yes 41.2
WA-05: No 57.4, Yes 42.6
WA-06: Yes 57.4, No 42.6
WA-07: Yes 77.6, No 22.4
WA-08: Yes 52.2, No 47.8
WA-09: Yes 70.0, No 30.0
WA-10: Yes 57.1, No 42.9

I-1464
WA-01: No 56.8, Yes 43.2
WA-02: No 50.7, Yes 49.3
WA-03: No 61.5, Yes 38.5
WA-04: No 63.7, Yes 36.3
WA-05: No 59.4, Yes 40.6
WA-06: No 52.8, Yes 47.2
WA-07: Yes 61.1, No 38.9
WA-08: No 57.6, Yes 42.4
WA-09: Yes 52.5, No 47.5
WA-10: No 53.7, Yes 46.3

I-1491
WA-01: Yes 69.1, No 30.9
WA-02: Yes 71.7, No 28.3
WA-03: Yes 60.1, No 39.9
WA-04: Yes 54.9, No 45.1
WA-05: Yes 59.3, No 40.7
WA-06: Yes 68.4, No 31.6
WA-07: Yes 87.3, No 12.7
WA-08: Yes 66.4, No 33.6
WA-09: Yes 80.4, No 19.6
WA-10: Yes 68.5, No 31.5

I-1501
WA-01: Yes 68.2, No 31.8
WA-02: Yes 74.0, No 26.0
WA-03: Yes 72.4, No 27.6
WA-04: Yes 69.6, No 30.4
WA-05: Yes 70.2, No 29.8
WA-06: Yes 74.8, No 25.2
WA-07: Yes 61.5, No 38.5
WA-08: Yes 72.0, No 28.0
WA-09: Yes 70.6, No 29.4
WA-10: Yes 75.8, No 24.2

I-732
WA-01: No 60.1, Yes 39.9
WA-02: No 55.9, Yes 44.1
WA-03: No 67.0, Yes 33.0
WA-04: No 70.4, Yes 29.6
WA-05: No 68.4, Yes 31.6
WA-06: No 60.5, Yes 39.5
WA-07: Yes 59.5, No 40.5
WA-08: No 64.6, Yes 35.4
WA-09: No 50.3, Yes 49.7
WA-10: No 61.4, Yes 38.6

I-735
WA-01: Yes 60.1, No 39.9
WA-02: Yes 66.3, No 33.7
WA-03: Yes 58.3, No 41.7
WA-04: Yes 51.7, No 48.3
WA-05: Yes 54.9, No 45.1
WA-06: Yes 64.7, No 35.3
WA-07: Yes 77.3, No 22.7
WA-08: Yes 57.3, No 42.7
WA-09: Yes 69.1, No 30.9
WA-10: Yes 62.5, No 37.5

[smoltchanov]

Excellent result for Wyman: 7th and 9th are unwinnable for anyone with (R) label (be it the God Almighty himself), so - maximum of possible...

[KingSweden]

Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.

I believe the special is in 2017, though I may be wrong.

Either way, I rate it Lean D pending the candidates

[publicunofficial]

Excellent result for Wyman: 7th and 9th are unwinnable for anyone with (R) label (be it the God Almighty himself), so - maximum of possible...

She also won every county except King, San Juan, and Jefferson.