Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[RI]

Precinct maps incoming! I'm just going to link to them as the page would probably overload otherwise:

US Senator
Governor
Lt. Governor
Secretary of State
State Treasurer (Blue is Davidson)
State Auditor
Attorney General
Commissioner of Public Lands
Superintendent of Public Instruction (Purple is Reykdal)
Insurance Commissioner
WA-01
WA-02
WA-03 (need to fix this one)
WA-04
WA-05
WA-06
WA-07 (Red is Jayapal)
WA-08
WA-09
WA-10

Initiative maps will be in a subsequent post.

[smoltchanov]

Excellent result for Wyman: 7th and 9th are unwinnable for anyone with (R) label (be it the God Almighty himself), so - maximum of possible...

She also won every county except King, San Juan, and Jefferson.

Well, reasonable moderate can still be popular))). And, IIRC, she got more then 40% in King - by present standards an outstanding achievement (i know exactly 1 Republican who wins King countywide). But i doubt she will run for any other post. SoS is a good fit (as office) for her as it was for her predecessor (and mentor) Reed..

[Seattle]

Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.

I believe the special is in 2017, though I may be wrong.

Either way, I rate it Lean D pending the candidates

You are right- it is in 2017. The Ds should gain control of the Senate then. It'll be (23+1) - 25?

RI, amazing maps!

[KingSweden]

Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.

I believe the special is in 2017, though I may be wrong.

Either way, I rate it Lean D pending the candidates

You are right- it is in 2017. The Ds should gain control of the Senate then. It'll be (23+1) - 25?

RI, amazing maps!

The 2018 map is pretty much all offensive opportunities too, especially after some disappointments this year. Angel, Fain and Baumgardner I imagine are the top targets

[Crumpets]

That SPI map is pretty crazy. Is there any discernable pattern apart from Jones doing well in Native American areas?

[publicunofficial]

That SPI map is pretty crazy. Is there any discernable pattern apart from Jones doing well in Native American areas?

Seattle going against Jones was probably due to Jones' questionable stance on LGBT matters, which caused The Stranger to un-endorse her. It also seems like Republicans largely backed Rekydal, I guess because if you look at the two candidates side-by-side, you'd guess Rekydal to be the more conservative one.

[Alaska2392]

That SPI map is pretty crazy. Is there any discernable pattern apart from Jones doing well in Native American areas?

Seattle going against Jones was probably due to Jones' questionable stance on LGBT matters, which caused The Stranger to un-endorse her. It also seems like Republicans largely backed Rekydal, I guess because if you look at the two candidates side-by-side, you'd guess Rekydal to be the more conservative one.

Yes, I'm sure that is why.   Or could it perhaps have to do with looking at the two pictures in the voters pamphlet and making a choice based on that.

[publicunofficial]

That SPI map is pretty crazy. Is there any discernable pattern apart from Jones doing well in Native American areas?

Seattle going against Jones was probably due to Jones' questionable stance on LGBT matters, which caused The Stranger to un-endorse her. It also seems like Republicans largely backed Rekydal, I guess because if you look at the two candidates side-by-side, you'd guess Rekydal to be the more conservative one.

Yes, I'm sure that is why.   Or could it perhaps have to do with looking at the two pictures in the voters pamphlet and making a choice based on that.

That's basically what I'm saying.

[KingSweden]

Cathy getting tapped for Interior will create some interesting jockeying in Spokane. I picked the wrong time to move back to seattle apparently

[Heisenberg]

Cathy getting tapped for Interior will create some interesting jockeying in Spokane. I picked the wrong time to move back to seattle apparently

Who do you think will run for the seat? Michael Baumgartner is a State Senator from Spokane and he ran for US Senate four years ago and is pretty young. He seems like someone with ambition, but is he a little too far right? He got crushed in the western part of the state, but did well in WA-05, so he'd probably have the name rec.

[KingSweden]

Cathy getting tapped for Interior will create some interesting jockeying in Spokane. I picked the wrong time to move back to seattle apparently

Who do you think will run for the seat? Michael Baumgartner is a State Senator from Spokane and he ran for US Senate four years ago and is pretty young. He seems like someone with ambition, but is he a little too far right? He got crushed in the western part of the state, but did well in WA-05, so he'd probably have the name rec.

Baumgardner would be the GOP's best, though former Rep Kevin Parker was thought of as the heir for a long time before he unexpectedly retired. Parker was VERY impressive - a real leader, pragmatic, and he spoke with my wife's social work class. She had nothing but good things to say. He'd be impossible for a Democrat to beat.

Baumgardner is very polarizing and he's an odd fit for a very CoC district with a college town, but he's "old Spokane." (Went to Gonzaga Prep HS, tied in with the families that really run the place, close with Mayor Condon). For someone as right wing as him he's a surprisingly effective legislator and was a real leader in getting the new medical school in Spokane and has a great relationship with the 3rd LD's Democrats in both Houses. He'd be formidable.

Really, the big move here would be possibly targeting his Senate seat if he wins the promotion. I imagine he has right of first refusal after being the sacrificial lamb against Cantwell. His Senate district (I lived there and voted against him in '14 while voting for Parker and Holy) is winnable without him in the seat.

[Seattle]

Ugh, I hope not. I'm no big fan of McMorris-Rodgers, but she was always competent. I don't like Baumgartner. If he doesn't run, does Parker?

Pakootas again for the Ds?

[RI]

I'd probably vote for Baumgartner if he ran. Pakootas is okay, but he'll never win this district.

[KingSweden]

Ugh, I hope not. I'm no big fan of McMorris-Rodgers, but she was always competent. I don't like Baumgartner. If he doesn't run, does Parker?

Pakootas again for the Ds?

Cathy is very competent, and very well liked in district. Good constituent services and good on issues that matter to the area (in particular hydro). Parker would be an upgrade in many ways, but I doubt he runs, especially if Baumgartner does. Sadly. Baumgartner is a hack

Pakootas needs to stay away. One of the three from LD3 could be competitive. Billig wouldn't have to give up his seat.

[KingSweden]

Sounds like City Council President Ben Stuckart is in. This is not good for Democrats, he's a polarizing figure in Spokane. Widely thought of as the next Mayor.

A candidate I forgot who would be formidable: Sheriff Ozzie Knezovich. GOP, like all countywide officers, but he's smart and competent, and has been on the leading edge of fighting militia types in the local area. He would have my support out of all Republican candidates here

[KingSweden]

Should add: highly unlikely Nethercutt runs again. Very nice man - only politician I've ever met - but he's out of the game

[publicunofficial]

How did I know who wrote this bill before I even read the story?

[KingSweden]

How did I know who wrote this bill before I even read the story?

Matt Shea is insane, news at 11

[Seattle]

Rebecca Saldaña chosen to replace Jayapal in the LD37. I believe she works for the Puget Sound Sage and comes from a similar background as Jayapal, social activism (environmental/equity vs. immigration).

She'll face fierce competition come the special/election time.

[publicunofficial]

WA Dems are voting on party chair. The main candidates are incumbent Jaxon Ravens and 2016 Secretary of State nominee Tina Podlodowski.

Ravens has been in office since 2014, and is facing criticism over Dems inability to win legislative majorities in a state that should favor them. Ravens stayed neutral in the Sanders/Clinton fight all the way up until the convention.

Podlodowski, a lesbian daughter of Polish immigrants, has held various government positions over the years, often leaving abruptly. Despite endorsing Hillary over Bernie in 2016, she's gotten a lot of Sanders supporters backing her candidacy. Her main criticism of Ravens is that under his leadership, Democrats have failed to recruit and back candidates outside of the Seattle metro area. She says she would try to compete in every county, and open up more offices east of the Cascades.

Roughly 2/3 of the state party's central committee members have been replaced over the past two months by challengers. Doesn't bode well for Ravens.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Did Hillary end up winning Walla Walla?  I heard she was leading at some point before all the votes were counted. 

[andrew_c]

Did Hillary end up winning Walla Walla?  I heard she was leading at some point before all the votes were counted. 

Trump won Walla Walla County 52%-37%.

[RI]

Ravens lost. Dude was always a dick when I emailed them.

[Crumpets]

Did Hillary end up winning Walla Walla?  I heard she was leading at some point before all the votes were counted.  

I wouldn't be surprised if she won Walla Walla proper, even if she lost the county as a whole.

Ravens lost. Dude was always a dick when I emailed them.

How so?

[publicunofficial]

Ravens lost. Dude was always a dick when I emailed them.

You can't have the name Jaxon Ravens and NOT be a huge douchebag.