Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[RI]

Ravens lost. Dude was always a dick when I emailed them.

How so?

I emailed the state party a few times looking for caucus data, and when I reached him, he basically said I was wasting my time as the data was pointless anyway. Never gotten that type of response before or since.

[publicunofficial]

Somewhat old news, but State Sen. Mark Miloscia recently took to Facebook (In a now-deleted post) to call Women's March protests "Ugly, unAmerican, and unChristian protest activities."

Miloscia is up for re-election in 2018, in a district that by my estimates Clinton got around 60% of the vote in, and one that just threw out the two moderate Republicans who represented the district in Olympia. Call it a hunch, but I don't think Miloscia survives the next midterm.

[smoltchanov]

Somewhat old news, but State Sen. Mark Miloscia recently took to Facebook (In a now-deleted post) to call Women's March protests "Ugly, unAmerican, and unChristian protest activities."

Miloscia is up for re-election in 2018, in a district that by my estimates Clinton got around 60% of the vote in, and one that just threw out the two moderate Republicans who represented the district in Olympia. Call it a hunch, but I don't think Miloscia survives the next midterm.

Using the term from Vietnam-war period - Miloscia always seemed to me to be "a hard hat-type Democrat", who marched in "patriotic marches" supporting the war in that time (building union members, and their likes). Essentially - he remains that way, despite changing "D" on "R" recently. So - not so big surprizes, he remains very "loyal" to power, very "patriotic" and so on.

[publicunofficial]

Somewhat old news, but State Sen. Mark Miloscia recently took to Facebook (In a now-deleted post) to call Women's March protests "Ugly, unAmerican, and unChristian protest activities."

Miloscia is up for re-election in 2018, in a district that by my estimates Clinton got around 60% of the vote in, and one that just threw out the two moderate Republicans who represented the district in Olympia. Call it a hunch, but I don't think Miloscia survives the next midterm.

Using the term from Vietnam-war period - Miloscia always seemed to me to be "a hard hat-type Democrat", who marched in "patriotic marches" supporting the war in that time (building union members, and their likes). Essentially - he remains that way, despite changing "D" on "R" recently. So - not so big surprizes, he remains very "loyal" to power, very "patriotic" and so on.

He's also a massive social conservative, which is what caused his party switch. (That and him being butthurt over not getting to be State Auditor).

[smoltchanov]

Somewhat old news, but State Sen. Mark Miloscia recently took to Facebook (In a now-deleted post) to call Women's March protests "Ugly, unAmerican, and unChristian protest activities."

Miloscia is up for re-election in 2018, in a district that by my estimates Clinton got around 60% of the vote in, and one that just threw out the two moderate Republicans who represented the district in Olympia. Call it a hunch, but I don't think Miloscia survives the next midterm.

Using the term from Vietnam-war period - Miloscia always seemed to me to be "a hard hat-type Democrat", who marched in "patriotic marches" supporting the war in that time (building union members, and their likes). Essentially - he remains that way, despite changing "D" on "R" recently. So - not so big surprizes, he remains very "loyal" to power, very "patriotic" and so on.

He's also a massive social conservative, which is what caused his party switch. (That and him being butthurt over not getting to be State Auditor).

Yeah, but there is another (and even more conservative) state Senator of this sort in Washington, who, by some reasons, prefers to stay Democrat (at least - nominally).....

[Seattle]

Honestly, what he does is just for power. By becoming that decisive vote, he's been able to have way more influence since, what 2010, than if he was some D-caucusing member.

Though that's going to end in 2018, I think. With both better than 50% odds of picking up Hill's vacant seat and Miloscia's. Does Sheldon switch parties?

[smoltchanov]

Honestly, what he does is just for power. By becoming that decisive vote, he's been able to have way more influence since, what 2010, than if he was some D-caucusing member.

Though that's going to end in 2018, I think. With both better than 50% odds of picking up Hill's vacant seat and Miloscia's. Does Sheldon switch parties?

Who knows? So far his main task was to get into "top 2". Then he can beat his Democratic opponent with Republican votes (if his opponent in General will be Democrat) or his Republican (and even more conservative) opponent (if he has one) with enough Democratic votes. So far it was a winning strategy...

[KingSweden]

Has it been confirmed that Baumgardner is taking a job in DC? I know Dansel is gone (big surprise) but was this just a rumor?

[publicunofficial]

Honestly, what he does is just for power. By becoming that decisive vote, he's been able to have way more influence since, what 2010, than if he was some D-caucusing member.

Though that's going to end in 2018, I think. With both better than 50% odds of picking up Hill's vacant seat and Miloscia's. Does Sheldon switch parties?

No reason to be in the "Majority Coalition Caucus" if it doesn't get you a majority. Letting a complete traitor back into the caucus might make some Democrats wince, but there's probably no other Democrat who can both primary Sheldon and hold the seat.

I agree that the State Senate is definitely Lean D at this point. D's have almost no vulnerable LD's up for grabs this cycle, and Republicans have to defend the 45th and the 30th, and maybe even the 6th, 26th, or 47th if Democrats get serious.

Has it been confirmed that Baumgardner is taking a job in DC? I know Dansel is gone (big surprise) but was this just a rumor?

Has a temporary EPA transition job, which might develop into a full-time position. Same with Erickson.

Erickson, asshole that he is, is currently annoying his Republican colleagues by splitting time between his EPA job and his legislative duties. And with a tied Senate, votes are often being put on hold until Erickson flies back from DC.

[RI]

Eastern WA had its coldest January in nearly 40 years. It sucks over here.

[KingSweden]

Eastern WA had its coldest January in nearly 40 years. It sucks over here.

That's what I've been hearing from my sister in law. Glad I moved back to Seattle!

[KingSweden]

Honestly, what he does is just for power. By becoming that decisive vote, he's been able to have way more influence since, what 2010, than if he was some D-caucusing member.

Though that's going to end in 2018, I think. With both better than 50% odds of picking up Hill's vacant seat and Miloscia's. Does Sheldon switch parties?

No reason to be in the "Majority Coalition Caucus" if it doesn't get you a majority. Letting a complete traitor back into the caucus might make some Democrats wince, but there's probably no other Democrat who can both primary Sheldon and hold the seat.

I agree that the State Senate is definitely Lean D at this point. D's have almost no vulnerable LD's up for grabs this cycle, and Republicans have to defend the 45th and the 30th, and maybe even the 6th, 26th, or 47th if Democrats get serious.

Has it been confirmed that Baumgardner is taking a job in DC? I know Dansel is gone (big surprise) but was this just a rumor?

Has a temporary EPA transition job, which might develop into a full-time position. Same with Erickson.

Erickson, asshole that he is, is currently annoying his Republican colleagues by splitting time between his EPA job and his legislative duties. And with a tied Senate, votes are often being put on hold until Erickson flies back from DC.

Is Ben curious to hear an analysis on House and Senate  races in 18 from you

[publicunofficial]

Honestly, what he does is just for power. By becoming that decisive vote, he's been able to have way more influence since, what 2010, than if he was some D-caucusing member.

Though that's going to end in 2018, I think. With both better than 50% odds of picking up Hill's vacant seat and Miloscia's. Does Sheldon switch parties?

No reason to be in the "Majority Coalition Caucus" if it doesn't get you a majority. Letting a complete traitor back into the caucus might make some Democrats wince, but there's probably no other Democrat who can both primary Sheldon and hold the seat.

I agree that the State Senate is definitely Lean D at this point. D's have almost no vulnerable LD's up for grabs this cycle, and Republicans have to defend the 45th and the 30th, and maybe even the 6th, 26th, or 47th if Democrats get serious.

Has it been confirmed that Baumgardner is taking a job in DC? I know Dansel is gone (big surprise) but was this just a rumor?

Has a temporary EPA transition job, which might develop into a full-time position. Same with Erickson.

Erickson, asshole that he is, is currently annoying his Republican colleagues by splitting time between his EPA job and his legislative duties. And with a tied Senate, votes are often being put on hold until Erickson flies back from DC.

Is Ben curious to hear an analysis on House and Senate  races in 18 from you

Federal or State House/Senate races?

[publicunofficial]

Opinion: Joe Fain looks like the Angry Video Game Nerd







Discuss

[mds32]

Honestly, what he does is just for power. By becoming that decisive vote, he's been able to have way more influence since, what 2010, than if he was some D-caucusing member.

Though that's going to end in 2018, I think. With both better than 50% odds of picking up Hill's vacant seat and Miloscia's. Does Sheldon switch parties?

No reason to be in the "Majority Coalition Caucus" if it doesn't get you a majority. Letting a complete traitor back into the caucus might make some Democrats wince, but there's probably no other Democrat who can both primary Sheldon and hold the seat.

I agree that the State Senate is definitely Lean D at this point. D's have almost no vulnerable LD's up for grabs this cycle, and Republicans have to defend the 45th and the 30th, and maybe even the 6th, 26th, or 47th if Democrats get serious.

Has it been confirmed that Baumgardner is taking a job in DC? I know Dansel is gone (big surprise) but was this just a rumor?

Has a temporary EPA transition job, which might develop into a full-time position. Same with Erickson.

Erickson, asshole that he is, is currently annoying his Republican colleagues by splitting time between his EPA job and his legislative duties. And with a tied Senate, votes are often being put on hold until Erickson flies back from DC.

Could the GOP, however, manage to take the State House of Representatives while losing the Senate?

[KingSweden]

Honestly, what he does is just for power. By becoming that decisive vote, he's been able to have way more influence since, what 2010, than if he was some D-caucusing member.

Though that's going to end in 2018, I think. With both better than 50% odds of picking up Hill's vacant seat and Miloscia's. Does Sheldon switch parties?

No reason to be in the "Majority Coalition Caucus" if it doesn't get you a majority. Letting a complete traitor back into the caucus might make some Democrats wince, but there's probably no other Democrat who can both primary Sheldon and hold the seat.

I agree that the State Senate is definitely Lean D at this point. D's have almost no vulnerable LD's up for grabs this cycle, and Republicans have to defend the 45th and the 30th, and maybe even the 6th, 26th, or 47th if Democrats get serious.

Has it been confirmed that Baumgardner is taking a job in DC? I know Dansel is gone (big surprise) but was this just a rumor?

Has a temporary EPA transition job, which might develop into a full-time position. Same with Erickson.

Erickson, asshole that he is, is currently annoying his Republican colleagues by splitting time between his EPA job and his legislative duties. And with a tied Senate, votes are often being put on hold until Erickson flies back from DC.

Is Ben curious to hear an analysis on House and Senate  races in 18 from you

Federal or State House/Senate races?

State. I don't think anyone outside of Reichert is vulnerable... yet

[publicunofficial]

Alright, Senate first, then I'll go into the House races later.


LD 6: Baumgardner could resign to take a job in the Trump administration, which could make for an interesting race. New State Dem Chair Tina Podlodowski has talked up being more competitive in Eastern Washington, and this is pretty much the only possible target. Safe R if Baumgardner stays, Lean/Likely R if he doesn't.

LD 7: I have no idea if placeholder Senator Shelly Short plans on running for this seat, but it's Safe R regardless.

LD 8: Sharon Brown will be re-elected. Safe R

LD 13: Extremely Safe R

LD 15: Maybe Trump's presidency will finally get Hispanic voters in Yakima to turn out. Don't bet on it. Safe R.

LD 21: Marko Liias should have no problem being re-elected. Safe D.

LD 26: Jan Angel will be tough to defeat, and both Rep's for this district were re-elected by decent margins in 2014. The Gig Harbor/Artondale portion of this district swung fairly hard to the left in 2016, but are probably still happy and willing to vote for a most mainstream Republicans. Likely R.

LD 29: Steve Conway is 72 and might retire, but D's should hold this seat easily regardless. Safe D

LD 30: The Main Event. Mark Miloscia probably wasn't too happy seeing Linda Kochmar and Terri Hickel get blown out by Democrats in 2016. Maybe he gets enough cross-over D support to stay alive, but the prognosis isn't good with Democrats absolutely needing this buffer their potential thin majority. Lean/Likely D

LD 31: The Senate will greatly miss the presence of Pam Roach, who was as kind and warm-hearted as her name implies. Safe R

LD 32: Maralyn Chase could retire at 76, and I'd love to see Cindy Ryu move up. Safe D in any case.

LD 33: Karen Kaiser has been in this district since 1996. She will remain there until she decides to leave. Safe D

LD 34: Soon-to-be-Senate-Majority-Leader Sharon Nelson will cruise to re-election. Safe D

LD 35: What to do with Tim Sheldon. Sheldon is sure to face another D primary challenger, but I think he'd rather run against a fellow Democrat (And become the default R candidate) than run against a Republican and risk getting defeated in this R-trending seat. Sheldon could choose to caucus with the Democrats again should they gain the majority; which means it may be prudent for Republicans to challenge him. Sheldon is 70 and could theoretically retire as well, in which case Republicans probably pick this seat up. I have no idea how to even rate this race. Toss-Up, I guess?

LD 36: Will Rueven Carlyle even have an opponent? Stay tuned. Safe D

LD 37: Rebecca Saldaña's first ever election will be a cakewalk. Safe D

LD 38: John McCoy is 73 and could retire. June Robinson would easily hold this seat if he did, as could most Democrats. Safe D.

LD 42: Doug Ericksen could also leave to join the Trump administration. Good riddance if he does. Safe R

LD 43: Is this the most Safe D legislative district in the country? Definitely a contender.

LD 44: Probably the only Senate seat that D's will have to put any effort into defending. Not a ton of effort though. Likely D

LD 45: This would have been a fight for R's to hold with Andy Hill, and with his unfortunate passing they're likely screwed in this district where Trump did not carry a single precinct. Democrats almost certainly take this seat in the special election. Likely D

LD 46: Another Seattle district. Safe D

LD 47: Clinton probably carried this district, but Joe Fain is popular enough that he shouldn't be worried. Likely R

LD 48: The math for Republicans to control the State Senate in the future gets a lot harder if Eastside is now a solid D area top-to-bottom, as it appears to be. Safe D

In short: D's likely take Senate on whatever date the LD-45 special election is, and look good to hold the chamber for a while barring any major shifts in voting habits. Come 2020 the only seats the D's will have to defend will be the 5th and 19th, with the 5th trending D and the 19th trending R. Even if Republicans get both of those, they'd need one more assuming Sheldon is caucusing with Democrats.

[publicunofficial]

Now for the House, with shorter write-ups for the sake of space:

LD-1: Safe D/Safe D
LD-2: Safe R/Safe R
LD-3: Safe D/Safe D
LD-4: Safe R/Safe R

LD-5: Dems are sure to target Rodne and Graves again, hopefully with better nominees than two failed WA-08 candidates. Hard to tell who wins this far out. Toss-Up for both seats

LD-6: Even if D's target the 6th, I don't see Volz or Hardy going down. If Baumgardner resigns however, Dems could target an open seat. Safe R for now.

LD-7: Safe R/Safe R
LD-8: Safe R/Safe R
LD-9: Safe R/Safe R
LD-10: Safe R/Safe R
LD-11: Safe D/Safe D
LD-12: Safe R/Safe R
LD-13: Safe R/Safe R
LD-14: Safe R/Safe R
LD-15: Safe R/Safe R
LD-16: Safe R/Safe R

LD-17: Dems came up about 2,000 votes short of taking the open House seat last year, but Vicki Kraft likely does better as an incumbent. This district is trending D, but will probably remain in R hands for a while. Likely R/Safe R

LD-18: Safe R/Safe R

LD-19: A target for both parties. Dems will look to try again against Jim Walsh, who won his first term in 2016 by less than 1,000 votes and likely helped by Donald Trump's popularity in this area. Dem incumbent Brian Blake crushed his challenger, but Republicans will likely try again in this reddening rural seat. Former Rep. J.D. Rossetti (D) could run, but his checkered personal history and the fact that he lost a primary gives me pause to his candidacy. Toss-Up/Lean D

LD-20: Safe R/Safe R
LD-21: Safe D/Safe D
LD-22: Safe D/Safe D
LD-23: Safe D/Safe D

LD-24: Republicans could maybe make a play here if incumbent Steve Tharinger retires. But super-liberal Jefferson County makes this a really steep hill to climb for the GOP. A winning Republican candidate would probably need to dominate in Clallam Co. in order to make up for Jefferson's deficit, and Clallam isn't really a county where massive wins are possible. Safe D/Safe D for now.

LD-25: Safe R/Safe R

LD-26: Everything I said about Jan Angel applies to Young and Caldier as well. Likely R/Likely R

LD-27: Safe D/Safe D

LD-28: Another seat for both parties to target. Dick Muri (R) is probably slightly more vulnerable than Christine Kilduff (D), but this area loves voting for moderate Republicans. Lean R/Lean D

LD-29: Safe D/Safe D

LD-30: Could ousted Rep's Linda Kochmar and/or Terri Hickel return for a rematch? Even if they do, I think Dems have a solid advantage here. Likely D/Lean D

LD-31: Safe R/Safe R
LD-32: Safe D/Safe D
LD-33: Safe D/Safe D
LD-34: Safe D/Safe D
LD-35: Safe R/Safe R
LD-36: Safe D/Safe D
LD-37: Safe D/Safe D
LD-38: Safe D/Safe D
LD-39: Safe R/Safe R
LD-40: Safe D/Safe D
LD-41: Safe D/Safe D
LD-42: Safe R/Safe R
LD-43: Safe D/Safe D

LD-44: Both John Lovick (D) and Mark Harmsworth (R) are likely to have targets on their back this cycle. Lovick pulled off a slim 52-48 win in his first ever election. Harmsworth pulled out a larger but not that impressive 54-45 win. I'm guessing Lovick's numbers improve in 2018 as an incumbent, and that Harmsworth pulls off a slim win. Lean D/Lean R

LD-45: Safe D/Safe D
LD-46: Safe D/Safe D

LD-47: Both Mark Hargrove (R) and Pat Sullivan (D) will probably be re-elected, and neither seems likely to retire this cycle. Side Note: I love that this district simultaneously votes for the Democrat House Majority Leader and Republican Senate Majority Leader. Can't split tickets any harder than that. Likely R/Likely D

LD-48: Safe D/Safe D
LD-49: Safe D/Safe D


For the GOP to win control of the House they have to pull off another close double-win in the 5th, and then pick up two Dem seats. I'd expect them to target LD-19 and LD-47 the hardest, but it's hard for me to see them winning either one. I'd put House control at Likely D overall right now.

[KingSweden]

I think your analysis holds true, I love it. I'm thinking D+2 in the Senate right now, inclusive of the special in the 45th (which is my district right now, but I dunno if I'll be there in November or not)

[publicunofficial]

Bold Prediction: Bob Ferguson will be Washington's next governor.

[KingSweden]

Bold Prediction: Bob Ferguson will be Washington's next governor.

Still think Dow is likelier, IMO. Ferguson would clear the field if, say, Cantwell or Murray ever hung it up

[Seattle]

Bold Prediction: Bob Ferguson will be Washington's next governor.

Still think Dow is likelier, IMO. Ferguson would clear the field if, say, Cantwell or Murray ever hung it up

I agree. But I also really want to see Dow elected, so I may be biased.

There's also Derek Kilmer who I think will end up in the Senate eventually.

[publicunofficial]

Bold Prediction: Bob Ferguson will be Washington's next governor.

Still think Dow is likelier, IMO. Ferguson would clear the field if, say, Cantwell or Murray ever hung it up

I agree. But I also really want to see Dow elected, so I may be biased.

There's also Derek Kilmer who I think will end up in the Senate eventually.

Probably Kilmer or DelBene gets the next open Senate seat.

[KingSweden]

Bold Prediction: Bob Ferguson will be Washington's next governor.

Still think Dow is likelier, IMO. Ferguson would clear the field if, say, Cantwell or Murray ever hung it up

I agree. But I also really want to see Dow elected, so I may be biased.

There's also Derek Kilmer who I think will end up in the Senate eventually.

Probably Kilmer or DelBene gets the next open Senate seat.

I'd prefer Kilmer just from an age standpoint, can build seniority. I imagine Murray/Cantwell want to be replaced by women, but maybe I'm just projecting. DelBene is pretty unexciting (though a solid Rep. I believe I'm in her district)

[Seattle]

I've always thought DelBene would follow Cantwell, except that she's 55, to Cantwell's 58.
Which is probably too old, considering Murray will likely run again in 2022, and I imagine so will Cantwell in 2024.