Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 836281 times)
publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5175 on: March 18, 2017, 04:31:27 PM »

This has probably been asked before, but why is it still '15 and not '17?

Also I really wish I knew more about Washingtonian politics since I was born there.

Because only Meeker can edit the thread title, and he hasn't posted since September.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #5176 on: March 18, 2017, 04:54:26 PM »

Because only Meeker can edit the thread title, and he hasn't posted since September.

I updated it to '17. If you guys want to make the title something different, I'm ok with that, at least unless Meeker comes back and objects.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #5177 on: March 22, 2017, 09:12:08 PM »
« Edited: March 22, 2017, 09:42:18 PM by publicunofficial »

Daily Kos has calculated the Presidential vote by Legislative District:

In the State Senate, Republicans hold 7 districts Clinton carried, while Democrats hold 2 Trump seats (1, if you don't count Tim Sheldon as a Democrat). I've bolded the 9 ticket-splitting districts. Hillary carried 30/49 seats, compared to the 34 that Obama carried.

LD-01 (Palumbo) 61-30 Clinton
LD-02 (Becker) 53-37 Trump
LD-03 (Billig) 51-38 Clinton
LD-04 (Padden) 56-34 Trump
LD-05 (Mullet) 54-37 Clinton
LD-06 (Baumgartner) 46-44 Trump
LD-07 (Short) 63-29 Trump
LD-08 (Brown) 57-34 Trump
LD-09 (Schoesler) 56-35 Trump
LD-10 (Bailey) 46-45 Clinton
LD-11 (Hasegawa) 67-25 Clinton
LD-12 (Hawkins) 55-37 Trump
LD-13 (Warnick) 61-31 Trump
LD-14 (King) 54-38 Trump
LD-15 (Honeyford) 51-42 Trump
LD-16 (Walsh) 56-36 Trump
LD-17 (Wilson) 46-45 Trump
LD-18 (Rivers) 50-42 Trump
LD-19 (Takko) 50-41 Trump
LD-20 (Braun) 61-30 Trump
LD-21 (Liias) 62-30 Clinton
LD-22 (Hunt) 60-30 Clinton
LD-23 (Rolfes) 56-34 Clinton
LD-24 (Van De Wege) 48-43 Clinton
LD-25 (Zeiger) 46-45 Trump
LD-26 (Angel) 45.36 - 45.35 Clinton (10 vote difference!!!)
LD-27 (Darneille) 65-26 Clinton
LD-28 (O'Ban) 52-38 Clinton
LD-29 (Conway) 54-36 Clinton
LD-30 (Miloscia) 56-35 Clinton
LD-31 (Fortunato) 50-41 Trump
LD-32 (Chase) 71-21 Clinton
LD-33 (Keiser) 64-28 Clinton
LD-34 (Nelson) 79-14 Clinton
LD-35 (Sheldon) 46-44 Trump
LD-36 (Carlyle) 85-9 Clinton
LD-37 (Saldaña) 87-8 Clinton
LD-38 (McCoy) 53-37 Clinton
LD-39 (Pearson) 50-40 Trump
LD-40 (Ranker) 62-29 Clinton
LD-41 (Wellman) 67-26 Clinton
LD-42 (Ericksen) 47-44 Clinton
LD-43 (Pedersen) 88-5 Clinton
LD-44 (Hobbs) 50-40 Clinton
LD-45 (Rossi) 64-28 Clinton
LD-46 (Frockt) 81-12 Clinton
LD-47 (Fain) 54-38 Clinton
LD-48 (Kuderer) 68-25 Clinton
LD-49 (Cleveland) 54-37 Clinton

O'Ban ran 14 points ahead of Trump. Takko ran 14 points ahead of Clinton. And to his credit, Steve Litzow ran 22 points ahead of Trump and that wasn't enough to save him.

Surprised LD-42 is a Clinton seat. Obama carried it barely in 2012, and I guess I didn't realize how badly Trump under-performed in Lynden.

Edit: For those doing the math at home, this also means that in the State House there are 11 Republicans in Clinton districts and only 1 (Rep. Blake of LD-19) in a Trump district.
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5178 on: March 22, 2017, 09:29:30 PM »

Visualized:

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KingSweden
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« Reply #5179 on: March 23, 2017, 09:44:41 AM »

Miloscia and mayyyybe Angel are the low hanging fruit, IMO. Erickson and Fain will be tougher outs, especially since Fain's brother is a big sports radio personality. Baumgartner - in a narrow Trump district - will be a difficult man to defeat
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5180 on: March 23, 2017, 07:19:39 PM »

Miloscia and mayyyybe Angel are the low hanging fruit, IMO. Erickson and Fain will be tougher outs, especially since Fain's brother is a big sports radio personality. Baumgartner - in a narrow Trump district - will be a difficult man to defeat

The problem with SD-26 is that a lot of Hillary's support came from the Gig Harbor/Artondale area. Angel's a waaaaaay better fit for those suburbs than Trump was. I'd be very surprised if she went down.

Trump being under 40 in Fain's district is eye-grabbing. If the Seattle metro keeps growing, that seat will fall sooner or later.
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« Reply #5181 on: March 23, 2017, 07:28:45 PM »

If Auburn and Kent go the way of the Eastside, then LD-40 may very well be on LD-44's track in 10 years from now. Fain, a well-liked moderate incumbent, much like Litzow, keeps hanging on until the eventual political tide knocks him out.

Also, O'Bann needs to be seriously challenged. He only won by 6-7 points in a D+14 district. I think Christine Kilduff would make for a good challenger.
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5182 on: March 28, 2017, 05:43:36 PM »
« Edited: March 28, 2017, 05:46:28 PM by publicunofficial »

Couple of stories:


A PPP poll finds Manka Dhinga leading a theoretical matchup against placeholder incumbent Dino Rossi, 46-40.  Dhinga has received endorsements from Jay Inslee, Patty Murray, and Dow Constantine.
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Kim Wyman has been diagnoised with colon cancer. She's undergoing treatment and says she is expected to make a full recovery.
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Another entrant in the crowded primary for Tim Burgess's council seat: LGBT activist Mac McGregor. McGregor, a martial arts enthusiast and gym owner who sits on the Seattle Police Department’s LGBTQ Advisory Council, is transgender.

The story also notes that housing activist Jon Grant currently leads in fundraising, getting $76K almost entirely through Seattle's new democracy voucher program. Labor activist Teresa Mosqueda is in second with $53K, and physician Hisam Goueli in third with $11K. The other 7 candidates have less than $10K raised.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5183 on: March 28, 2017, 06:14:10 PM »

Ugh, Jon Grant...

Wasn't O'Ban up in '16?
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5184 on: March 28, 2017, 08:24:09 PM »

Ugh, Jon Grant...

Wasn't O'Ban up in '16?

He was. He defeated Marisa Peloquin, a colonel in the Army Reserve, by a 4,000 vote margin. 52-47
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5185 on: March 28, 2017, 08:42:15 PM »

Ugh, Jon Grant...

Wasn't O'Ban up in '16?

He was. He defeated Marisa Peloquin, a colonel in the Army Reserve, by a 4,000 vote margin. 52-47

That's too bad. No cracks at that tool til 2020
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RI
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« Reply #5186 on: April 06, 2017, 05:16:50 PM »

So, uh, yeah...
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5187 on: April 06, 2017, 05:39:17 PM »


JFC! This could have legs. Seems almost Jim West-Lite (similar circumstances in Spokane that took down a mayor).

Shame if it's true, I rather like Murray
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5188 on: April 06, 2017, 05:46:05 PM »

Quote
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Welp. We might be in for more than a drizzle.
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« Reply #5189 on: April 06, 2017, 06:01:29 PM »

Yikes. This could be big... I hope this doesn't mean Nikkita Oliver comes out as the front runner in whatever happens next.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5190 on: April 06, 2017, 06:10:44 PM »

Yikes. This could be big... I hope this doesn't mean Nikkita Oliver comes out as the front runner in whatever happens next.

Mike McGinn Part II: The Redemption
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Crumpets
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« Reply #5191 on: April 06, 2017, 06:11:58 PM »

If Murray was hypothetically forced to resign over this, who would theoretically take his place? Hyeok Kim? Does anybody know anything about her?
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5192 on: April 06, 2017, 06:23:14 PM »

If Murray was hypothetically forced to resign over this, who would theoretically take his place? Hyeok Kim? Does anybody know anything about her?

She's got a tragic backstory involving spending a portion of her childhood as a homeless orphan. But other than that all I can tell of her is that's she's a Murray ally and thus likely has similar positions.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #5193 on: April 06, 2017, 11:17:18 PM »

Yikes. This could be big... I hope this doesn't mean Nikkita Oliver comes out as the front runner in whatever happens next.

Wow--- this sounds potentially huge....

Not sure what your issue is with Nikkita, but my sister finally met her a few weeks back in one of the Indivisible meetings and/or Homeless activist meetings she has been involved in, and her street cred is definitely expanding in leaps and bounds among the energized base of the Democratic Party in Seattle...

Do you really think a Republican will will win the mayoral election in Seattle, or do you have legitimate concerns regarding her capability to lead the City compared to the other contenders?Huh
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Crumpets
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« Reply #5194 on: April 06, 2017, 11:43:40 PM »

Yikes. This could be big... I hope this doesn't mean Nikkita Oliver comes out as the front runner in whatever happens next.

Wow--- this sounds potentially huge....

Not sure what your issue is with Nikkita, but my sister finally met her a few weeks back in one of the Indivisible meetings and/or Homeless activist meetings she has been involved in, and her street cred is definitely expanding in leaps and bounds among the energized base of the Democratic Party in Seattle...

Do you really think a Republican will will win the mayoral election in Seattle, or do you have legitimate concerns regarding her capability to lead the City compared to the other contenders?Huh

It's nearly impossible for a Republican to win city-wide in Seattle nowadays. The establishment Democrats and the lefties have pretty much squared off their respective corners of city politics, and the runoff is pretty much inevitably going to be one from each wing. The only question is whether the "left" candidate will be someone more in the Jayapal mold or the Sawant mold.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5195 on: April 07, 2017, 12:18:46 PM »

IMO - Nikita Oliver is in the race because nobody else has the cachet to take on Murray. If this thing sinks him or wounds him to the point that he's a McGinn or a Nickles, I'd expect the deep bench in Seattle to take a run. We could be looking at ASOIAF, Seattle style... A Clash of Candidates? A Storm of SJWs? (I kid!)

Sally Bagshaw has been thought of as somebody with mayoral ambitions. This would make me barf, as she went from being one of the best CMs to a Port flak who became the ringleader of the obnoxious "Fem Five" that made their anti-sports fan victory lap on Samantha Bee last year. Bagshaw is establishment enough to probably pick up significant institutional support, but she'd be the worst option to build on Murray's good work in this neoliberal hack's opinion.

Gonzalez clearly has ambitions bigger than At-Large CM. Question is if she'd risk her seat, where she'll have a tough reelection campaign as is, for a run in what promises to be a wild jungle for Mayor. Burgess is walking this fall from the other AL seat, but could he win 50% in November with his reputation as a conservative (obviously by Seattle standards)?

Rob Johnson would be my ideal choice for literally any office - a great urbanist. Doubt he runs, along with the other CMs. Sawant is a wild card but after four years of her antics on the Council I doubt there's a winning coalition for her in a Top Two. Besides, I imagine she commands more influence in her current perch where she can grandstand for her diehards but isn't responsible for governing. Sawant for all her faults is a sharp lady and probably gets this.

There are a number of state leg types I could see coveting the office. Jamie Petersen is a Murray acolyte and has the same base, plus would keep the LGBT community happy. Jessyn Farrell has strong urbanist bonafides but would still be acceptable to the more hard-left crowd. I actually think she'd be one of the strongest contenders. Walkinshaw is an interesting case - name rec after his Congressional run, and he'd obviously be to the left of Murray, but is there still bad blood between him and Jayapal's contingent, with
Whom Sawant is obviously a respected voice?
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« Reply #5196 on: April 07, 2017, 12:56:23 PM »

If Murray becomes nonviable, I expect Walkinshaw to run on an urbanist platform. He's got nothing to lose, and would be my ideal candidate (Rob Johnson needs to stay on the council, he's doing good work. Plus, he seems more like a legislator than an executive).

I don't dislike Nikkita Oliver, but her comments on supporting 25% manditory affordable housing in all developments is scary- unless you want to see Seattle reach SF levels of affordability. She also seems to be focusing more on the affordable requirement side than the more important upzone side, which further puts in to doubt her commitment to actually tackling the affordable housing crisis.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5197 on: April 07, 2017, 01:30:22 PM »

If Murray becomes nonviable, I expect Walkinshaw to run on an urbanist platform. He's got nothing to lose, and would be my ideal candidate (Rob Johnson needs to stay on the council, he's doing good work. Plus, he seems more like a legislator than an executive).

I don't dislike Nikkita Oliver, but her comments on supporting 25% manditory affordable housing in all developments is scary- unless you want to see Seattle reach SF levels of affordability. She also seems to be focusing more on the affordable requirement side than the more important upzone side, which further puts in to doubt her commitment to actually tackling the affordable housing crisis.

Yeah, I'm not a fan of her. Too illiterate on urban issues, though I know she's coming from a well meaning place (rather than pure NIMBYism). Again, I suspect her running is because anti-Murray factions need a warm body to run against him. Walkinshaw would be favored in a race with her IMO
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« Reply #5198 on: April 10, 2017, 11:21:09 AM »

Spokesman-Review wrote an article about my maps.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5199 on: April 10, 2017, 12:40:20 PM »


Congratulations! Good luck on your dissertation
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