Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5250 on: May 03, 2017, 07:10:52 PM »

Dave Reichert's non-committal on the AHCA is front-page news on the Seattle Times today. They've consistently endorsed him for re-election in years prior.
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5251 on: May 06, 2017, 02:24:03 AM »

Reposting this here:

WA-05: Washington State University-Spokane Chancellor Lisa Brown is resigning from her post, and says she's weighing a bid against Cathy McMorris Rodgers. Brown was previously a state legislator for 20 years, serving as Senate Majority Leader from '05 to '13.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5252 on: May 06, 2017, 06:18:57 PM »

Reposting this here:

WA-05: Washington State University-Spokane Chancellor Lisa Brown is resigning from her post, and says she's weighing a bid against Cathy McMorris Rodgers. Brown was previously a state legislator for 20 years, serving as Senate Majority Leader from '05 to '13.

*whistles*

Brown would be a big get. Her tenure as Majority Leader could hurt her but she'd be a vastly better candidate than Stuckart (who frankly should run for Mayor). Lisa Brown would not lack for fundraising and institutional support. This is the biggest name Dems could get for this seat outside of mayyybe Andy Billig
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« Reply #5253 on: May 09, 2017, 11:58:03 AM »

State senator Bob Hasegawa, representing parts of South Seattle has entered the mayoral race:

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-sen-bob-hasegawa-running-for-seattle-mayor/

In even more interesting news, today at 10:30 AM, Murray will be making an announcement. The buzz I'm hearing is that he will not be running for reelection. Though that could be totally off.
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« Reply #5254 on: May 09, 2017, 12:35:29 PM »

Murray out.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5255 on: May 09, 2017, 12:52:30 PM »


WHOA!

Queue some heavyweights getting in. Hasegawa and McGinn should frighten nobody. Walkinshaw could do well, as could Petersen. Jessyn Farrell could be interesting too
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5256 on: May 09, 2017, 01:05:42 PM »

RIP Ed Murray

I think I might like Hasegawa over McGinn. Hard to say, if Walkinshaw gets in that'd make things harder.

Hasegawa might have a slight disadvantage;the only part of Seattle in his district is Chapel Hill.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5257 on: May 09, 2017, 01:17:36 PM »

Should add Hasegawa is utterly hostile to Sound Transit despite his left wing credentials - this is not a man anyone should trust with urbanist issues in Seattle
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5258 on: May 09, 2017, 01:19:19 PM »

I live in Kirkland, so I don't have a vote, but Seattle leads the charge around here and what happens there matters to urban issues and Transit throughout the region. That's why I like McGinn even though he's an abrasive weirdo.

If I had to rank...

1. Hypothetical Walkinshaw
2. McGinn
3. Hasegawa
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Seattle
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« Reply #5259 on: May 09, 2017, 01:32:05 PM »

1. Walkinshaw (now's his time)
2. Cary Moon
3. McGinn
4. Oliver
5. Hasegawa
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5260 on: May 09, 2017, 01:35:48 PM »

1. Walkinshaw (now's his time)
2. Cary Moon
3. McGinn
4. Oliver
5. Hasegawa

What's Cary Moon's niche? Haven't heard anything about him/her.
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« Reply #5261 on: May 09, 2017, 01:44:45 PM »

She's an urban planner/landscape architect:

http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/04/19/25084739/cary-moon-is-running-for-mayor-of-seattle-an-interview-with-the-brand-newest-murray-challenger
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5262 on: May 09, 2017, 02:01:31 PM »


Thank you for sharing. Points to the Stranger's interviewer (I've been clear on here that I'm not a fan) asking tough questions and her giving straight answers. I think she gets the issues better than most (I have about zero confidence in Oliver or Hasegawa on urban issues)
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5263 on: May 09, 2017, 03:12:58 PM »

Per DKE - former US Attorney and AG shortlister Jenny Durkan sounds close to getting in for Mayor. She would probably clear the field on the establishment and LGBT sides (there's plenty of overlap there) and would probably become the instant front runner. I imagine Harrell and Walkinshaw both defer to her
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #5264 on: May 09, 2017, 04:35:02 PM »

Yeah I forgot about Hasegawa's opposition to light rail. Rules him out for me.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5265 on: May 10, 2017, 04:11:57 PM »

Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5266 on: May 10, 2017, 04:52:16 PM »

Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too

Filing deadline is May 19th for all King County elections this year.

Harrell will probably run. He came in 3rd last time, and with Burgess retiring Harrell will be forced to hold the title of most conservative voice on the council (Not a way to gain popularity in Seattle). I'd imagine he would be able to pick up a lot of Murray voters, certainly more than McGinn can.

If Harrell doesn't get in, I'd expect Lorena Gonzalez or Hyeok Kim to get in and run on continuing Murray's policies. I'd like to see Jamie Pedersen or Brady Walkinshaw get in, but I haven't seen their names being tossed around much outside of here.

I'd love if Mike O'Brien ran, but I think McGinn eats into his niche too much.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5267 on: May 10, 2017, 06:01:06 PM »

Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too

Filing deadline is May 19th for all King County elections this year.

Harrell will probably run. He came in 3rd last time, and with Burgess retiring Harrell will be forced to hold the title of most conservative voice on the council (Not a way to gain popularity in Seattle). I'd imagine he would be able to pick up a lot of Murray voters, certainly more than McGinn can.

If Harrell doesn't get in, I'd expect Lorena Gonzalez or Hyeok Kim to get in and run on continuing Murray's policies. I'd like to see Jamie Pedersen or Brady Walkinshaw get in, but I haven't seen their names being tossed around much outside of here.

I'd love if Mike O'Brien ran, but I think McGinn eats into his niche too much.

Lorena wouldn't be bad. I'm still a little peeves over her arena vote and subsequent "sports fans hate women!" victory lap on Samantha Bee but she's the best of the ladies on the council. The risk is somebody worse getting her seat this fall. Just happy Port shill Bagshaw isn't running Tongue

O'Brien has gotten better. He and McGinn def overlap a bit, though O'Brien would be superior. He gets the balance between equity and urbanism better than most of the Sawant camp
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« Reply #5268 on: May 11, 2017, 04:04:30 PM »

Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too

Filing deadline is May 19th for all King County elections this year.

Harrell will probably run. He came in 3rd last time, and with Burgess retiring Harrell will be forced to hold the title of most conservative voice on the council (Not a way to gain popularity in Seattle). I'd imagine he would be able to pick up a lot of Murray voters, certainly more than McGinn can.

If Harrell doesn't get in, I'd expect Lorena Gonzalez or Hyeok Kim to get in and run on continuing Murray's policies. I'd like to see Jamie Pedersen or Brady Walkinshaw get in, but I haven't seen their names being tossed around much outside of here.

I'd love if Mike O'Brien ran, but I think McGinn eats into his niche too much.

Lorena wouldn't be bad. I'm still a little peeves over her arena vote and subsequent "sports fans hate women!" victory lap on Samantha Bee but she's the best of the ladies on the council. The risk is somebody worse getting her seat this fall. Just happy Port shill Bagshaw isn't running Tongue

O'Brien has gotten better. He and McGinn def overlap a bit, though O'Brien would be superior. He gets the balance between equity and urbanism better than most of the Sawant camp

And Jenny Durkan is running for mayor: http://crosscut.com/2017/05/former-u-s-attorney-jenny-durkan-is-running-for-mayor/

I don't think Harrell will run. He knows he can't win AND he is really not a strong candidate. He barely won his last election against a nobody candidate (who to her credit, turned out to be pretty good).

Lorena likely won't get in, but she'd be a decent candidate. O'Brien definitely isn't going to jump in with his buddy - McGinn - running.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5269 on: May 11, 2017, 05:14:08 PM »

Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too

Filing deadline is May 19th for all King County elections this year.

Harrell will probably run. He came in 3rd last time, and with Burgess retiring Harrell will be forced to hold the title of most conservative voice on the council (Not a way to gain popularity in Seattle). I'd imagine he would be able to pick up a lot of Murray voters, certainly more than McGinn can.

If Harrell doesn't get in, I'd expect Lorena Gonzalez or Hyeok Kim to get in and run on continuing Murray's policies. I'd like to see Jamie Pedersen or Brady Walkinshaw get in, but I haven't seen their names being tossed around much outside of here.

I'd love if Mike O'Brien ran, but I think McGinn eats into his niche too much.

Lorena wouldn't be bad. I'm still a little peeves over her arena vote and subsequent "sports fans hate women!" victory lap on Samantha Bee but she's the best of the ladies on the council. The risk is somebody worse getting her seat this fall. Just happy Port shill Bagshaw isn't running Tongue

O'Brien has gotten better. He and McGinn def overlap a bit, though O'Brien would be superior. He gets the balance between equity and urbanism better than most of the Sawant camp

And Jenny Durkan is running for mayor: http://crosscut.com/2017/05/former-u-s-attorney-jenny-durkan-is-running-for-mayor/

I don't think Harrell will run. He knows he can't win AND he is really not a strong candidate. He barely won his last election against a nobody candidate (who to her credit, turned out to be pretty good).

Lorena likely won't get in, but she'd be a decent candidate. O'Brien definitely isn't going to jump in with his buddy - McGinn - running.

Durkan is officially my horse in this race I can't vote in (to nobody's surprise)

Lorena has a bright future. She's young, her time will come. Durkan getting in probably precludes a Walkinshaw run, which is too bad. I was impressed by him. Maybe he should take on Grant for the other at large seat?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5270 on: May 11, 2017, 05:26:27 PM »

Just realized there's a special in 2017 in the 31st LD. Is there any chance of Democrats flipping this seat? Do they even have a candidate yet?
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #5271 on: May 11, 2017, 05:42:42 PM »

The Durkin article also mentions the possibility of Rep. Jessyn Farrell getting in. Farrell was a major supporter of Walkinshaw's congressional run.

Currently my preferences (Like KS I live nowhere near Seattle):

1) McGinn
2) Oliver
3) Durkin

Hasegawa would be #1 if not for his Sound Transit stance. Durkin seems competent but her attorney background might make her a bit too law-and-ordery for my tastes.

Just realized there's a special in 2017 in the 31st LD. Is there any chance of Democrats flipping this seat? Do they even have a candidate yet?

I doubt it. 31st is rough territory. Half of Auburn, Enumclaw, Bonney Lake, and all the rural area in between. It also slid from a narrow Obama '12 seat to one Trump carried, even as he was getting destroyed in King County.

Side note: I hate the way this district is drawn, there's no reason to have two State Senators from Auburn.
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« Reply #5272 on: May 11, 2017, 06:25:13 PM »

1) Still Cary Moon, who's an actual urbanist.
2) Durkan, she could rise/fall depending on her housing/transit views
3) McGinn, what does Keep Seattle even mean??? That kind of worries me.
4) Oliver, I like her as a candidate and her unequivocal BLM agenda, I just wish she could hop aboard the housing train
5) Hasegawa, no, just no.

Candidates not in:

Harrell: light weight, no.
Gonzalez: she's building her name and chops, I agree with KS, she's got a bright future. Would love to see her run in 4 or 8 years.
Walkinshaw: Dream candidate. He's FBBPW (Flawless Beautiful Brady Pinero Walkinshaw)
Farrell: who now? That's what most people probably think. I imagine she'd do a fine job.
Pederson: yes, but I don't think he has any desire to leave Olympia
Kim: Negative chance. What does a LM even do? Help craft policy?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5273 on: May 11, 2017, 07:31:34 PM »

1) Still Cary Moon, who's an actual urbanist.
2) Durkan, she could rise/fall depending on her housing/transit views
3) McGinn, what does Keep Seattle even mean??? That kind of worries me.
4) Oliver, I like her as a candidate and her unequivocal BLM agenda, I just wish she could hop aboard the housing train
5) Hasegawa, no, just no.

Candidates not in:

Harrell: light weight, no.
Gonzalez: she's building her name and chops, I agree with KS, she's got a bright future. Would love to see her run in 4 or 8 years.
Walkinshaw: Dream candidate. He's FBBPW (Flawless Beautiful Brady Pinero Walkinshaw)
Farrell: who now? That's what most people probably think. I imagine she'd do a fine job.
Pederson: yes, but I don't think he has any desire to leave Olympia
Kim: Negative chance. What does a LM even do? Help craft policy?

We need to make Flawless Beautiful Brady Yellow heart a thing

Farrell is popular with STB (Seattle Transit Blog). Unlike Hasegawa, her entire district is in town. She'd be good if Flawless Beautiful Brady Yellow heart doesn't get in

Oliver's housing platform makes her an utter nonstarter and unserious candidate IMO. Besides her turf is going to be seriously eaten into by McSchwinn and Bobby-H
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5274 on: May 11, 2017, 07:32:27 PM »

The Durkin article also mentions the possibility of Rep. Jessyn Farrell getting in. Farrell was a major supporter of Walkinshaw's congressional run.

Currently my preferences (Like KS I live nowhere near Seattle):

1) McGinn
2) Oliver
3) Durkin

Hasegawa would be #1 if not for his Sound Transit stance. Durkin seems competent but her attorney background might make her a bit too law-and-ordery for my tastes.

Just realized there's a special in 2017 in the 31st LD. Is there any chance of Democrats flipping this seat? Do they even have a candidate yet?

I doubt it. 31st is rough territory. Half of Auburn, Enumclaw, Bonney Lake, and all the rural area in between. It also slid from a narrow Obama '12 seat to one Trump carried, even as he was getting destroyed in King County.

Side note: I hate the way this district is drawn, there's no reason to have two State Senators from Auburn.

The map isn't even a gerrymander, it's just a sh*t map
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