Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 837025 times)
Seattle
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« Reply #5300 on: May 31, 2017, 12:42:43 PM »

I'm really liking a number of Farrell's responses: https://thecisforcrank.com/2017/05/31/the-c-is-for-crank-interviews-jessyn-farrell/

That's perhaps the most in-depth interview I've seen with any of the mayoral candidates. Durkan so far has not bothered to really stake out her positions. I'd like a similar interview.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5301 on: May 31, 2017, 01:41:48 PM »

So far Durkan seems to be trying to Coast on her connections - not sure that will cut it. Farrell resigning is a money-where-the-mouth-is move - good for her. She's already my preferred candidate, and that interview only reinforced that. A McGinn-Farrell runoff is a wet dream for urbanists IMO
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5302 on: June 05, 2017, 12:43:24 PM »

Since things won't heat up in WA til the fall...

1. Who is going to replace Farrell in the House?

2. With some of the annexations that have gone into effect in King County since 2010, how do some of you see the LDs shaking out differently to keep city boundaries whole? I believe my area, Finn Hill, being unincorporated is what attached it to the 1st LD for reasons that elude me
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Seattle
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« Reply #5303 on: June 06, 2017, 12:46:31 PM »

I have no idea who will replace her, some anonymous misc. Seattle D. Tongue

The 1st LD was once more marginal than it is now, particularly downballot. Perhaps Finn Hill/Kingsgate were more reliably D, so they got tacked on. Kirkland will have around 60% of the population needed for an LD, so perhaps will see the city kept together come 2022.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5304 on: June 06, 2017, 04:29:40 PM »

It'll be interesting to see how they stitch together East King, that's for sure.

Some news: apparently (per DKE) Stuckart is out against McMorris Rodgers. Apparently health concerns in family, though the potential entrance of Lisa Brown and a clear run at Spokane Mayor in '19 probably made the choice much easier. He's young and has time to wait
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #5305 on: June 06, 2017, 04:30:58 PM »

I don't know enough about current municipal boundaries to comment.


In (sad) news: Ben Stuckart is dropping out of WA-05 due to family health concerns.

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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5306 on: June 06, 2017, 04:32:13 PM »

It'll be interesting to see how they stitch together East King, that's for sure.

Some news: apparently (per DKE) Stuckart is out against McMorris Rodgers. Apparently health concerns in family, though the potential entrance of Lisa Brown and a clear run at Spokane Mayor in '19 probably made the choice much easier. He's young and has time to wait

If Stuckart dropping out is followed by Brown getting in immediately after, I'd be very very excited.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5307 on: June 06, 2017, 04:42:50 PM »

It'll be interesting to see how they stitch together East King, that's for sure.

Some news: apparently (per DKE) Stuckart is out against McMorris Rodgers. Apparently health concerns in family, though the potential entrance of Lisa Brown and a clear run at Spokane Mayor in '19 probably made the choice much easier. He's young and has time to wait

If Stuckart dropping out is followed by Brown getting in immediately after, I'd be very very excited.

She'd be a superior candidate, IMO, though being a former Senate leader may hurt her (bringing a med school to WSU, an adored institution over there, would be a plus). Besides, I've always been skeptical of Stuckart - who is a bit of an abrasive personality and definitely left of the average district voter - winning here. He's a shoo-in for Mayor in 2019, though.
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5308 on: June 06, 2017, 05:39:58 PM »

On the Seattle Mayor topic: It seems like Murray's establishment support has fractured somewhat between Durkan and Farrell. The more liberal side of the establishment (including recently Cyrus Habib, Rob Johnson, & Nicole Macri) is backing Farrell while Durkan is getting support from the Chamber of Commerce types.

Bodes well for the hopeful scenario of a McGinn/Farrell run-off.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5309 on: June 06, 2017, 08:57:49 PM »

On the Seattle Mayor topic: It seems like Murray's establishment support has fractured somewhat between Durkan and Farrell. The more liberal side of the establishment (including recently Cyrus Habib, Rob Johnson, & Nicole Macri) is backing Farrell while Durkan is getting support from the Chamber of Commerce types.

Bodes well for the hopeful scenario of a McGinn/Farrell run-off.

I'd much rather have Farrell's supporters than Durkan's in a Seattle race

As for your suggested runoff... be still my beating heart
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Seattle
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« Reply #5310 on: June 14, 2017, 01:06:10 PM »

Our Cranky favorite's interview with Durkan: https://thecisforcrank.com/2017/06/12/the-c-is-for-crank-interviews-jenny-durkan/

Notice in the comments that former mayor Greg Nickels noted a small factual correction. Got a kick out of that.

Durkan seems decent. I'm thinking we'll see a Durkan-Farrell runoff. Despite my initial thinking, Farrell has managed to increase her profile and pick up support from many urbanists/transit supporters, which represent a significant chunk of the primary vote.

We wondered who would replace Farrell in the state house: yesterday longtime local Democratic leader Javier Valdez was appointed by the King County Council. The other two choices were Nigel Herbig, a Kenmore City Councilmember and legislative aide to Farrell, and Melissa Taylor, a former software engineer who cofounded a group that trains Democratic women to run for office.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5311 on: June 14, 2017, 01:29:21 PM »

Imagine if they'd picked Roger Valdez (for a second I misread your post)

Durkan-Farrell would be an interesting race. Farrell would probably be my choice in that case - bolder on urban/transportation issues
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5312 on: June 15, 2017, 01:18:13 PM »

Buzz on RRH: Ed Murray considering write in campaign now that the lawsuit has been dropped

The only way this race ends has to be with the Big One striking on 11/6. There's just no other way.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5313 on: June 16, 2017, 04:50:24 PM »

After weeks of touchy-feely soft glow Englund ads on CNBC I saw my first attack ad against her from Dhingra. Definitely talked up her connex with D.C. Republicans and tied her to Trump
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5314 on: June 19, 2017, 04:47:57 PM »

Out of boredom, I drew up alternative to Washington's current State Senate districts. Figure I'd ask for feedback from other Washington posters:









Districts with Obama 2008 and Senate 2010 numbers:


SD-01 (Bothell) - 62/36 Obama, 54/45 Murray Safe D
SD-02 (Fort Lewis-Eatonville) - 48/49 McCain, 44/56 Rossi Safe R
SD-03: (Spokane) - 54/43 Obama, 50/49 Murray Lean D
SD-04 (Spokane Valley) - 42/54 McCain, 38/61 Rossi Safe R
SD-05 (Issaquah-Sammamish) - 59/39 Obama, 50/50 Murray (4 vote difference) Likely D
SD-06 (West Spokane/Cheney) - 54/43 Obama, 50/50 Murray (9 vote difference) Toss-Up/Lean D
SD-07 (Okanogan Highlands) - 40/57 McCain, 35/64 Rossi Safe R
SD-08 (Richland-Kennewick) - 36/61 McCain, 36/63 Rossi Safe R
SD-09 (Walla Walla-Pullman) - 43/54 McCain, 39/61 Rossi Safe R
SD-10 (Anacortes-Whidbey Island)  55/42 Obama, 52/47 Murray Lean/Likely D
SD-11 (Burien-Tukwila) - 69/29 Obama, 65/34 Murray Safe D
SD-12 (Wenatchee-Ellensburg) - 43/55 McCain, 36/63 Rossi Safe R
SD-13 (Moses Lake-Ephrata) - 36/61 McCain, 30/69 Rossi Safe R
SD-14 (Yakima-Goldendale) - 43/54 McCain, 36/63 Rossi Safe R
SD-15 (Yakima-Sunnyside) - 47/51 McCain, 40/59 Rossi Likely/Safe R
SD-16 (Pasco-Ritzville) - 35/62 McCain, 33/66 Rossi Safe R
SD-17 (Vancouver-Camas) - 53/45 Obama, 46/53 Rossi Toss-Up
SD-18 (Battle Ground-Brush Prairie) - 45/52 McCain, 39/60 Rossi Safe R
SD-19 (Longview-South Bend) - 53/43 Obama, 47/52 Rossi Toss-Up
SD-20 (Centralia-Tenino) - 45/52 McCain, 40/59 Rossi Safe R
SD-21 (Everett) - 62/35 Obama, 56/43 Murray Safe D
SD-22 (Olympia) - 65/33 Obama, 61/38 Murray Safe D
SD-23 (Bainbridge Island-Bremerton) - 57/40 Obama, 53/46 Murray Safe D
SD-24 (Port Angeles-Port Townsend) - 56/41 Obama, 52/47 Murray Likely D
SD-25 (Puyallup-Orting) - 50/47 Obama, 44/55 Rossi Likely R
SD-26 (Port Orchard-Gig Harbor) - 49/48 Obama, 45/55 Rossi Toss-Up/Lean R
SD-27 (Tacoma) - 66/31 Obama, 61/38 Murray Safe D
SD-28 (University Place-Lakewood) - 56/41 Obama, 52/47 Murray Toss-Up/Lean D
SD-29 (Tacoma-Parkland) - 61/36 Obama, 56/43 Murray Safe D
SD-30 (Federal Way) - 60/38 Obama, 54/45 Murray Likely D
SD-31 (Enumclaw-North Bend) - 50/47 Obama, 43/56 Rossi Likely R
SD-32 (Edmonds-Lynwood) - 65/33 Obama, 59/40 Murray Safe D
SD-33 (Kent) - 60/38 Obama, 53/46 Murray Safe D
SD-34 (West Seattle-Vashon) - 80/17 Obama, 77/22 Murray Safe D
SD-35 (Aberdeen-Shelton) - 55/42 Obama, 50/49 Murray Toss-Up/Lean R
SD-36 (West Seattle) - 84/14 Obama, 81/18 Murray Safe D
SD-37 (Southwest Seattle) - 87/10 Obama, 86/13 Murray Safe D
SD-38 (Marysville-Camano Island) - 52/45 Obama, 46/53 Rossi Toss-Up/Lean R
SD-39 (Monroe-Granite Falls) - 53/44 Obama, 45/54 Rossi Likely R
SD-40 (Bellingham-Ferndale) - 66/31 Obama, 61/38 Murray Safe D
SD-41 (Renton-Newcastle) - 64/33 Obama, 58/41 Murray Safe D
SD-42 (Lynden-Mount Vernon) - 46/51 McCain, 40/59 Rossi Safe R
SD-43 (Seattle) - 87/11 Obama, 84/15 Murray Safe D
SD-44 (Lake Stevens-Mill Creek) - 57/40 Obama, 49/50 Rossi Toss-Up/Lean D
SD-45 (Kirkland-Redmond) - 65/33 Obama, 57/42 Murray Likely D
SD-46 (Shoreline-North Seattle) - 77/21 Obama, 74/25 Murray Safe D
SD-47 (Auburn-Bonney Lake) 53/45 Obama, 47/52 Rossi Toss-Up/Lean R
SD-48 (Bellevue-Mercer Island) - 63/34 Obama, 56/44 Murray Likely D
SD-49 (Vancouver)  - 58/39 Obama, 53/46 Rossi Safe D
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5315 on: June 21, 2017, 12:44:06 PM »


Got in late, and I imagine she's in a situation where she's everyone's #2 choice.
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5316 on: June 21, 2017, 02:25:45 PM »

There's also another (landline only!) poll being circulated done by an outfit called Wilson Strategies (Never heard of them). They appear to be backing or backed by Durkan judging by their website.

Link

Durkan - 30.1%
Hasegawa - 8.8%
McGinn - 6.3%
Moon - 4%
Oliver - 3.4%
Farrell - 2.1%

Looks very junk. No way Hasegawa is in second place.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5317 on: June 23, 2017, 01:00:07 PM »

I like your E WA districts, FWIW. Hard to swing 6 anymore D without making 3 more vulnerable, like what happened here. I like using I-90 as a divide, but Spokane gets super conservative super suddenly as you go north. Both would be swing districts IMO
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5318 on: June 23, 2017, 01:18:03 PM »

I like your E WA districts, FWIW. Hard to swing 6 anymore D without making 3 more vulnerable, like what happened here. I like using I-90 as a divide, but Spokane gets super conservative super suddenly as you go north. Both would be swing districts IMO

Eastern WA very easy to make nice looking districts, but the current map is a mess of making sure every incumbent is comfortable. I could have even drawn a competitive 14th that went 53/47 Obama by swapping some areas around, but I decided against it in favor of a much less competitive 15th.


Also Pierce county is probably the hardest county to make nice-looking districts for, for congressional maps or otherwise. It's population is spread out in weird ways, it has the Gig Harbor/Artondale portion that should've been put in Kitsap county, and it's voting precincts are all weirdly shaped too, for some reason.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5319 on: June 23, 2017, 02:22:19 PM »

I like your E WA districts, FWIW. Hard to swing 6 anymore D without making 3 more vulnerable, like what happened here. I like using I-90 as a divide, but Spokane gets super conservative super suddenly as you go north. Both would be swing districts IMO

Eastern WA very easy to make nice looking districts, but the current map is a mess of making sure every incumbent is comfortable. I could have even drawn a competitive 14th that went 53/47 Obama by swapping some areas around, but I decided against it in favor of a much less competitive 15th.


Also Pierce county is probably the hardest county to make nice-looking districts for, for congressional maps or otherwise. It's population is spread out in weird ways, it has the Gig Harbor/Artondale portion that should've been put in Kitsap county, and it's voting precincts are all weirdly shaped too, for some reason.

Pierce is a dumpster fire mapping wise. JBLM and Rainier are a big part of that IMO
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Seattle
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« Reply #5320 on: June 23, 2017, 03:01:10 PM »

I get what you're trying to do with your Yakima Hispanic district, but it makes for a terrible Clark-Columbia-Skamania-northern Yakima suburbs seat (though it looks nice visually). On the topic of aesthetics, I think it would be better to have Hanford given over to the lime green district, even it totally surrounds the Richland/Kennewick one.

Also, I don't buy those polls at all. There's no way Farrell would do so poorly - she has a built in base - the 104k (2010) residents in her NE Seattle district. Hasegawa doesn't really have this, as the 11th has roughly only 17k residents in Seattle, but he'll do well in the south end regardless, as his home is on Beacon Hill.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5321 on: June 23, 2017, 11:12:13 PM »

I get what you're trying to do with your Yakima Hispanic district, but it makes for a terrible Clark-Columbia-Skamania-northern Yakima suburbs seat (though it looks nice visually). On the topic of aesthetics, I think it would be better to have Hanford given over to the lime green district, even it totally surrounds the Richland/Kennewick one.

Also, I don't buy those polls at all. There's no way Farrell would do so poorly - she has a built in base - the 104k (2010) residents in her NE Seattle district. Hasegawa doesn't really have this, as the 11th has roughly only 17k residents in Seattle, but he'll do well in the south end regardless, as his home is on Beacon Hill.

One of those polls is landline only, BTW, though I don't recall which one. Anyways, I imagine a city as transient and young as Seattle is difficult to poll
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5322 on: June 24, 2017, 01:44:27 AM »
« Edited: June 24, 2017, 01:47:28 AM by publicunofficial »

I get what you're trying to do with your Yakima Hispanic district, but it makes for a terrible Clark-Columbia-Skamania-northern Yakima suburbs seat (though it looks nice visually). On the topic of aesthetics, I think it would be better to have Hanford given over to the lime green district, even it totally surrounds the Richland/Kennewick one.

I don't know where else I would put Skamania/Klickitat if not with the Yakima area. FWIW this was the other way I drew it:



14th (Brown) is majority-minority. 47% white, 42.8% hispanic, 6.1% Native American. 53-44 Obama, 46-53 Rossi.  15th (Orange) is only 36% hispanic, 38-60 McCain, 31-68 Rossi.

EDIT: Lol had to re-upload the image because the photobucket URL had the s-word in it and the forum filter broke it.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5323 on: June 28, 2017, 10:12:38 AM »

So now that we're 4 months out from the fall... predictions for Mayor and 45th SD?
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Seattle
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« Reply #5324 on: June 28, 2017, 11:23:03 AM »

Publicunofficial, I personally like your second map more. Even if it ends up splitting the Hispanic COI, I think it's got better contiguity. Argh, why cant the populations on each side of the mountains balance out!!

I think Dhingra will win. This is a district where tying Englund to Trump should work (though obviously the focus should be on local issues).

Here's my rambling #hottakes look on the race:

As for mayor/council, I'm really unsure. I got to shake hands with Durkan yesterday and will get to attend a small campaign event for Capitol Hill businesses tomorrow. I think that will cement my Farrell support and inform me of her electoral chances (not expecting her to convert me). But she's got the money, part of the establishment, and the "moderate" vote on her side, so perhaps that's enough of a base to get her to the November ballot.

I think Hasegawa really limits Oliver's chance of clinching the second spot, with his southeast Seattle base. Granted, Oliver's support is fairly evenly spread over the city, but it most certainly is higher in minority communities, concentrated around Hasegawa's turf. Or maybe I'm placing to much value on Hasegawa's sway in south Seattle.

That leaves Farrell, McGinn, and Moon. My biggest concern is that these three are going to equally split the establishment progressive vote - Seattle's largest voting bloc - and be eliminated from the runoff, particularly if my Oliver-Hasegawa theory is wrong. I'd say Moon is the least likely of the three to make it onward; her campaign's momentum feels like it's stalled. And who is her base as an activist? At least McGinn and Farrell have geographic bases. McGinn of course has name recognition... for better or worse, while 100k Seattleites have seen Farrell on the ballot thrice (though once unopposed).

I'm not enthused about a Durkan - Oliver runoff, but it would likely be landslide Durkan.
If not taken by Oliver, the second spot goes to perhaps McGinn or Farrell. In which case Durkan is slightly favored against McGinn and tossup against Farrell.

Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic on urbanist chances. After all, the deciding issues should be housing, homelessness, and transit. At least, I hope those are the issues... You never know.
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