Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 837321 times)
KingSweden
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« Reply #5350 on: July 22, 2017, 08:55:44 PM »

Discussed the 45th special with my father today while he helped me install a new door in my house. As I expected, he'll be voting Englund (he's a neverTrump conservative). I had no doubt he would, but I thought I'd share his reasoning.

Basically, all of the Dhingra flyers are focused almost entirely on either Trump (not a terrible idea) or Planned Parenthood (a more dubious focus in a state like WA). He didn't think she focuses enough on local issues, opposed to Englund. He's also of the mind that Democrats will impose an income tax the second they have the Senate.

I'm curious what some other WA posters think of this. I know there was chatter about an income tax in 2010, when Ds enjoyed much larger majorities. I'm really skeptical that they'd immolate their majorities (there's already enough heat over ST) over an income tax with a one-seat margin. I also doubt some of the more conservative Dems in the House would go for it. What do you all think?
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« Reply #5351 on: July 25, 2017, 05:02:43 PM »

Just wondering, but is Clinton's 84.22% the highest percentage a presidential D has gotten in Seattle? What was it in 2008/2012?

2016 probably is the largest D margin though 84.22-8.44 (with write-ins, or 86.04-8.62 without).
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Seattle
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« Reply #5352 on: July 25, 2017, 10:15:36 PM »

Just wondering, but is Clinton's 84.22% the highest percentage a presidential D has gotten in Seattle? What was it in 2008/2012?

2016 probably is the largest D margin though 84.22-8.44 (with write-ins, or 86.04-8.62 without).

To answer my own question: 2008 indeed saw a higher D % if including write-ins, but without 2016 stands king:
 
        Republican           Democratic           Third Parties
2016   8.44% 32,362   84.22% 323,126   7.34% 28,162
2012   13.74% 48,164   83.01% 290,963   3.25% 11,385
2008   13.81% 45,761   84.32% 279,441   1.87% 6,207
2004   17.87% 57,034   80.50% 256,974   1.63% 5,195
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ajc0918
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« Reply #5353 on: July 26, 2017, 11:30:03 AM »

Just wondering, but is Clinton's 84.22% the highest percentage a presidential D has gotten in Seattle? What was it in 2008/2012?

2016 probably is the largest D margin though 84.22-8.44 (with write-ins, or 86.04-8.62 without).

To answer my own question: 2008 indeed saw a higher D % if including write-ins, but without 2016 stands king:
 
        Republican           Democratic           Third Parties
2016   8.44% 32,362   84.22% 323,126   7.34% 28,162
2012   13.74% 48,164   83.01% 290,963   3.25% 11,385
2008   13.81% 45,761   84.32% 279,441   1.87% 6,207
2004   17.87% 57,034   80.50% 256,974   1.63% 5,195

Wow, is crazy how far Republicans have fallen. Not even just in 2016 but since 2004.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5354 on: July 26, 2017, 04:28:35 PM »

Just wondering, but is Clinton's 84.22% the highest percentage a presidential D has gotten in Seattle? What was it in 2008/2012?

2016 probably is the largest D margin though 84.22-8.44 (with write-ins, or 86.04-8.62 without).

To answer my own question: 2008 indeed saw a higher D % if including write-ins, but without 2016 stands king:
 
        Republican           Democratic           Third Parties
2016   8.44% 32,362   84.22% 323,126   7.34% 28,162
2012   13.74% 48,164   83.01% 290,963   3.25% 11,385
2008   13.81% 45,761   84.32% 279,441   1.87% 6,207
2004   17.87% 57,034   80.50% 256,974   1.63% 5,195

Wow, is crazy how far Republicans have fallen. Not even just in 2016 but since 2004.

The raw number declines even as Seattle booms. Remarkable.


Not from or currently residing in Seattle, so take my #analysis with a grain of salt, but I personally don't see Durkan winning by >10% in a runoff versus Oliver. Obviously I'm not at the vantage point to accurately predict anything, but I feel like, with activist energy & the grassroots on her side, Oliver could certainly make a single digit race against someone as uninspiring as Durkan, despite her enormous advantage in campaign $$$.

I doubt Oliver even makes the runoff. If even the Stranger, whose endorsement is valuable to the activist left, didn't endorse her...
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Seattle
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« Reply #5355 on: July 26, 2017, 06:20:02 PM »

Calculated some more.

Kirkland:
      Republican          Democratic        Third Parties
2016   23.99% 10,816   65.61% 29,576   10.40% 4,689
2012   34.42% 14,838   62.60% 26,993   2.98% 1,284
2008   32.51% 8,037   65.53% 16,199   1.96% 485
2004   40.32% 9,555   58.32% 13,821   1.36% 321

Bellevue:
     Republican              Democratic      Third Parties
2016   24.58% 15,175   66.11% 40,820   9.31% 5,747
2012   35.76% 22,083   61.59% 38,036   2.65% 1,634
2008   34.41% 19,531   63.82% 36,224   1.77% 1,004
2004   41.68% 24,089   57.01% 32,952   1.31% 756

Shoreline:
        Republican             Democratic      Third Parties
2016   17.99% 5,484   72.69% 22,152   9.32% 2,841
2012   24.24% 7,123   72.73% 21,376   3.03% 890
2008   25.06% 7,184   72.88% 20,895   2.06% 591
2004   31.23% 8,730   67.27% 18,806   1.50% 420


Not from or currently residing in Seattle, so take my #analysis with a grain of salt, but I personally don't see Durkan winning by >10% in a runoff versus Oliver. Obviously I'm not at the vantage point to accurately predict anything, but I feel like, with activist energy & the grassroots on her side, Oliver could certainly make a single digit race against someone as uninspiring as Durkan, despite her enormous advantage in campaign $$$.

I doubt Oliver even makes the runoff. If even the Stranger, whose endorsement is valuable to the activist left, didn't endorse her...

I don't know, I personally think she is going to make the runoff. Though who knows, maybe a more pleasant surprise is in store and Farrell or Moon get in.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5356 on: July 26, 2017, 11:04:54 PM »

Calculated some more.

Kirkland:
      Republican          Democratic        Third Parties
2016   23.99% 10,816   65.61% 29,576   10.40% 4,689
2012   34.42% 14,838   62.60% 26,993   2.98% 1,284
2008   32.51% 8,037   65.53% 16,199   1.96% 485
2004   40.32% 9,555   58.32% 13,821   1.36% 321

Bellevue:
     Republican              Democratic      Third Parties
2016   24.58% 15,175   66.11% 40,820   9.31% 5,747
2012   35.76% 22,083   61.59% 38,036   2.65% 1,634
2008   34.41% 19,531   63.82% 36,224   1.77% 1,004
2004   41.68% 24,089   57.01% 32,952   1.31% 756

Shoreline:
        Republican             Democratic      Third Parties
2016   17.99% 5,484   72.69% 22,152   9.32% 2,841
2012   24.24% 7,123   72.73% 21,376   3.03% 890
2008   25.06% 7,184   72.88% 20,895   2.06% 591
2004   31.23% 8,730   67.27% 18,806   1.50% 420


Not from or currently residing in Seattle, so take my #analysis with a grain of salt, but I personally don't see Durkan winning by >10% in a runoff versus Oliver. Obviously I'm not at the vantage point to accurately predict anything, but I feel like, with activist energy & the grassroots on her side, Oliver could certainly make a single digit race against someone as uninspiring as Durkan, despite her enormous advantage in campaign $$$.

I doubt Oliver even makes the runoff. If even the Stranger, whose endorsement is valuable to the activist left, didn't endorse her...

I don't know, I personally think she is going to make the runoff. Though who knows, maybe a more pleasant surprise is in store and Farrell or Moon get in.


Remarkable how much the Eastside has shifted
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #5357 on: July 27, 2017, 02:05:46 AM »

Most of my friends in the Seattle (20-something not-especially-politically-active leftists) have only heard of Oliver out of all the candidates. She has a serious movement behind her, I expect her to make the run-off and should not be underestimated there.

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publicunofficial
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« Reply #5358 on: July 29, 2017, 04:23:10 PM »

When your district is one of the wealthiest in the country:



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KingSweden
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« Reply #5359 on: July 30, 2017, 10:58:24 PM »

When your district is one of the wealthiest in the country:





An income tax would instantaneously kill any Democrat's campaign in this district. Fearmongering over one is really Englund's only chance
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5360 on: July 30, 2017, 11:03:16 PM »


*sigh* if Seattle votes for hipstery intersectional virtue signaling over an effective progressive like Moon or Farrell, it deserves the unaffordable housing and chaotic city government it's going to get
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heatcharger
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« Reply #5361 on: July 31, 2017, 12:04:39 PM »


*sigh* if Seattle votes for hipstery intersectional virtue signaling over an effective progressive like Moon or Farrell, it deserves the unaffordable housing and chaotic city government it's going to get

Who do you think would be favored in a Durkan-Oliver runoff? I'm obviously rooting for the former in that matchup.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5362 on: July 31, 2017, 12:15:51 PM »


*sigh* if Seattle votes for hipstery intersectional virtue signaling over an effective progressive like Moon or Farrell, it deserves the unaffordable housing and chaotic city government it's going to get

Who do you think would be favored in a Durkan-Oliver runoff? I'm obviously rooting for the former in that matchup.

Durkan, I think, but it'd be closer than it has any reason to be. Hopefully we get one of Moon or Farrell into the runoff, I think they could knock Durkan out in November (I really do think The Stranger's endorsement of Moon will boost her, but that may just be my wishful thinking. Any chance of an oliver Mayoralty would be a disaster for urbanism and affordability in Seattle)
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Crumpets
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« Reply #5363 on: August 01, 2017, 02:01:50 PM »
« Edited: August 01, 2017, 03:24:23 PM by Crumpets »

Just voted. Here's my ballot, mostly so I can remember my votes for Port Commissioners when the tallies come in tonight.

King County Prop 1: Approved
King County Executive: Dow Constantine
Port Commissioner Position #1: Bea Querido-Rico
Port Commissioner Position #3: Ahmed Abdi
Port Commissioner Position #4: Preeti Shridhar
Mayor of Seattle: Cary Moon*
Seattle City Council Position #8: Teresa Mosqueda
Seattle City Council Position #9: Lorena Gonzalez
Seattle School District #1 Director District #4: Eden Mack

*More or less a dart throw with the Stranger's Endorsement tipping the scale (I was convinced they'd endorse Oliver, but they gave Moon a pretty passionate endorsement, which tells me they saw something pretty darn promising to risk upsetting their probably 70% pro-Oliver readership). I have a feeling the runoff will be Oliver vs. Durkan, and I figure I'll reevaluate things then.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #5364 on: August 01, 2017, 02:19:35 PM »

Polls close at 11 ET / 8 PT right?
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #5365 on: August 01, 2017, 02:27:17 PM »

Yes, though because of vbm system in a close races  we may not know who won for a few days.
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Seattle
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« Reply #5366 on: August 01, 2017, 02:36:07 PM »

"Polls" close at 8PM, but what that really means is that all ballots must be postmarked by 8 PM or returned to one of 70+ ballot boxes around the county by 8 PM.

As of 12PM, turnout is fairly a disappointing 22.44%, or 104,028 votes. My guess is that it'll increase to 130,000 votes, or 28% turnout.

My ballot:

King County Prop 1: Approved
King County Executive: Dow Constantine's immaculate hair
Port Commissioner Position #1: Port cretin, Creighton
Port Commissioner Position #3: Port shill, Stephanie Bowman
Port Commissioner Position #4: Preeti Shridhar
Mayor of Seattle: FBUJ<3<3<3: Flawless Beautiful Urbanist Jessyn Farrell<3<3<3
Seattle City Council Position #8: Teresa Mosqueda
Seattle City Council Position #9: Lorena Gonzalez
I honestly don't remember who or if I voted for a Seattle School District director...
Which is embarrassing, as a product of Seattle Public Schools...
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5367 on: August 01, 2017, 03:07:34 PM »

I'd share my ballot but all I got to vote for was Fire Commissioner where I live.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5368 on: August 01, 2017, 03:40:59 PM »

"Polls" close at 8PM, but what that really means is that all ballots must be postmarked by 8 PM or returned to one of 70+ ballot boxes around the county by 8 PM.

As of 12PM, turnout is fairly a disappointing 22.44%, or 104,028 votes. My guess is that it'll increase to 130,000 votes, or 28% turnout.

My ballot:

King County Prop 1: Approved
King County Executive: Dow Constantine's immaculate hair
Port Commissioner Position #1: Port cretin, Creighton
Port Commissioner Position #3: Port shill, Stephanie Bowman
Port Commissioner Position #4: Preeti Shridhar
Mayor of Seattle: FBUJ<3<3<3: Flawless Beautiful Urbanist Jessyn Farrell<3<3<3
Seattle City Council Position #8: Teresa Mosqueda
Seattle City Council Position #9: Lorena Gonzalez
I honestly don't remember who or if I voted for a Seattle School District director...
Which is embarrassing, as a product of Seattle Public Schools...

This would be my exact ballot if I lived in Seattle

For unclear reasons my ballot didn't show up, suffice to say to all of you waiting with bated breath on how KingSwedem voted in the scorching hot Kirkland City Council Position Whatever race will have to be disappointed.

So I helped my wife research in the voters guide the issues at play that are important to her, and she voted successfully.
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Seattle
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« Reply #5369 on: August 01, 2017, 06:10:48 PM »

You can print your ballot out!
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5370 on: August 01, 2017, 09:07:37 PM »


I will remember this for November, when the candidates for Lake Washington School Board Pos. X will surely need my vote to push them over the line
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heatcharger
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« Reply #5371 on: August 01, 2017, 10:05:04 PM »

Any good links for results other than DD and AP?
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Alaska2392
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« Reply #5372 on: August 01, 2017, 10:09:06 PM »
« Edited: August 01, 2017, 10:13:54 PM by NRS11 »

Don't get me wrong, I have always thought that Cary Moon was a strong, but not perfect candidate but I was not expecting her to be 2nd place on primary night.  Stranger endorsement apparently does have some power.

Durkan far ahead at 31.6%.  

https://info.kingcounty.gov/kcelections/Results/web-results.aspx?eid=8

In the primary race to control the state senate D is ahead 50.51% - 42.57% (R) - 6.86% (Candidate with no party preference).
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Seattle
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« Reply #5373 on: August 01, 2017, 10:19:07 PM »

The real question... can Moon keep her lead over Oliver with the 35-40,000 ballots still left to count.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #5374 on: August 01, 2017, 10:19:34 PM »
« Edited: August 01, 2017, 11:03:54 PM by Crumpets »

Left wing candidates tend to perform very well in the post-election day tally. I wouldn't be surprised if Oliver still pulls it out in the end. But I'm very happy to see my last-minute decision might actually have not been a thrown away vote!
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