Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[publicunofficial]

I'm almost 100% certain that, barring retirements, Washington's congressional delegation will remain the same until next redistricting. DelBene can survive, and unless Reichert or JHB tries to take on Murray or Inslee, there won't be any competitive seats.


All of the action will be focused on Democrats trying to primary Rodney Tom and Tim Sheldon.

[publicunofficial]

Republican State-Sen. Mike Carrell is dead, triggering a special election.


SD-28 is basically the Tacoma suburbs, and Obama got 54.4% here in 2012. This is a prime pick-up for Democrats, and will dismantle the Tomocracy assuming we hold SD-26.

[publicunofficial]

If the D's could hold SD-26 in 2010, they can hold it in 2014. Granted, I'm not sure how significantly different it was redrawn from the old map and if Schlichter is as good of a politician as Kilmer.

SD-28 should be a pickup OPPORTUNITY, as should a handful of other seats:

-SD-41 is south Bellevue and Mercer Island and parts of Renton; D's at least have a fighting chance here, especially with a conservative-inclined candidate
-SD-42 includes most of Bellingham, but also northern Whatcom County. Fighting chance here too.

Tom, of course, is vulnerable in a primary and you can bet the D's will spend hard to oust him here. Those are the only three pickups I can think of. Not sure where on the map there's a vulnerable D outside of the Olympic Peninsula and maybe Andy Billig in Spokane.

The Olympic Peninsula is safe so long as Hargrove doesn't retire. He's popular around here, and even the ultra-liberals like myself who hate the way he votes on social issues realize that he's one of the few who can hold the seat.

[publicunofficial]

Is anyone paying attention to the Seattle Mayoral primary?

For those who need brushing up: http://apps.seattletimes.com/elections/2013/mayoral-race-2013/


I for one like Ed Murray and Peter Steinbrueck. I really like Gray, but she doesn't stand a chance.

[publicunofficial]

I'm thinking McGinn continues the Seattle tradition of Mayors not surviving the primary.

[publicunofficial]

I think Murray beats McGinn in the general. I'm assuming all of Harrell's and Steinbrueck's support moves over to him.

[publicunofficial]

My main problem with McGinn is that while he has good ideas and good policies, he is utterly incapable of putting them in action.

[publicunofficial]

Also, I'm fascinated by the Sawant candidacy. The Stranger support and her 2012 campaign obviously helped her in the 43rd, and I'm sure identity politics played a role (only woman and only person of color in the race), but she still did remarkably well given how little money she spent. And given that she self-identified as a socialist on her doorbelling pieces, which I think is still a net negative (but maybe not?).

If she wins... holy cow I cannot wait to see what the Seattle Times does.

Most likely? Get butthurt and write an editorial every time she does anything liberal.

What'll be worth watching is just how mad they get.

[publicunofficial]

http://www.seattlemet.com/news-and-profiles/publicola/articles/morning-fizz-escalating-list-of-council-endorsements-september-2013

Bruce Harrell has endorsed Ed Murray. Assuming his supporters follow his lead and support Murray as well, McGinn is pretty much finished.

[publicunofficial]

I'm conflicted on I-522. On one hand, most GMO's are completely harmless and make food more affordable for the poor. On the other hand, f**k Monsanto.

[publicunofficial]

http://www.seattlemet.com/data/files/2013/10/attachment/132/SeattleResults.pdf


PPP has done their first poll of Seattle's mayor race, on behalf of the League of Conservation Voters (Who have endorsed Murray)

McGinn has a 30/49 approval rating, and Murray has a 56/19 favorability. Therefore it's no surprise that Murray leads McGinn 52/28.

Also of note: 96% of Seattle citizens plan on voting, with the remaining 4% are somewhat likely.

[publicunofficial]

Made up my mind for next week.

Voting No on I-517
Voting Yes on I-522
Voting to maintain on all the Advisory Votes

[publicunofficial]

Finally, I still really, really don't get I-522.  I get hating the No on I-522 campaign, but I don't get liking I-522.  It really makes no sense beyond the most superficial levels, and it seems very shoddily written too.  Does any person leaning Yes want to explain?

It's not the greatest law ever, but it's upsides outweigh it's downsides and as you mentioned, the anti-522 campaign is hate-worthy.

Also, I don't live in King County so my opinion doesn't matter, but can anyone voice their concerns about Sawant? She seems pretty decent to me.

[publicunofficial]

Finally, I still really, really don't get I-522.  I get hating the No on I-522 campaign, but I don't get liking I-522.  It really makes no sense beyond the most superficial levels, and it seems very shoddily written too.  Does any person leaning Yes want to explain?

It's not the greatest law ever, but it's upsides outweigh it's downsides and as you mentioned, the anti-522 campaign is hate-worthy.

Also, I don't live in King County so my opinion doesn't matter, but can anyone voice their concerns about Sawant? She seems pretty decent to me.

Im not from Seattle either, but the 15$ an hour minimum wage is an awful idea.

Forgive me if I don't take my political advice from a libertarian.

[publicunofficial]

I'm not sure if I understand this continued push for incremental increases in the minimum wage. Sure, if it were to keep up with inflation that would make sense, but inflation has been near zero for a number of years. Washington already has the highest minimum wage in the country, and no other state is particularly close. What I find most perturbing about this push is that there is no apparent long-term target in mind; it feels as is the goal is just to increase the minimum wage in perpetuity. Certainly this can't work forever; at some point we should start to see negative impacts from such increases that outweigh positive effects. We can't expect to continuously increase the costs of business without firms taking some measures to maintain their bottom line, whether in the form of higher prices, lower hiring, relocation, etc.

Is there some particular reason that Sawant wants a $15 minimum wage out of all the possible choices she could have picked? Is there some rigorous process she used to arrive at this number? Or is it that $15 is just a nice round number that works well as a slogan? If so, it seems a remarkably unscientific and dare I say dogmatic pursuit on her part.

Studies show that the minimum wage in and of itself has little impact on employment, and that its marginal increases have few short-term effects on the economy, though they do produce long-term distortions through less hiring in relevant industries, more underemployment, and decreased job length for workers at the minimum wage, with differential impacts depending on labor elasticities. As such, I don't have a problem with its existence, but its not a free lunch so to speak, and neither is increasing it continuously. I sympathize with its goals, but I think there are better ways to achieve similar outcomes.

It costs more to live in Seattle than it does in the rest of Washington, even if you're just renting an apartment. Having the minimum wage for Seattle be the same for Yakima would be stupid, and $15/hour would be enough to be sure that every worker in Seattle can afford to live in the city and buy what they need to to survive.

[publicunofficial]

I've decided to vote no on I-522, and I am increasingly annoyed by the Yes campaign. I'm far more bothered by I-517 though. I think if it passes people will come to dislike it pretty quickly.

Anyone smart enough to read the Voter's Guide they received in the mail would vote against I-517. "The annoying guys who ask for your signature would be allowed to petition at high school football games" is a pretty compelling argument.

I was also surprised to see Rob McKenna was one of the authors of the "Vote No" argument.

[publicunofficial]

Murray is crushing McGinn, I-517 is going down in flames. I-522 is close with Reject leading, and SD-26 is literally 50/50 with Angle ahead by a little over 100 votes.

[publicunofficial]

I hope Prop 1 passes. Publicaly-financed elections is an interesting idea that needs to be discussed more.

Also, Go Sawant!

[publicunofficial]

State Sen. Nick Harper (D) has resigned, to spend more time with his family. His Everett-based seat is pretty Safe D territory.

[publicunofficial]

Inslee suspends death penalty

He's re-won my vote, but I'm afraid he might lose a few others.

[publicunofficial]

Inslee suspends death penalty

He's re-won my vote, but I'm afraid he might lose a few others.

A LOT of others, you mean...

Washington hasn't executed a prisoner in over 10 years. It's hardly a hot-button issue here.

[publicunofficial]

NIMBY's gonna NIMBY

[publicunofficial]

Maybe not THE dullest midterm


I-594 will create background checks on ALL gun sales. I-591 would limit background checks except for those required by federal law. I know which one I'm voting for, but I could see either one passing.

Dueling initiatives are always fun.

[publicunofficial]

Rodney Tom is dropping his re-election bid, citing health problems and caring for his elderly father.


Good riddance

[publicunofficial]

Rodney Tom is dropping his re-election bid, citing health problems and caring for his elderly father.


Good riddance

D+1?

Most likely yeah. It's a Lean-Likey D seat, and I doubt anyone joins the MCC after this.