Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[KingSweden]

Figured I'd check this thread out and see if I could get the discussion up and running again.

Though the interesting WA races aren't til 2016 (Patty Murray and Jay Inslee both facing the voters), what are the current thoughts on 2014? Who are potential targets for both parties in the state house or in CDs? (Only Suzan DelBene comes to mind as being a particularly vulnerable incumbent. Most other seats seem safe).

On another note... how do you suppose the Seattle mayoral election will go down?

[KingSweden]

I don't know much about Wyman, but I doubt opposing something like that would do much to help her politically in a state as liberal as WA

[KingSweden]

If the D's could hold SD-26 in 2010, they can hold it in 2014. Granted, I'm not sure how significantly different it was redrawn from the old map and if Schlichter is as good of a politician as Kilmer.

SD-28 should be a pickup OPPORTUNITY, as should a handful of other seats:

-SD-41 is south Bellevue and Mercer Island and parts of Renton; D's at least have a fighting chance here, especially with a conservative-inclined candidate
-SD-42 includes most of Bellingham, but also northern Whatcom County. Fighting chance here too.

Tom, of course, is vulnerable in a primary and you can bet the D's will spend hard to oust him here. Those are the only three pickups I can think of. Not sure where on the map there's a vulnerable D outside of the Olympic Peninsula and maybe Andy Billig in Spokane.

[KingSweden]

My bad on SD-41 - I read on Wikipedia that Litzow was "first elected" in 2010.

[KingSweden]

Dow Constantine - your 2020 Democratic candidate for Governor

[KingSweden]

Saw back a bit in the thread that the Senate Republicans have a new leader. Will this affect the MCC in any noticeable way?

[KingSweden]

McKenna was uniquely suited to win in '04 and '08 - a moderate East King Republican for whom I cast my ballot for Governor. That was before East King started to shift blue (Atlas red) more rapidly and McKenna joined the Obamacare suit (ill-advised in WA) and started going to Tea Party rallies (even more ill-advised in WA).

The GOP's situation in WA is similar to what it will soon be in Virginia and has been in many Midwest states for a long time - consigned to rural areas where they are dominant while statewide wins are racked up in the major metro area, which swings D. There are still some East King County pubs who have a potential future (Andy Hill, Steve Litzow and Reagan Dunn, really), but the party has lost a lot of ground in the Seattle suburbs just in the past four or five years and is increasingly reliant on Eastern WA and the southwest. They'll need a new coalition to win statewide again anytime soon without a guy like McKenna.

[KingSweden]

Unlike it's southern neighbor though where the GOP cupboard is bare, the Republicans have actually put up some halfway decent candidates in WA State, but they still can't win.  Yes, we could make the argument that Gregoire stole the 2004 Gubernatorial race, but she won again in 2008 by a clear margin in Rossi re-match.  It also looks like the eastern most counties in the state are getting bluer as the years pass.

And Inslee, who might have been one of the dullest and least charismatic candidates to ever run for Governor, beat the GOP's best candidate in a generation in a year when the state trended R as a whole (admittedly not by much). The GOP's base is in the Eastern part of the state, specifically in the Tri-Cities, Yakima and the eastern and northern Spokane suburbs, and that makes their policies and outlook anathema even to moderate McKenna-Obama voters in King County, which is where elections are won in this state.

[KingSweden]

I'm not sure that there are really that many flippable seats on the map for the GOP, since they maximized their gains in 2010 and many D seats were drawn to be safer since then, but I do think that the D's have a good chance of knocking out Harris and O'Ban and (kind of) knocking out Tom, even though he's technically a Democrat. Just losing Tom would cause the MCC to collapse, it seems like, and I think there'll be at least one more flip.

I saw somewhere somebody talking about the Democrats flipping 4 to 5 seats, which I think is ludicrous, but if so maybe they could start with my local Senator, Michael Baumgardner...

[KingSweden]

Inslee suspends death penalty

He's re-won my vote, but I'm afraid he might lose a few others.

Uhh, that's not true.Cal Coburn Brown, 2010?

A LOT of others, you mean...

Washington hasn't executed a prisoner in over 10 years. It's hardly a hot-button issue here.

Good for him. I voted for McKenna in '12, but I like Inslee (so far). Better than Gregoire, at least...

[KingSweden]

Well this is very welcome news

In my opinion we've now got the 48th pretty well locked down. I think there's a good chance Cyrus Habib jumps up to the Senate race (and then McBride drops down to Habib's House seat).

I'm very nervous about the 30th. The 44th is also at risk (Hobbs recently got a rich guy opponent).

Our best shots at a pick-up are the 45th and the 28th, though I'm not sure in which order. The 6th is interesting as well. Our candidate is raising good money and Baumgartner has had... issues.

The 35th is a bit of a question mark - the real Democrat is running a serious campaign and there's a Republican in the race. Sheldon only needs 34% to make it to the general though, which he should be able to get.

I don't think we have much of any shot at the 26th or the 47th. We don't even have a candidate in the latter.

I guess I'd say 60-40 odds the Senate is controlled by Republicans + Sheldon next year.

Baumgartner is a gigantic hack. I can't wait for him to go down in flames (I live in his district, most definitely voting for Cowan. There are a lot of affluent Ds up here on the South Hill who probably won't vote for Baumgartner again.)

[KingSweden]

lol

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20140724/NEWS01/140729487/State-Rep.-Hope-to-resign-over-out-of-state-voter-registration

Rep. Mike Hope (R-Snohomish) is resigning because he registered to vote (probably accidentally) in Ohio, where he's rumored to have his primary residence.

Oh jeeze.

In other State GOP shenanigans news...

http://crosscut.com/2014/07/16/elections/121037/pam-roach-and-challenger-sharing-party-and-distast/

Also, who else has gotten their ballot and sent it in?

[KingSweden]

lol

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20140724/NEWS01/140729487/State-Rep.-Hope-to-resign-over-out-of-state-voter-registration

Rep. Mike Hope (R-Snohomish) is resigning because he registered to vote (probably accidentally) in Ohio, where he's rumored to have his primary residence.

Oh jeeze.

In other State GOP shenanigans news...

http://crosscut.com/2014/07/16/elections/121037/pam-roach-and-challenger-sharing-party-and-distast/

Also, who else has gotten their ballot and sent it in?

I sent it in day one (Friday).  When a Metropolitan Parks District formation is the most interesting thing on the ballot, you know it's a dull year.

Oooooooooooooh exciting. You must be in Seattle proper then. We've at least got Bumgarner vs. Cowan over here, but nothing much else.

[KingSweden]

Found this gem on RRH:

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/politicsnorthwest/2014/07/29/gop-democratic-senate-candidate-too-republican/

[KingSweden]

Good writeup on Crosscut on the state of the Senate races:

http://crosscut.com/2014/08/01/elections/121275/senate-primary-preview-john-stang/

[KingSweden]

Not sure if this is the right forum/thread, but here goes:

Since almost all statewide offices are "D" here in WA, do you think WA would sooner be likely to have a GOP governor or U.S. Senator?

Governor, in all likelihood, even though ironically WA had a GOP Senator more recently than they did a Governor (Slade Gorton lost in 2000, as opposed to John Spellman who lost in 1984). Rossi was 130 votes away from winning in 2004, he probably would have won in 2008 but for the financial crash and Obama coattails, and McKenna was favored for 2012 at one point and was the best Republican candidate in a generation facing a "meh" Dem, though he made some serious missteps (Obamacare lawsuit and Tea Party rallies don't go over well in WA, believe it or not). A bad year for Democrats atop the ticket could swing the Gov Mansion in Olympia to the GOP.

The Senate, meanwhile, has two powerful and popular incumbents in Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell. Murray survived two good GOP years in 2004 and 2010 against solid candidates (Nethercutt and Rossi) while Cantwell unseated a two-term incumbent in 2000 and hasn't looked back since. Both Senators will likely hold their seats for as long as they wish.

[KingSweden]

26-23 or 25-24 in favor of GOP is likely. I think the 30th is not a totally lost cause, but it doesn't look good and the 48th is probably the only pickup as of now. Still, the suburbs could break Dem I guess. Whatever chance the D's probably had in the 6th is likely gone with I-594 on the ballot.

[KingSweden]

This could get interesting:

http://crosscut.com/2014/09/03/education/121749/supreme-court-pushes-legislature-mcleary-johnstang/

[KingSweden]

Nothing too surprising in the Washington Poll, although Inslee's favorables are higher than I would have guessed (54-29). 

Interesting to note presidential candidate ratings as well:
Clinton: 55-38
Cristie: 33-40
Rubio: 27-27
Biden: 43-43
Cruz: 25-33
Ryan: 29-34

If Inslee can maintain those favorables over the next legislative session, he should be fine. I don't see the GOP running a candidate nearly as strong as McKenna in '16.

Looks like Hilldawg is #dominating in Washington!

[KingSweden]

Does it look like the R + renegade D coalition will hold in the state Senate?

It went from 24+2 to 23,  to 25+1 to 23. So the coalition is still 26-23 but official members of the Republican Party now hold a majority either way.

And to make it extra interesting, Rodney Tom retiring means Mark Schoesler becomes Majority Leader. Him and his district are both MUCH more conservative than Tom.

[KingSweden]

The new cycle begins

Dave Reichert is believed to be gearing up for a campaign against Inslee

Reichert will/would be a disaster. Anyone who almost lost to DARCY BURNER would get eaten alive in a statewide contest. McKenna at least won statewide twice with Dems winning by big margins at the top of the ticket and didn't have votes on record for the Ryan budget and other House GOP nonsense.

[KingSweden]

Looking ahead to 2015/2016 (mostly to have some discussion in this thread until some real news comes out):

In 2015, the big ticket item is the city council race in Seattle, contested for the first time in districts as opposed to at-large. There'll be 7 district-elected councilmembers and 2 at-large. The big action here will be between the establishment D's and the Socialists in the Kshama Sawant camp. Sawant seems to be popular in a polarized sort of way, and her strongest possible challenger took a post at the ACLU. It'll be interesting to see which current councilmembers survive/continue on into the next council. Odds are, we'll see a City Council even further left of the current one come January 2016.

There'll be elections in Bellevue and Spokane, too. In 2011, the Bellevue city council elections essentially boiled down to pro or anti-East Link, with Kemper Freeman trying (and failing) to oust the pro-LRT candidates. With that mostly a settled issue at that point, and with liberals knocking off a conservative councilmember and coming close to taking out a second in 2013, look for the more left-leaning members of the council to be playing defense once again, but with a less salient issue defining the elections.

Over here in Spokane, we also are electing the Mayor in addition to several city council slots. Since early last year, the City Council has had a liberal majority, and after the resignation of a conservative council member this summer, the City Council has a veto-proof majority, the importance of which was evidenced when Mayor David Condon vetoed an anti-sprawl ordinance passed by the council this last winter. The Condon reelection race is the big ticket here - no Spokane mayor has won reelection since the city switched to a strong mayor system. Condon, a former chief of staff to Congresswoman Cathy McMorris-Rodgers, is opposed both on the right and the left. Many conservative Republicans regard him as a cronyist, spendthrift RINO who has stocked City Hall with his buddies and who has never worked in a job outside of government, and most Democrats regard him as a cronyist hack bought-and-paid for by Spokane's VERY conservative construction lobby. The strongest candidate, Council President Ben Stuckart, has ruled out a run in order to run for reelection. It is not clear who will challenge Condon from the left, and the disciplined GOP operation in Spokane County is likely to run-interference on any challenge from the right.

The other potential big race in 2015 is in the 30th LD, where incumbent Position 2 Rep. Roger Freeman passed away a few days before the election (RIP) but was reelected posthumously. 30th LD Democrats will nominate his successor to be approved by the King and Pierce County Councils. With the State House control on the razor's edge, the special election this fall to fill the seat could be a big target for both sides.

[KingSweden]

The Stranger has gotten it's hands on an email from Ex-SoS Sam Reed apparently meant for fellow "mainstream Republicans" in which Reed states that he believes State Sen. Andy Hill will run against Jay Inslee in 2016.


For those unaware, Hill is a moderate Republican who currently holds a Redmond/Bellevue-based seat that went 58% for Obama in 2012. I'd essentially describe him as "Rob McKenna with a voting record"

Unlike Rob McKenna, he has not won two statewide campaigns. But also unlike Rob McKenna, there is probably no video of him cheerfully telling a Tea Party rally how awesome they are, and he can't run on suing over Obamacare. So there's that.

[KingSweden]

Why not Steve Litzow? He seems to me at least as good as Hill.

Might just be a matter of Litzow not wanting it, or at least not as much as Hill.

Litzow would make a great Governor, at least among Republicans. Part of it may be that he'd have to give up his Senate seat to run (if I remember correctly, he's in the cycle elected same years as Gov and Pres)

[KingSweden]

Washington dems, would Inslee be at all vulnerable? It seems Washington Republicans view him as vulnerable if they're pursuing Hill as hard as they are.

Probably not. Dem Governors always seem more vulnerable than they actually are.