Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Heisenberg]

Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?

First, federal races are different from governor races. Also, Republicans did target Murray in 2010, but came short. Remember how Cantwell only barely won in 2000, then had a strong 2006 wave to help boost her margin. In 2012 she significantly underperformed McKenna, who barely lost even as Obama won big. If Clinton wins the election, and is unpopular, a Cantwell vs McKenna race (if they can get him to run) is a toss up, I think.

[Heisenberg]

Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?

First, federal races are different from governor races. Also, Republicans did target Murray in 2010, but came short. Remember how Cantwell only barely won in 2000, then had a strong 2006 wave to help boost her margin. In 2012 she significantly underperformed McKenna, who barely lost even as Obama won big. If Clinton wins the election, and is unpopular, a Cantwell vs McKenna race (if they can get him to run) is a toss up, I think.

lol no

In a D wave year, McKenna gets destroyed.
In a neutral year, he still loses, but only by single digits.
If 2018 is a 2010/2014-type wave, I think he has at least a 45% chance of winning, and at the very least, he will force Democrats to work hard to defend the seat. Baumgartner got less than 40% of the vote in 2012, and Romney barely got a little over 41%. Rob McKenna, on the other hand, got about 48.5% of the vote, and the national environment was against him. That is quite a lot of crossover appeal.

[Heisenberg]

Cathy getting tapped for Interior will create some interesting jockeying in Spokane. I picked the wrong time to move back to seattle apparently

Who do you think will run for the seat? Michael Baumgartner is a State Senator from Spokane and he ran for US Senate four years ago and is pretty young. He seems like someone with ambition, but is he a little too far right? He got crushed in the western part of the state, but did well in WA-05, so he'd probably have the name rec.