Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I think McKenna is going to win.  Most of the pundits in Washington State think he has a better chance, and he will probably make some inroads with moderates (Inslee will still win them, but McKenna will do better than most Republicans.)  Granted, I don't live in Washington State, but I still think that McKenna will win.  The most recent poll I saw had Inslee leading by three points, but it was within the margin of error and was a poll of registered rather than likely voters.  Once those two things are factored in, it seems at least somewhat likely to me that McKenna is leading.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

McKenna might win... But not if he loses "moderates."

He'll definitely lose moderates, since they're a safely Democratic voting bloc.  But if he can get 40% or more of the moderate vote, which there is a good chance of, he will probably win.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

You guys just won't admit that the pundits all agree that McKenna has a better chance.  And "Democrat moderates"?  The overwhelming majority of moderates who identify with a party are Democrats.  McKenna has been running a campaign based on economic issues, as I understand, and that means he can still make significant inroads.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

You guys just won't admit that the pundits all agree that McKenna has a better chance.   And "Democrat moderates"?  The overwhelming majority of moderates who identify with a party are Democrats.  McKenna has been running a campaign based on economic issues, as I understand, and that means he can still make significant inroads.

......

Link?

But a majority of recent polls show that Inslee has the better chance.

Yeah, but they're close and don't necessarily reflect a better chance for the Democrats.  Most polls still have it within the margin of error.  And McKenna got 34% in King County?  That was just in the primary, though, right?  This race is probably a toss-up.  I saw an analysis from a guy in Washington state who made a comment about how nobody he knew thought Inslee had a better chance of winning.  Admittedly, though, I would love to see the Republicans recover from a 28-year drought of no governors there.  Don't make it 32 years, you guys!  McKenna all the way!

[Oldiesfreak1854]

^

I mean, I'm sure people who believe that exist, but on what basis?  A few months ago, most of us would have agreed -- Inslee seemed stuck in a rut of 3-7 points behind.  But the race has clearly shifted by every indicator toward Inslee.  Unless these pundits and friends-of-pundits have an argument that goes beyond gut feeling, I'm not sure why I'd pay much attention to it.  Yes, McKenna's poor performance was only the primary, but it's not like there's reason to believe the primary electorate would be unusually hostile to him.  (Although, to be fair, McKenna did do better in the 2008 General than the 2008 Primary by several points...but I think that was more because he ran the superior campaign)

Admittedly, I don't live in Washington state, but if McKenna is a moderate, then there is reason with the rise of the Tea Party movement to think that the primary electorate might have been hostile to him.  I have an argument for McKenna winning.  Even though he did poorly in King County, the race is still within or just outside of the margin of error.  If it's still that close despite McKenna only getting 34% in King County, then that seems pretty encouraging for the GOP.   And I've heard that McKenna performs well in the debates.  If that continues, he may convince enough undecided to support him, and that could make the difference.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Are there any more debates left in the governor's race?  I'm beginning to lose hope.  I sure hope you guys don't make it 32 years of Democrat governors!

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Are there any more debates left in the governor's race?  I'm beginning to lose hope.  I sure hope you guys don't make it 32 years of Democrat governors!

There's one tonight, but I don't think they'll have much of an impact. I'm hoping McKenna can pull it off, but its definitely looking better for Inslee.

I think it's ridiculous that they would schedule it the same night as the VP debate.  I still think McKenna can do it, though.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Elway had McKenna leading by 2, and if he wins and it goes to a recount, the Dems will steal it again like they did with Gregoire vs. Rossi in 2004.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor.

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019648697_govrace10m.html

Ugh.  He should have won that race.  Thank you, Tea Partiers, for taking the GOP out of the frying pan and into the fire.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor.

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019648697_govrace10m.html

Ugh.  He should have won that race.  Thank you, Tea Partiers, for taking the GOP out of the frying pan and into the fire.

They made the GOP look like right-wing extremists (even more than they already appear) and hurt his chances at making inroads in King County.

How are the Tea Party specifically to blame for McKenna losing?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

You probably guessed I would say this from my username, but you guys out in Washington state must have nothing better to do than to sit around the house, get high, and watch the tube.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

You probably guessed I would say this from my username, but you guys out in Washington state must have nothing better to do than to sit around the house, get high, and watch the tube.

Not every Washington poster voted to legalize marijuana.

Yeah, but a majority of you did.  I would love your state if it weren't for your backwards social policies.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

You probably guessed I would say this from my username, but you guys out in Washington state must have nothing better to do than to sit around the house, get high, and watch the tube.

Not every Washington poster voted to legalize marijuana.

Yeah, but a majority of you did.  I would love your state if it weren't for your backwards social policies.

Instead of condescending to us and assuming our vote was based on personally enjoying marijuana, how about you present an argument for why it's a bad policy?  I've already presented one (albeit in little detail) for why I voted yes.  Or is logically defending your position more "backward" than just moralizing?

Marijuana has been proven to be a gateway to using other drugs.  I had a cousin who died from a heroin addiction, so I know just how destructive drug abuse can be.  And as for gay marriage, I support equal rights for homosexual couples, but don't redefine marraige to do that.  Call it a "civil union" and give them the rights, but don't be changing a religious definition.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Marijuana has been proven to be a gateway to using other drugs. 

No, that has not been proven.  Perhaps, there's a statistical correlation but correlation does not equal causation.  No study has come close to showing that marijuana use causes hard drug use. 

And as for gay marriage, I support equal rights for homosexual couples, but don't redefine marraige to do that.  Call it a "civil union" and give them the rights, but don't be changing a religious definition.

How does changing the law change the religious definition?  We have a separation of church and state and ultimately, nobody can force you to support gay marriage.  And really, if it's the same in everything but name, doesn't that imply gay people's relationships are lesser compared to "real" marriages. 

I might get to pot later, but by sanctioning "gay marriage" you are violating the religious beliefs of those who do not recognize that as a marriage.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Churches are not forced to perform or recognize marriages they do not wish to under the Washington law.  But they don't get to dictate to the rest of us what goes on outside of their chapel doors.

Putting same-sex couples in a separate class of civil unions is a version of the "separate but equal" argument in Plessy v. Ferguson.  It was later correctly declared unconstitutional.

The only thing that would be separate is the term used to describe it.  For me, it's a languge issues, not a civil rights issue.  And besides, all laws "discriminate" against somebody.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I am sooo glad I don't live in Washington state, because I don't know how I could stand living in what is probably the most liberal state in the country (in terms of policies.)

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I am sooo glad I don't live in Washington state, because I don't know how I could stand living in what is probably the most liberal state in the country (in terms of policies.)

Despite the natural beauty, culture, and artistic and economic activity Washington produces, it have gay marriage and marijuana so it is a terrible place to live. [/OldiesFreak]

It also has assisted suicide and blanket primaries, and it hasn't elected a GOP governor since 1980.  I admire the other things you mentioned, but it would be an absolute nightmare for me politically.