Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Alcon]

State polls always lag behind national ones. I wouldn't expect the ones released today to show any tightening much at all.

Even polls conducted on the same day?  Totally!  Let me remind everyone:

Pollster: Hello, I'm calling to ask for your Presidential preference.

Voter: Wait, is this a state or national poll?

Pollster: State.

Voter: In that case, the man I supported three days ago, Barack Obama!

It's the "bandwagon" effect of the polls though. What I mean is that if people see that McCain is now closer in the national poll, they are more likely to poll for him. No one wants to poll for a loser.

As Elcorazon says, that has nothing to do with two polls conducted on the same day showing different results like that.  The bandwagon effect, or anti-bandwagon effect, would take a few days to show up.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

so, it's a chicken or eggshell thingy?

[Alcon]

so, it's a chicken or eggshell thingy?

Don't know what that means, but a poll conducted the same day as another and released days later cannot affect the other.  Unless their samples overlap, and even that could only affect things if: a) the poll pushed in some way, b) there was massive over-lap.  In other words, not happening.

[Lief 🗽]

So, I think Nate Silver reads this forum.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/myth-of-lag.html

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

so, it's a chicken or eggshell thingy?

Don't know what that means...

nor do I understand how state polling can differ so much from national polling.

[Alcon]

so, it's a chicken or eggshell thingy?

Don't know what that means...

nor do I understand how state polling can differ so much from national polling.

Neither do I.  However, the average day will have maybe ten times as many state polling interviews as national polling ones -- I go where the numbers are.

It's a mystery, though.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

so, it's a chicken or eggshell thingy?

Don't know what that means...

nor do I understand how state polling can differ so much from national polling.

Neither do I.  However, the average day will have maybe ten times as many state polling interviews as national polling ones -- I go where the numbers are.

It's a mystery, though.

so, based on state polling, Obama is up 8-10 points nationally?  because that's what the state polls look like to me

[Alcon]

so, it's a chicken or eggshell thingy?

Don't know what that means...

nor do I understand how state polling can differ so much from national polling.

Neither do I.  However, the average day will have maybe ten times as many state polling interviews as national polling ones -- I go where the numbers are.

It's a mystery, though.

so, based on state polling, Obama is up 8-10 points nationally?  because that's what the state polls look like to me

I'm seeing something closer to 6, all things considered, maybe 5.5.

[Boris]

so, based on state polling, Obama is up 8-10 points nationally?  because that's what the state polls look like to me

more like 4-5 points. If he were up by 8-10, PA and MI would be below/at the (D) national average, respectively. And states such as FL and NV would be well below the (D) national average. NM looks a little screwy though.  

[Democratic Hawk]

 
From www.fivethirtyeight.com

The Myth of the 'Lag'

One of the most bizarre but oft-repeated myths about polling is the notion that state polls 'lag' behind national polls, and particularly lag behind national trackers. This is largely a relic of a bygone era in which newspapers might commission a poll in their state, and then sit on it for several days until their Sunday editions or some other ebb in the news cycle. Thus, you might be seeing state polls that were in the field a week or so ago, whereas the national trackers were more up-to-date.

This largely is not true today, however. Rasmussen and SurveyUSA, perhaps the two most prolific public pollsters, generally release their data no later than 24 hours after it has left the field; likewise with other pollsters like InsiderAdvantage and Public Policy Polling. A couple of other pollsters like Quinnipiac and Mason-Dixon will occasionally sit on a poll for 24-48 hours, but generally not more than that. Every now and then, you'll have some small college or some fledgling marketing firm release a poll that is a couple of weeks old, but this is unusual, and it's easy to notate the exceptions. Most of the big, business-savvy pollsters recognize the importance of timeliness in this era of 24/7 news cycles.

Conversely, some of the national tracking polls are actually not all that fresh. IBD/TIPP has a 5-day polling window. Battleground also has a 5-day polling window, and they don't poll weekends, meaning that they're usually including some data that is a full week old.

Certainly, there is some mystery as to why the state polls and the national trackers seem to have diverged somewhat of late, with John McCain picking up perhaps 2 points in the tracking polls versus last week's averages, whereas the state polls haven't really budged one iota. The 'lag' effect, however, is not a valid explanation.

[Alcon]

I was about to bump my old complaint thread about the idea of same-day lag, and challenge any opposition to a fistfight, but I thought better of it.

Still, thanks Dave.  Someone had to do it.  Even if everything that article says is pretty obvious, it does help with historical context.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I was about to bump my old complaint thread about the idea of same-day lag, and challenge any opposition to a fistfight, but I thought better of it.

Still, thanks Dave.  Someone had to do it.  Even if everything that article says is pretty obvious, it does help with historical context.

but the article didn't give a reason for the 3 majors (IBD, Ras, Gallup) showing it a 3 point race but the state polling showing a much bigger spread....in other words, just pointing out that something doesn't make sense doesn't explain the nonsense.

[Alcon]

I was about to bump my old complaint thread about the idea of same-day lag, and challenge any opposition to a fistfight, but I thought better of it.

Still, thanks Dave.  Someone had to do it.  Even if everything that article says is pretty obvious, it does help with historical context.

but the article didn't give a reason for the 3 majors (IBD, Ras, Gallup) showing it a 3 point race but the state polling showing a much bigger spread....in other words, just pointing out that something doesn't make sense doesn't explain the nonsense.

It's a good question, but not one that I have much of an answer for. I can only point out what I know to be an impossible time-warp, and then concede that I don't know the answer to the other thing. 

[Reaganfan]

I think there is a lag...we saw it back when Obama's lead collapsed nationally but he was still leading in state polls. By the time McCain's national numbers began to fall around Sept. 11th or so...McCain's state numbers peaked at their highest.

This race has been tightening, and the state polls should respond by Monday/Tuesday.

[afleitch]

Ras apparently show Obama ahead by 5 today

I think there is a lag...we saw it back when Obama's lead collapsed nationally but he was still leading in state polls. By the time McCain's national numbers began to fall around Sept. 11th or so...McCain's state numbers peaked at their highest.

This race has been tightening, and the state polls should respond by Monday/Tuesday.

Possibly (though 538.com showed that the idea of a 'lag' doesn't really hold true - make of that what you will). However if there is a movement back towards Obama (as Gallup showed yesterday and Ras today) then by the same reasoning, this movement won't be picked up until after election day, which being impossible means they would show up when the results come in.

[Tender Branson]

Thursday - October 30:

Obama 51 (+1)
McCain 46 (-1)

Within their own party, both candidates lead by identical 86% to 12% margins while Obama has a six-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters nationwide, McCain by 54%.

Additional state polling will be released today including the Senate races in Kentucky and North Carolina. Presidential polls will be released for Indiana, Montana and other states.

[TheresNoMoney]

Rasmussen and R2000/Kos both have Obama up by 5% today. First time I think they've ever showed the same lead.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen and R2000/Kos both have Obama up by 5% today. First time I think they've ever showed the same lead.

With the exception that Rasmussen's internals make sense.

According to DailyKos, Obama has 60+ favorable ratings and McCain has net unfavorable ratings.

[pepper11]

Ras's new weighting is almost +8 Democrat this week. Not saying it is wrong, but it is the closest its ever been to Kos.

[Ronnie]

Boo

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hmmm yes....

[Sam Spade]

I have no internals today which tell me the breakdown of this one-day sample, but if my previous calculations are right, this sample would roughly fall along the lines of Obama +3.  Previously, I had calculated yesterday at also Obama +3.  The day before that was Obama +7.5

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 51%
McCain 46%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.88	(50.24	50.89	50.58	52.46
McCain	46.21	(47.07	46.01	45.96	44.00)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

	Thursday		Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday		Sunday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Certain	46.97	42.03	45.53	42.76	46.36	41.60	46.30	41.04	48.34	39.16
Likely	2.60	2.68	3.65	2.29	3.68	2.28	3.32	2.56	3.27	2.81
Lean	1.31	1.50	1.05	2.03	0.86	2.14	0.96	2.36	0.95	2.04

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Thursday		Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday		Sunday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	86.29	12.20	85.42	12.92	87.70	10.65	88.10	10.15	89.64	8.44
Republican	11.77	86.44	10.64	87.45	10.33	87.30	10.85	86.77	12.23	85.69
Independent	49.83	44.06	50.38	44.59	49.90	44.20	46.48	46.58	48.59	44.46

[Eraserhead]

Thursday - October 30:

Obama 51 (+1)
McCain 46 (-1)

Within their own party, both candidates lead by identical 86% to 12% margins while Obama has a six-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters nationwide, McCain by 54%.

Additional state polling will be released today including the Senate races in Kentucky and North Carolina. Presidential polls will be released for Indiana, Montana and other states.

That's a bit of a relief.

[JohnCA246]

blood pressure went down a little

[Rowan]

I don't think RAS is using the weights that he claims to be using...