Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Wiz in Wis]

July 8, 2008:

Obama - 49% (nc)
McCain - 43% (-1)

Obama - 57% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain - 53% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)

In other news:

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has done a far more effective job than Republican John McCain in recent weeks moving himself to the middle in the minds of voters, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveys.

During the Primary campaign season, Obama was viewed as politically liberal by an ever-increasing number of voters that grew to 67% by early June. However, since clinching the nomination, he has reversed that trend and is now seen as liberal by only 56%.

Twenty-two percent (22%) characterize the Democrat as Very Liberal, down from 36% early last month.

McCain similarly has been seen as politically conservative by more and more voters, also hitting 67% a month ago, but he is still viewed that way by 66%. While19% saw him as Very Conservative in early June, that figure now has risen to 28%.

The Democratic candidate is viewed as a political moderate by 27%, up from 22% three weeks earlier, while McCain is seen as a moderate by 23%, down from 26% in the survey at the beginning of June.

The black senator who hates whitey is more moderate than captain Maverick!  Thats unpossible!!!

[Tender Branson]

July 9, 2008:

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+1)

Obama - 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (-2, +2)
McCain - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (+1, nc)

Today, at noon Eastern, Rasmussen Reports will release new data on the Presidential Race in Missouri. At 3:00 Eastern, data will be released for the Missouri Governor’s race and the New Jersey Senate race. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released for the Presidential race in New Jersey.

[Eraserhead]

Well the NJ poll isn't going to be too interesting but I'm looking foward to that MO poll.

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, July 10, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Favorability

McCain: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama: 54% favorable; 45% unfavorable (-1, +2)

Rasmussen Reports will release new Presidential polling data today from Illinois at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, from North Dakota at noon Eastern, and from Wisconsin at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Polling on the North Dakota Governor’s race and the Illinois Senate race will be released at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.

[Tender Branson]

July 11, 2008:

Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 45% (nc)

McCain - 54% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, -1)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, -1)

Rasmussen Reports will release new Presidential polling data today from Washington at noon Eastern today. At 3:00 p.m., we’ll provide our latest update on the Washington Governor’s race.

[J. J.]

McCain might be doing better midweek and Obama on the weekends.  We shouldn't be getting too exicted yet.

[Wiz in Wis]

McCain might be doing better midweek and Obama on the weekends.  We shouldn't be getting too exicted yet.

Gallup might tell us something too. both have tightened, but the causes could be anything.

[Tender Branson]

McCain might be doing better midweek and Obama on the weekends.  We shouldn't be getting too exicted yet.

What I find more disturbing is the fact that they polled Washington once again, instead of - let's say - Indiana ...

[Umengus]

it's summer.

[Democratic Hawk]

Now which would fit me?

Fiscally moderate / Socially moderate (20%): Obama 59%; McCain 30%

or

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Dave

[Wiz in Wis]

McCain might be doing better midweek and Obama on the weekends.  We shouldn't be getting too exicted yet.

Gallup might tell us something too. both have tightened, but the causes could be anything.

Gallup says Obama +6... School's out for summer!

[J. J.]

McCain might be doing better midweek and Obama on the weekends.  We shouldn't be getting too exicted yet.

Gallup might tell us something too. both have tightened, but the causes could be anything.

Gallup says Obama +6... School's out for summer!

My guess is a 4-6 point national lead for Obama.

[Tender Branson]

Saturday - July 12, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 46% (+1)

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+2, -2)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Tender Branson]

Saturday - July 12, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 46% (+1)

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+2, -2)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Too bad, Gallup will show him ahead by 9 today ...

[J. J.]

Saturday - July 12, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 46% (+1)

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+2, -2)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Too bad, Gallup will show him ahead by 9 today ...

My guess is that it won't be; I would be too surprised to see the Gallup gap close.

[Verily]

Saturday - July 12, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 46% (+1)

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+2, -2)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Too bad, Gallup will show him ahead by 9 today ...

My guess is that it won't be; I would be too surprised to see the Gallup gap close.

After a three-point jump in Obama's lead yesterday, there's no way Obama's lead declines more than a point today (given the way tracking polls work), which still doesn't tell us anything.

[Sam Spade]

Just FYI - if there's any movement in these polls going on at present (because there's nothing in the news that should be affecting the numbers), it is probably more about the growth or decline in the enthusiasm of certain groups.

[J. J.]

Saturday - July 12, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 46% (+1)

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+2, -2)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Too bad, Gallup will show him ahead by 9 today ...

My guess is that it won't be; I would be too surprised to see the Gallup gap close.

After a three-point jump in Obama's lead yesterday, there's no way Obama's lead declines more than a point today (given the way tracking polls work), which still doesn't tell us anything.

My guess was correct; Gallup shows it a 4 points.  It might be a weekend thing, however.

[Umengus]

Just FYI - if there's any movement in these polls going on at present (because there's nothing in the news that should be affecting the numbers), it is probably more about the growth or decline in the enthusiasm of certain groups.

the obama "move to the center" can alterate enthousiasm amongst his hard-core supporters ?

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday, July 13, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Just 15% of voters say the nation is heading in the right direction while 79% say it has gotten off on the wrong track. McCain is supported by 85% of those who say the country is heading in the right direction. Among the much larger number who say the country has gotten off on the wrong track, Obama leads 54% to 38%.

Forty-one percent (41%) of voters say the economy is the top voting issue of Election 2008 and these voters prefer Obama by a sixteen point margin. Twenty-three percent (23%) name national security issues as their highest priority. They favor McCain by a two-to-one margin. Domestic issues such as Social Security and Health Care are most important for 12%, fiscal issues for 8%, and cultural issues for 5%. Obama leads by a wide margin among those who call cultural - shouldn't that read domestic - issues most important while McCain leads by similarly wide margins among those who consider fiscal or cultural issues tops.

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable; 40% unfavorable (+1, -1)
Obama: 54% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Obama taking a hit on FISA perhaps?

[agcatter]

My guess ia that he is taking a definite hit among his base for his "move to the center", bogus as it is.

[Rowan]

It will take a few days to determine whether this means much or whether this is just noise.

[agcatter]

Statistical noise or not, it is mid July.

[J. J.]

Probably no more than 4 points, at most, but we'll have a better idea by midweek.  Obama has tended to do better over weekends, so this a bit troubling for him.

Edit:  Let me clarify.  He's done a bit better in Gallup on weekends.

[Tender Branson]

Monday - July 14, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 46% (nc)

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (-1, +1)
Obama - 54% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, -1)

New state polling data will be released each afternoon this week.