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Author Topic: Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]  (Read 259920 times)
RJ
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« Reply #1750 on: November 01, 2008, 03:50:19 pm »
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That's in line with the rest of the polls.

I can very easily believe that PA is trending more Republican in this election.

If PA goes for Obama by a greater percentage than the national PV, will you still be singing the same tune??? I can't remember the last time that happened.
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Nym90
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« Reply #1751 on: November 01, 2008, 05:07:21 pm »
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That's in line with the rest of the polls.

I can very easily believe that PA is trending more Republican in this election.

If PA goes for Obama by a greater percentage than the national PV, will you still be singing the same tune??? I can't remember the last time that happened.

The last time that Pennsylvania was more Republican than the nation as a whole was 1948 (going on the basis of margin of victory in PA vs. margin of victory nationally).

Which is actually the longest streak of any state in the nation, believe it or not.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #1752 on: November 01, 2008, 05:49:05 pm »
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That's in line with the rest of the polls.

I can very easily believe that PA is trending more Republican in this election.

If PA goes for Obama by a greater percentage than the national PV, will you still be singing the same tune??? I can't remember the last time that happened.

The last time that Pennsylvania was more Republican than the nation as a whole was 1948 (going on the basis of margin of victory in PA vs. margin of victory nationally).

Which is actually the longest streak of any state in the nation, believe it or not.

I would love to re-live a 1948. I would have been wild about Harry.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1753 on: November 01, 2008, 10:52:04 pm »
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That's in line with the rest of the polls.

I can very easily believe that PA is trending more Republican in this election.

If PA goes for Obama by a greater percentage than the national PV, will you still be singing the same tune??? I can't remember the last time that happened.

No, but I'm expecting it to be closer.

Some of it is race.
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J. J.

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Nym90
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« Reply #1754 on: November 01, 2008, 11:56:14 pm »
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That's in line with the rest of the polls.

I can very easily believe that PA is trending more Republican in this election.

If PA goes for Obama by a greater percentage than the national PV, will you still be singing the same tune??? I can't remember the last time that happened.

The last time that Pennsylvania was more Republican than the nation as a whole was 1948 (going on the basis of margin of victory in PA vs. margin of victory nationally).

Which is actually the longest streak of any state in the nation, believe it or not.

I would love to re-live a 1948. I would have been wild about Harry.

Glad to see we agree on the guy who vetoed that abomination of a bill co-sponsored by one of your state's most famous senators ever.
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Sarnstrom
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« Reply #1755 on: November 02, 2008, 09:32:14 am »
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Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)
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« Reply #1756 on: November 02, 2008, 09:47:36 am »
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Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Thank God.
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« Reply #1757 on: November 02, 2008, 09:54:17 am »
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Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Thank God.
Well said. *exhales*
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« Reply #1758 on: November 02, 2008, 09:58:48 am »
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Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1759 on: November 02, 2008, 10:55:09 am »
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Sorry I missed doing this yesterday.

I have no internals today which tell me the breakdown of this one-day sample, but the Halloween sample was a strong one for Obama.  If the numbers were the same as the one that fell off that I guessed at before (October 30 fell off today), then Obama +3.

The 46.50% for McCain today rounds down because it is 46.49986...

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 51%
McCain 46%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

samp goes tomsamp went today
Obama51.42(51.25
50.86
50.88
50.24)
McCain46.50(46.47
46.89
46.21
47.07)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

SundaySaturdayFridayThursdayWednesday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Certain47.2442.7847.4942.6147.2942.7646.9742.0345.5342.76
Likely2.772.402.362.492.262.722.602.683.652.29
Lean1.411.321.401.171.301.401.311.501.052.03

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

SundaySaturdayFridayThursdayWednesday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Democratic87.6710.8589.209.3188.0110.9886.2912.2085.4212.92
Republican11.2288.1511.4188.0712.3986.8411.7786.4410.6487.45
Independent48.9846.6845.3549.2844.4249.9249.8344.0650.3844.59
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1760 on: November 02, 2008, 11:24:41 am »
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Rowan - This is probably the reason why Rasmussen's playing around with the weighting, though he should tell us why:

Targets (this week)
Dem 39.9% (-0.1%)
Rep 33.4% (+0.6%)
Ind 26.7% (-0.5%)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_rasmussen_reports_partisan_weighting_targets_39_9_democrat_33_4_republican
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« Reply #1761 on: November 02, 2008, 12:31:48 pm »
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Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...
McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.
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« Reply #1762 on: November 02, 2008, 01:04:19 pm »
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Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...
McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

if you just look at today's sample...it's more like 1.5 per day....

still tough...but I don't really like it.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1763 on: November 02, 2008, 11:12:22 pm »
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Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...
McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

Oh, thanks for the encouragement!
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J. J.
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« Reply #1764 on: November 02, 2008, 11:57:47 pm »
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Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...
McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

if you just look at today's sample...it's more like 1.5 per day....

still tough...but I don't really like it.

Or you have a 4 point Bradley.
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J. J.

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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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« Reply #1765 on: November 03, 2008, 12:26:24 am »
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Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...
McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

if you just look at today's sample...it's more like 1.5 per day....

still tough...but I don't really like it.

Or you have a 4 point Bradley.

The remaining superdelegates will split 3-1 for Clinton, too.
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« Reply #1766 on: November 03, 2008, 12:28:02 am »
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Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...
McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

if you just look at today's sample...it's more like 1.5 per day....

still tough...but I don't really like it.

Or you have a 4 point Bradley.

The remaining superdelegates will split 3-1 for Clinton, too.

And Obama was overpolling in NC and would only win by 4. And there was a good chance Clinton's delegates would stage a convention walkout. And the Florida and Michigan Democrat parties would fight tooth and nail to have their delegates fully seated as voted so Obama would just have to grab as much of the uncommitted as he could.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1767 on: November 03, 2008, 06:59:26 am »
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Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...
McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

if you just look at today's sample...it's more like 1.5 per day....

still tough...but I don't really like it.

Or you have a 4 point Bradley.

The remaining superdelegates will split 3-1 for Clinton, too.

And Obama was overpolling in NC and would only win by 4. And there was a good chance Clinton's delegates would stage a convention walkout. And the Florida and Michigan Democrat parties would fight tooth and nail to have their delegates fully seated as voted so Obama would just have to grab as much of the uncommitted as he could.

Are you saying that NC will go Obama?
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #1768 on: November 03, 2008, 09:19:57 am »
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Rasmussen, Obama leads by 6.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Obama 52% (+1)
McCain 46% (nc)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1769 on: November 03, 2008, 09:24:08 am »
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Smiley
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1770 on: November 03, 2008, 09:25:52 am »
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Rasmussen, Obama leads by 6.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Obama 52% (+1)
McCain 46% (nc)

When the numbers get posted, I'll post.  But based on the one internal, it looks like a fairly strong Obama day.
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Senator-elect Polnut
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« Reply #1771 on: November 03, 2008, 09:27:02 am »
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Very very very nice to see.
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« Reply #1772 on: November 03, 2008, 09:37:58 am »
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Very, very nice. I was dreading a drop in Obama's numbers today.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1773 on: November 03, 2008, 09:43:49 am »
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Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 52%
McCain 46%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

samp goes tomsamp went today
Obama52.09(51.42
51.25
50.86
50.88)
McCain45.59(46.50
46.47
46.89
46.21)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

MondaySundaySaturdayFridayThursday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Certain47.3742.5747.2442.7847.4942.6147.2942.7646.9742.03
Likely3.181.862.772.402.362.492.262.722.602.68
Lean1.541.051.411.321.401.171.301.401.311.50

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

MondaySundaySaturdayFridayThursday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Democratic87.3510.7387.6710.8589.209.3188.0110.9886.2912.20
Republican11.7787.1711.2288.1511.4188.0712.3986.8411.7786.44
Independent50.6644.1148.9846.6845.3549.2844.4249.9249.8344.06
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1774 on: November 03, 2008, 09:53:04 am »
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Coming Soon:
 
10:30 a.m. Eastern: One-Third of Obama Voters Plan To Be Out Tomorrow
Noon Eastern: New Jersey President
6 p.m. Eastern: Florida President
6 p.m. Eastern: North Carolina President
6 p.m. Eastern: Missouri President
6 p.m. Eastern: Virginia President
6 p.m. Eastern: Ohio President
6 p.m. Eastern: Colorado President
6 p.m. Eastern: Fox/Rasmussen Swing State Overview
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