Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Gustaf]

Well this makes ChrisNJ look foolish, which is a surprise to no one.

Rasmussen's state polls were terrible and had a McCain lean. I was right.

They were not terrible and the supposed McCain lean was one of the smallest biases of all pollsters and obviously just random noise.

But how did Florida and West Virginia compare to national average again?

[Rowan]

Saturday, November 8, 2008
Strongly Approve 41%(nc)
Strongly Disapprove 29%(nc)

[NSA is just two letters away from NSDAP]

Yeah, Rasmussen was a major let down, in state polling at least, this election, and had a pretty noticeable Republican lean. Same with Mason-Dixon, except they were generally even worse.

[Ronnie]

Yeah, Rasmussen was a major let down, in state polling at least, this election, and had a pretty noticeable Republican lean. Same with Mason-Dixon, except they were generally even worse.

I disagree:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/final_rasmussen_poll_results_presidential_election

[NSA is just two letters away from NSDAP]

I don't really care that Rasmussen underpolled Obama in Hawaii or Massachusetts or Alabama or something. Those were going to be blow-outs and no one cared. If you look at the swing states, then Rasmussen had a small, but consistent Republican bias of about 2-4 points. Same with Mason-Dixon, who really only did well in Florida (which, to their credit, they got exactly).

[Gustaf]

I don't really care that Rasmussen underpolled Obama in Hawaii or Massachusetts or Alabama or something. Those were going to be blow-outs and no one cared. If you look at the swing states, then Rasmussen had a small, but consistent Republican bias of about 2-4 points. Same with Mason-Dixon, who really only did well in Florida (which, to their credit, they got exactly).

Eh...so your argument is what exactly? Rasmussen on purpose tried to inflate McCain's poll numbers in swing states so that they could look incompetent and then tried to cover it up by inflating Obama's poll numbers in other states so as to make them look even worse?

[NSA is just two letters away from NSDAP]

I don't really care that Rasmussen underpolled Obama in Hawaii or Massachusetts or Alabama or something. Those were going to be blow-outs and no one cared. If you look at the swing states, then Rasmussen had a small, but consistent Republican bias of about 2-4 points. Same with Mason-Dixon, who really only did well in Florida (which, to their credit, they got exactly).

Eh...so your argument is what exactly? Rasmussen on purpose tried to inflate McCain's poll numbers in swing states so that they could look incompetent and then tried to cover it up by inflating Obama's poll numbers in other states so as to make them look even worse?

Er... no? When did I say anything like that? I don't believe that Rasmussen has some secret pro-Republican agenda and that he's fixing his polls. He just didn't do as well this cycle as he has in past cycles, and something about how he took his polls gave them a bit of a Republican lean.

I looked at the final margin in Rass's polls versus the final real margin in 18 swing states (CO, NV, NM, AZ, MT, MN, IA, MO, WI, IN, MI, OH, PA, VA, NC, FL, and NH). In only four of these states was Obama's margin over-polled, AZ, GA, MO, and MN (and in GA and MO, the difference was less than 1, which could have just been a matter of rounding). In all the other states he under-polled Obama, sometimes by small margins of 1-2, but more than half the time by larger margins of 3-8.

[Gustaf]

I don't really care that Rasmussen underpolled Obama in Hawaii or Massachusetts or Alabama or something. Those were going to be blow-outs and no one cared. If you look at the swing states, then Rasmussen had a small, but consistent Republican bias of about 2-4 points. Same with Mason-Dixon, who really only did well in Florida (which, to their credit, they got exactly).

Eh...so your argument is what exactly? Rasmussen on purpose tried to inflate McCain's poll numbers in swing states so that they could look incompetent and then tried to cover it up by inflating Obama's poll numbers in other states so as to make them look even worse?

Er... no? When did I say anything like that? I don't believe that Rasmussen has some secret pro-Republican agenda and that he's fixing his polls. He just didn't do as well this cycle as he has in past cycles, and something about how he took his polls gave them a bit of a Republican lean.

I looked at the final margin in Rass's polls versus the final real margin in 18 swing states (CO, NV, NM, AZ, MT, MN, IA, MO, WI, IN, MI, OH, PA, VA, NC, FL, and NH). In only four of these states was Obama's margin over-polled, AZ, GA, MO, and MN (and in GA and MO, the difference was less than 1, which could have just been a matter of rounding). In all the other states he under-polled Obama, sometimes by small margins of 1-2, but more than half the time by larger margins of 3-8.

Yeah...and I looked at all of the states and I didn't get any Republican bias.

But then I assume that you are arguing that Rasmussen used different methodologies in close states as opposed to non-close states? (and close states here mean states he may have thought were close, and not states that actually ended up close).

[NSA is just two letters away from NSDAP]

States that neither candidate campaigns in are more susceptible to large, random swings, so I don't think looking at those really tells us anything. The swing states, where most people have made up their mind by election day, should be a lot easier to poll, and I think that how a pollster does in those states is much more important.

[Gustaf]

States that neither candidate campaigns in are more susceptible to large, random swings, so I don't think looking at those really tells us anything. The swing states, where most people have made up their mind by election day, should be a lot easier to poll, and I think that how a pollster does in those states is much more important.

I'm not sure I agree. If anything, the opinion in those states should be pretty stable since it isn't being hammered by the campaigning? Do you have any evidence for this claim? It seems to me like you're awfully close to arbitrarily throwing out data that doesn't fit your conclusions.

[Rowan]

Sunday, November 9, 2008
Strongly Approve 42%(+1)
Strongly Disapprove 26%(-3)

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

How is there a "Presidential Approval rating" for Obama when he isn't even President...

[NSA is just two letters away from NSDAP]

States that neither candidate campaigns in are more susceptible to large, random swings, so I don't think looking at those really tells us anything. The swing states, where most people have made up their mind by election day, should be a lot easier to poll, and I think that how a pollster does in those states is much more important.

I'm not sure I agree. If anything, the opinion in those states should be pretty stable since it isn't being hammered by the campaigning? Do you have any evidence for this claim? It seems to me like you're awfully close to arbitrarily throwing out data that doesn't fit your conclusions.

I think that, if anything, being hammered by campaigning would stabilize voting patterns. I think that someone would be more likely to solidify his support for one candidate or the other if he's constantly being shown ads, being called by the campaign, being sent literature, etc. Meanwhile, voters in states like New York and Alabama are much more on their own.

[Tender Branson]

The Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Index for Thursday shows that 41% Strongly Approve of the way Barack Obama is performing his role as President-elect while 19% Strongly Disapprove for a net rating of +22.

That’s Obama’s highest rating yet, up three points from yesterday and up twelve points since the night after the election.

Overall, 61% of voters somewhat or strongly approve of Obama’s performance so far while 35% disapprove.

By way of comparison, 13% of all voters Strongly Approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president. Forty-four percent (44%) Strongly Disapprove. That gives the current President a -31 rating on the Presidential Approval Index.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Stranger in a strange land]

How is there a "Presidential Approval rating" for Obama when he isn't even President...

I can only suppose it means they approve of how he's handling the transition

[Tender Branson]

How is there a "Presidential Approval rating" for Obama when he isn't even President...

I can only suppose it means they approve of how he's handling the transition

I predict that Obama will enjoy about 65-70% approval ratings after being sworn in.

[Gustaf]

How is there a "Presidential Approval rating" for Obama when he isn't even President...

I can only suppose it means they approve of how he's handling the transition

I believe it refers to "President of the Universe", a title that is Obama's for life.

[Tender Branson]

Obama's approval ratings are taking off:

Approve - 64% (41% Strongly Approve) +12 since Election Day
Disapprove - 33% (17% Strongly Disapprove) -11 since Election Day

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

[Sam Spade]

Not terribly surprising, actually.

[Tender Branson]

Not terribly surprising, actually.

I know, Bill Clinton had 80% approval ratings during his transition period in January 1993 and even Bush the Joke had 70% approval ratings.

[Tender Branson]

Even higher today:

65% Approve (+1)
32% Disapprove (-1)

[Sam Spade]

Not terribly surprising, actually.

I know, Bill Clinton had 80% approval ratings during his transition period in January 1993 and even Bush the Joke had 70% approval ratings.

During your transition, the goal is to name people that the populace generally like to cabinet positions, stand there and look good, don't do anything stupid and generally stay out of the way.  Even an idiot can do it.

[Tender Branson]

Higher once more today:

67% Approve (+2)
30% Disapprove (-2)

42% Strongly Approve (+1)
15% Strongly Disapprove (-1)

[Beet]

Clinton bounce!

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Clinton bounce!

Clinton/Gates bounce. I'm sure that keeping Gates on won the hearts of some Rethugs.