Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday - July 27, 2008

Obama: 49% (nc)
McCain: 44% (+1)

Favorability Ratings

Obama: 56% (-1) / 41% (nc)
McCain: 55% (nc) / 43% (+1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, July 28, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (-1, -1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, +1)

Obama earns the vote from 77% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 82% of Republicans. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable; - 42% unfavorable (+1, -1)
Obama: 56% favorable; - 43% unfavorable (nc, +2)

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (-1, -1)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided. McCain leads 50% to 44% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men. Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)
McCain: 54% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (-2, +2)

[True Democrat]

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (-1, -1)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided. McCain leads 50% to 44% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men. Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)
McCain: 54% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (-2, +2)

Interesting.

The last time McCain was making it this close in the Rasmussen tracking poll (pre-Obama world tour), his favorability ratings were really high (like 58, 59% IIRC).  Now, they're lower than Obama, but he's still making it close, meaning that people who don't necessarily like him could start to gravitate towards him because of a dislike for Obama.  Of course, it probably means nothing.

[Tender Branson]

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (-1, -1)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided. McCain leads 50% to 44% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men. Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)
McCain: 54% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (-2, +2)

Interesting.

The last time McCain was making it this close in the Rasmussen tracking poll (pre-Obama world tour), his favorability ratings were really high (like 58, 59% IIRC).  Now, they're lower than Obama, but he's still making it close, meaning that people who don't necessarily like him could start to gravitate towards him because of a dislike for Obama.  Of course, it probably means nothing.

What´s even more interesting: I don´t get how Obama is ahead by only 1% overall, if he´s getting 44% of the white vote, to McCain's 50%. Kerry got 41%, Bush 59%. Obama's getting higher shares among African-Americans and Hispanics. Is Rasmussen's sample 90% White ? Because on Election Day it will be 73-75% ...

[ChrisFromNJ]

What´s even more interesting: I don´t get how Obama is ahead by only 1% overall, if he´s getting 44% of the white vote, to McCain's 50%. Kerry got 41%, Bush 59%. Obama's getting higher shares among African-Americans and Hispanics. Is Rasmussen's sample 90% White ? Because on Election Day it will be 73-75% ...

Scott Rasmussen is cooking up the numbers so he can make his weekly appearance on the Sean Hannity show to flaunt off his numbers to Hannity's base.

[J. J.]

What´s even more interesting: I don´t get how Obama is ahead by only 1% overall, if he´s getting 44% of the white vote, to McCain's 50%. Kerry got 41%, Bush 59%. Obama's getting higher shares among African-Americans and Hispanics. Is Rasmussen's sample 90% White ? Because on Election Day it will be 73-75% ...

Scott Rasmussen is cooking up the numbers so he can make his weekly appearance on the Sean Hannity show to flaunt off his numbers to Hannity's base.

Only in Bizarro World where Kerry won and Mypalfish is Secretary of State.

[Alcon]

What´s even more interesting: I don´t get how Obama is ahead by only 1% overall, if he´s getting 44% of the white vote, to McCain's 50%. Kerry got 41%, Bush 59%. Obama's getting higher shares among African-Americans and Hispanics. Is Rasmussen's sample 90% White ? Because on Election Day it will be 73-75% ...

That's a good point.  If the sample is 25% non-white, Obama would have to be leading by a barely 3:2 margin among non-whites.  Kerry's margin was more like 5:2, even in the ill-adjusted exit poll.

Scott Rasmussen is cooking up the numbers so he can make his weekly appearance on the Sean Hannity show to flaunt off his numbers to Hannity's base.

That, on the other hand, is not a good point!

Only in Bizarro World where Kerry won and Mypalfish is Secretary of State.

And that is not a good joke!

[Tender Branson]

What´s even more interesting: I don´t get how Obama is ahead by only 1% overall, if he´s getting 44% of the white vote, to McCain's 50%. Kerry got 41%, Bush 59%. Obama's getting higher shares among African-Americans and Hispanics. Is Rasmussen's sample 90% White ? Because on Election Day it will be 73-75% ...

That's a good point.  If the sample is 25% non-white, Obama would have to be leading by a barely 3:2 margin among non-whites.  Kerry's margin was more like 5:2, even in the ill-adjusted exit poll.

It´s really freaking me out, after running through his numbers on the calculator:

Let´s assume a very pessimistic sample for Obama:

80% Whites: Obama @ 44% support
9% African Americans: Obama @ 92% support

With these numbers alone, Obama receives a minimum of 43.5%.

9% Hispanics
2% Others

To get 47% overall, he would have to get only 1/3 (!!!) of Hispanics and Asians. Last time I checked, Obama got more than 60% in every poll (Rasmussen and Gallup) ...

[CARLHAYDEN]

What´s even more interesting: I don´t get how Obama is ahead by only 1% overall, if he´s getting 44% of the white vote, to McCain's 50%. Kerry got 41%, Bush 59%. Obama's getting higher shares among African-Americans and Hispanics. Is Rasmussen's sample 90% White ? Because on Election Day it will be 73-75% ...

That's a good point.  If the sample is 25% non-white, Obama would have to be leading by a barely 3:2 margin among non-whites.  Kerry's margin was more like 5:2, even in the ill-adjusted exit poll.

It´s really freaking me out, after running through his numbers on the calculator:

Let´s assume a very pessimistic sample for Obama:

80% Whites: Obama @ 44% support
9% African Americans: Obama @ 92% support

With these numbers alone, Obama receives a minimum of 43.5%.

9% Hispanics
2% Others

To get 47% overall, he would have to get only 1/3 (!!!) of Hispanics and Asians. Last time I checked, Obama got more than 60% in every poll (Rasmussen and Gallup) ...

Let me suggest a slightly different breakdown by race/ethnicity:

Race/ethnicity                    % of Voters                    Percentage for Obama                    % of Voters

White (nonhispanic)               76                                         41                                             31.16

Black (nonhispanic)                12                                         95                                             11.40

Hispanic (all races)                   8                                         67                                               5.36

Asian (nonhispanic)                  2                                         56                                               1.12

All others (nonhispanic)            2                                         56                                               1.12

Total                                     100                                                              50.16

[Alcon]

Let me suggest a slightly more different breakdown by race/ethnicity:

Race/ethnicity                    % of Voters                    Percentage for Obama                    % of Voters

White (nonhispanic)               76                                         41                                             31.16

Black (nonhispanic)                12                                         95                                             11.40

Hispanic (all races)                   8                                         67                                               5.36

Asian (nonhispanic)                  2                                         56                                               1.12

All others (nonhispanic)            2                                         56                                               1.12

Total                                     100                                                              50.16

That's a realistic breakdown, but doesn't help us reconcile the poll at all.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Let me repeat a point I made a few days ago.

Rasmussen is improperly pushing leaners, who really aren't leaners.

So, Obama does NOT have the support of 44 % of whites and McCain does NOT have the support of 50 % of whites.

[Alcon]

So, you called and found out what leaner method they're using?  What is it? 

[Verily]

So, you called and found out what leaner method they're using?  What is it? 

They're actually redistributing all of Barr's support to Obama and McCain in a massive conspiracy to elect a pro-amnesty President.

[Wiz in Wis]

Friday - July 18, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 46% (nc)

There has been much discussion about the potential demographic changes brought about by Obama’s historic candidacy and the fact that he won the nomination by ending Hillary Clinton’s historic candidacy. Rasmussen Reports reviewed data from our July polling and found somewhat surprisingly that Obama’s support looks a lot like John Kerry’s. The only big difference is that Obama is currently doing about five points better against McCain than Kerry did against George W. Bush.

Four years ago, exit polls showed Bush defeating Kerry among white men by a 62% to 37% margin. Today, Obama is doing four points better than that and trails 58% to 37% among white men.

The tale is the same among white women. Bush won that demographic by eleven percentage points, 55% to 44%. Obama is doing five points better and trails by only six, 48% to 42%.

Among non-white females, Obama leads by fifty-four points, up three from Kerry’s margin of fifty-one points. However, Obama lags a bit among non-white males. This year’s presumptive nominee leads by twenty-nine points among that group, down from Kerry’s thirty-seven point margin.

So, Obama's lead is small because Minority Men don't support him by the margin they supported Kerry... this seems wrong

Rasmussen has had a problem in this department for some time now

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday - July 30, 2008

Obama: 48% (+1)
McCain: 46% (nc)

Favorable Ratings

Obama: 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, nc)
McCain: 55% favorable, 42% unfavorable (+1, -2)

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for key Senate races in Nebraska and Mississippi.

At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for the Presidential race in Nebraska and Mississippi.

[Alcon]

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for key Senate races in Nebraska...

Fingers crossed guys!!!

[J. J.]

Wednesday - July 30, 2008

Obama: 48% (+1)
McCain: 46% (nc)

Favorable Ratings

Obama: 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, nc)
McCain: 55% favorable, 42% unfavorable (+1, -2)

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for key Senate races in Nebraska and Mississippi.

At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for the Presidential race in Nebraska and Mississippi.

Probably still within that 0-3 point range, which is a surprise (to me at least).

[Tender Branson]

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for key Senate races in Nebraska...

Fingers crossed guys!!!

It won´t be close. Yesterday they mentioned Birch Bayh in one of their releases ...

[Democratic Hawk]

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for key Senate races in Nebraska...

Fingers crossed guys!!!

It won´t be close. Yesterday they mentioned Birch Bayh in one of their releases ...

Noticed that. Evan is, of course, Birch Evans Bayh III

[Lief 🗽]

Yay Montana!

[Tender Branson]

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released on the Kentucky Senate race and the Montana Governor’s race. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, Presidential polling will be released for Kentucky, Montana, and Texas. [/i]

Kentucky: McCain 55%, Obama 39%

Montana: McCain 49%, Obama 45%

Texas: McCain 53%, Obama 42%

[Aizen]

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released on the Kentucky Senate race and the Montana Governor’s race. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, Presidential polling will be released for Kentucky, Montana, and Texas. [/i]

Kentucky: McCain 55%, Obama 39%

Montana: McCain 49%, Obama 45%

Texas: McCain 53%, Obama 42%

Are those the real numbers or your predictions?

[Tender Branson]

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released on the Kentucky Senate race and the Montana Governor’s race. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, Presidential polling will be released for Kentucky, Montana, and Texas. [/i]

Kentucky: McCain 55%, Obama 39%

Montana: McCain 49%, Obama 45%

Texas: McCain 53%, Obama 42%

Are those the real numbers or your predictions?

Wait until 5PM ...

[J. J.]

1.  Do we have today's numbers?

2.  Is it possible to sticky the tracking polls?