Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

July 31

McCain 43%
   
Obama 45%
   
With Leaners:

McCain 46%

Obama 48%

No change.

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, August 1, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 47%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters say that economic issues are most important in Election 2008 while 21% name national security issues. Twelve percent (12%) say that domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care are the highest priority, 9% name fiscal issues such as taxes and government while 5% focus primarily on cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion.

As with everything in a political election season, there is a partisan divide on priorities. Among Democrats, 53% say the economy is most important, 17% name domestic issues as their primary concern, and 14% say national security. For Republicans, 35% focus first on national security, 31% on the economy, and 14% on fiscal issues. As for those not affiliated with either major party, 51% say the economy is number one and 16% say the top issue is national security.

Obama leads by 19 points among those who say economic issues are most important while McCain leads by 39 among national security voters. Obama also leads among those focused on domestic issues while McCain leads among those whose top priority is fiscal issues or cultural issues.

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable; - 41% unfavorable (+1, -2)
Obama: 55% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)

Would Obama be any more thought of if he took the low road?

At noon Eastern Time today, data will be released on the Presidential race in Alaska. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest numbers on the Texas Senate will be released.

[J. J.]

A very close race, with perhaps a slight long term erosion for Obama.

[Keystone Phil]

Friday, August 1, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 47%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (nc, nc)

This race is over. Where did the McCain campaign go wrong?

[Sam Spade]

Hawk - with leaners it's 47-46, not 47-45.

[Democratic Hawk]

Hawk - with leaners it's 47-46, not 47-45.

Corrected

[Democratic Hawk]

A very close race, with perhaps a slight long term erosion for Obama.

Yep, too close. McCain doesn't deserve a net favorability rating. He's conducted himself appallingly all this week and last. It's nothing short of disgusting that he appears more well thought of for having done so

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

A very close race, with perhaps a slight long term erosion for Obama.

Yep, too close. McCain doesn't deserve a net favorability rating. He's conducted himself appallingly all this week and last. It's disgusting that he appears more well approved of for having done so

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, August 1, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 47%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (nc, nc)

This race is over. Where did the McCain campaign go wrong?

Better for Obama wage a civil and dignified campaign, and lose, than stoop to McCain's level in a vain effort to win

Dave

[Keystone Phil]

Friday, August 1, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 47%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (nc, nc)

This race is over. Where did the McCain campaign go wrong?

Better for Obama wage a civil and dignified campaign, and lose, than stoop to McCain's level in a vain effort to win

Dave

Translated from official DNC speak to something normal - "Ugh, why isn't Obama up by more than two...er...make that one point?"

[Democratic Hawk]

Better for Obama wage a civil and dignified campaign, and lose, than stoop to McCain's level in a vain effort to win

Dave

Translated from official DNC speak to something normal - "Ugh, why isn't Obama up by more than two...er...make that one point?"

The sentiments I express are mine Phil, not those of the DNC

Dave

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'll aask it again? What will happen to the GOP if Obama wins by the landslide proportions he is currently polling at? This has to be bad news for McCain.

[Tender Branson]

Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided. McCain leads 50% to 44% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men. Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans

E-Mail I got from Rasmussen:

"We’re not sure where you saw the reference to McCain leading 50% to 44% among White Voters. But, that would have been a typo. If it’s still on the site, please send me the URL so we can fix it. Today, McCain leads 55% to 37% among White Voters. Thank you for your interest in our work, Scott Rasmussen."

Of course they changed it to a 54-40 White lead for McCain now, because 50-44 would have been ridiculous ...

[J. J.]

Better for Obama wage a civil and dignified campaign, and lose, than stoop to McCain's level in a vain effort to win

Dave

Translated from official DNC speak to something normal - "Ugh, why isn't Obama up by more than two...er...make that one point?"

The sentiments I express are mine Phil, not those of the DNC

Dave

Actually, they could the motto any loosing candidate.

This campaign is far from over, but right now, Obama, who had great press last week, is slipping in the polls.  The more people see him, the less they like him.

[elcorazon]

Better for Obama wage a civil and dignified campaign, and lose, than stoop to McCain's level in a vain effort to win

Dave

Translated from official DNC speak to something normal - "Ugh, why isn't Obama up by more than two...er...make that one point?"

The sentiments I express are mine Phil, not those of the DNC

Dave

Actually, they could the motto any loosing candidate.

This campaign is far from over, but right now, Obama, who had great press last week, is slipping in the polls.  The more people see him, the less they like him.

that's a bit of a stretch now, isn't it?  the race has been up and down with obama up from 1-8 pts or so for a couple of months.  from that you infer that the more they see of obama the less they like him.  I suspect you are seeing what you want to see.

Better possibility is the negative ads have been impactful.

[Democratic Hawk]

This campaign is far from over, but right now, Obama, who had great press last week, is slipping in the polls.  The more people see him, the less they like him

Digusting when you consider the civility and dignity the man exudes even when the going gets tough. There's McCain conducting a negative attack, attack, attack breaking his own promise to run a civil campaign. Something profoundly wrong there. If any one deserves to be reviled it's McCain. I expected better from him considering the smear that was peddled against him in South Carolina, 2000

Anyway I've made perfectly clear my opinion on this matter - and I've no intention of reiterating further

A word of advice for John McCain though. What goes around comes around and if you can't take it you shouldn't dish it out

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

This campaign is far from over, but right now, Obama, who had great press last week, is slipping in the polls.  The more people see him, the less they like him

Digusting when you consider the civility and dignity the man exudes even when the going gets tough. There's McCain conducting a negative personal attack, attack, attack campaign breaking his own promise to run a civil campaign. If any one deserves to be disliked it's McCain. I expected better from him considering the smears that were peddled against him in 2000

A word of advice for John McCain though. What goes around comes around and if he can't take it then he shouldn't dish it out

Anyway I've made perfectly clear my opinion on this matter

Dave

[HardRCafé]

About 10,000 times.

[Joe Republic]

Anyway I've made perfectly clear my opinion on this matter - and I've no intention of reiterating further

If only that were true.

[J. J.]

This campaign is far from over, but right now, Obama, who had great press last week, is slipping in the polls.  The more people see him, the less they like him

Digusting when you consider the civility and dignity the man exudes even when the going gets tough. There's McCain conducting a negative personal attack, attack, attack campaign breaking his own promise to run a civil campaign. If any one deserves to be disliked it's McCain. I expected better from him considering the smears that were peddled against him in 2000

A word of advice for John McCain though. What goes around comes around and if he can't take it then he shouldn't dish it out

Anyway I've made perfectly clear my opinion on this matter

Dave

Oh, McCain has.  This is experience versus Obama.

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday, August 2, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable; - 41% unfavorable (-1, nc)
Obama: 53% favorable; - 44% unfavorable (-2, nc)

McCain earns positive reviews from 86% of Republicans while Obama does the same from 82% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, 60% have a favorable opinion of McCain. For Obama, that number is 50%.

Cindy McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of American voters, Michelle Obama by 46%.

No comment. I'm depressed enough

[Eraserhead]

Hey, I'd rather be ahead than not.

[Democratic Hawk]

Hey, I'd rather be ahead than not.

True, but it's more McCain's favorables where I object

[Rowan]

Only viewed favorably by 50% of Indies? That will spell trouble come November as the Democrats Party ID advantage is decresing.

[Democratic Hawk]

Only viewed favorably by 50% of Indies? That will spell trouble come November as the Democrats Party ID advantage is decresing.

I sometimes wonder if many Independents nowadays are former Republicans

As for the polls, I'm putting more faith in the Electoral Barometer. Designed by political scientist Alan Abramowitz, it has predicted with accuracy the winner of the popular vote in all but one of the last 15 presidential elections; 1968 being the exception. It weighs together three factors:

1. The improval rating of the incumbent president
2. The economy's growth rate
3. Whether the president's party has controlled the White House for two-terms (the "time for change factor")

This formula gives the Republican candidate (McCain) -60, second only to that of Carter's -62, IIRC, in 1980 (and we know what happened to him). It may well have ticked a little towards McCain, giving that the economy grew by 1.9% in the 2nd quarter (up from 1.0% in the 1st)

Dave