Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday June 4, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 47%, including leaners
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaders

Leaners are survey respondents who initially do not favor either candidate but indicate their support on a follow-up question.

Both candidates have a lot of work to do if they are to win a majority of the popular vote. Just 32% of voters say they are “certain” to vote for Obama and an identical number are “certain” to vote for McCain. That means 36% of the nation’s voters are open to possibly changing their vote.

As the General Election season begins, Obama attracts 96% of the African-American vote while McCain holds a thirteen-point lead among White voters. Obama leads by nine among voters of other racial and ethnic backgrounds, primarily Latino voters (these figures are based upon the results including leaners).

Obama leads by a two-to-one margin among voters under 30 and holds a significant lead among 30-somethings. McCain has the edge among those 40 and older, attracting the votes from 50% of these voters.

McCain leads by ten percentage points among White Women. However, Obama has the edge among White Women Under 40 while McCain enjoys a substantial advantage among older White Women.

Government employees are essentially evenly divided between the two candidates. McCain has a 53% to 39% advantage among Entrepreneurs while Obama leads 50% to 41% among those who work for someone else in the Private Sector.

From a partisan perspective, McCain attracts 83% of Republicans while Obama is supported by 76% of Democrats. McCain has an eight-point advantage over Obama among unaffiliated voters. Keep in mind that many of this year’s unaffiliated voters were Republicans four-years ago. The number identifying with the GOP has declined from just under 37% in 2004 to 31% today. At the same time, many unaffiliated voters from four years ago, now consider themselves to be Democrats.

Favorability

Obama: 55% favourable; 43% unfavorable
McCain: 53% favorable; 44% unfavorable

Issues

Forty-three percent (43%) of voters say McCain is a better leader than Obama while 38% hold the opposite view.

When asked which candidate has personal values closer to their won, 43% name McCain and 42% say Obama (crosstabs available for Premium Members).

Forty-four percent (44%) trust McCain most when it comes to economic issues and managing the economy while 40% prefer Obama.

On national security issues such as the War in Iraq and the War on Terrorism, 51% have more trust in McCain while 37% prefer Obama

Tracking Poll results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. Rasmussen Reports has made a number of changes in our tracking poll as we shift to fully focus on the fall campaign. Starting on Monday, we increased our tracking poll calls to interview 1,000 Likely Voters per night. We will now be reporting results on a three-day rolling average basis. Previously, we had reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The increased number of calls will enable us to provide even more detailed and timely coverage of Election 2008. Over the coming two weeks, many new features will be rolled out, some for the public site and some for Premium Members.

[War on Want]

Here comes the nomination bump!!!

[Verily]

That's a very sudden shift in their favorability numbers (for both candidates). Odd.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Well, I don't think we will see the real bump in Obama numbers until Hilliary drops out and backs him.

[Gustaf]

That's a very sudden shift in their favorability numbers (for both candidates). Odd.

My thoughts exactly. Very odd. Interesting that Obama seems to be doing so poorly with Hispanics. The white number, on the other hand, isn't so bad for a Democrat is it?

[Verily]

That's a very sudden shift in their favorability numbers (for both candidates). Odd.

My thoughts exactly. Very odd. Interesting that Obama seems to be doing so poorly with Hispanics. The white number, on the other hand, isn't so bad for a Democrat is it?

If Kerry had those breakdowns in 2004, he would have won Ohio and the election (assuming a uniform swing of demographics), as well as possibly other states. Kerry did lose whites by IIRC eighteen points in 2004. Bear in mind of course that the sample sizes for blacks and Hispanics both are quite small, only a couple hundred at most.

[Gustaf]

That's a very sudden shift in their favorability numbers (for both candidates). Odd.

My thoughts exactly. Very odd. Interesting that Obama seems to be doing so poorly with Hispanics. The white number, on the other hand, isn't so bad for a Democrat is it?

If Kerry had those breakdowns in 2004, he would have won Ohio and the election (assuming a uniform swing of demographics), as well as possibly other states. Kerry did lose whites by IIRC eighteen points in 2004. Bear in mind of course that the sample sizes for blacks and Hispanics both are quite small, only a couple hundred at most.

Yes, yes, of course. Still, given undecideds and MoE the difference between 13 and 18 isn't enormous. Besides, I suspect Obama whites will be spread unevenly across the states compared to Kerry's...

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

So in other words, Obama is yet another George McGovern, who is going to rely on the "youth" vote to put him in the White House.   

God help us all.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

So in other words, Obama is yet another George McGovern, who is going to rely on the "youth" vote to put him in the White House.   

God help us all.

MikeyCNY is posting again.

God help us all.

[Hashemite]

Here we go until November.

[Keystone Phil]

Here comes the nomination bump!!!

Oh yeah! Obama beating McCain by two points! Can you people say land-slide?

[Hashemite]

Here comes the nomination bump!!!

Oh yeah! Obama beating McCain by two points! Can you people say land-slide?

YES WE CAN!

[Reaganfan]

An african american vs. hispanic riff has been long-founded, just as you see the racism riff in areas of Alabama, Kentucky, ect. Obama is not as good a candidate for Hispanics as McCain is.

[The Mikado]

An african american vs. hispanic riff has been long-founded, just as you see the racism riff in areas of Alabama, Kentucky, ect. Obama is not as good a candidate for Hispanics as McCain is.

Mike, I will freely admit that John McCain has more pull in the Hispanic community than any other person the Republicans could've nominated this cycle.  But do you think that he could overcome the image that GOP immigration hardliners have branded on the entire Republican Party over the last four years?  I think that McCain won't match Bush's (quite good for a Republican) 2004 numbers among Hispanics.

Kind of a shame that one of the few issues I agree with both McCain and George W. Bush on is one where they disagree with practically all Congressional Republicans.

[TheresNoMoney]

Oh yeah! Obama beating McCain by two points! Can you people say land-slide?

This poll was taken before Obama clinched the nomination. I expect to see him get a bump of a few percentage points sometime mid-to-late next week after Hillary drops out and endorses him.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

An african american vs. hispanic riff has been long-founded, just as you see the racism riff in areas of Alabama, Kentucky, ect. Obama is not as good a candidate for Hispanics as McCain is.

Are you saying you think McCain will win the Hispanic vote?

[Prez Duke]

OBAMA SURGING TO AN INSURMOUNTABLE NATIONAL LEAD!

[Lief]

OBAMA SURGING TO AN INSURMOUNTABLE NATIONAL LEAD!

Yeah, and, when this poll was taken, Obama hadn't even won the primary/been endorsed by Clinton/united the party yet.

Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

[Harry Hayfield]

Now I realise that I am (compared to Mr. Rasmussen) not an expert, but there's something bout this map that doesn't tally



The colour scale is: very dark (bankers), inbetween light and dark (likely), light (leaners)

Since when has VA leaned GOP (I have it in 2004 as a GOP banker), similarily why is PA is leaner (2004 ssays a Dem banker)

[Reaganfan]

An african american vs. hispanic riff has been long-founded, just as you see the racism riff in areas of Alabama, Kentucky, ect. Obama is not as good a candidate for Hispanics as McCain is.

Are you saying you think McCain will win the Hispanic vote?

Unsure. I think he'll do well better than Bush. After all, "McCain is for amnesty", right?

[Josh/Devilman88]

An african american vs. hispanic riff has been long-founded, just as you see the racism riff in areas of Alabama, Kentucky, ect. Obama is not as good a candidate for Hispanics as McCain is.

Are you saying you think McCain will win the Hispanic vote?

Unsure. I think he'll do well better than Bush. After all, "McCain is for amnesty", right?

But isn't Obama for it too? I'm not to sure, that is an subject I don't look into to much.

[Prez Duke]

OBAMA SURGING TO AN INSURMOUNTABLE NATIONAL LEAD!

Yeah, and, when this poll was taken, Obama hadn't even won the primary/been endorsed by Clinton/united the party yet.

Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

It's hilarious that you think the members of your party are so stupid and starstruck that they'll walk hand in hand to support Obama because Hillary says so. Yes, most of them will, but it's not going to be 100% or even 90%.

[Josh/Devilman88]

OBAMA SURGING TO AN INSURMOUNTABLE NATIONAL LEAD!

Yeah, and, when this poll was taken, Obama hadn't even won the primary/been endorsed by Clinton/united the party yet.

Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

It's hilarious that you think the members of your party are so stupid and starstruck that they'll walk hand in hand to support Obama because Hillary says so. Yes, most of them will, but it's not going to be 100% or even 90%.

Well the last PPP poll done, they said if he could get 80% of the Clinton supports he would be ahead in NC by 3%, so Obama doesn't need 100% or even 90%. Just 80%

[Keystone Phil]

Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

LOL

Here were are at a time when people are talking about an incredibly weak GOP and an almost unstoppable Obama and your candidate is only up two points. Which one is pathetic again?

[Lief]

Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

LOL

Here were are at a time when people are talking about an incredibly weak GOP and an almost unstoppable Obama and your candidate is only up two points. Which one is pathetic again?

Probably the one who struggles to raise $15 million a month fully 3 months after he won the nomination? Or the one who can barely manage a lead when his opponent's party is divided by a long and bitter primary? The one whose recent speech was completely out-done by the loser of the Democratic primaries, not to even mention the winner? Yeah.