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Author Topic: Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]  (Read 257653 times)
Reaganfan
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« Reply #25 on: June 05, 2008, 12:56:52 pm »
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Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

LOL

Here were are at a time when people are talking about an incredibly weak GOP and an almost unstoppable Obama and your candidate is only up two points. Which one is pathetic again?
Probably the one who struggles to raise $15 million a month fully 3 months after he won the nomination? Or the one who can barely manage a lead when his opponent's party is divided by a long and bitter primary? The one whose recent speech was completely out-done by the loser of the Democratic primaries, not to even mention the winner? Yeah.

Thanks for avoiding his point.

We're not going to win this election...Bush's approval is down to 25%....we are being outraised...and yet the race is tied?
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« Reply #26 on: June 05, 2008, 01:50:04 pm »
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An african american vs. hispanic riff has been long-founded, just as you see the racism riff in areas of Alabama, Kentucky, ect. Obama is not as good a candidate for Hispanics as McCain is.

Mike,

From Gallup (May 1-31), among Hispanics, Obama leads McCain by 62 to 29

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107689/Early-Gallup-Road-Map-McCainObama-Matchup.aspx

Dave
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« Reply #27 on: June 05, 2008, 01:52:47 pm »
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Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

LOL

Here were are at a time when people are talking about an incredibly weak GOP and an almost unstoppable Obama and your candidate is only up two points. Which one is pathetic again?
Probably the one who struggles to raise $15 million a month fully 3 months after he won the nomination? Or the one who can barely manage a lead when his opponent's party is divided by a long and bitter primary? The one whose recent speech was completely out-done by the loser of the Democratic primaries, not to even mention the winner? Yeah.

Thanks for avoiding his point.

We're not going to win this election...Bush's approval is down to 25%....we are being outraised...and yet the race is tied?
Yep, at the absolute low point in Obama's campaign, he's still leading McCain. Congratulations.
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« Reply #28 on: June 05, 2008, 01:53:06 pm »
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Thursday June 5, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 47%, including leaners (-, -)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaders (-, -)

Favorability

McCain: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (+2, -2)
Obama: 54% favourable; 43% unfavorable (-1, -)
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #29 on: June 05, 2008, 01:54:24 pm »
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Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

LOL

Here were are at a time when people are talking about an incredibly weak GOP and an almost unstoppable Obama and your candidate is only up two points. Which one is pathetic again?
Probably the one who struggles to raise $15 million a month fully 3 months after he won the nomination? Or the one who can barely manage a lead when his opponent's party is divided by a long and bitter primary? The one whose recent speech was completely out-done by the loser of the Democratic primaries, not to even mention the winner? Yeah.

And...he's still only trailing by two points. Yeah. Thank you.


Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

LOL

Here were are at a time when people are talking about an incredibly weak GOP and an almost unstoppable Obama and your candidate is only up two points. Which one is pathetic again?
Probably the one who struggles to raise $15 million a month fully 3 months after he won the nomination? Or the one who can barely manage a lead when his opponent's party is divided by a long and bitter primary? The one whose recent speech was completely out-done by the loser of the Democratic primaries, not to even mention the winner? Yeah.

Thanks for avoiding his point.

We're not going to win this election...Bush's approval is down to 25%....we are being outraised...and yet the race is tied?
Yep, at the absolute low point in Obama's campaign, he's still leading McCain. Congratulations.

Absolute low point? The man just clinched the nomination.
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« Reply #30 on: June 05, 2008, 01:57:24 pm »
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Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

LOL

Here were are at a time when people are talking about an incredibly weak GOP and an almost unstoppable Obama and your candidate is only up two points. Which one is pathetic again?
Probably the one who struggles to raise $15 million a month fully 3 months after he won the nomination? Or the one who can barely manage a lead when his opponent's party is divided by a long and bitter primary? The one whose recent speech was completely out-done by the loser of the Democratic primaries, not to even mention the winner? Yeah.

And...he's still only trailing by two points. Yeah. Thank you.


Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

LOL

Here were are at a time when people are talking about an incredibly weak GOP and an almost unstoppable Obama and your candidate is only up two points. Which one is pathetic again?
Probably the one who struggles to raise $15 million a month fully 3 months after he won the nomination? Or the one who can barely manage a lead when his opponent's party is divided by a long and bitter primary? The one whose recent speech was completely out-done by the loser of the Democratic primaries, not to even mention the winner? Yeah.

Thanks for avoiding his point.

We're not going to win this election...Bush's approval is down to 25%....we are being outraised...and yet the race is tied?
Yep, at the absolute low point in Obama's campaign, he's still leading McCain. Congratulations.

Absolute low point? The man just clinched the nomination.
...after this poll was released.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #31 on: June 05, 2008, 01:58:39 pm »
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Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

LOL

Here were are at a time when people are talking about an incredibly weak GOP and an almost unstoppable Obama and your candidate is only up two points. Which one is pathetic again?
Probably the one who struggles to raise $15 million a month fully 3 months after he won the nomination? Or the one who can barely manage a lead when his opponent's party is divided by a long and bitter primary? The one whose recent speech was completely out-done by the loser of the Democratic primaries, not to even mention the winner? Yeah.

And...he's still only trailing by two points. Yeah. Thank you.


Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

LOL

Here were are at a time when people are talking about an incredibly weak GOP and an almost unstoppable Obama and your candidate is only up two points. Which one is pathetic again?
Probably the one who struggles to raise $15 million a month fully 3 months after he won the nomination? Or the one who can barely manage a lead when his opponent's party is divided by a long and bitter primary? The one whose recent speech was completely out-done by the loser of the Democratic primaries, not to even mention the winner? Yeah.

Thanks for avoiding his point.

We're not going to win this election...Bush's approval is down to 25%....we are being outraised...and yet the race is tied?
Yep, at the absolute low point in Obama's campaign, he's still leading McCain. Congratulations.

Absolute low point? The man just clinched the nomination.
...after this poll was released.

Everyone knew he was going to be the nominee by the time this poll was conducted. Give me a break. And don't tell me this was the "absolute low point" in Obama's campaign. Complete nonsense.
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« Reply #32 on: June 05, 2008, 02:00:12 pm »
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Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

LOL

Here were are at a time when people are talking about an incredibly weak GOP and an almost unstoppable Obama and your candidate is only up two points. Which one is pathetic again?
Probably the one who struggles to raise $15 million a month fully 3 months after he won the nomination? Or the one who can barely manage a lead when his opponent's party is divided by a long and bitter primary? The one whose recent speech was completely out-done by the loser of the Democratic primaries, not to even mention the winner? Yeah.

And...he's still only trailing by two points. Yeah. Thank you.


Hahaha, your candidate is pathetic.

LOL

Here were are at a time when people are talking about an incredibly weak GOP and an almost unstoppable Obama and your candidate is only up two points. Which one is pathetic again?
Probably the one who struggles to raise $15 million a month fully 3 months after he won the nomination? Or the one who can barely manage a lead when his opponent's party is divided by a long and bitter primary? The one whose recent speech was completely out-done by the loser of the Democratic primaries, not to even mention the winner? Yeah.

Thanks for avoiding his point.

We're not going to win this election...Bush's approval is down to 25%....we are being outraised...and yet the race is tied?
Yep, at the absolute low point in Obama's campaign, he's still leading McCain. Congratulations.

Absolute low point? The man just clinched the nomination.

I don´t see a problem here. The Rasmussen "Daily Tracking" is based on a 3-day rolling average, 2 nights were polled before Clinton was defeated. Wait a week or 2 to see if he got any bump. By the way look at the Bush-Kerry graph from June 2004:



Bush started leading by 2-3 in Mid June. So if Obama's ahead by 5 in Mid-June it would translate into a 5-8% swing compared with 2004. So what´s bad about it ? Do you expect Obama to be ahead by 10-20% right now ?
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #33 on: June 05, 2008, 02:01:38 pm »
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Its going to be a long summer and fall...McCain does have the advantage that the GOP convention follows Obama's.

Given how things are going (stagnant economic growth <1% last Q, $4/Gallon etc), I would have expected a slightly larger Obama lead, but its still too far out to really boast or get one's panties in a twist.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #34 on: June 05, 2008, 02:05:43 pm »
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So what´s bad about it ? Do you expect Obama to be ahead by 10-20% right now ?

About ten, yes.
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« Reply #35 on: June 05, 2008, 05:25:44 pm »
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So what´s bad about it ? Do you expect Obama to be ahead by 10-20% right now ?

About ten, yes.

Phil, you cannot be encouraged by that.  The issues do not bode well for the GOP this time around.  You should expect that McCain would be ahead right now considering the amount of dirt dug up about people surrounding Obama and his gaffes during the primaries.  The GE is going to be very issue-oriented and I don't think McCain can GAIN in the polls from that.  I'd like the hear your perspective on how with so many issues going against him McCain is going to be able to pick up support.
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« Reply #36 on: June 05, 2008, 06:19:21 pm »
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So what´s bad about it ? Do you expect Obama to be ahead by 10-20% right now ?

About ten, yes.

Phil, you cannot be encouraged by that.  The issues do not bode well for the GOP this time around.  You should expect that McCain would be ahead right now considering the amount of dirt dug up about people surrounding Obama and his gaffes during the primaries.  The GE is going to be very issue-oriented and I don't think McCain can GAIN in the polls from that.  I'd like the hear your perspective on how with so many issues going against him McCain is going to be able to pick up support.

I shouldn't be encouraged by what? McCain being down two instead of the expected ten points?

With all due respect, you're a little too confident and naive to say something like "this is going to be very issue oriented." Sure, it will mainly be about the "real" issues as it should be. However, some of this "non important" issues still have a huge impact.

The issues may favor your side for now but who is to say that that will last? Will Obama's economic policies be wildly popular? Not necessarily. What's he going to propose when it comes to tax policy? Will people see McCain as more of the proven reformer compared to Obama? Possibly. Is the war, as unpopular as it may be, as bad as it once was? Will people be as supportive of a quick withdrawal with fewer troops dying? Who knows. We have to wait and see.

I like the position McCain is in right now. Also, remember that we need to look beyond the simple "Who is leading in popular vote?" polls.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #37 on: June 05, 2008, 06:25:31 pm »
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So what´s bad about it ? Do you expect Obama to be ahead by 10-20% right now ?

About ten, yes.

Phil, you cannot be encouraged by that.  The issues do not bode well for the GOP this time around.  You should expect that McCain would be ahead right now considering the amount of dirt dug up about people surrounding Obama and his gaffes during the primaries.  The GE is going to be very issue-oriented and I don't think McCain can GAIN in the polls from that.  I'd like the hear your perspective on how with so many issues going against him McCain is going to be able to pick up support.

I shouldn't be encouraged by what? McCain being down two instead of the expected ten points?

With all due respect, you're a little too confident and naive to say something like "this is going to be very issue oriented." Sure, it will mainly be about the "real" issues as it should be. However, some of this "non important" issues still have a huge impact.

The issues may favor your side for now but who is to say that that will last? Will Obama's economic policies be wildly popular? Not necessarily. What's he going to propose when it comes to tax policy? Will people see McCain as more of the proven reformer compared to Obama? Possibly. Is the war, as unpopular as it may be, as bad as it once was? Will people be as supportive of a quick withdrawal with fewer troops dying? Who knows. We have to wait and see.

I like the position McCain is in right now. Also, remember that we need to look beyond the simple "Who is leading in popular vote?" polls.

AMEN!

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/06/26/cnn.poll/index.html

June 26, 2000

          Now    June 6-7

Bush    52%   48%
Gore    39%   44%


Obama should be up on McCain by even more than Bush was up on Gore.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2008, 06:27:11 pm by Mike for McCain »Logged
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« Reply #38 on: June 05, 2008, 06:43:05 pm »
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We could make the simple counterargument that, if Republicans truly do lose fourteen points between June and November, Obama is safely President already. Obviously this isn't the case, but then it is also the case that Bush's numbers in 2000 have no relevancy at all to today. Those numbers mean nothing other than that things change. (And, given that Bush had won the nomination by early March if not before, the point is moot anyway.)
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« Reply #39 on: June 05, 2008, 07:33:57 pm »
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So what´s bad about it ? Do you expect Obama to be ahead by 10-20% right now ?

About ten, yes.

Phil, you cannot be encouraged by that.  The issues do not bode well for the GOP this time around.  You should expect that McCain would be ahead right now considering the amount of dirt dug up about people surrounding Obama and his gaffes during the primaries.  The GE is going to be very issue-oriented and I don't think McCain can GAIN in the polls from that.  I'd like the hear your perspective on how with so many issues going against him McCain is going to be able to pick up support.

I shouldn't be encouraged by what? McCain being down two instead of the expected ten points?

With all due respect, you're a little too confident and naive to say something like "this is going to be very issue oriented." Sure, it will mainly be about the "real" issues as it should be. However, some of this "non important" issues still have a huge impact.

The issues may favor your side for now but who is to say that that will last? Will Obama's economic policies be wildly popular? Not necessarily. What's he going to propose when it comes to tax policy? Will people see McCain as more of the proven reformer compared to Obama? Possibly. Is the war, as unpopular as it may be, as bad as it once was? Will people be as supportive of a quick withdrawal with fewer troops dying? Who knows. We have to wait and see.

I like the position McCain is in right now. Also, remember that we need to look beyond the simple "Who is leading in popular vote?" polls.

I am confident but I'm not naive to think that this is a Democratic year.  I didn't guarantee that Obama's proposals would be wildly popular, but when McCain's policies are as close to the past 8 years as they are when the current administration has an approval rating around 30%, I don't think it's too far-fetched to think a "change" message would have more appeal. 
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« Reply #40 on: June 05, 2008, 08:01:56 pm »
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I am confident but I'm not naive to think that this is a Democratic year.  I didn't guarantee that Obama's proposals would be wildly popular, but when McCain's policies are as close to the past 8 years as they are when the current administration has an approval rating around 30%, I don't think it's too far-fetched to think a "change" message would have more appeal. 

McCain will have some trouble with "connections" to the President but he has more of a "change" spin on them. McCain can point to a longer record as a maverick.
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« Reply #41 on: June 05, 2008, 08:17:39 pm »
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I am confident but I'm not naive to think that this is a Democratic year.  I didn't guarantee that Obama's proposals would be wildly popular, but when McCain's policies are as close to the past 8 years as they are when the current administration has an approval rating around 30%, I don't think it's too far-fetched to think a "change" message would have more appeal. 

McCain will have some trouble with "connections" to the President but he has more of a "change" spin on them. McCain can point to a longer record as a maverick.

That he can, if he couldn't this would be a blowout. 

God you guys are lucky you didn't nominate Romney. 
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« Reply #42 on: June 05, 2008, 08:23:04 pm »
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Be patient about bounces.  Also, be realistic about what they actually mean.  It should happen that a bounce will occur, but there are a few reasons in my head why none may occur right now.  It is hard to tell.
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« Reply #43 on: June 06, 2008, 10:01:01 am »
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Copying Dave's reporting style...



Friday June 6, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (+2, +1)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (-1, -2)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favourable; 42% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-, +1)
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« Reply #44 on: June 07, 2008, 09:38:19 am »
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Saturday June 7, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (+1, -)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+2, +2)

Obama’s bounce is primarily the result of Democrats beginning to unify behind his candidacy. For the first time all year, Obama is supported by 80% of Democrats over McCain. In recent months, his support from Democrats has typically been in the high-60’s or low-70’s range.

McCain is supported by 84% of Republicans and holds an eight-point lead among unaffiliated voters. The bad news for McCain is that there are a lot more Democrats than Republicans
.

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 42% unfavorable (-, -)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-, -)
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« Reply #45 on: June 07, 2008, 10:04:40 pm »
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Wow, you Democrats were right! The Obama nomination clinching bump was HUGEEE!!!

47-45 lead to 48-45 lead in the Rasmussen tracking poll.  AMAZING!!!
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« Reply #46 on: June 07, 2008, 10:16:22 pm »
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Wow, you Democrats were right! The Obama nomination clinching bump was HUGEEE!!!

47-45 lead to 48-45 lead in the Rasmussen tracking poll.  AMAZING!!!

I know I'm not a Democrat, but anyone who expected an overnight 15-point bump is kidding themselves.  Why would Obama get the support of disaffected Clintonites overnight?  I imagine that won't really happen meaningfully into the one-on-one campaign gets going.

Not saying it will be 15 points, btw.
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« Reply #47 on: June 07, 2008, 11:15:20 pm »
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It will probably take 3-4 days for any "rally effect," June 15-16 should be the most telling.
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« Reply #48 on: June 08, 2008, 12:03:47 am »
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It will probably take 3-4 days for any "rally effect," June 15-16 should be the most telling.

I honestly think the "returning to the ideological norm" bump has the greater potential than the "rally effect," assuming rally also includes excitement about having a Dem nominee.  I'm not sure this is going to be a sudden bump.  Sam and I seem to be the only one who think this though.
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« Reply #49 on: June 08, 2008, 12:27:28 am »
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It will probably take 3-4 days for any "rally effect," June 15-16 should be the most telling.

I honestly think the "returning to the ideological norm" bump has the greater potential than the "rally effect," assuming rally also includes excitement about having a Dem nominee.  I'm not sure this is going to be a sudden bump.  Sam and I seem to be the only one who think this though.

Remember that "returns to the ideological norms" can flow both ways, especially considering when the original movement occurred.
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