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Author Topic: Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]  (Read 253240 times)
Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #100 on: June 14, 2008, 12:55:11 pm »
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Saturday June 14, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, +2)
McCain: 52% favorable; 45% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of women and 52% of men. McCain earns favorable reviews from 54% of men and 51% of women.

Among voters under 30, 62% have a favorable opinion of Obama. Those ratings decline steadily by ageójust 49% of seniors (65+) have a favorable opinion of the Democratic candidate. McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of seniors, his highest rating from any age group. His weakest reviews come from 30-somethings. Among these young adults, 49% have a favorable opinion of the Republican standard bearer.

Few surprises are seen on a partisan basis. Obama is viewed favorably by 82% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans. McCain is viewed favorably by 81% of Republicans and 29% of Democrats. For all the talk of post-partisanship, the campaign is shaping up so far along fiercely partisan lines. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, McCain is viewed favorably by 55%, Obama by 51%.
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Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

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« Reply #101 on: June 14, 2008, 04:18:13 pm »
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If you agree, then what are you complaining about?

No-one's advocating meeting Bin Laden, the argument is over to meet with people like Adjeminihad etc.

See, but I put Adjeminihad in the same category as Osama.

Ahmadinejad is a democratically elected leader of a sovereign country. He's ahead of the Saudis in the pecking order, yet the President has no problem holding their hands.
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J.J., I wanted to congratulate you on your assignment "A Typical Day In My Life". I think you did a superb job with it. So good that I think I'll share it with everyone else.


Daniel Adams
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« Reply #102 on: June 14, 2008, 04:22:44 pm »
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If you agree, then what are you complaining about?

No-one's advocating meeting Bin Laden, the argument is over to meet with people like Adjeminihad etc.

See, but I put Adjeminihad in the same category as Osama.

Ahmadinejad is a democratically elected leader of a sovereign country. He's ahead of the Saudis in the pecking order, yet the President has no problem holding their hands.
Democratically elected? Well, in the same way Robert Mugabe is "democratically elected", I guess. The democratic credentials of a race where a special group of unelected theocrats get to determine who runs are suspicious. Additionally, there were several reports of fraud in favor of Ahmadinezhad.
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Iosif
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« Reply #103 on: June 14, 2008, 04:27:42 pm »
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If you agree, then what are you complaining about?

No-one's advocating meeting Bin Laden, the argument is over to meet with people like Adjeminihad etc.

See, but I put Adjeminihad in the same category as Osama.

Ahmadinejad is a democratically elected leader of a sovereign country. He's ahead of the Saudis in the pecking order, yet the President has no problem holding their hands.
Democratically elected? Well, in the same way Robert Mugabe is "democratically elected", I guess. The democratic credentials of a race where a special group of unelected theocrats get to determine who runs are suspicious. Additionally, there were several reports of fraud in favor of Ahmadinezhad.

We could discuss the level of democracy in Iran until we're both blue in the face. The fact is Iran is a lot more democratic than a whole sting of American allies in the Middle East, the leaders of which the President has no problem meeting.
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J.J., I wanted to congratulate you on your assignment "A Typical Day In My Life". I think you did a superb job with it. So good that I think I'll share it with everyone else.


Verily
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« Reply #104 on: June 15, 2008, 09:27:39 am »
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Sunday June 15, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 39% / 43%, including leaners (-1, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, -1)
McCain: 52% favorable; 45% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of women and 50% of men. McCain earns favorable reviews from 54% of men and 50% of women.

Among voters under 30, 62% have a favorable opinion of Obama. Those ratings decline steadily by ageójust 49% of seniors (65+) have a favorable opinion of the Democratic candidate. McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of seniors, his highest rating from any age group. His weakest reviews come from 30-somethings. Among these young adults, 49% have a favorable opinion of the Republican standard bearer.

Few surprises are seen on a partisan basis. Obama is viewed favorably by 82% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans. McCain is viewed favorably by 81% of Republicans and 29% of Democrats. For all the talk of post-partisanship, the campaign is shaping up so far along fiercely partisan lines. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, McCain is viewed favorably by 55%, Obama by 51%. 




People are apparently becoming less decided as time goes on. Or maybe weekend respondents are generally less decisive?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #105 on: June 15, 2008, 09:39:51 am »
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There's just a lot of uncertainty in the world.

Seriously though, this race has a lot more flexibility than 2004.  Instead of 47% of people immovable - this race probably has less than 45%, maybe more like 43% on each side.  But less than the 40% you saw in elections prior to the 1990s.

The number of undecideds doesn't surprise me at all.  And the fact that people are moving towards undecided is even less surprising.

That's the reason why I say - patience.
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J. J.
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« Reply #106 on: June 15, 2008, 11:43:59 am »
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I think in a week, we'll be characterizing the race as "close, with a lot of undecideds."  Smiley
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #107 on: June 16, 2008, 09:14:41 am »
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Monday June 16, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (-1, -1)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (+1, +1)

Favorability

McCain: 55% favorable; 44% unfavorable (+3, -1)
Obama: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)
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Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

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Alaska Thunderfvck
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« Reply #108 on: June 16, 2008, 09:19:52 am »
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The bump indeed seems to have died down.
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« Reply #109 on: June 16, 2008, 05:24:03 pm »
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There was one, and there still might be some left.  It wasn't huge and it wasn't long lasting. 

It might take the rest of the week for it to shake out.
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J. J.

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- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

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Sam Spade
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« Reply #110 on: June 16, 2008, 06:01:53 pm »
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It's either the addition of a strong McCain sample or the removal of a strong Obama sample - only time will tell. 

OTOH, Gallup has already shown the classic tracking-poll draw down - from Obama +6 to Obama +4.  We'll see whether that continues.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #111 on: June 17, 2008, 10:33:52 am »
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Tuesday June 17, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, -1)
McCain: 53% favorable; 44% unfavorable (-2, nc)
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Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #112 on: June 18, 2008, 08:44:58 am »
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Wednesday June 18, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (+1, +1)

With leaners, McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans while Obama gets the vote from 79% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, itís Obama 46% McCain 41%.

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, +1)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+2, -1)

At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the Presidential race in Alaska and Maine. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, data on the Maine Senate race will be released. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released from an Ohio poll conducted last night.
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J. J.
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« Reply #113 on: June 18, 2008, 08:57:07 am »
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My guess is a 3-4 point race.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #114 on: June 18, 2008, 09:11:09 am »
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At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the Presidential race in Alaska and Maine. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, data on the Maine Senate race will be released. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released from an Ohio poll conducted last night.

Perhaps Rasmussen will confirm recent trends from other pollsters (SUSA, Obama +9; PPP, Obama +11; and Qunnipiac, Obama +6) in OH. In May, he had McCain on 45%; Obama 44%

It will be interesting to see whether AK has tightened and Obama continues to hold big lead in ME

Dave
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Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

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« Reply #115 on: June 18, 2008, 09:13:12 am »
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Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #116 on: June 18, 2008, 09:16:30 am »
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Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

I agree, and ME will be Obama by 10% or more and Ohio will be around 9% Obama.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #117 on: June 18, 2008, 09:19:02 am »
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Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

In April, McCain had a 5-point lead (48-43); but in May, AK shifted his way giving him a 9-point lead (50-41), so any moving towards Obama will raise a Smiley from me

Dave
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Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

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« Reply #118 on: June 18, 2008, 10:28:48 am »
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Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

4 to be correct. Wink
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« Reply #119 on: June 18, 2008, 10:30:47 am »
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Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

4 to be correct. Wink

Where are you seeing that?  Is the poll out?  I thought the extrapolation was 43-41.
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« Reply #120 on: June 18, 2008, 09:33:50 pm »
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Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

4 to be correct. Wink

Where are you seeing that?  Is the poll out?  I thought the extrapolation was 43-41.

Ah, Alcon, I don't quite know how to tell you this (you do seem to have trouble understanding basic concepts), but, extrapolating on survey results is stongly frowned upon in the survey research industry.
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« Reply #121 on: June 18, 2008, 09:39:57 pm »
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Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

4 to be correct. Wink

Where are you seeing that?  Is the poll out?  I thought the extrapolation was 43-41.

Ah, Alcon, I don't quite know how to tell you this (you do seem to have trouble understanding basic concepts), but, extrapolating on survey results is stongly frowned upon in the survey research industry.

Extrapolating cross-tabs from the same survey, however, is not frowned upon.  I just managed to forget about the Undecided sample, which evidently broke for McCain Smiley
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« Reply #122 on: June 18, 2008, 09:41:41 pm »
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Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

I agree, and ME will be Obama by 10% or more and Ohio will be around 9% Obama.

Obama is winning Ohio by 9%? Good grief.
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« Reply #123 on: June 18, 2008, 09:53:30 pm »
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Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

4 to be correct. Wink

Where if Vorlon when we need him!?!

I am posting this reply merely to prevent your deleting you assertion that extrapolation is not frowned upon in the survey research industry.

Where are you seeing that?  Is the poll out?  I thought the extrapolation was 43-41.

Ah, Alcon, I don't quite know how to tell you this (you do seem to have trouble understanding basic concepts), but, extrapolating on survey results is stongly frowned upon in the survey research industry.

Extrapolating cross-tabs from the same survey, however, is not frowned upon.  I just managed to forget about the Undecided sample, which evidently broke for McCain Smiley
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« Reply #124 on: June 18, 2008, 10:01:20 pm »
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It's not extrapolation; I was using the wrong phrase.  It's using sub-samples to calculate other samples.

CARL, this is essentially what I did.  Here's an example:

Male (51%): Obama 51%, McCain 48%
Female (49%): Obama 54%, McCain 45%

Now, 51% of the sample is male and 49% is female.

Thus, the Obama sample is (0.51*0.51)+(0.49*0.54) = 0.5247 = 52% Obama

And the McCain sample is (0.51*0.48)+(0.49*0.45) = 47% McCain

I realize this introduces some rounding error, but when the sub-sample is from the same poll, it does give you a very close approximation of the results -- unless you screw up the math by forgetting Undecideds, which I did.  This should work in any instance where you have samples that constitute the entirety of the poll, and then results for what you're trying to determine for those samples.

You can feel free to tell me where I'm wrong on the math, but I do not believe I am.  Smiley  And I haven't ever deleted a post and claimed I didn't make it, so you're really just archiving your inability to use the QUOTE tag.
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