Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday June 14, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 47% / 49%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 44% unfavorable (nc, +2)
McCain: 52% favorable; 45% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of women and 52% of men. McCain earns favorable reviews from 54% of men and 51% of women.

Among voters under 30, 62% have a favorable opinion of Obama. Those ratings decline steadily by age—just 49% of seniors (65+) have a favorable opinion of the Democratic candidate. McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of seniors, his highest rating from any age group. His weakest reviews come from 30-somethings. Among these young adults, 49% have a favorable opinion of the Republican standard bearer.

Few surprises are seen on a partisan basis. Obama is viewed favorably by 82% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans. McCain is viewed favorably by 81% of Republicans and 29% of Democrats. For all the talk of post-partisanship, the campaign is shaping up so far along fiercely partisan lines. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, McCain is viewed favorably by 55%, Obama by 51%.

[Iosif]

If you agree, then what are you complaining about?

No-one's advocating meeting Bin Laden, the argument is over to meet with people like Adjeminihad etc.

See, but I put Adjeminihad in the same category as Osama.

Ahmadinejad is a democratically elected leader of a sovereign country. He's ahead of the Saudis in the pecking order, yet the President has no problem holding their hands.

[Daniel Adams]

If you agree, then what are you complaining about?

No-one's advocating meeting Bin Laden, the argument is over to meet with people like Adjeminihad etc.

See, but I put Adjeminihad in the same category as Osama.

Ahmadinejad is a democratically elected leader of a sovereign country. He's ahead of the Saudis in the pecking order, yet the President has no problem holding their hands.

Democratically elected? Well, in the same way Robert Mugabe is "democratically elected", I guess. The democratic credentials of a race where a special group of unelected theocrats get to determine who runs are suspicious. Additionally, there were several reports of fraud in favor of Ahmadinezhad.

[Iosif]

If you agree, then what are you complaining about?

No-one's advocating meeting Bin Laden, the argument is over to meet with people like Adjeminihad etc.

See, but I put Adjeminihad in the same category as Osama.

Ahmadinejad is a democratically elected leader of a sovereign country. He's ahead of the Saudis in the pecking order, yet the President has no problem holding their hands.

Democratically elected? Well, in the same way Robert Mugabe is "democratically elected", I guess. The democratic credentials of a race where a special group of unelected theocrats get to determine who runs are suspicious. Additionally, there were several reports of fraud in favor of Ahmadinezhad.

We could discuss the level of democracy in Iran until we're both blue in the face. The fact is Iran is a lot more democratic than a whole sting of American allies in the Middle East, the leaders of which the President has no problem meeting.

[Verily]

Sunday June 15, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 39% / 43%, including leaners (-1, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, -1)
McCain: 52% favorable; 45% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of women and 50% of men. McCain earns favorable reviews from 54% of men and 50% of women.

Among voters under 30, 62% have a favorable opinion of Obama. Those ratings decline steadily by age—just 49% of seniors (65+) have a favorable opinion of the Democratic candidate. McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of seniors, his highest rating from any age group. His weakest reviews come from 30-somethings. Among these young adults, 49% have a favorable opinion of the Republican standard bearer.

Few surprises are seen on a partisan basis. Obama is viewed favorably by 82% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans. McCain is viewed favorably by 81% of Republicans and 29% of Democrats. For all the talk of post-partisanship, the campaign is shaping up so far along fiercely partisan lines. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, McCain is viewed favorably by 55%, Obama by 51%. 


People are apparently becoming less decided as time goes on. Or maybe weekend respondents are generally less decisive?

[Sam Spade]

There's just a lot of uncertainty in the world.

Seriously though, this race has a lot more flexibility than 2004.  Instead of 47% of people immovable - this race probably has less than 45%, maybe more like 43% on each side.  But less than the 40% you saw in elections prior to the 1990s.

The number of undecideds doesn't surprise me at all.  And the fact that people are moving towards undecided is even less surprising.

That's the reason why I say - patience.

[J. J.]

I think in a week, we'll be characterizing the race as "close, with a lot of undecideds." 

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday June 16, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (-1, -1)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (+1, +1)

Favorability

McCain: 55% favorable; 44% unfavorable (+3, -1)
Obama: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

[Alaska Thunderfvck]

The bump indeed seems to have died down.

[J. J.]

There was one, and there still might be some left.  It wasn't huge and it wasn't long lasting. 

It might take the rest of the week for it to shake out.

[Sam Spade]

It's either the addition of a strong McCain sample or the removal of a strong Obama sample - only time will tell. 

OTOH, Gallup has already shown the classic tracking-poll draw down - from Obama +6 to Obama +4.  We'll see whether that continues.

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday June 17, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 40% / 44%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable; 42% unfavorable (nc, -1)
McCain: 53% favorable; 44% unfavorable (-2, nc)

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday June 18, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (+1, +1)

With leaners, McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans while Obama gets the vote from 79% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, it’s Obama 46% McCain 41%.

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+1, +1)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (+2, -1)

At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the Presidential race in Alaska and Maine. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, data on the Maine Senate race will be released. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released from an Ohio poll conducted last night.

[J. J.]

My guess is a 3-4 point race.

[Democratic Hawk]

At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the Presidential race in Alaska and Maine. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, data on the Maine Senate race will be released. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, data will be released from an Ohio poll conducted last night.

Perhaps Rasmussen will confirm recent trends from other pollsters (SUSA, Obama +9; PPP, Obama +11; and Qunnipiac, Obama +6) in OH. In May, he had McCain on 45%; Obama 44%

It will be interesting to see whether AK has tightened and Obama continues to hold big lead in ME

Dave

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

[Josh/Devilman88]

Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

I agree, and ME will be Obama by 10% or more and Ohio will be around 9% Obama.

[Democratic Hawk]

Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

In April, McCain had a 5-point lead (48-43); but in May, AK shifted his way giving him a 9-point lead (50-41), so any moving towards Obama will raise a from me

Dave

[Tender Branson]

Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

4 to be correct.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

4 to be correct.

Where are you seeing that?  Is the poll out?  I thought the extrapolation was 43-41.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

4 to be correct.

Where are you seeing that?  Is the poll out?  I thought the extrapolation was 43-41.

Ah, Alcon, I don't quite know how to tell you this (you do seem to have trouble understanding basic concepts), but, extrapolating on survey results is stongly frowned upon in the survey research industry.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

4 to be correct.

Where are you seeing that?  Is the poll out?  I thought the extrapolation was 43-41.

Ah, Alcon, I don't quite know how to tell you this (you do seem to have trouble understanding basic concepts), but, extrapolating on survey results is stongly frowned upon in the survey research industry.

Extrapolating cross-tabs from the same survey, however, is not frowned upon.  I just managed to forget about the Undecided sample, which evidently broke for McCain

[Prez Duke]

Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

I agree, and ME will be Obama by 10% or more and Ohio will be around 9% Obama.

Obama is winning Ohio by 9%? Good grief.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Alaska is going to be within a few points (3 at most, 1 at least, if what I'm hearing is correct - probably McCain +2)

4 to be correct.

Where if Vorlon when we need him!?!

I am posting this reply merely to prevent your deleting you assertion that extrapolation is not frowned upon in the survey research industry.

Where are you seeing that?  Is the poll out?  I thought the extrapolation was 43-41.

Ah, Alcon, I don't quite know how to tell you this (you do seem to have trouble understanding basic concepts), but, extrapolating on survey results is stongly frowned upon in the survey research industry.

Extrapolating cross-tabs from the same survey, however, is not frowned upon.  I just managed to forget about the Undecided sample, which evidently broke for McCain

[Grad Students are the Worst]

It's not extrapolation; I was using the wrong phrase.  It's using sub-samples to calculate other samples.

CARL, this is essentially what I did.  Here's an example:

Male (51%): Obama 51%, McCain 48%
Female (49%): Obama 54%, McCain 45%

Now, 51% of the sample is male and 49% is female.

Thus, the Obama sample is (0.51*0.51)+(0.49*0.54) = 0.5247 = 52% Obama

And the McCain sample is (0.51*0.48)+(0.49*0.45) = 47% McCain

I realize this introduces some rounding error, but when the sub-sample is from the same poll, it does give you a very close approximation of the results -- unless you screw up the math by forgetting Undecideds, which I did.  This should work in any instance where you have samples that constitute the entirety of the poll, and then results for what you're trying to determine for those samples.

You can feel free to tell me where I'm wrong on the math, but I do not believe I am.    And I haven't ever deleted a post and claimed I didn't make it, so you're really just archiving your inability to use the QUOTE tag.