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Author Topic: Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]  (Read 266956 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #200 on: July 15, 2008, 08:59:36 am »
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Tuesday - July 15, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 45% (-1)

Obama - 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (+1, nc)
McCain - 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (-1, +2)

Later today, Rasmussen Reports will release additional Senate polls, issues polls, and some hypothetical Presidential match-ups including how Hillary Clinton might do against John McCain and how George W. Bush would fare against Barack Obama.
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« Reply #201 on: July 15, 2008, 09:17:06 am »
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How many days in their tracking poll?
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« Reply #202 on: July 15, 2008, 09:17:39 am »
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How many days in their tracking poll?

three.
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« Reply #203 on: July 15, 2008, 09:21:03 am »
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Later today, Rasmussen Reports will release additional Senate polls, issues polls, and some hypothetical Presidential match-ups including how Hillary Clinton might do against John McCain and how George W. Bush would fare against Barack Obama.

Is there any need? Issues polls. ANWR perhaps? Cue McCain, 1, 2, 3, flip Tongue

Dave
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« Reply #204 on: July 15, 2008, 09:25:12 am »
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Later today, Rasmussen Reports will release additional Senate polls, issues polls, and some hypothetical Presidential match-ups including how Hillary Clinton might do against John McCain and how George W. Bush would fare against Barack Obama.

Is there any need? Issues polls. ANWR perhaps? Cue McCain, 1, 2, 3, flip Tongue

Dave

Of course Rasmussen will show Hillary Clinton beating MCcain by 20 in Pennsylvania, 15 in Ohio and 10 in Florida ...

I´m really looking forward to these Bush vs. Obama polls. Did they poll Utah ? Or one of the states released yesterday ... ?
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« Reply #205 on: July 15, 2008, 09:48:39 am »
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Later today, Rasmussen Reports will release additional Senate polls, issues polls, and some hypothetical Presidential match-ups including how Hillary Clinton might do against John McCain and how George W. Bush would fare against Barack Obama.

Is there any need? Issues polls. ANWR perhaps? Cue McCain, 1, 2, 3, flip Tongue

Dave

Of course Rasmussen will show Hillary Clinton beating MCcain by 20 in Pennsylvania, 15 in Ohio and 10 in Florida ...

My concern is that the hypothetical Clinton vs McCain match-ups could be a distraction Sad moving forward through the summer

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I´m really looking forward to these Bush vs. Obama polls. Did they poll Utah ? Or one of the states released yesterday ... ?

Now those may be fun Smiley

Dave
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« Reply #206 on: July 16, 2008, 08:33:40 am »
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Wednesday - July 16, 2008:

Obama - 48% (+1)
McCain - 45% (nc)

Later today, Rasmussen Reports will release statewide polling data for the Presidential and Senate races in Oregon and Kansas.

Currently, McCain leads by a 60% to 26% margin among Evangelical Christians and holds a very slight edge over Obama among other Protestant voters and Catholic voters.

Obama holds a thirty-five point advantage among all other voters. Most voters who attend Church at least weekly support McCain and most who rarely or never attend services prefer Obama.

Both candidates are viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide. McCain is viewed favorably by 71% of Evangelical Christians, 59% of other Protestant voters, and 64% of Catholic voters. Obama earns favorable reviews from 39% of Evangelical Christians, 53% of other Protestant voters, and 51% of Catholic voters. Among all other voters, Obama is viewed favorably by 67%, McCain by 38%.
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« Reply #207 on: July 17, 2008, 08:39:30 am »
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Thursday - July 17, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-2)
McCain - 46% (+1)

Favorable Ratings:

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)

At noon Eastern today, Rasmussen Reports will release new polling data on the Presidential race in North Carolina. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released on the race in Nevada and Arkansas. A North Carolina Senate update will be released at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.
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« Reply #208 on: July 17, 2008, 08:59:00 am »
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Looks like Obama has piled up his national lead in the blue states of California, NY, Illinois, Minn, Washington, and Connecticut if the state polls are to be believed.  McCain must be leading somewhere.
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« Reply #209 on: July 17, 2008, 09:28:29 am »
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Looks like Obama has piled up his national lead in the blue states of California, NY, Illinois, Minn, Washington, and Connecticut if the state polls are to be believed.  McCain must be leading somewhere.

The safely Republican states, perhaps?  Smiley
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« Reply #210 on: July 17, 2008, 09:38:58 am »
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Looks like Obama has piled up his national lead in the blue states of California, NY, Illinois, Minn, Washington, and Connecticut if the state polls are to be believed.  McCain must be leading somewhere.
most likely in Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Wyoming, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, etc...
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« Reply #211 on: July 17, 2008, 10:41:43 am »
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Yes. That may well be what is happening. Obama consolidating his position in many blue states with McCain, doing likewise, in many red states. If this pattern holds, the purple battleground is likely to narrow, which means a result on par with 2000 or 2004, either way, is plausible

Lets see what NC shows later today. I expect McCain to be ahead by 4 or 5, as well as him maintaining the advantage in NV and being comfortably ahead in AR

Dave
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« Reply #212 on: July 17, 2008, 11:27:02 am »
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No way.  Didn't you get the memo?  Georgia and Indiana are toss ups.
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« Reply #213 on: July 17, 2008, 11:31:22 am »
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I think this election is looking more like the last two.
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« Reply #214 on: July 17, 2008, 01:05:49 pm »
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No way.  Didn't you get the memo?  Georgia and Indiana are toss ups.

I said many red states, not every red state

Dave
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« Reply #215 on: July 17, 2008, 03:23:06 pm »
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I just read in USA Today this morning that Obama expects to have a shot in South Carolina and Georgia - "and that they are looking at Tennessee and Alabama".

If this is all true, and the blue states are the blowouts that the polls are telling us they are, that begs the question - how is McCain tied or within the margin of error in the national tracking numbers in both Gallup and Rasmussen?  Especially when you throw in the supposed closeness of Indiana, Montana, the Dakotas and Obama double digit leads in purple states like Iowa and Wisconsin.  Add in a healthy Quinnipiac lead for Obama in the populous state of Florida.

I'm just saying it doesn't add up.  Someone help me here.

Is McCain up 30 in Texas?  Nope.  I'm hearing just 7 or 8 according to Rasmussen and not the 23 Bush beat Kerry by.
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« Reply #216 on: July 17, 2008, 03:40:34 pm »
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I just read in USA Today this morning that Obama expects to have a shot in South Carolina and Georgia - "and that they are looking at Tennessee and Alabama".

Obama's blowing smoke.  No way he actually offers serious competition in Tennessee and Alabama.
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« Reply #217 on: July 17, 2008, 03:50:57 pm »
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I just read in USA Today this morning that Obama expects to have a shot in South Carolina and Georgia - "and that they are looking at Tennessee and Alabama".

Obama's blowing smoke.  No way he actually offers serious competition in Tennessee and Alabama.

"It doesn't cost anything to look."
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« Reply #218 on: July 17, 2008, 03:57:41 pm »
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I just read in USA Today this morning that Obama expects to have a shot in South Carolina and Georgia - "and that they are looking at Tennessee and Alabama".

If this is all true, and the blue states are the blowouts that the polls are telling us they are, that begs the question - how is McCain tied or within the margin of error in the national tracking numbers in both Gallup and Rasmussen?  Especially when you throw in the supposed closeness of Indiana, Montana, the Dakotas and Obama double digit leads in purple states like Iowa and Wisconsin.  Add in a healthy Quinnipiac lead for Obama in the populous state of Florida.

I'm just saying it doesn't add up.  Someone help me here.

Is McCain up 30 in Texas?  Nope.  I'm hearing just 7 or 8 according to Rasmussen and not the 23 Bush beat Kerry by.

you are correct.  It is impossible that every poll conducted this election season is ultimately the exact margin that will occur in the fall.

It is also impossible that all of the polls most favorable to obama can be true in the states, while the tracking polls are also accurate.

Most likely the answers vary from maybe obama's up more than the tracking polls say to maybe some of the red states aren't as close as they are currently polling to maybe some of the swing states are still close even though polls show obama winning handily to some of the blue states obama will likely carry are closer than they are polling or closer than they were last time around... or some combination of the above. 

Maybe a reasonable exercise would be to calculate margins in all 50 states with projected turnout and see where that leads in terms of national vote generally.  I personally don't have the wherewithall or time to do it.  Maybe you could try it yourself.
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« Reply #219 on: July 17, 2008, 10:07:26 pm »
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I guess I want Rasmussen's state polls to be at least somewhat reflective of his national number.  It aint currently happening.  Might be impossible with the whacky summer polling.
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« Reply #220 on: July 18, 2008, 01:54:18 am »
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I just read in USA Today this morning that Obama expects to have a shot in South Carolina and Georgia - "and that they are looking at Tennessee and Alabama".

If this is all true, and the blue states are the blowouts that the polls are telling us they are, that begs the question - how is McCain tied or within the margin of error in the national tracking numbers in both Gallup and Rasmussen?  Especially when you throw in the supposed closeness of Indiana, Montana, the Dakotas and Obama double digit leads in purple states like Iowa and Wisconsin.  Add in a healthy Quinnipiac lead for Obama in the populous state of Florida.

I'm just saying it doesn't add up.  Someone help me here.

Is McCain up 30 in Texas?  Nope.  I'm hearing just 7 or 8 according to Rasmussen and not the 23 Bush beat Kerry by.

you are correct.  It is impossible that every poll conducted this election season is ultimately the exact margin that will occur in the fall.

It is also impossible that all of the polls most favorable to obama can be true in the states, while the tracking polls are also accurate.

Most likely the answers vary from maybe obama's up more than the tracking polls say to maybe some of the red states aren't as close as they are currently polling to maybe some of the swing states are still close even though polls show obama winning handily to some of the blue states obama will likely carry are closer than they are polling or closer than they were last time around... or some combination of the above. 

Maybe a reasonable exercise would be to calculate margins in all 50 states with projected turnout and see where that leads in terms of national vote generally.  I personally don't have the wherewithall or time to do it.  Maybe you could try it yourself.

I've been doing that for a month. The numbers add up perfectly. Or at least they did till the tracking polls got close recently.

The state polls currently show Obama ahead by 4.37% nationally. Till recently that was his margin in both Gallup and Rasmussen nationally. It could be that state polls suck and that the swing is so recent that the small number of state polls we have seen since then hasn't been enough to shift the national average yet.
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« Reply #221 on: July 18, 2008, 08:29:52 am »
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Friday - July 18, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 46% (nc)
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« Reply #222 on: July 18, 2008, 08:34:27 am »
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Friday - July 18, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 46% (nc)

There has been much discussion about the potential demographic changes brought about by Obama’s historic candidacy and the fact that he won the nomination by ending Hillary Clinton’s historic candidacy. Rasmussen Reports reviewed data from our July polling and found somewhat surprisingly that Obama’s support looks a lot like John Kerry’s. The only big difference is that Obama is currently doing about five points better against McCain than Kerry did against George W. Bush.

Four years ago, exit polls showed Bush defeating Kerry among white men by a 62% to 37% margin. Today, Obama is doing four points better than that and trails 58% to 37% among white men.

The tale is the same among white women. Bush won that demographic by eleven percentage points, 55% to 44%. Obama is doing five points better and trails by only six, 48% to 42%.

Among non-white females, Obama leads by fifty-four points, up three from Kerry’s margin of fifty-one points. However, Obama lags a bit among non-white males. This year’s presumptive nominee leads by twenty-nine points among that group, down from Kerry’s thirty-seven point margin.
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« Reply #223 on: July 18, 2008, 11:56:33 am »
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Friday - July 18, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 46% (nc)

There has been much discussion about the potential demographic changes brought about by Obama’s historic candidacy and the fact that he won the nomination by ending Hillary Clinton’s historic candidacy. Rasmussen Reports reviewed data from our July polling and found somewhat surprisingly that Obama’s support looks a lot like John Kerry’s. The only big difference is that Obama is currently doing about five points better against McCain than Kerry did against George W. Bush.

Four years ago, exit polls showed Bush defeating Kerry among white men by a 62% to 37% margin. Today, Obama is doing four points better than that and trails 58% to 37% among white men.

The tale is the same among white women. Bush won that demographic by eleven percentage points, 55% to 44%. Obama is doing five points better and trails by only six, 48% to 42%.

Among non-white females, Obama leads by fifty-four points, up three from Kerry’s margin of fifty-one points. However, Obama lags a bit among non-white males. This year’s presumptive nominee leads by twenty-nine points among that group, down from Kerry’s thirty-seven point margin.


So, Obama's lead is small because Minority Men don't support him by the margin they supported Kerry... this seems wrong
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« Reply #224 on: July 18, 2008, 05:25:24 pm »
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Friday - July 18, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 46% (nc)

There has been much discussion about the potential demographic changes brought about by Obama’s historic candidacy and the fact that he won the nomination by ending Hillary Clinton’s historic candidacy. Rasmussen Reports reviewed data from our July polling and found somewhat surprisingly that Obama’s support looks a lot like John Kerry’s. The only big difference is that Obama is currently doing about five points better against McCain than Kerry did against George W. Bush.

Four years ago, exit polls showed Bush defeating Kerry among white men by a 62% to 37% margin. Today, Obama is doing four points better than that and trails 58% to 37% among white men.

The tale is the same among white women. Bush won that demographic by eleven percentage points, 55% to 44%. Obama is doing five points better and trails by only six, 48% to 42%.

Among non-white females, Obama leads by fifty-four points, up three from Kerry’s margin of fifty-one points. However, Obama lags a bit among non-white males. This year’s presumptive nominee leads by twenty-nine points among that group, down from Kerry’s thirty-seven point margin.


Take the number of "non-white males" in the sample, get the square root, multiply that by 0.98, then divide by the total number of "non-white males" in the sample, and you'll get the MoE.

I would estimate that the MoE is probably be at least seven per cent, and perhaps as high a sixteen per cent, depending upon subsample size.

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