Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Secretary Polnut]

Saturday November 1, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (-1)

Thanks be... lol

[I left.]

I believe it's +6, +6, +3 or there abouts.

Which makes the PA poll today even more confusing. PA 2% more Republican than the national average? Really?
Even if McCain somehow miraculously pulls in PA, he still needs to hold all of FL, NC, MO, IN and NV. Somehow I don't see that happening.

CO and VA are gone for him.

I wouldn't try to find a connection between his national and state polls...It's been terrible the last couple of days and weeks.

[Kalimantan]

I believe it's +6, +6, +3 or there abouts.

Which makes the PA poll today even more confusing. PA 2% more Republican than the national average? Really?

If PA is as racist as Phil and others claim it is, then maybe it will come down on the R side of the coin this year. I prefer not to think ill of my fellow countrymen however.

[RJ]

That's in line with the rest of the polls.

I can very easily believe that PA is trending more Republican in this election.

If PA goes for Obama by a greater percentage than the national PV, will you still be singing the same tune??? I can't remember the last time that happened.

[Nym90]

That's in line with the rest of the polls.

I can very easily believe that PA is trending more Republican in this election.

If PA goes for Obama by a greater percentage than the national PV, will you still be singing the same tune??? I can't remember the last time that happened.

The last time that Pennsylvania was more Republican than the nation as a whole was 1948 (going on the basis of margin of victory in PA vs. margin of victory nationally).

Which is actually the longest streak of any state in the nation, believe it or not.

[Reaganfan]

That's in line with the rest of the polls.

I can very easily believe that PA is trending more Republican in this election.

If PA goes for Obama by a greater percentage than the national PV, will you still be singing the same tune??? I can't remember the last time that happened.

The last time that Pennsylvania was more Republican than the nation as a whole was 1948 (going on the basis of margin of victory in PA vs. margin of victory nationally).

Which is actually the longest streak of any state in the nation, believe it or not.

I would love to re-live a 1948. I would have been wild about Harry.

[J. J.]

That's in line with the rest of the polls.

I can very easily believe that PA is trending more Republican in this election.

If PA goes for Obama by a greater percentage than the national PV, will you still be singing the same tune??? I can't remember the last time that happened.

No, but I'm expecting it to be closer.

Some of it is race.

[Nym90]

That's in line with the rest of the polls.

I can very easily believe that PA is trending more Republican in this election.

If PA goes for Obama by a greater percentage than the national PV, will you still be singing the same tune??? I can't remember the last time that happened.

The last time that Pennsylvania was more Republican than the nation as a whole was 1948 (going on the basis of margin of victory in PA vs. margin of victory nationally).

Which is actually the longest streak of any state in the nation, believe it or not.

I would love to re-live a 1948. I would have been wild about Harry.

Glad to see we agree on the guy who vetoed that abomination of a bill co-sponsored by one of your state's most famous senators ever.

[Sarnstrom]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

[Secretary Polnut]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Thank God.

[Speed of Sound]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Thank God.

Well said. *exhales*

[Keystone Phil]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...

[Sam Spade]

Sorry I missed doing this yesterday.

I have no internals today which tell me the breakdown of this one-day sample, but the Halloween sample was a strong one for Obama.  If the numbers were the same as the one that fell off that I guessed at before (October 30 fell off today), then Obama +3.

The 46.50% for McCain today rounds down because it is 46.49986...

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 51%
McCain 46%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	51.42	(51.25	50.86	50.88	50.24)
McCain	46.50	(46.47	46.89	46.21	47.07)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

	Sunday		Saturday		Friday		Thursday		Wednesday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Certain	47.24	42.78	47.49	42.61	47.29	42.76	46.97	42.03	45.53	42.76
Likely	2.77	2.40	2.36	2.49	2.26	2.72	2.60	2.68	3.65	2.29
Lean	1.41	1.32	1.40	1.17	1.30	1.40	1.31	1.50	1.05	2.03

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Sunday		Saturday		Friday		Thursday		Wednesday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	87.67	10.85	89.20	9.31	88.01	10.98	86.29	12.20	85.42	12.92
Republican	11.22	88.15	11.41	88.07	12.39	86.84	11.77	86.44	10.64	87.45
Independent	48.98	46.68	45.35	49.28	44.42	49.92	49.83	44.06	50.38	44.59

[Sam Spade]

Rowan - This is probably the reason why Rasmussen's playing around with the weighting, though he should tell us why:

Targets (this week)
Dem 39.9% (-0.1%)
Rep 33.4% (+0.6%)
Ind 26.7% (-0.5%)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_rasmussen_reports_partisan_weighting_targets_39_9_democrat_33_4_republican

[Lief]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...

McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

[I left.]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...

McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

if you just look at today's sample...it's more like 1.5 per day....

still tough...but I don't really like it.

[Keystone Phil]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...

McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

Oh, thanks for the encouragement!

[J. J.]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...

McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

if you just look at today's sample...it's more like 1.5 per day....

still tough...but I don't really like it.

Or you have a 4 point Bradley.

[Verily]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...

McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

if you just look at today's sample...it's more like 1.5 per day....

still tough...but I don't really like it.

Or you have a 4 point Bradley.

The remaining superdelegates will split 3-1 for Clinton, too.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...

McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

if you just look at today's sample...it's more like 1.5 per day....

still tough...but I don't really like it.

Or you have a 4 point Bradley.

The remaining superdelegates will split 3-1 for Clinton, too.

And Obama was overpolling in NC and would only win by 4. And there was a good chance Clinton's delegates would stage a convention walkout. And the Florida and Michigan Democrat parties would fight tooth and nail to have their delegates fully seated as voted so Obama would just have to grab as much of the uncommitted as he could.

[J. J.]

Sunday November 2, 2008

Obama 51% (nc)
McCain 46% (nc)

Good enough...

McCain has to make up 2.5 points per day in the next two days. Good luck with that one.

if you just look at today's sample...it's more like 1.5 per day....

still tough...but I don't really like it.

Or you have a 4 point Bradley.

The remaining superdelegates will split 3-1 for Clinton, too.

And Obama was overpolling in NC and would only win by 4. And there was a good chance Clinton's delegates would stage a convention walkout. And the Florida and Michigan Democrat parties would fight tooth and nail to have their delegates fully seated as voted so Obama would just have to grab as much of the uncommitted as he could.

Are you saying that NC will go Obama?

[ucscgaldamez]

Rasmussen, Obama leads by 6.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Obama 52% (+1)
McCain 46% (nc)

[Tender Branson]

[Sam Spade]

Rasmussen, Obama leads by 6.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Obama 52% (+1)
McCain 46% (nc)

When the numbers get posted, I'll post.  But based on the one internal, it looks like a fairly strong Obama day.

[Secretary Polnut]

Very very very nice to see.