Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

It will probably take 3-4 days for any "rally effect," June 15-16 should be the most telling.

[J. J.]

I'm interested in the "rally effect," if any.  There may not be a bump, or a minor one, due to disaffected Clinton voters.

[J. J.]

The end campaign boost.  We'll see what it's like om 6/15.

[J. J.]

If you agree, then what are you complaining about?

No-one's advocating meeting Bin Laden, the argument is over to meet with people like Adjeminihad etc.

See, but I put Adjeminihad in the same category as Osama.

Which is particularly amusing given that Ahmadinejad doesn't really even have any power within Iran.

That's the one thing he and Osama Bin Laden have in common!

Both opposed to the existence of Israel; both support terrorist organizations.  You did ask.

[J. J.]

I think in a week, we'll be characterizing the race as "close, with a lot of undecideds." 

[J. J.]

There was one, and there still might be some left.  It wasn't huge and it wasn't long lasting. 

It might take the rest of the week for it to shake out.

[J. J.]

My guess is a 3-4 point race.

[J. J.]

McCain might be doing better midweek and Obama on the weekends.  We shouldn't be getting too exicted yet.

[J. J.]

McCain might be doing better midweek and Obama on the weekends.  We shouldn't be getting too exicted yet.

Gallup might tell us something too. both have tightened, but the causes could be anything.

Gallup says Obama +6... School's out for summer!

My guess is a 4-6 point national lead for Obama.

[J. J.]

Saturday - July 12, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 46% (+1)

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+2, -2)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Too bad, Gallup will show him ahead by 9 today ...

My guess is that it won't be; I would be too surprised to see the Gallup gap close.

[J. J.]

Saturday - July 12, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 46% (+1)

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+2, -2)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Too bad, Gallup will show him ahead by 9 today ...

My guess is that it won't be; I would be too surprised to see the Gallup gap close.

After a three-point jump in Obama's lead yesterday, there's no way Obama's lead declines more than a point today (given the way tracking polls work), which still doesn't tell us anything.

My guess was correct; Gallup shows it a 4 points.  It might be a weekend thing, however.

[J. J.]

Probably no more than 4 points, at most, but we'll have a better idea by midweek.  Obama has tended to do better over weekends, so this a bit troubling for him.

Edit:  Let me clarify.  He's done a bit better in Gallup on weekends.

[J. J.]

I think this election is looking more like the last two.

[J. J.]

Looks like we have stabilized to a tie.

I would certainly say close.

[J. J.]

Looks like we have stabilized to a tie.

more like Obama up 1-2% or so, a drop of 2-3% from where the race appeared to be previously.

0-3 points is my guess; in Gallup, there seems to be a weekend upswing for Obama, which should be out by Wednesday.

[J. J.]

I wouldn't even say "implode."  5-7 points isn't a lot and Obama has had a lot of good press this week.

[J. J.]

What´s even more interesting: I don´t get how Obama is ahead by only 1% overall, if he´s getting 44% of the white vote, to McCain's 50%. Kerry got 41%, Bush 59%. Obama's getting higher shares among African-Americans and Hispanics. Is Rasmussen's sample 90% White ? Because on Election Day it will be 73-75% ...

Scott Rasmussen is cooking up the numbers so he can make his weekly appearance on the Sean Hannity show to flaunt off his numbers to Hannity's base.

Only in Bizarro World where Kerry won and Mypalfish is Secretary of State.

[J. J.]

Wednesday - July 30, 2008

Obama: 48% (+1)
McCain: 46% (nc)

Favorable Ratings

Obama: 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, nc)
McCain: 55% favorable, 42% unfavorable (+1, -2)

At 3:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for key Senate races in Nebraska and Mississippi.

At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new data will be released for the Presidential race in Nebraska and Mississippi.

Probably still within that 0-3 point range, which is a surprise (to me at least).

[J. J.]

1.  Do we have today's numbers?

2.  Is it possible to sticky the tracking polls?

[J. J.]

July 31

McCain 43%
   
Obama 45%
   
With Leaners:

McCain 46%

Obama 48%

No change.

[J. J.]

A very close race, with perhaps a slight long term erosion for Obama.

[J. J.]

Better for Obama wage a civil and dignified campaign, and lose, than stoop to McCain's level in a vain effort to win

Dave

Translated from official DNC speak to something normal - "Ugh, why isn't Obama up by more than two...er...make that one point?"

The sentiments I express are mine Phil, not those of the DNC

Dave

Actually, they could the motto any loosing candidate.

This campaign is far from over, but right now, Obama, who had great press last week, is slipping in the polls.  The more people see him, the less they like him.

[J. J.]

This campaign is far from over, but right now, Obama, who had great press last week, is slipping in the polls.  The more people see him, the less they like him

Digusting when you consider the civility and dignity the man exudes even when the going gets tough. There's McCain conducting a negative personal attack, attack, attack campaign breaking his own promise to run a civil campaign. If any one deserves to be disliked it's McCain. I expected better from him considering the smears that were peddled against him in 2000

A word of advice for John McCain though. What goes around comes around and if he can't take it then he shouldn't dish it out

Anyway I've made perfectly clear my opinion on this matter

Dave

Oh, McCain has.  This is experience versus Obama.

[J. J.]

Probably a close race, Obama erosion, and I'd probably give the edge to to McCain, for today at least.

[J. J.]

Probably a close race, Obama erosion, and I'd probably give the edge to to McCain, for today at least.

Gallup disagrees

Ah, actually, no.  Weekend bounce, which wasn't as strong as it has been.