Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Wiz in Wis]

July 8, 2008:

Obama - 49% (nc)
McCain - 43% (-1)

Obama - 57% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain - 53% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)

In other news:

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has done a far more effective job than Republican John McCain in recent weeks moving himself to the middle in the minds of voters, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveys.

During the Primary campaign season, Obama was viewed as politically liberal by an ever-increasing number of voters that grew to 67% by early June. However, since clinching the nomination, he has reversed that trend and is now seen as liberal by only 56%.

Twenty-two percent (22%) characterize the Democrat as Very Liberal, down from 36% early last month.

McCain similarly has been seen as politically conservative by more and more voters, also hitting 67% a month ago, but he is still viewed that way by 66%. While19% saw him as Very Conservative in early June, that figure now has risen to 28%.

The Democratic candidate is viewed as a political moderate by 27%, up from 22% three weeks earlier, while McCain is seen as a moderate by 23%, down from 26% in the survey at the beginning of June.

The black senator who hates whitey is more moderate than captain Maverick!  Thats unpossible!!!

[Wiz in Wis]

McCain might be doing better midweek and Obama on the weekends.  We shouldn't be getting too exicted yet.

Gallup might tell us something too. both have tightened, but the causes could be anything.

[Wiz in Wis]

McCain might be doing better midweek and Obama on the weekends.  We shouldn't be getting too exicted yet.

Gallup might tell us something too. both have tightened, but the causes could be anything.

Gallup says Obama +6... School's out for summer!

[Wiz in Wis]

Friday - July 18, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 46% (nc)

There has been much discussion about the potential demographic changes brought about by Obama’s historic candidacy and the fact that he won the nomination by ending Hillary Clinton’s historic candidacy. Rasmussen Reports reviewed data from our July polling and found somewhat surprisingly that Obama’s support looks a lot like John Kerry’s. The only big difference is that Obama is currently doing about five points better against McCain than Kerry did against George W. Bush.

Four years ago, exit polls showed Bush defeating Kerry among white men by a 62% to 37% margin. Today, Obama is doing four points better than that and trails 58% to 37% among white men.

The tale is the same among white women. Bush won that demographic by eleven percentage points, 55% to 44%. Obama is doing five points better and trails by only six, 48% to 42%.

Among non-white females, Obama leads by fifty-four points, up three from Kerry’s margin of fifty-one points. However, Obama lags a bit among non-white males. This year’s presumptive nominee leads by twenty-nine points among that group, down from Kerry’s thirty-seven point margin.

So, Obama's lead is small because Minority Men don't support him by the margin they supported Kerry... this seems wrong

[Wiz in Wis]

Maybe the beginnings of a slight bounce from the Middle East/Europe trip?

Well, according to Rasmussen:

In last night’s polling, 50% had already seen coverage of Obama’s Berlin speech. Initial reactions to the speech will be reported at 10:30 a.m. Eastern today.

Dave

Well, it look like people liked it by the polls, but Rasy is funny and may show people hated it so they can get on Fox News again.

Over half of Americans (55%) rate Barack Obama’s historic speech in Berlin yesterday good or excellent, and the Democratic presidential candidate is experiencing a modest bounce over John McCain nationally in the latest Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In a new Rassmussen Reports national survey, 26% grade the speech, delivered before an enthusiastic crowd of more than 200,000, as Excellent. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say it was good. Nearly as many (23%) feel it was only Fair, and 18% rate it as Poor. These results are based upon the 50% of voters who had heard or seen coverage of the speech last night.

Even nearly a third of Republicans (32%) give the speech good or excellent marks, but Democrats are far more enthusiastic, with 75% feeling that way. However, 39% of Republicans rate the speech Poor versus only five percent (5%) of Democrats. Forty-seven percent (47%) of unaffiliated voters say the speech was good or excellent, while 16% characterize it as Poor.

[Wiz in Wis]

Gallup at +6... seems like a bounce to me

[Wiz in Wis]

Saturday - July 26, 2008

Obama: 49% (nc)
McCain: 43% (-1)

Favorability Ratings

Obama: 57% (+1)
McCain: 55% (nc)

With gallup at + 7, and some fairly good state numbers for Obama (- Q poll) we can assume he is back to his June lead for now.

[Wiz in Wis]

Friday - July 18, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 46% (nc)

There has been much discussion about the potential demographic changes brought about by Obama’s historic candidacy and the fact that he won the nomination by ending Hillary Clinton’s historic candidacy. Rasmussen Reports reviewed data from our July polling and found somewhat surprisingly that Obama’s support looks a lot like John Kerry’s. The only big difference is that Obama is currently doing about five points better against McCain than Kerry did against George W. Bush.

Four years ago, exit polls showed Bush defeating Kerry among white men by a 62% to 37% margin. Today, Obama is doing four points better than that and trails 58% to 37% among white men.

The tale is the same among white women. Bush won that demographic by eleven percentage points, 55% to 44%. Obama is doing five points better and trails by only six, 48% to 42%.

Among non-white females, Obama leads by fifty-four points, up three from Kerry’s margin of fifty-one points. However, Obama lags a bit among non-white males. This year’s presumptive nominee leads by twenty-nine points among that group, down from Kerry’s thirty-seven point margin.

So, Obama's lead is small because Minority Men don't support him by the margin they supported Kerry... this seems wrong

Rasmussen has had a problem in this department for some time now

[Wiz in Wis]

Probably a close race, Obama erosion, and I'd probably give the edge to to McCain, for today at least.

Gallup disagrees

[Wiz in Wis]

Biden was not that unknown. 

I didn't say he was unknown. He has some low name recognition as a long-running Democratic senator who is well known in media circles but doesn't register with ordinary people. My point was, the VP has value for both the initial statement (think a hypothetical Colin Powell, John Edwards, Jack Kemp) and how they perform down the road (Al Gore, Dick Cheney in the debates, Lyndon Johnson).

Biden is potentially much stronger than pretty much any other possibility in the debates, in his convention speech, and out on the stump. Is it necessarily the case? No. However, while you're welcome to start celebrating now, it's not "obvious" that Biden was a dud pick based on his failure to move tracking polls right away. He was chosen for his abilities, not his name wow-factor. When people say that Biden will help the ticket connect with working-class voters (a dubious claim, but let's go with it) it wasn't because working-class people have posters of Biden on their walls and were thrilled when he was picked. He needs to be introduced to them, and then we'll see if he resonates or makes a difference.

Of course McCain taking the lead in tracking polls is bad news for Obama. You and I disagree about what that means, and how permanent that is.

Two things...

One, the initial rollout of Biden was on a Saturday... not many people were watching, and those that were included a lot of people upset that Hillary! didn't get the nod. I think a shorterm backlash should have been forseen, but then, Biden wasn't brought in to win the thing overnight. His role is tonights speech, on the stump, and in the debate.

Second, While the tracking polls have turned away from Obama, where does McCain grow? How many democrats are going to watch the speeches by Biden and Obama and refuse to come home? That number, I suspect, is going to be small, and is inflated by Hillary!'s moment in the spotlight now.

Remember, the post endorsement bounce from the end of the primaries was strongest almost two weeks after Hillary conceeded.

[Wiz in Wis]

Up and then down.

Likely, I will admit. However, Obama is more likely to add 6+ points to his margin than McCain is to earn it all back...

Especially if Gustav is splitscreening half the convention

[Wiz in Wis]

Damn, I was going to post that!  It's either the Palin *bump* or polling on Labor Day phenomenon.  Your choose.  

Gustav?

[Wiz in Wis]

Considering that this is both the labor day sample rolling out and Palin's speech rolling in, I'm actually not too displeased.

As JJ says, we'll know what really happened on Monday

[Wiz in Wis]

Saturday- September 27, 2008
Obama 50%
McCain 44%

McCain hasn't scored as low as a 44 since July 25!

[Wiz in Wis]

Yes, but it doesn't matter.

The lead was suppose to shrink, and it grew. Things will start to get really bad for everyone, all because people want to finally defeat Bush. Since they cannot defeat him, they chose to pretend someone else is him. Now, we are going to end up with the left-wing version of George Bush.

Left-wing version of Bush?  Are you kidding?  How is Obama in any way, shape, or form like Pres. Bush? 

Barack Obama has written two books, George W Bush has read two books...

DUH!

[Wiz in Wis]

Observationally, the movement over the past few days is rather interesting. 

Obama's gains (which are not as large as the McCain drops) have to do with movement of Indys in his favor and a slight movement towards him among GOPers.

McCain's losses, while having to do with Indy movement, also have to do with GOPers moving into the undecided column.

Democrats have basically not moved at all.

For example, even though Obama clearly won the night by 11-12 points, the number that dropped off (Obama +10%) had a greater raw Obama score than the number that went on the sample (by around 0.5%).

Tells me that McCain's move on Wednesday was not well-received with swing voters or his base.  So I was wrong in interpretation there.

It may also be that republicans, since they are for small government, are bailing on a McCain who seems to be going along with Bush and the bailout... just a guess though

[Wiz in Wis]

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 45% (nc)

sweet

[Wiz in Wis]

Black vote in Rasmussen polls:
MS: Obama 98%-McCain 2%
TN: Obama 98%-McCain 2%

Disgusting....

If you were a voter of X descent and A party embraced the X group while the B party has people who have prejudices against you, how would you vote?

Oh thats right, Republicans are racist. I forgot. My bad.

So, choose between the first African American for president or a man who thought MLK Jr wasn't worth of a holiday... pretty easy choice there.

[Wiz in Wis]

Rasmussen changed his party ID weighting today to more favor the Republicans.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/partisan_trends

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Which resulted in Obama +1... what?!

[Wiz in Wis]

Tuesday - October 7, 2008:

Obama - 52% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This is the second straight day that Obama has led by eight percentage points, his largest lead of the year. For the past twelve days, Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45% every day (see trends).

Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of voters, McCain by 52% (see trends). Obama is viewed Very Favorably by 39% of voters and Very Unfavorably by 28%. For McCain, those numbers are 24% Very Favorable and 26% Very Unfavorable. The two Presidential candidates will debate tonight in Nashville, Tennessee using a town hall format.

[Wiz in Wis]

Call me when the RCP composite falls under 5... really, one point... in Rasmussen. Irrational exuberance.

[Wiz in Wis]

Why can't you be objective for 2 seconds?

You do realize no matter who wins, you still don't look good?

I just told you they were left-wing, and they their independents chose McCain.

Objective... you picked the lone bright spot for McCain out of what, 4 instapolls and 3 focus groups, all the rest of which went Obama, in defense of a 1 point swing, in Rasmussen, to McCain... Dkos, IBD/Tipp, and Diageo/Hotline were flat, Zogby showed Obama gaining 1, and GW, which was the only poll to show McCain ahead in October, still shows an Obama lead of 6. By your logic, I should note that Frank Luntz's focus group went Obama, therefore, your arguement is at least met with a strong counterpoint.

Also, to the guy who said debates dont matter... then why else has Obama picked up an average 1-2 point gain after every one? even the VP?