Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

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That's a very sudden shift in their favorability numbers (for both candidates). Odd.

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That's a very sudden shift in their favorability numbers (for both candidates). Odd.

My thoughts exactly. Very odd. Interesting that Obama seems to be doing so poorly with Hispanics. The white number, on the other hand, isn't so bad for a Democrat is it?

If Kerry had those breakdowns in 2004, he would have won Ohio and the election (assuming a uniform swing of demographics), as well as possibly other states. Kerry did lose whites by IIRC eighteen points in 2004. Bear in mind of course that the sample sizes for blacks and Hispanics both are quite small, only a couple hundred at most.

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We could make the simple counterargument that, if Republicans truly do lose fourteen points between June and November, Obama is safely President already. Obviously this isn't the case, but then it is also the case that Bush's numbers in 2000 have no relevancy at all to today. Those numbers mean nothing other than that things change. (And, given that Bush had won the nomination by early March if not before, the point is moot anyway.)

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Copying Dave's reporting style...


Friday June 6, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (+2, +1)
McCain: 40% / 43%, including leaners (-1, -2)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favourable; 42% unfavorable (+1, -1)
McCain: 55% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-, +1)

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If you agree, then what are you complaining about?

No-one's advocating meeting Bin Laden, the argument is over to meet with people like Adjeminihad etc.

See, but I put Adjeminihad in the same category as Osama.

Which is particularly amusing given that Ahmadinejad doesn't really even have any power within Iran.

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Sunday June 15, 2008

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (-1, nc)
McCain: 39% / 43%, including leaners (-1, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable; 43% unfavorable (-1, -1)
McCain: 52% favorable; 45% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of women and 50% of men. McCain earns favorable reviews from 54% of men and 50% of women.

Among voters under 30, 62% have a favorable opinion of Obama. Those ratings decline steadily by age—just 49% of seniors (65+) have a favorable opinion of the Democratic candidate. McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of seniors, his highest rating from any age group. His weakest reviews come from 30-somethings. Among these young adults, 49% have a favorable opinion of the Republican standard bearer.

Few surprises are seen on a partisan basis. Obama is viewed favorably by 82% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans. McCain is viewed favorably by 81% of Republicans and 29% of Democrats. For all the talk of post-partisanship, the campaign is shaping up so far along fiercely partisan lines. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, McCain is viewed favorably by 55%, Obama by 51%. 


People are apparently becoming less decided as time goes on. Or maybe weekend respondents are generally less decisive?

[Verily]

Saturday - July 12, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 46% (+1)

McCain - 56% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+2, -2)
Obama - 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, nc)

Too bad, Gallup will show him ahead by 9 today ...

My guess is that it won't be; I would be too surprised to see the Gallup gap close.

After a three-point jump in Obama's lead yesterday, there's no way Obama's lead declines more than a point today (given the way tracking polls work), which still doesn't tell us anything.

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Thursday - July 24, 2008

Obama: 48% (+1)
McCain: 45% (nc)

Favorable Ratings

Obama: 55% favorable (+1)
McCain: 54% favorable (-2)


They seem to have dropped reporting unfavorability, or at least I can't find it.

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Friday - July 25, 2008

Obama: 49% (+1)
McCain: 44% (-1)

Favorability Ratings

Obama: 56% (+1)
McCain: 55% (+1)

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Saturday - July 26, 2008

Obama: 49% (nc)
McCain: 43% (-1)

Favorability Ratings

Obama: 57% (+1)
McCain: 55% (nc)

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Sunday - July 27, 2008

Obama: 49% (nc)
McCain: 44% (+1)

Favorability Ratings

Obama: 56% (-1)
McCain: 55% (nc)

[Verily]

So, you called and found out what leaner method they're using?  What is it? 

They're actually redistributing all of Barr's support to Obama and McCain in a massive conspiracy to elect a pro-amnesty President.

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This isn't a good sign for McCain, in 2004 this is when Bush moved ahead of Kerry.

Bush moved ahead after the Republican Convention for good, but they still seesawed back and forth until election day. Kerry lead pretty consistently until the RNC. I think Bush lead 55-41 immediately after the RNC concluded.

Also, good to see some numbers from Nevada and VA coming from Rasmussen.

Not in Rasmussen's tracking poll. Bush took the lead on August 12 and never looked back.

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So, he was tied in Gallup and one ahead in Rassy. He is now +8 and +4. That's an average of 5.5. I guess that's better than Kerry's. McCain will have to have a 6 point bump to stay in this.

Would have been greater if not for Palin, maybe +10 and +6. Of course, that's just speculation, but the final day sample is definitely "polluted".

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So, he was tied in Gallup and one ahead in Rassy. He is now +8 and +4. That's an average of 5.5. I guess that's better than Kerry's. McCain will have to have a 6 point bump to stay in this.

Would have been greater if not for Palin, maybe +10 and +6. Of course, that's just speculation, but the final day sample is definitely "polluted".

We need to wait until Monday or Tuesday.

Umm, no, we don't. We already know what happened.

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Damn, I was going to post that!  It's either the Palin *bump* or polling on Labor Day phenomenon.  Your choose.  

Probably a combination. If it were just Labor Day, it would have shown up in the weekend polling data, too. (People don't go on vacation for Labor Day, they go on vacation for the whole weekend.)

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I got their site, but they have the new tracking up for premium members only. Lame.

To MODU: That would be a reasonable number. Remember, today is not only factoring in Palin's speech, it's also factoring out Labor Day. Of course, I doubt McCain's favorability changes much as a result of Palin's speech.

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RCP does it with leaners, so that's -2/+1. Not bad, honestly.

I got their site, but they have the new tracking up for premium members only. Lame.

To MODU: That would be a reasonable number. Remember, today is not only factoring in Palin's speech, it's also factoring out Labor Day. Of course, I doubt McCain's favorability changes much as a result of Palin's speech.

I honestly think you'll see a bigger Labor Day effect in Gallup.  Rasmussen doesn't have a weekend Obama bounce, or a midweek McCain bounce.

I guess this was just kind of arbitrary:

Tuesday - September 02, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 48% / 51%, including leaners (+1, +2)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (-1, -1)

[Verily]

That's with leaners.  If accurate, that means yesterday's sample was somewhere around a push.

What is a push when you are talking about polling?

He means it was a tie.

[Verily]

Well, it's heartening that the one-day samples continue to show Obama ahead, even after the RNC. Tomorrow and the next few days are important to watch, of course, but it's good news so far.

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If McCain can't get ahead of Obama through the RNC, which should hypothetically be the high point of a candidate's campaign, then I just don't see him winning, short of something majorly changing the dynamics of the race (which is pretty much out of McCain's control).

Rasmussen hasn't even polled the race ahead of the Palin speech yet.  Hold your horses.

Yes they have: today and yesterday's releases.

Quote from Rasmussen: "Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech."

Yes, but two of the three data points from today are from after Palin's speech. Because we know the average numbers for every three-day set, we can extrapolate what the results from any given night were. Obama led by a point or two in the data from both Thursday and yesterday, Thursday including Palin's speech and yesterday including both Palin's and McCain's speeches.

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What does that make Sunday's sample?

Thursday was estimated at O+3.8, so this is probably something like O+2 today (with a tie on Friday and M+4 or so yesterday).

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I guess one might assume that Obama may well have had the lead in last night's individual polling numbers?

Yes. if the trends are any indication, the numbers for the last three nights were M+5, O+2, O+3 (four days ago was a tie), or something along those lines. So expect Obama to be in the lead by a point or two tomorrow (but no guarantees, they do sometimes have odd one-day movements).

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Last five days:

              M+3        O+8      O+12      M+1       O+6      O+10   
Obama 50.44% (50.43%/49.81%/49.95%/49.47%/49.40%)
McCain 45.05% (44.35%/44.37%/45.16%/45.96%/46.56%)

Sample today is *roughly* McCain +2.07.  Rowan may come in and correct me later on this number.

EDIT:  My sleepiness makes it not McCain +2.07%, but rather McCain +3.22%.  Ugh.

Alcon's model disagrees with you (on both extremes). His makes much more sense, too, because it doesn't have the wild swings.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=84114.0

[Verily]

Looks like Sam Spade's hunch was correct.