Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[ucscgaldamez]

McCain had a good day with independents last night. However, Democrats appear to be holding strong based on the data. However, following the tracking polls, the independent numbers are normally the ones that keep changing-- back and forth between the candidates. So we'll see what happens.

[ucscgaldamez]

Yes, I don't know what the Palin effects will be. However, I think there was a lot of media attention. That means higher ratings. It wouldn't surprise me if she had higher ratings than Obama's speech. How that will play out...don't know.

[ucscgaldamez]

The media firestorm created a lot of interest. I know that my folks at home wanted to know who she is, even if they are not even gonna vote for her. After she was done, they were not very impressed. We'll see tomorrow the beginning of a bump, if any.

[ucscgaldamez]

No, they don't break it down. However, you can see the daily numbers (based on the previous 3 day samples). We'll see if Democrats keep holding strong as they are right now, even if McCain is leading modestly among Independents. But like I said, both Gallup and Rasmussen, and other polls, just have independents all over the place. At the end, they may just break even.

Thus, attracting Democrats is crucial for McCain to win. The key for Obama is holding about 85% of Democrats. If he does, then this election is over. The tone of the convention has been really negative.

[ucscgaldamez]

I think that by looking at the data, yesterday it was McCain +1. McCain 48%, Obama 47%. That's just a guess based on the breakdowns. Democrats are holding a bit better than pre-DNC. Independents are all over the place and the numbers will continue to fluctuate. I have seen McCain with double digits before among this group, to only change within a matter of days. It is interesting to note that in some samples, the bigger the sample of independents, the better Obama does. The smaller the sample, the better McCain does.

[ucscgaldamez]

The almost double-digit lead McCain had two days ago among Independents is now gone. They are now even. When Rasmussen had said that a bounce was showing for McCain earlier it was mainly on Independents. But the numbers for them just keep changing. If Obama does well tonight, he will pass McCain among independents for tomorrow's update. McCain tying came about by Democrats reducing their share of support from 85%~ to about 81% now. Before the DNC started he was supported by 79% of Democrats. We'll see if it keeps going down or holds steady. If it goes up, then the limits McCain's gains. This race is essentially where it was before the conventions started.

[ucscgaldamez]

..though it is closer among men than it is among women.

[ucscgaldamez]

I agree with muon (about the swings). I am a subscriber and I get to see the internals and I don't see how it would put McCain +3 for last night. McCain only went up among independents without Obama's percentage moving at all. Not only that, Obama went up among Democrats (even a percentage more of support from the Dems than McCain from the GOP.

[ucscgaldamez]

What about if Obama is able to change the minds of those who are just leaning to McCain?

[ucscgaldamez]

Democratic hawk:

What makes you 100% certain that McCain will win?

I expected this race to tighten at the end. I don't see how anyone can say with 100% certainty that one candidate or the other will win.

Who will win these states?
Nevada
New Mexico
Iowa
Colorado
Pennsylvania?

[ucscgaldamez]

Rasmussen, Obama leads by 6.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Obama 52% (+1)
McCain 46% (nc)