Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[elcorazon]

Looks like Obama has piled up his national lead in the blue states of California, NY, Illinois, Minn, Washington, and Connecticut if the state polls are to be believed.  McCain must be leading somewhere.

most likely in Utah, Idaho, Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Wyoming, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, etc...

[elcorazon]

I just read in USA Today this morning that Obama expects to have a shot in South Carolina and Georgia - "and that they are looking at Tennessee and Alabama".

If this is all true, and the blue states are the blowouts that the polls are telling us they are, that begs the question - how is McCain tied or within the margin of error in the national tracking numbers in both Gallup and Rasmussen?  Especially when you throw in the supposed closeness of Indiana, Montana, the Dakotas and Obama double digit leads in purple states like Iowa and Wisconsin.  Add in a healthy Quinnipiac lead for Obama in the populous state of Florida.

I'm just saying it doesn't add up.  Someone help me here.

Is McCain up 30 in Texas?  Nope.  I'm hearing just 7 or 8 according to Rasmussen and not the 23 Bush beat Kerry by.

you are correct.  It is impossible that every poll conducted this election season is ultimately the exact margin that will occur in the fall.

It is also impossible that all of the polls most favorable to obama can be true in the states, while the tracking polls are also accurate.

Most likely the answers vary from maybe obama's up more than the tracking polls say to maybe some of the red states aren't as close as they are currently polling to maybe some of the swing states are still close even though polls show obama winning handily to some of the blue states obama will likely carry are closer than they are polling or closer than they were last time around... or some combination of the above. 

Maybe a reasonable exercise would be to calculate margins in all 50 states with projected turnout and see where that leads in terms of national vote generally.  I personally don't have the wherewithall or time to do it.  Maybe you could try it yourself.

[elcorazon]

Looks like we have stabilized to a tie.

more like Obama up 1-2% or so, a drop of 2-3% from where the race appeared to be previously.

[elcorazon]

Better for Obama wage a civil and dignified campaign, and lose, than stoop to McCain's level in a vain effort to win

Dave

Translated from official DNC speak to something normal - "Ugh, why isn't Obama up by more than two...er...make that one point?"

The sentiments I express are mine Phil, not those of the DNC

Dave

Actually, they could the motto any loosing candidate.

This campaign is far from over, but right now, Obama, who had great press last week, is slipping in the polls.  The more people see him, the less they like him.

that's a bit of a stretch now, isn't it?  the race has been up and down with obama up from 1-8 pts or so for a couple of months.  from that you infer that the more they see of obama the less they like him.  I suspect you are seeing what you want to see.

Better possibility is the negative ads have been impactful.

[elcorazon]

Sunday - August 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

which is better than yesterday

Somebody is nervous...

The race possibly got tighter; ask me Wednesday or Thursday.

because we can't figure it out for ourselves.  we need J.J. to interpret the polls properly for us.

seems like it's tightened to me, already.

[elcorazon]

Sunday - August 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

which is better than yesterday

Somebody is nervous...

The race possibly got tighter; ask me Wednesday or Thursday.

because we can't figure it out for ourselves.  we need J.J. to interpret the polls properly for us.

seems like it's tightened to me, already.

No, I'm saying, I don't know.  I'm not calling it tightening yet. 

well, rasmussen has had th race within 3 points every single 3 day average for over 3 weeks now.  before that it had shot up to 6 points a few times.  I think the race is now officially tight, if it ever wasn't.

[elcorazon]

I would argue a tightening from June (maybe into early July), but being very stable since then.

Elcorazon, I said the race wasn't "tightening," but I did not say the race wasn't tight. I'd say zero to three on Rasumssen, but I think it's been there for at least a month.

Not a runaway, but a close race.

the only way it could be much closer is if it were dead even, swinging from -2 to +2 from day to day with no discernable leader.  Obama's lead has been wafer thin for weeks now, at least based on these tracking polls.

[elcorazon]

Might be a bounce going on here.  No idea how great it'll be.

[J.J.]too soon to tell.  I'll let you know later in the week [/J.J.]

[elcorazon]

I just literally LOL'ed

[elcorazon]

State polls always lag behind national ones. I wouldn't expect the ones released today to show any tightening much at all.

Even polls conducted on the same day?  Totally!  Let me remind everyone:

Pollster: Hello, I'm calling to ask for your Presidential preference.

Voter: Wait, is this a state or national poll?

Pollster: State.

Voter: In that case, the man I supported three days ago, Barack Obama!

It's the "bandwagon" effect of the polls though. What I mean is that if people see that McCain is now closer in the national poll, they are more likely to poll for him. No one wants to poll for a loser.

that just means that trends will pick up once they start.  that makes no distinction between state/national polls.

I think that it seems like there is a lag for 3 reasons:

1) some state polls are not released immediately, while most national polls come out right away;
2) more state polls take place over multiple days so that they are a bit old when they come out; and
3) when we look at national maps consisting of all the states in their various colors, many of these are created based on state polls, the majority of which do NOT reflect the latest trends in the national polls... mostly because they haven't been polled as recently.

National polls by definition are always semi-current and they are constantly being conducted.  Weeks, even months occasionally pass between reputable state polls.