Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]
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  Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]
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Author Topic: Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]  (Read 296963 times)
CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #125 on: June 28, 2008, 02:46:33 AM »

Look closely at the numbers!

In only three of the categories did Obama break 50%, and that just barely with his highest being 54%!

The truth is that McCain has real low numbers, which he has earned!
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Umengus
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« Reply #126 on: June 28, 2008, 05:04:49 AM »

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Er... wow.

lol I can't believe that. Fake poll ("air connu").

Of course, "moral values" need not pertain exclusively to such issues as abortion and same-sex marriage, they could, also, apply to, for example, corporate malfeasance. Besides a series of Republican scandals may well have dented the party's traditional advantage

Dave

indeed but I think that on the election day, Mc Cain will be first on this problem.
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #127 on: June 28, 2008, 08:38:44 AM »

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Er... wow.

lol I can't believe that. Fake poll ("air connu").

Of course, "moral values" need not pertain exclusively to such issues as abortion and same-sex marriage, they could, also, apply to, for example, corporate malfeasance. Besides a series of Republican scandals may well have dented the party's traditional advantage

Dave

indeed but I think that on the election day, Mc Cain will be first on this problem.

I'd be surprised if he isn't but it's plausible that "moral values" won't be the primary factor in determining how one votes to the extent it was in 2004. The 'marriage' issue was, of course, on the ballot in several states which, undoubtedly, galvanised social conservatives. In 2004, social conservatives were core, the vangaurd, among Bush activists; while 22% of voters cited "moral values" as their most important issue, breaking for Bush by 80% to Kerry's 18%

I don't know how salient "values issues" were, in 2006, in terms of voters citing it is their top issue but they broke as follows:

Extremely important (36%): Democrat 40%; Republican 58%
Very important (21%): Democrat 51%; Republican 48%
Somewhat important (20%): Democrat 61%; Republican 37%

Important (77%): Democrat 37.31%; Republican 38.36%

Not at all important (22%): Democrat 69%; Republican 29%

In 2006, white evangelical/born-again Christians (24%) broke Democrat 28% (+7 on 2004) and Republican 70% (-8 on 2004). White evangelicals comprised 71% of evangelicals; but the remaining 29%, largely African-American I'd have thought, obviously closed the gap overall: Democrat 41%; Republican 58%.

Obama is reaching out to centrist evangelicals and Catholics - appealing to their, for want of better words, social consciences. Add to that the distrust many evangelicals have towards McCain. That said, it is a presidential year, which brings the issue of judicial nominees into the mix

Trawling comments as I do on various media sites, I've encountered some hostility towards McCain citing aspects of his private life; namely, his tomcatting when married to his first wife, from whom he separated then divorced so that he could marry his younger, richer mistress

Dave
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J. J.
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« Reply #128 on: June 28, 2008, 08:16:58 PM »

No current Gallup.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #129 on: June 29, 2008, 05:49:25 AM »

Obama Holds Slim Advantage Over McCain Among Catholics [26 June, 2008]

Hispanic Catholics tip group in Obama's favor

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108382/Obama-Holds-Slim-Advantage-Over-McCain-Among-Catholics.aspx

Presidential Vote Preference, by Religious Affiliation

Protestant: McCain 48%; Obama 41%

-White: McCain 56%; Obama 32%
-Non-White: McCain 15%; Obama 77%

Catholic: McCain 43%; Obama 47%

-Non-Hispanic: McCain 46%; Obama 43%
- Hispanic: McCain 25%; Obama 66%

Mormon: McCain 70%; Obama 23%

Jewish: McCain 29%; Obama 62%

No religion: McCain 25%; Obama 65%

June 5-23, Gallup Daily tracking

Dave

I guess BRTD can certainly go back to getting lap dances from hispanic women now. It also looks like Obama's Jewish "problem" has been extremely overblown by the media (going by this and several other polls).

McCain polling 30-60 when Bush did about 25-75 in 2004 is a definite, substantial improvement. Of course, you can say that the poll is wrong, etc. And in overall numbers the number of Jews is still too low to make a real impact with this kind of change.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #130 on: June 29, 2008, 12:14:16 PM »

Obama takes the lead again ...

Obama - 46% (+2)
McCain - 42% (-2)
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #131 on: June 29, 2008, 12:15:35 PM »

Obama takes the lead again ...

Obama - 46% (+2)
McCain - 42% (-2)

Smiley

Registered voters' preferences had been evenly divided in the prior three Gallup Poll Daily tracking releases. Obama has now pushed slightly back ahead after a stronger showing in Saturday's polling, mirroring the slight advantage he has held for much of June. The polling was the first Gallup had conducted following the "Unity" rally in which Obama and former Democratic nomination rival Hillary Clinton publicly campaigned together.

The presidential race has been close since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in March. The largest lead for either candidate has been just seven percentage points, for Obama after Clinton decided to suspend her campaign.
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J. J.
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« Reply #132 on: June 29, 2008, 02:16:31 PM »

My guess is a 4-6 point race.

That pro-McCain sample passed through the system
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #133 on: June 29, 2008, 05:58:24 PM »

Obama takes the lead again ...

Obama - 46% (+2)
McCain - 42% (-2)

Will the Republican hacks still act like this is the only national poll that matters?
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Aizen
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« Reply #134 on: June 29, 2008, 05:59:52 PM »

Obama takes the lead again ...

Obama - 46% (+2)
McCain - 42% (-2)


Oops. Looks like some people got a little too excited.
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J. J.
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« Reply #135 on: June 30, 2008, 02:39:12 PM »

Obama takes the lead again ...

Obama - 46% (+2)
McCain - 42% (-2)


Oops. Looks like some people got a little too excited.

I'm not entirely sure how waiting for a days sample to get out of the average and saying it's a 4-6 point race, at this point is getting "excited."
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #136 on: June 30, 2008, 06:16:52 PM »

Monday, June 30, 2008

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 42% (nc)
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #137 on: June 30, 2008, 06:24:15 PM »

About One in Four Voters are "Swing Voters" [30 June, 2008]

Higher proportion than in 2004

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108466/About-One-Four-Voters-Swing-Voters.aspx

Voter Preference and Commitment for the 2008 Presidential Election

42% Obama, certain to vote for
8% Obama, could change mind
6% Undecided/Other
9% McCain, could change mind
35% McCain, certain to vote for

Percentage of Swing Voters, by Political Party

16% Democrats
34% Independents
21% Republicans

Percentage of Swing Voters, by Ideology

12% Liberal
27% Moderate
27% Conservative

Views of Barack Obama and John McCain, Swing Voters

50% View both favorably
13% View Obama favorably, McCain unfavorably
17% View McCain favorably, Obama unfavorably
11% View both unfavorably

Views of Barack Obama and John McCain, Committed Voters

25% View both favorably
36% View Obama favorably, McCain unfavorably
31% View McCain favorably, Obama unfavorably
2% View both unfavorably

June 15-19, USA Today/Gallup Poll

Dave
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #138 on: June 30, 2008, 06:26:17 PM »



Voter Preference and Commitment for the 2008 Presidential Election

42% Obama, certain to vote for
8% Obama, could change mind
6% Undecided/Other
9% McCain, could change mind
35% McCain, certain to vote for

Percentage of Swing Voters, by Political Party

16% Democrats
34% Independents
21% Republicans



So much for that large proportion of swing Hillary voters.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #139 on: June 30, 2008, 06:32:29 PM »

Again, a valuable post.

Please note that the so-called "swing" voters have a much more negative view of both McCain and Obama than the committed voters!

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Gustaf
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« Reply #140 on: July 01, 2008, 06:09:26 AM »

Again, a valuable post.

Please note that the so-called "swing" voters have a much more negative view of both McCain and Obama than the committed voters!



How is that strange? Of course the number of commited Obama or McCain voters disapproving of both candidates will be low. If you disapprove of a candidate you're unlikely to be solid for him. There are many more swing voters that approve of both than commited voters too.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #141 on: July 01, 2008, 10:49:36 AM »

I'm not entirely sure how waiting for a days sample to get out of the average and saying it's a 4-6 point race, at this point is getting "excited."

It's the whole thing where one person started a new thread about Obama and McCain being tied in this daily tracking poll.
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J. J.
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« Reply #142 on: July 01, 2008, 03:38:12 PM »

I'm not entirely sure how waiting for a days sample to get out of the average and saying it's a 4-6 point race, at this point is getting "excited."

It's the whole thing where one person started a new thread about Obama and McCain being tied in this daily tracking poll.

I think the bulk of posters said, "Maybe this just one bad sample."
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Brittain33
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« Reply #143 on: July 01, 2008, 04:07:55 PM »

I'm not entirely sure how waiting for a days sample to get out of the average and saying it's a 4-6 point race, at this point is getting "excited."

It's the whole thing where one person started a new thread about Obama and McCain being tied in this daily tracking poll.

I think the bulk of posters said, "Maybe this just one bad sample."

I agree, attributing the posts of one or two people to a whole party's worth of posters is bad.
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #144 on: July 01, 2008, 07:05:03 PM »

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 42% (nc)
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #145 on: July 01, 2008, 07:21:42 PM »

Americans Worry McCain Would Be Too Similar to Bush [1 July, 2008]

About half are concerned Obama would go too far in changing Bush policies

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108490/Americans-Worry-McCain-Would-Too-Similar-Bush.aspx

How concerned are you that, as president, John McCain would pursue policies that are too similar to what George W. Bush has pursued ...

Very concerned: 49% (Democrats 76%; Independents 47%; Republicans 20%)
Somewhat concerned: 19% (Democrats 14%; Independents 20%; Republicans 25%)
Not too concerned: 16% (Democrats 4%; Independents 17%; Republicans 30%)
Not concerned at all: 15% (Democrats 6%; Independents 15%; Republicans 25%)

How concerned are you that, as president, Barack Obama would go too far in changing the policies that George W Bush has pursued ...

Very concerned: 30% (Democrats 16%; Independents 22%; Republicans 56%)
Somewhat concerned: 19% (Democrats 15%; Independents 20%; Republicans 23%)
Not too concerned: 19% (Democrats 21%; Independents 22%; Republicans 14%)
Not at all concerned: 31% (Democrats 47%; Independents 34%; Republicans 7%)

June 15-19, 2008, USA Today/Gallup poll

Dave
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #146 on: July 01, 2008, 07:44:13 PM »


How concerned are you that, as president, John McCain would pursue policies that are too similar to what George W. Bush has pursued ...

Very concerned: 49% (Democrats 76%; Independents 47%; Republicans 20%)
Somewhat concerned: 19% (Democrats 14%; Independents 20%; Republicans 25%)
Not too concerned: 16% (Democrats 4%; Independents 17%; Republicans 30%)
Not concerned at all: 15% (Democrats 6%; Independents 15%; Republicans 25%)

45% of Republicans are concerned that McCain would pursue policies that are too similar to those of Bush

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31% of Democrats are concerned that Obama would go too far in changing the policies Bush has pursued

Dave
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #147 on: July 02, 2008, 11:08:28 AM »

Hispanic Voters Solidly Behind Obama [2 July, 2008]

Few demographic differences evident among Hispanics

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108532/Hispanic-Voters-Solidly-Behind-Obama.aspx

Presidential Preference, by Party Identification

Democrats: Obama 78%; McCain 13%
Independents: Obama 55%; McCain 30%
Republicans (18%): Obama 21%; McCain 75%

Presidential Preference, by Ideology

Liberal: Obama 78%; McCain 14%
Moderate: Obama 60%; McCain 28%
Conservative (36%): Obama 46%; McCain 45%

Presidential Preference, by Age

18 to 29 years old: Obama 66%; McCain 26%
30 to 49 years old: Obama 59%; McCain 31%
50 to 64 years old: Obama 56%; McCain 33%
65 years or older: Obama 51%; McCain 30%

Presidential Vote Preference by Demographic Subgroup, Among Hispanics

Men: Obama 60%; McCain 32%
Women: Obama 59%; McCain 29%

College graduate: Obama 60%; McCain 32%
College non-graduate: Obama 59%; McCain 29%

Married: Obama 55%; McCain 35%
Not married: Obama 63%; McCain 25%

Attend Church weekly: Obama 54%; McCain 34%
Attend Church monthly: Obama 61%; McCain 30%
Seldom/Never attend: Obama 63%; McCain 27%

East: Obama 64%; McCain 25%
Midwest: Obama 63%; McCain 25%
South: Obama 52%; McCain 36%
West: Obama 62%; McCain 29%

Monthly income of < $2,000: Obama 62%; McCain 23%
Monthly income of $2,000 to < $5,000: Obama 60%; McCain 31%
Monthly income of $5,000 to < $7,500: Obama 58%; McCain 34%
Monthly income of $7,500 or more: Obama 54%; McCain 39%

Based on aggregated Gallup Poll Daily tracking data, March-June 2008

Dave
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #148 on: July 02, 2008, 12:08:25 PM »

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

The June 29-July 1 data show a tightening of the race with the candidates falling back into a statistical tie. Obama led by five percentage points in Monday and Tuesday reports -- based largely on polling conducted over the weekend -- perhaps enjoying a slight bounce following his "Unity" rally with former rival Hillary Clinton last Friday.

In the last two individual nights of polling, voter preferences have been closely divided. The race has generally been close in recent weeks, with Obama usually holding a slight edge.

Obama has been able to attain brief leads following his clinching of the nomination in early June and the Obama-Clinton joint campaign appearance.

These slight Obama bumps have proven to be short-lived, and from a larger perspective there has not been a dramatic restructuring of the race in recent weeks. For example, Obama has averaged 46% of the vote going back to Gallup's June 1-5 release, and his daily percentage over this time period has ranged only between 44% and 48%. McCain's percent of the vote has averaged 43%, and his percent has varied only across an even narrower range between 42% and 45%.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #149 on: July 02, 2008, 01:53:51 PM »

Just bumping around...  The real Gallup numbers are probably still around Obama +2 to +3%, as they have been for a few weeks now.
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