Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Rowan]

Weekend bounce.

[Zarn]

So Obamas Gallup numbers are going up and up, and almost everywhere else they're going down. What to make of this?

Like I just said, I have noticed that Gallup sometimes seems to lag behind a little.

I could be wrong, though. Gallup could even be right.

[Eraserhead]

Hells yeah!

[Meeker]

Outstanding.

[Lief 🗽]

So Obamas Gallup numbers are going up and up, and almost everywhere else they're going down. What to make of this?

Like I just said, I have noticed that Gallup sometimes seems to lag behind a little.

That doesn't make any sense at all. "Oh, you're a pollster with Gallup? Let me tell you who I supported three days ago."

[ill ind]

  The trackers have been pretty steady around the 4 to 5% area for several days now.  When one goes up for Obama, another goes down.  To me it looks like the race is pretty stable right now.  I'm going on the record and predicting an Obama 52%-48% victory in 2 weeks.

Ill Ind

From the state of Illinois--definitely not one of the 'pro-America' parts of America :->

[Alcon]

So Obamas Gallup numbers are going up and up, and almost everywhere else they're going down. What to make of this?

Like I just said, I have noticed that Gallup sometimes seems to lag behind a little.

That doesn't make any sense at all. "Oh, you're a pollster with Gallup? Let me tell you who I supported three days ago."

Mmm.  This is definitely my least favorite new poll-apologist explanation.

It's true that some pollsters are more prone to swings, that that relates to composition model.  The idea that a pollster could get a "laggy" sample is kind of hard to fathom.

[fezzyfestoon]

Here's the graph of both Gallup and Rasmussen I've been keeping since June with a 10-day moving average, for those interested.  The thick lines are the averages, so ignore the part going past the thin lines, which are the actual poll numbers.



Somebody's wrong.

[??????????]

Yep, McCain is closing the gap, as expected.

[Gustaf]

So Obamas Gallup numbers are going up and up, and almost everywhere else they're going down. What to make of this?

Like I just said, I have noticed that Gallup sometimes seems to lag behind a little.

That doesn't make any sense at all. "Oh, you're a pollster with Gallup? Let me tell you who I supported three days ago."

Mmm.  This is definitely my least favorite new poll-apologist explanation.

It's true that some pollsters are more prone to swings, that that relates to composition model.  The idea that a pollster could get a "laggy" sample is kind of hard to fathom.

Sam claims, and I think I have seen evidence of that myself too, that state polls lag behind national ones. That would be equally strange wouldn't it?

Anyway, it could be fathomed if they're a) lying a little bit about when they conduct their interviews or b) do it at different times of the day than other pollsters.

But it's probably just some kind of noise/coincidence, etc. Maybe even the famed weekend-bounce, who knows?

[Alcon]

Sam claims, and I think I have seen evidence of that myself too, that state polls lag behind national ones. That would be equally strange wouldn't it?

Anyway, it could be fathomed if they're a) lying a little bit about when they conduct their interviews or b) do it at different times of the day than other pollsters.

But it's probably just some kind of noise/coincidence, etc. Maybe even the famed weekend-bounce, who knows?

I really think it's that state polls often have a few days of delayed release, so it seems like there is such a delay.  It's seriously the only semi-plausible explanation, unless people magically sense it's a state-level poll and decide to report their opinion from a few days ago.

I think that situation is a little different from a weekend bounce, which is a plausible idea but is probably eaten by noise to a degree.

[TheGlobalizer]

Problem is once he's elected and he destroys the economy and allows Russia to run over Eastern Europe (it would be the perfect time to do it), people will be still praising him.

Just to comment on this -- not a far-off statement, if by "Eastern Europe" we're talking about Ukraine, Belarus, and the Caucasus, and to a lesser extent the Baltics.

Run over politically, that is.  If Canada or Mexico were as active in our politics as Russia is in its neighbors, many of our citizens would be clamoring for war.

[freedomburns]

The race is widening, not tightening.  The polls are looking good.

[J. J.]

The race is widening, not tightening.  The polls are looking good.

Actually the RCP measure shows the race tightening, but not by much.

[freedomburns]

The race is widening, not tightening.  The polls are looking good.

Actually the RCP measure shows the race tightening, but not by much.

How do you figure that when it shows a 5.0 lead for Obama yesterday, and a 5.3 lead for him today?  Hmmm?? 

As usual, you are wrong.  I will assume that you are simply ignorant/poorly informed here, and not intentionally lying so as to benefit your political leanings.  Either way, you suck!

[ChrisFromNJ]

Gallup
RV's
Obama 52%(nc)
McCain 41%(-1)

LV's Trad
Obama 50%(+1)
McCain 45%(-1)

LV's Expanded
Obama 52%(+1)
McCain 43%(-1)

GALLUP SHOCK: OBAMA UP 5

[Sam Spade]

I wonder if anyone would care to explain this oddity within Gallup today...

Registered Voters - 2,774 interviews
Likely Voters (Expanded) - 2,271 interviews
Likely Voters (Traditional) - 2,340 interviews

You know what this makes Sam Spade think...

[J. J.]

I wonder if anyone would care to explain this oddity within Gallup today...

Registered Voters - 2,774 interviews
Likely Voters (Expanded) - 2,271 interviews
Likely Voters (Traditional) - 2,340 interviews

You know what this makes Sam Spade think...

Since I don't focus on sample size, what does it make you think?

The race is widening, not tightening.  The polls are looking good.

Actually the RCP measure shows the race tightening, but not by much.

How do you figure that when it shows a 5.0 lead for Obama yesterday, and a 5.3 lead for him today?  Hmmm?? 

As usual, you are wrong.  I will assume that you are simply ignorant/poorly informed here, and not intentionally lying so as to benefit your political leanings.  Either way, you suck!

The RCP composite is what I was referring to.

[Lief 🗽]

I wonder if anyone would care to explain this oddity within Gallup today...

Registered Voters - 2,774 interviews
Likely Voters (Expanded) - 2,271 interviews
Likely Voters (Traditional) - 2,340 interviews

You know what this makes Sam Spade think...

No, we don't Sam. Please enlighten us.

[Alcon]

I wonder if anyone would care to explain this oddity within Gallup today...

Registered Voters - 2,774 interviews
Likely Voters (Expanded) - 2,271 interviews
Likely Voters (Traditional) - 2,340 interviews

You know what this makes Sam Spade think...

Since I don't focus on sample size, what does it make you think?

It's not really so much sample size overall, as the fact that the traditional LV model is picking up more than the expanded model, which...I don't understand, personally, at all.  I must have been assuming Gallup was doing it differently than they are.

I have no idea what Sam is thinking, unless it's "wtf?".

[freedomburns]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, me too.  And it just went up more for Obama as they added in some polls that came out today.

Now it is up to 5.8 points up for Obama.  This is definitely trending towards Obama then, and away from a race that is tightening.  This race is widening now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

Is there some other page that you are looking at?  Because from what I see there, you seem to be even wronger than before.

fb

[TheGlobalizer]

The race is widening, not tightening.  The polls are looking good.

Actually the RCP measure shows the race tightening, but not by much.

How do you figure that when it shows a 5.0 lead for Obama yesterday, and a 5.3 lead for him today?  Hmmm?? 

As usual, you are wrong.  I will assume that you are simply ignorant/poorly informed here, and not intentionally lying so as to benefit your political leanings.  Either way, you suck!

Shhhh.  You're becoming a troll.

[J. J.]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, me too.  And it just went up more for Obama as they added in some polls that came out today.

Now it is up to 5.8 points up for Obama.  This is definitely trending towards Obama then, and away from a race that is tightening.  This race is widening now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

Is there some other page that you are looking at?  Because from what I see there, you seem to be even wronger than before.

fb

This one.

Diageo Hotline Poll - 10/20

Obama 47% (-1)
McCain 42% (+1)

GW Battleground - 10/20

Obama 49% (nc)
McCain 45% (nc)

RCP has its closest margin in weeks - 4.8 Obama.

How do you figure that when it shows a 5.0 lead for Obama yesterday, and a 5.3 lead for him today?  Hmmm?? 

As usual, you are wrong.  I will assume that you are simply ignorant/poorly informed here, and not intentionally lying so as to benefit your political leanings.  Either way, you suck!

Shhhh.  You're becoming a troll.

Becoming?

[Alcon]

The race is widening, not tightening.  The polls are looking good.

Actually the RCP measure shows the race tightening, but not by much.

How do you figure that when it shows a 5.0 lead for Obama yesterday, and a 5.3 lead for him today?  Hmmm?? 

As usual, you are wrong.  I will assume that you are simply ignorant/poorly informed here, and not intentionally lying so as to benefit your political leanings.  Either way, you suck!

Shhhh.  You're becoming a troll.

He's always been a troll, but the troll is right.

It's also now +5.8.  Somehow I'm trusting realclearpolitics.com more on the realclearpolitics.com average than something Peper11 posted 10 hours ago (call me zany, call me nuts.)

[J. J.]

The race is widening, not tightening.  The polls are looking good.

Actually the RCP measure shows the race tightening, but not by much.

How do you figure that when it shows a 5.0 lead for Obama yesterday, and a 5.3 lead for him today?  Hmmm?? 

As usual, you are wrong.  I will assume that you are simply ignorant/poorly informed here, and not intentionally lying so as to benefit your political leanings.  Either way, you suck!

Shhhh.  You're becoming a troll.

He's always been a troll, but the troll is right.

It's also now +5.8.  Somehow I'm trusting realclearpolitics.com more on the realclearpolitics.com average than something Peper11 posted 10 hours ago (call me zany, call me nuts.)

It might have changed since I, or Pepper posted.  I'm see no clear trends at this point, however.