Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Torie]

Damn, must have been some insanely pro-McCain sample.

Maybe that 2001 radio interview clip of Obama is hurting him some. I know it bothers me. I was close to finally going for Obama, but am for the moment now pulling back. Stay tuned. Hopefully Obama will say something about it reassuring, such as he's a lot more up to speed now, than then.

[Torie]

Pretty substantial movement today.

Bradley Effect?

The definition of that is something that is not picked up in polls no?

[Eraserhead]

Pretty substantial movement today.

Bradley Effect?

The definition of that is something that is not picked up in polls no?

I'm guessing he was joking.

[Torie]

Pretty substantial movement today.

Bradley Effect?

The definition of that is something that is not picked up in polls no?

I'm guessing he was joking.

I fear I might get the reputation as the straight man on this forum. 

[J. J.]

Tuesday - October 28:

RV:

Obama 50% (-2)
McCain 43% (+1)

LV (Expanded):

Obama 51% (-2)
McCain 44% (+1)

LV (Traditional):

Obama 49% (-1)
McCain 47% (+2)

[Lunar]

Pretty substantial movement today.

Bradley Effect?

The definition of that is something that is not picked up in polls no?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=86643.msg1788561#msg1788561

[they don't love you like i love you]

Must've picked up a 1-in-20 sample last night.

[J. J.]

Must've picked up a 1-in-20 sample last night.

Or Rasmussen was?  I want to see TIPP and the lesser polls.

[pepper11]

5-6 days ago Obama had just about his largest lead to date in the majority of the trackers.  Since then McCain has gained significant ground in 6 of the 8 trackers.  Data below.

Somehow, I would imagine that when I look at 538s regression tonight, it will magically show, yet again, that despite the polls showing otherwise, that the race is indeed flat.  

Ras: was O + 8, nowO + 5.                     McCain gains 3.
ABC/Post: was O + 11, now O + 7          McCain gains 4.
Zogby: was O + 12, now O + 4.              McCain gains 8
Kos: was O + 12, now O + 7.                  McCain gains 5.
IBD: was O + 6, now O + 3.                     McCain gains 3.
Gallup Trad: was O + 7, now O + 2        McCain gains 5

The sole exceptions are Battleground ang Hotline which show a stable race.

[elcorazon]

this could be dramatically good news for McCain.  high weekend numbers remained for Obama.  I will let you know by Thursday if this is real.

[J. J.]

this could be dramatically good news for McCain.  high weekend numbers remained for Obama.  I will let you know by Thursday if this is real.

You are actually right, though you don't realize it. 

The was no movement in Rasmussen, so I'm somewhat skeptical.

[TheGlobalizer]

this could be dramatically good news for McCain.  high weekend numbers remained for Obama.  I will let you know by Thursday if this is real.

You are actually right, though you don't realize it. 

The was no movement in Rasmussen, so I'm somewhat skeptical.

To be fair, Ras went bonkers for McCain yesterday.

[Iosif]

this could be dramatically good news for McCain.  high weekend numbers remained for Obama.  I will let you know by Thursday if this is real.

You are actually right, though you don't realize it. 

The was no movement in Rasmussen, so I'm somewhat skeptical.

And went back to an Obama +8 sample today.

To be fair, Ras went bonkers for McCain yesterday.

[J. J.]

Actually Iosif, Rasmussen didn't move in it's main numbers.

[Iosif]

Actually Iosif, Rasmussen didn't move in it's main numbers.

No, no it didn't. But an excellent Obama sample dropped off, therefore an equally excellent Obama sample had to come on to keep the numbers from changing.

I'm glad to be of help.

[Lunar]

And Drudge finally grabs the number.  Took them long enough!

[Sam Spade]

And Drudge finally grabs the number.  Took them long enough!

Well, what did you expect?

[Lunar]

And Drudge finally grabs the number.  Took them long enough!

Well, what did you expect?

Him to do it quicker!

[Torie]

Well here is the McCain spin of the day, fed to Rich Lowry, who is glad Christopher Buckley resigned from NR:

"The McCain campaign says their internal polling still shows tightening, and their track shows them down three in the swing states. Fwiw..."

[Eraserhead]

Well here is the McCain spin of the day, fed to Rich Lowry, who is glad Christopher Buckley resigned from NR:

"The McCain campaign says their internal polling still shows tightening, and their track shows them down three in the swing states. Fwiw..."

But what do they actually consider to be the "swing states" these days?

[Wall St. Wiz]

Well here is the McCain spin of the day, fed to Rich Lowry, who is glad Christopher Buckley resigned from NR:

"The McCain campaign says their internal polling still shows tightening, and their track shows them down three in the swing states. Fwiw..."

I just heard Gingrich say the same thing, according to the internals McCain is gaining ground in the battleground states and is now within striking distance in all of them.

Not sure how to take that, as it implies that he is currently behind in all of them.

[Democratic Hawk]

And Drudge finally grabs the number.  Took them long enough!

Matt must be j**king off when numbers like these come along

[MR maverick]

Which Model is the right one to go by for this election?  It appears like gallup is trying to have it 3 ways , so either way they was right about the election.

Expanded mode takes into account new voters and higher turnout right?

[Nym90]

Which Model is the right one to go by for this election?  It appears like gallup is trying to have it 3 ways , so either way they was right about the election.

Expanded mode takes into account new voters and higher turnout right?

Expanded takes into consideration only currently stated intentions about voting.

Traditional takes into consideration currently stated intentions and also past voting behavior.

[MR maverick]

Which one should be considered for this years election?