Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[memphis]

Which one should be considered for this years election?

If we knew that, Gallup wouldn't bother posting the different models. Nobody knows who will turnout this year.

[MR maverick]

Which one should be considered for this years election?

If we knew that, Gallup wouldn't bother posting the different models. Nobody knows who will turnout this year.

Well we know that its not going to be lower then 2004.

Thats pretty much out of the question.

[Gustaf]

Personally, I suspect the traditional model will be closer to the truth than the expanded one. I tend to average the two in my head and then move it a point to towards the traditional one. Not really scientific, but whatever.

It does seem like McCain is doing a little bit better right now. It is what I used to expect but then gave up on when Obama surged earlier. Still doesn't really matter though - Obama's margin, once compared to the number of remaining days, is definitely big enough.

[Rococo4]

i know its been said, but i just want to reiterate how BS it is that gallup is doing 3 different numbers.  i cant believe they are being allowed to get away with it.  sure, turnout is hard to predict, but that is their job.

[Lunar]

i know its been said, but i just want to reiterate how BS it is that gallup is doing 3 different numbers.  i cant believe they are being allowed to get away with it.  sure, turnout is hard to predict, but that is their job.

Yeah I hate getting additional numbers that help me decide what movement in the race is looking like.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

i know its been said, but i just want to reiterate how BS it is that gallup is doing 3 different numbers.  i cant believe they are being allowed to get away with it.  sure, turnout is hard to predict, but that is their job.

I actually think its fair since this election, probably more that any other in a long time has such a capacity for an unpredictable turnout.

[elcorazon]

i know its been said, but i just want to reiterate how BS it is that gallup is doing 3 different numbers.  i cant believe they are being allowed to get away with it.  sure, turnout is hard to predict, but that is their job.

I vehemently disagree.  People just assume polls are the gospel, or they assume the are junk.  We know neither is true.  They are actually doing a service for those paying attention by basically saying, all we can do is ask people who they are voting for and some other basic questions.  After that, we don't control what happens.  Some people will say they are voting and not vote.  Some people will vote for years and then not vote.  Some people will vote for the very first time this year.  Having 3 sets of numbers might help analyze what happens after the fact.

Ultimately it is OK that we don't know FOR SURE the state of the election every second (much as I'd like to know it); we'll all find out in 6 days.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm resigned to the inevitability of Gallup being way too good for McCain later today. He will be President-elect this time next week, on that I'm absolutely 100% certain

Dave

[Eraserhead]

Gallup better give me some good news today or I'm-a-gonna have to choke a bitch.

[Eraserhead]

I'm resigned to the inevitability of Gallup being way too good for McCain later today. He will be President-elect this time next week, on that I'm absolutely 100% certain

Dave

Knock it off.

[MODU]

I'm resigned to the inevitability of Gallup being way too good for McCain later today. He will be President-elect this time next week, on that I'm absolutely 100% certain

Dave

While I'm sure many would love to see that happen, I think it is premature to start crowning someone the winner.  Polling, especially in 2008, is as reliable as a used car from the classifieds.  

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm resigned to the inevitability of Gallup being way too good for McCain later today. He will be President-elect this time next week, on that I'm absolutely 100% certain

Dave

While I'm sure many would love to see that happen, I think it is premature to start crowning someone the winner.  Polling, especially in 2008, is as reliable as a used car from the classifieds.  

Dave.... seriously, breathe.

I'm worried by the degree to which McCain is closing, and will be beyond horrfied if McCain/Palin actually manages to have won... but there is a lot of unpredictable elements, we simply don't know.

[TheGlobalizer]

i know its been said, but i just want to reiterate how BS it is that gallup is doing 3 different numbers.  i cant believe they are being allowed to get away with it.  sure, turnout is hard to predict, but that is their job.

It is intellectually honest.  I respect it.

[Eraserhead]

I'm resigned to the inevitability of Gallup being way too good for McCain later today. He will be President-elect this time next week, on that I'm absolutely 100% certain

Dave

While I'm sure many would love to see that happen, I think it is premature to start crowning someone the winner.  Polling, especially in 2008, is as reliable as a used car from the classifieds.  

Dave.... seriously, breathe.

I'm worried by the degree to which McCain is closing, and will be beyond horrfied if McCain/Palin actually manages to have won... but there is a lot of unpredictable elements, we simply don't know.

Also to suggest McCain/Palin is more likely to win than not is still, at this point, pretty silly... let alone saying they have 100% chance of victory.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm resigned to the inevitability of Gallup being way too good for McCain later today. He will be President-elect this time next week, on that I'm absolutely 100% certain

Dave

While I'm sure many would love to see that happen, I think it is premature to start crowning someone the winner.  Polling, especially in 2008, is as reliable as a used car from the classifieds.  

Dave.... seriously, breathe.

I'm worried by the degree to which McCain is closing, and will be beyond horrfied if McCain/Palin actually manages to have won... but there is a lot of unpredictable elements, we simply don't know.

Also to suggest McCain/Palin is more likely to win than not is still, at this point, pretty silly... let alone saying they have 100% chance of victory.

Lets just say a wave of fatalistic, pessimism has afflicted me. The pragmatic , albeit liberal-leaning, Christian Democrat that is Sen. Obama is being smeared something atrociously

Dave

[Ronnie]

Dave, don't get pessimistic yet.  When Obama slips under 50%, you should worry.

[Reaganfan]

Dave, don't get pessimistic yet.  When Obama slips under 50%, you should worry.

That's beginning to happen...

[Democratic Hawk]

Dave, don't get pessimistic yet.  When Obama slips under 50%, you should worry.

I'd rather not be worrying at all. Competence is my litmus and I have way more confidence in the pragmatic , albeit liberal-leaning, Christian Democratic Obama, on economic and quallity of life issues, who has little in common philosophically with George W Bush, than I do McCain, well who has much, unfortunately, in common with the presidential equivalent of a dogsh**t sandwich and a wretched record to boot!

Dave

[Eraserhead]

Enough with "Christian Democrat" thing, Dave. You're like a broken record.

Personally, I'm still hoping he's a closet athiest/non-religious, but that's me.

[Democratic Hawk]

Enough with "Christian Democrat" thing, Dave. You're like a broken record.

That's exactly what Obama is on economic and quality of life issues

You must be logged in to read this quote.

On social issues, I'd say Obama is liberal-leaning

Dave

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Enough with "Christian Democrat" thing, Dave. You're like a broken record.

That's exactly what Obama is on economic and quality of life issues

You must be logged in to read this quote.

On social issues, I'd say Obama is liberal-leaning

Dave

I think the point is you keep saying the same thing over and over and it's gotten almost as annoying as that "after you the deluge" stuff from J. J. Yes, we know why you support Obama and don't support McCain.

[Democratic Hawk]

Enough with "Christian Democrat" thing, Dave. You're like a broken record.

That's exactly what Obama is on economic and quality of life issues

You must be logged in to read this quote.

On social issues, I'd say Obama is liberal-leaning

Dave

I think the point is you keep saying the same thing over and over and it's gotten almost as annoying as that "after you the deluge" stuff from J. J. Yes, we know why you support Obama and don't support McCain.

I've just about had it with Obama being vilified and smeared by the Right and when I see McCain closing, it tells me that those tactics could be working

Dave

[Meeker]

Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

RV
Obama: 51% (+1)
McCain: 42% (-1)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 49%
McCain: 46% (-1)


"Tightening", my ass...

[Brittain33]

Tightening my ass...

TMI.

[Eraserhead]

Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

RV
Obama: 51% (+1)
McCain: 42% (-1)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 49%
McCain: 46% (-1)


Tightening my ass...

Maybe Dave can take Bob Dylan's advice and take the rag away from his face now.