Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[MODU]

The race is not tightening. Any upset by McCain will be because of illegitimate reasons.

Huh?

[Verily]

Friday, October 31st, 2008

RV
Obama: 52% (+2)
McCain: 42% (-1)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 52% (+1)
McCain: 43% (-1)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 51% (+1)
McCain: 43% (-2)




Happy Halloween!

[Reds4]

Looks like Game set and match.

[Lіef]

Oh my. That just made my day.

[Lunar]

There's a great thread called "The Coming McCain Victory" in the campaign subforum.

[nick]

Friday, October 31st, 2008

RV
Obama: 52% (+2)
McCain: 42% (-1)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 52% (+1)
McCain: 43% (-1)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 51% (+1)
McCain: 43% (-2)




Happy Halloween!

Obamamercial bounce, Obamamercial bounce!

[Lіef]

PRINCETON, NJ -- The political landscape could be improving for Barack Obama in the waning days of the campaign. Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 28-30 shows him with an eight percentage point lead over John McCain among traditional likely voters -- 51% to 43% -- his largest margin to date using this historical Gallup Poll voter model.

Since Tuesday, McCain's support among traditional likely voters has dropped by four points (from 47% to 43%), Obama's has risen by two points (from 49% to 51%), and the percentage of undecided voters has increased from 4% to 6%.

Thursday night's interviews are the first conducted entirely after Obama's widely viewed 30-minute prime-time campaign ad, which ran on several television networks Wednesday evening. Obama held a substantial lead over McCain in last night's polling, however no greater than what Gallup found on Wednesday.

Obama's lead among expanded likely voters is only slightly greater than that seen among traditional likely voters. He now leads McCain by nine-points, 52% to 43%, using this looser definition that does not factor in whether respondents have voted in past elections, but strictly relies on their reported level of interest and intention to vote in the 2008 election.

Obama's current 11-point lead over McCain among all registered voters -- 52% to 41% -- is up from an eight-point lead in yesterday's report, and ties his highest advantage on this basis, last recorded 10 days ago. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Obama's favorable position among traditional likely voters in the latest polling is partially reflective of his strong position among all registered voters. However, at other times when Obama has led McCain by 11-points among registered voters, his likely voter advantage has been lower than it is now, in the five- to seven-point range. Thus, Obama's improved likely voter standing also reflects a higher turnout propensity for his supporters than what Gallup has seen at earlier times this month. This could stem from the superiority his well-funded campaign appears to have over the McCain campaign in contacting his supporters to get out and vote. -- Lydia Saad

This election is Safe Obama.

[GMantis]

The McCain comeback seems to be in trouble.

[J. J.]

The McCain comeback seems to be in trouble.

Very much so, if this is a good sample.  I suspect it is.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

This should be showing some of the impact of the infomercial. I wish Rasmussen was showing the same thing but whatever... this is awesome.

[Reds4]

Actually, I suspect last night's sample was pretty good for Obama in rasmussen's numbers, since the night that rolled off was very pro Obama.

This should be showing some of the impact of the infomercial. I wish Rasmussen was showing the same thing but whatever... this is awesome.

[Lіef]

This should be showing some of the impact of the infomercial. I wish Rasmussen was showing the same thing but whatever... this is awesome.

Gallup sez Wednesday and Thursday night's interviews were pretty much the same, though both obviously very good for Obama.

[Kalimantan]

Thems some nice numbers

5 days to go

[Ronnie]

It's over.  I kind of regret voting for McCain now.

[VP Duke]

It's over.  I kind of regret voting for McCain now.

Why? Just because your candidate might not win doesn't mean you should just go along with the crowd and vote for Obama. Sheesh! That's the most pathetic thing you've said in a long time, Ronnie.

[Ronnie]

It's over.  I kind of regret voting for McCain now.

Why? Just because your candidate might not win doesn't mean you should just go along with the crowd and vote for Obama. Sheesh! That's the most pathetic thing you've said in a long time, Ronnie.

Torie has convinced me just a teency bit that McCain wouldn't be too credible.  I don't like his campaign message currently, since it has moved fully to desperation, with the robocalls and all.

I despise Obama, but now I don't think I will be too upset when he is declared president-elect.

[VP Duke]

It's over.  I kind of regret voting for McCain now.

Why? Just because your candidate might not win doesn't mean you should just go along with the crowd and vote for Obama. Sheesh! That's the most pathetic thing you've said in a long time, Ronnie.

Torie has convinced me just a teency bit that McCain wouldn't be too credible.  I don't like his campaign message currently, since it has moved fully to desperation, with the robocalls and all.

I despise Obama, but now I don't think I will be too upset when he is declared president-elect.

I have a lot of respect for Torie, but I disagree with him that Obama is less risky than McCain. Neither one really knows the economy, but Obama has the potential to really create a mess if he allows the Democrats to raise taxes. Hell, we don't know if it's going to be for those of us who make $250k, $200k, $150k, or $120k. Everyone keeps giving us different answers. The fact that he gets a free pass on this issue is really pissing me off.

Part of me will be happy when he gets elect so the Democrats will finally get blamed for the mess they helped create when the economy goes into the crapper in 2009, but another part of me sees what long term damage Obama might do to the country. Bernie Frank said it himself, "There are a lot of rich people that we can tax a lot."

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Torie is a cool guy and a realist.

[Ronnie]

It's over.  I kind of regret voting for McCain now.

Why? Just because your candidate might not win doesn't mean you should just go along with the crowd and vote for Obama. Sheesh! That's the most pathetic thing you've said in a long time, Ronnie.

Torie has convinced me just a teency bit that McCain wouldn't be too credible.  I don't like his campaign message currently, since it has moved fully to desperation, with the robocalls and all.

I despise Obama, but now I don't think I will be too upset when he is declared president-elect.

I have a lot of respect for Torie, but I disagree with him that Obama is less risky than McCain. Neither one really knows the economy, but Obama has the potential to really create a mess if he allows the Democrats to raise taxes. Hell, we don't know if it's going to be for those of us who make $250k, $200k, $150k, or $120k. Everyone keeps giving us different answers. The fact that he gets a free pass on this issue is really pissing me off.

Part of me will be happy when he gets elect so the Democrats will finally get blamed for the mess they helped create when the economy goes into the crapper in 2009, but another part of me sees what long term damage Obama might do to the country. Bernie Frank said it himself, "There are a lot of rich people that we can tax a lot."

Note: I still support McCain; my support is just a whole lot more mild than before.

I kind of have a dueling political ideology.  One part of me is a hard line capitalist, who favors very low income taxes across the board; and another part of me is a moderate populist, that favors increasing foreign aid to countries in poverty.  It is tough to enthusiastically support a candidate who pandered to the far right wing of the Republican party, instead of sticking with his "maverick" views of the past.

My instinct says that if Obama is elected, he won't side with the extremists of his party, i.e. raising taxes, if the economy is crap.  Remember that Obama would really want to be reelected, and he would do anything that he can to not send us in a depression.  He has economic advisers, and I doubt they would advise him to raise taxes on anyone if the GDP plummets 2% in a quarter (which is looking to be increasingly likely).  The pressure is on the Democratic congress -- if they can handle no taxes on the rich for a short while.

My fear is that if McCain will be elected, there will be very much gridlock.  The silver lining to this is that gridlock is a WHOLE lot better than any kind of agenda the Democrats will implement.  This is pretty much the sole reason I support McCain; I want to have divided government, and he is my last best hope (though, not for long, as it seems).  I would likely be strongly leaning toward Obama now if the GOP was in control.

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, October 31st, 2008

RV
Obama: 52% (+2)
McCain: 42% (-1)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 52% (+1)
McCain: 43% (-1)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 51% (+1)
McCain: 43% (-2)

Not very often I nowadays but this warrants one! Then Planet Zogby struck ...........

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Friday, October 31st, 2008

RV
Obama: 52% (+2)
McCain: 42% (-1)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 52% (+1)
McCain: 43% (-1)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 51% (+1)
McCain: 43% (-2)

Not very often I nowadays but this warrants one! Then Planet Zogby struck ...........

... and you take Zogby seriously?

[Democratic Hawk]

... and you take Zogby seriously?

I may if the other pollsters point to Friday 31st showing a similar trend. That said The Drudge points out that the three-day average is holding steady

Nate's got it up now but points out that one day results can be highly volatile and the Zogster uses nonsensical party weighting

Dave

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

... and you take Zogby seriously?

I may if the other pollsters point to Friday 31st showing a similar trend. That said The Drudge points out that the three-day average is holding steady

Nate's got it up now but points out that one day results can be highly volatile and the Zogster uses nonsensical party weighting

Dave

The man is a goddamned liar, dude.

[MR maverick]

It's over.  I kind of regret voting for McCain now.

Why? Just because your candidate might not win doesn't mean you should just go along with the crowd and vote for Obama. Sheesh! That's the most pathetic thing you've said in a long time, Ronnie.

Torie has convinced me just a teency bit that McCain wouldn't be too credible.  I don't like his campaign message currently, since it has moved fully to desperation, with the robocalls and all.

I despise Obama, but now I don't think I will be too upset when he is declared president-elect.

I have a lot of respect for Torie, but I disagree with him that Obama is less risky than McCain. Neither one really knows the economy, but Obama has the potential to really create a mess if he allows the Democrats to raise taxes. Hell, we don't know if it's going to be for those of us who make $250k, $200k, $150k, or $120k. Everyone keeps giving us different answers. The fact that he gets a free pass on this issue is really pissing me off.

Part of me will be happy when he gets elect so the Democrats will finally get blamed for the mess they helped create when the economy goes into the crapper in 2009, but another part of me sees what long term damage Obama might do to the country. Bernie Frank said it himself, "There are a lot of rich people that we can tax a lot."

Seriously you guys take the tax issue way too far.

I don't think either on will really do anything with taxes atleast nothing extreme. McCain will look out for the rich like a good republican would, Obama less so.

Obama is not risky .. look at how he's ran the campaign compared to McCain being all over the road.

And ... PALIN = more risky then un protected sex with a hooker.

[Mr.Jones]

Looking at the fact that McCain can pass away any time because of his old age, seriously can we afford Sarah Palin as our President after 8 years of Bush presidency ?