Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I can't believe McCain has been asleep and the race is essentially tied.

It's really not.

Of course it is, can't you read? Obama should be ahead by 15-20 pts.

Oh please.

[Democratic Hawk]

There may not be any major movement until after the conventions; though the Veep choices could see them bounce a little here and there

Right now, it's not too difficult to conceive young, dynamic, fresh, visionary Obama receiving a substantial bounce post-Denver. Not so sure about the lackluster McCain, who could lose ground post-St Paul as his acceptance speech falls flat

I don't buy the opinion that Obama should be ahead by 15 to 20 points. He is yet to cross, as Charlie Cook puts it, the "acceptability threshold". The time for Obama to address the "risk" factor that comes with insurgent candidates will be in the head to head debates with McCain; and, as we know, Obama can be underwhelming in debates. Hope he's got his best Devil's Advocate out there with him

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Gaining Among Voters With Less Formal Education [9 July, 2008]

Has erased deficit to McCain

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108709/Obama-Gaining-Among-Voters-Less-Formal-Education.aspx

1. High school educations or less

Mar 2008: Obama 40%; McCain 47%
Apr 2008: Obama 41%; McCain 45%
May 2008: Obama 43%; McCain 46%

Jun 2008: Obama 43%; McCain 43%. By subgroup:

Men: Obama 42%; McCain 46%
Women: 44%; McCain 40%
White: Obama 34%; McCain 51%
Nonwhite: Obama 73%; McCain 17%

2. Some college: Obama 46%; McCain 44%

3. College graduates with non-post graduate education: Obama 47%; McCain 45%

4. Postgraduate eduction: Obama 43%; McCain 40%. By gender:

Men: Obama 46%; McCain 47%
Women: Obama 61%; McCain 32%

Monthy aggregated Gallup Poll Daily tracking data

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

[J. J.]

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

I heard one of the talking heads saying that Obama tends to pick up on the weekends; we'll see what happens this week.

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (-1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, July 11, 2008

Obama - 48% (+2)
McCain - 42% (-1)

Obama has typically held a modest advantage over McCain since early June. The six percentage point lead in the latest results, based on July 8-10 polling, ranks among the presumptive Democratic nominee's bigger leads, just one point shy of a high seven-point lead in June 7-9 polling.

In the last two weeks, Obama's share of the vote has ranged between 46% and 48%, while McCain's has ranged from 42% to 44%. So while preferences have not shifted dramatically, Obama enjoys a larger lead in the latest report because his support is now at the upper end of his recent range while McCain's is at the lower end of his.

The numbers for the last three individual nights of polling have been consistent -- with Obama's advantage over McCain ranging from four to seven points -- further reinforcing the notion that preferences at this point of the campaign are quite stable.

[Verily]

Gallup and Rasmussen, once again, agreeing to disagree. (Which mostly just shows that there are no trendlines to be drawn, and things are steady at about Obama+4/5.)

[Tender Branson]

Saturday - July 12, 2008:

Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

[MSUfan]

(yawn)

[Democratic Hawk]

Fewer Americans See McCain, Obama Views as "About Right" [11 July, 2008]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108775/Fewer-Americans-See-McCain-Obama-Views-About-Right.aspx

Do you think John McCain's political views are too conservative, about right or too liberal?

USA Today/Gallup polls, June 15-19, 2008, [and Feb. 8-10, 2008]

Too conservative: 40% [30%]. Among Republicans 20% [10%]; Independents 41% [33%]; Democrats 57% [43%]

About right: 37% [42%]. Among Republicans 60% [63%]; Independents 34% [42%]; Democrats 21% [26%]

Too liberal: 15% [20%]

Do you think Barack Obama's political views are too conservative, about right or too liberal?

USA Today/Gallup polls, June 15-19, 2008, [and Feb. 8-10, 2008]

Too conservative: 9% [8%]

About right: 43% [47%]. Among Republicans 15% [28%]; Independents 44% [49%]; Democrats 68% [58%]

Too liberal: 40% [37%]. Among Republicans 75% [65%]; Independents 36% [33%]; Democrats 15% [20%]

How concerned are you that John McCain and Barack Obama may be too closely aligned with people who hold radical political views?

USA Today / Gallup poll, June 15-19, 2008

Very concerned: McCain 17%; Obama 28%
Somewhat concerned: McCain 25%; Obama 24%
Not too concerned: McCain 30%; Obama 23%
Not at all concerned: McCain 27%; Obama 24%

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

[J. J.]

My guess was a four point race, possibly some slight erosion from mid June.  We'll see if it's dropped for a 4-6 point race to a 2-4 or tied-2 point race by mid week.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

Today marks the 14th straight Gallup Poll Daily tracking report in which 46% to 48% of voters favor Obama, and between 42% and 44% favor McCain. This narrow zone has given Obama a continuous, but fairly slim, lead over the two-week period.

Obama also held a slim lead for most of June (averaging three percentage points), although he led by a six to seven point margin for three days at the start of June. The two candidates were tied for a brief period in late June, but the last time McCain held a significant lead over Obama was in early May.

First, the element of time is all too often underestimated in political calculations.

A candidate who trails for an extended period of time tends to find his financial resources stunted, his workers dispirited, and himself depressed (and more likely to do something stupid).

Second, the Gallup poll you are using is a "registered voter" poll, and as such understates the real Obama lead as "likely" voters are more likely to favor Obama over McCain than registered voters.

[Keystone Phil]

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

This begs the question - Could this be the end of John McCain's campaign?

[Prez Duke]

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

This begs the question - Could this be the end of John McCain's campaign?

I'm not sure, but McCain will have to spend a lot of time and money in Mississippi, North Carolina, Montana, North Dakota, and Kansas incase they flip.

[MSUfan]

Obama is building up a huge campaign infrastructure in the swing states while you guys dither about making sarcastic remarks about states that most likely won't flip.

Hey, maybe I discovered Obama's campaign strategy. Spent a little money in places like MS and GA to get the Republicans making sarcastic remarks about them while they could be attacking him on real issues. Genius.

[Rowan]

Second, the Gallup poll you are using is a "registered voter" poll, and as such understates the real Obama lead as "likely" voters are more likely to favor Obama over McCain than registered voters.

Now this is just blantaly false spin. McCain would lead if they used a likely voter format because Obama's supporters(blacks and kids) are less likely to vote than McCain supporters(conservatives and seniors).

[Keystone Phil]

Obama is building up a huge campaign infrastructure in the swing states while you guys dither about making sarcastic remarks about states that most likely won't flip.

Good thing I'm not in charge of running McCain's campaign.  

That does remind me though...I'll start doing my part to help McCain get elected tomorrow. The Philadelphia HQs opens tomorrow afternoon and it's only ten minutes from my house. It's based right in the middle of one of those swing blue collar areas that happened to be Hillary's base in the city.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Second, the Gallup poll you are using is a "registered voter" poll, and as such understates the real Obama lead as "likely" voters are more likely to favor Obama over McCain than registered voters.

Now this is just blantaly false spin. McCain would lead if they used a likely voter format because Obama's supporters(blacks and kids) are less likely to vote than McCain supporters(conservatives and seniors).

You really need to look at the facts!

While, in most elections, Republican candidates typically perform better among "likely voters" than among "registered voters," McCain is an exception.

[MSUfan]

Obama is building up a huge campaign infrastructure in the swing states while you guys dither about making sarcastic remarks about states that most likely won't flip.

Good thing I'm not in charge of running McCain's campaign. 

That does remind me though...I'll start doing my part to help McCain get elected tomorrow. The Philadelphia HQs opens tomorrow afternoon and it's only ten minutes from my house. It's based right in the middle of one of those swing blue collar areas that happened to be Hillary's base in the city.

Lucky. Our County HQ hasn't opened yet so I'm forced to go to the part-time one in Sagnasty, I mean Saginaw, and they force me to do Voter Reg. in the ghetto.

[Keystone Phil]

Obama is building up a huge campaign infrastructure in the swing states while you guys dither about making sarcastic remarks about states that most likely won't flip.

Good thing I'm not in charge of running McCain's campaign. 

That does remind me though...I'll start doing my part to help McCain get elected tomorrow. The Philadelphia HQs opens tomorrow afternoon and it's only ten minutes from my house. It's based right in the middle of one of those swing blue collar areas that happened to be Hillary's base in the city.

Lucky. Our County HQ hasn't opened yet so I'm forced to go to the part-time one in Sagnasty, I mean Saginaw, and they force me to do Voter Reg. in the ghetto.

Well, my real volunteer work won't start tomorrow. I'm just going to check out the place and pick up a few things which means I have to help out a bit. I know a few of the guys running the show for McCain in SE PA so I get all the local e-mail updates. They mentioned a bunch of things to do tomorrow including putting together some lawn signs. The fact of the matter is that I need a few signs for myself and some others but can't just be an asshole, walk in, pick them up and leave. 

[CARLHAYDEN]

Second, the Gallup poll you are using is a "registered voter" poll, and as such understates the real Obama lead as "likely" voters are more likely to favor Obama over McCain than registered voters.

Now this is just blantaly false spin. McCain would lead if they used a likely voter format because Obama's supporters(blacks and kids) are less likely to vote than McCain supporters(conservatives and seniors).

Not spin, simple fact.

While it is true that Republican candidates typically do better among likely voters than among registered voters, McCain is an exception.

While I could cite several polls, different dates and methodologies could be used to explain the discrepencies, so, I cite Gallup, who had both likely and registered results in the June 19, 2008 poll.  Here are the results:

        Registered Voters                                Likely Voters
McCain     Obama     Difference         McCain     Obama     Difference

  44%         46%            3%                44%         50%            6%

Now, if you look at a variety of polls, you will see that there is a drastic difference in the enthusiasm of the supporters of Obama versus McCain.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Obama is building up a huge campaign infrastructure in the swing states while you guys dither about making sarcastic remarks about states that most likely won't flip.

Good thing I'm not in charge of running McCain's campaign. 

That does remind me though...I'll start doing my part to help McCain get elected tomorrow. The Philadelphia HQs opens tomorrow afternoon and it's only ten minutes from my house. It's based right in the middle of one of those swing blue collar areas that happened to be Hillary's base in the city.

Lucky. Our County HQ hasn't opened yet so I'm forced to go to the part-time one in Sagnasty, I mean Saginaw, and they force me to do Voter Reg. in the ghetto.

Well, my real volunteer work won't start tomorrow. I'm just going to check out the place and pick up a few things which means I have to help out a bit. I know a few of the guys running the show for McCain in SE PA so I get all the local e-mail updates. They mentioned a bunch of things to do tomorrow including putting together some lawn signs. The fact of the matter is that I need a few signs for myself and some others but can't just be an asshole, walk in, pick them up and leave. 

When you go in, don't tell them you're a Republican (or a sort of conservative), or they'll probably tell you to leave.

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, July 14, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (nc)