Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

a few, maybe, but if you're going to make the same sarcastic comment over and over and over and over, you better be calling out more than a few people.

We've seen a lot of puffery about Obama, even down to "Obama leading" in several states where his numbers were, in fact, steadily dropping.  It's still happening.

Now, I'm 100% in favor of noting this a close race, with Obama having an edge at this point, but it is not solid.

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Retains Strength Among Highly Educated [30 July, 2008]

McCain does best among those with college degrees but no further education

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109156/Obama-Retains-Strength-Among-Highly-Educated.aspx

Preference for the General Election, by Education

High school or less: Obama 46%; McCain 39%

Some college: Obama 47%; McCain 42%

College graduate: Obama 45%; McCain 47%

Postgraduate: Obama 54; McCain 39%

Weekly aggregate of registered voters, July 21-27, 2008

Dave

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Just curious dave, how much does the DNC pay you to spout their talking points on this site?

[Brittain33]

Just curious dave, how much does the DNC pay you to spout their talking points on this site?

That's not a talking point, it's a competely neutral assessment and in line with previous voting patterns. Republican voting increases with education until you get to graduate school, and then it drops.

[J. J.]

Just curious dave, how much does the DNC pay you to spout their talking points on this site?

That's not a talking point, it's a competely neutral assessment and in line with previous voting patterns. Republican voting increases with education until you get to graduate school, and then it drops.

That might be job related.

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, August 1, 2008:

Obama - 44% (-1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

This is not much different from the results reported in Gallup Poll Daily tracking on Thursday, when the two were nearly tied with 45% for Obama and 44% for McCain. However, it is a substantial turnaround from earlier this week when Obama held a statistically significant lead coming off his high-profile trip to Europe, Afghanistan, and the Middle East.

Obama and McCain were closely matched in each of the three nights of interviewing included in today's result, with neither candidate ahead by more than three percentage points. This suggests that the recent surge in voter support for Obama has truly subsided.

The contrast between Obama's recent advantage over McCain (ranging from six to nine points) and today's result is particularly notable because this is McCain's strongest showing in over a month. The last time Gallup found the race exactly tied was in late June. By contrast, in the weeks just prior to Obama's overseas trip, he had led the race by an average of four points. [/quote]

[J. J.]

This does not include the weekend numbers, but this is NOT good news for Obama, considering that this was real attempt to breakout.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Over the last coupld of weeks there has been a mild (and slow) thightening of the race.

As tracking polls tended to go up and down on a daily basis, and the changes were over the long term relatively small, it took some time to determine that the tightening was real, and not just "noise,"

As to the reason(s) for the tightening, there are several which are potential factors, but one which seems to pretty definitely be a factor, i.e. the difference in the candidates current position on energy production.

The Senate Democrats seem to largely have understood that the position of opposing increases in energy production is untenable, while Obama and Pelsi are resolution in there determination that Americans lower their standard of living.

How long will it take Obama to realize that he needs to abandon his 'hairshirt' approach to energy production is likely to harm his candidacy, and change his policy?

[J. J.]

Either today or tomorrow. we should see the "weekend bump" for Obama, and at some point a lead of 3-4 points.  Anything below that, Obama suffering some moderate to major erosion.

[Josh/Devilman88]

This National numbers don't match up with the state numbers.... I hate summer time.

[J. J.]

This National numbers don't match up with the state numbers.... I hate summer time.

At this stage, the state numbers might be following the national numbers.

Right now, I'm looking at broad trends.  After the conventions, I'll start focusing on the state polls.

[Josh/Devilman88]

This National numbers don't match up with the state numbers.... I hate summer time.

At this stage, the state numbers might be following the national numbers.

Right now, I'm looking at broad trends.  After the conventions, I'll start focusing on the state polls.

Ah, ok, I think I am just going to wait until Sept to make anymore predictions...

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday, August 2, 2008:

Obama - 44% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

[Rowan]

I guess Obama didn't get his usual bounce from Friday night polling. This is interesting.

[J. J.]

Saturday, August 2, 2008:

Obama - 44% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

I'll wait until tomorrow, but this might be the start of bad news for Obama.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Ouch. No weekend bounce for Obama today.

[Keystone Phil]

Saturday, August 2, 2008:

Obama - 44% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Perfect

[Josh/Devilman88]

Saturday, August 2, 2008:

Obama - 44% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Perfect

Remember it is still summer and polls aren't going to show the real race until Sept.

[Keystone Phil]

Saturday, August 2, 2008:

Obama - 44% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Perfect

Remember it is still summer and polls aren't going to show the real race until Sept.

Exactly. This is when Obama is supposed to be kicking ass.

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, I remember when Reagan was barely ahead during the Summer of 1980 too. Carter's second term was great.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Saturday, August 2, 2008:

Obama - 44% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Perfect

Remember it is still summer and polls aren't going to show the real race until Sept.

Exactly. This is when Obama is supposed to be kicking ass.

No he's not, I think its funny, when a poll comes out that shows McCain down by 10%, you say oh its summer time things will change. But when a poll comes out with them tied, you say Oh this poll is race, Obama is going to lose because he is suppose to be up by alot. The fact is alot will change we still don't now the VPs and its Aug. We really wont now the state of the race until Sept/Oct.

[LanceMcSteel]

Can Conservatives please explain why an all American war hero is losing in the polls to a man with a middle name Hussein?

[Alcon]

Can Conservatives please explain why an all American war hero is losing in the polls to a man with a middle name Hussein?

I'm not a conservative, but I'm also not a total ignoramus, so I can.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, I remember when Reagan was barely ahead during the Summer of 1980 too. Carter's second term was great.

When you read for me all of the controversy that surrounds Obama and then do the same for Reagan, I'll concede that that's a good point.

Can Conservatives please explain why an all American war hero is losing in the polls to a man with a middle name Hussein?

Because our party and the President in the White House who happens to be a member of our party are very unpopular.

Are you telling us that someone with the name "Hussein" should be ahead in the polls because of their name?

Also, the man with the middle name "Hussein" is leading by about a point or two in the polls. Not really a great lead.

Saturday, August 2, 2008:

Obama - 44% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Perfect

Remember it is still summer and polls aren't going to show the real race until Sept.

Exactly. This is when Obama is supposed to be kicking ass.

No he's not, I think its funny, when a poll comes out that shows McCain down by 10%, you say oh its summer time things will change. But when a poll comes out with them tied, you say Oh this poll is race, Obama is going to lose because he is suppose to be up by alot. The fact is alot will change we still don't now the VPs and its Aug. We really wont now the state of the race until Sept/Oct.

Democrats traditonally lead during the summer months, Josh. Plus, it's clear that if Obama is Mr. Frontrunner, he shouldn't be ahead by just a point or two. This is when he should be kicking ass. Almost everyone with a clue agrees.

[agcatter]

We won't see much movement until the conventions and then just mini bounces.  I predict the race stays about like it is for the next three weeks.