Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[CARLHAYDEN]

Well, facts and logic mean nothing to you.

Your answer to all situations is appeasement.

According to you, opposing aggressors will only make them more aggressive.

According to you, aggressors will always win.

Yes, your adoration of Putin and his thugs is clear.

Oh, and yes, or course, lets see, the Georgians were bayoneting babies (um, that was the British propaganda in WWI).  You will believe anything bad about the Georgians, and dismiss any atrocity by the Russians.

You have indicated absolutely no credentials other than being an unthinking proponent of appeasement.

You have offered no facts, just your misguided opinions.

I expect next you will produce Russian propaganda alledging the Georgians invaded Moscow.

Have you no shame?

[Democratic Hawk]

What's the matter with Gallup today ? No Poll ?

Yes, it came in moments ago

Saturday, August 16, 2008

Obama - 45% (+1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Obama and McCain have been closely matched in each the past four individual days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking, including in the Aug. 13-15 polling represented in today's three-day rolling average. Thus there appears to be a degree of stability to voter preferences in recent days.

which is better than yesterday

[Dan the Roman]

Well, facts and logic mean nothing to you.

Your answer to all situations is appeasement.

According to you, opposing aggressors will only make them more aggressive.

According to you, aggressors will always win.

Yes, your adoration of Putin and his thugs is clear.

Oh, and yes, or course, lets see, the Georgians were bayoneting babies (um, that was the British propaganda in WWI).  You will believe anything bad about the Georgians, and dismiss any atrocity by the Russians.

You have indicated absolutely no credentials other than being an unthinking proponent of appeasement.

You have offered no facts, just your misguided opinions.

I expect next you will produce Russian propaganda alledging the Georgians invaded Moscow.

Have you no shame?

Have you no brain. No reading comprehension? No desire to engage in reasonable discussion? No facts with which to respond, hence the invective? I think this conversation is through. We have throughly concluded that you have no knowledge, no comprehension and no ability to reason on this matter. I feel like I am talking to a wall. In fact I probably am, that or an online bot.

[CARLHAYDEN]

You are the most incredibly stupid and ignorant person I have ever encountered on this forum.

You have NO knowledge whatsoever of the facts of the situation, no comprehension of the forces involved, nor any reading comprehension.

I have cited numerous sources, you have cited Utube.

The failure of the west to oppose Russian aggression will open an entirely more dangerous world.

The Chinese now see Russia as a threat which they may have to deal with themselves.

Yes, I know you always apologize for the Russians and always advocate appeasement as a response to their aggression.

Fortunately, the Chinese have a different solution.

So, when war comes, people like you invited it!

[CARLHAYDEN]

Here's an AP story (yes, I know liberalrepublican only believes UTube and Russian propaganda)
-----
Aug 16, 10:48 PM (ET)
By CHRISTOPHER TORCHIA

IGOETI, Georgia (AP) - Russian forces built ramparts around tanks and posted sentries on a hill in central Georgia on Saturday, digging in despite Western pressure for Moscow to withdraw its forces under a cease-fire deal signed by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

The United States and France said it appeared Russia was defying the truce already. Russian troops still controlled two Georgian cities and the key east-west highway between them Saturday, cities well outside the breakaway provinces where earlier fighting was focused.

"From my point of view - and I am in contact with the French - the Russians are perhaps already not honoring their word," U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said.

Russia's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, said Medvedev had signed the cease-fire deal and ordered its implementation, but would not withdraw troops until Moscow is satisfied that security measures allowed under the agreement are effective. He said Russia would strengthen its peacekeeping contingent in South Ossetia, the separatist Georgian region at the center of more than a week of warfare that sharply soured relations between Moscow and the West.
 
Asked how much time it would take, he responded: "As much as is needed."

President Bush warned Russia Saturday that it cannot lay claim to the two separatist regions in U.S.-backed Georgia even though their sympathies lie with Moscow. "There is no room for debate on this matter," the president, with Rice, told reporters at his Texas ranch.

Later Saturday, Georgia's Foreign Ministry accused Russian army units and separatist fighters in one of the regions, Abkhazia, of taking over 13 villages and the Inguri hydropower plant, shifting the border of the Black sea province toward the Inguri River.

Abkhaz officials could not immediately be reached for comment on the late-night claim, and there was no information on whether the seizure involved violence.

The villages and plant are in a U.N.-established buffer zone on Abkhazia's edge, and it appeared that the separatists were bolstering their control over the zone after Russian-backed fighters forced Georgians out of their last stronghold in Abkhazia earlier this week.
 
The tense peace pact in Georgia, a U.S. ally that has emerged as a proxy for conflict between an emboldened Russia and the West, calls for both Russian and Georgian forces to pull back to positions they held before fighting erupted Aug. 7 in the other breakaway province, South Ossetia in central Georgia.

But freshly dug positions of Russian armor in the town of Igoeti, about 30 miles west of the capital Tbilisi, showed that Russia was observing the truce at the pace and scope of its choosing.

Rice noted that the text of the cease-fire agreement, negotiated by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, the current leader of the European Union, outlined a very limited mandate only for Russian peacekeepers who were in Georgia at the time hostilities escalated. She said the agreement specifies that these initial peacekeepers can have limited patrols in a prescribed area within the conflict zone and would not be allowed to go into Georgian urban areas or tie up a cross-country highway.

According to Rice, Medvedev told Sarkozy that the minute the Georgian president signed the cease-fire agreement, Russian forces would begin to withdraw.

Sarkozy said Saturday that the truce explicitly bars Russian troops from Gori or "any major urban area" of Georgia.

Earlier Saturday, Russian forces dug shallow foxholes in the middle of Igoeti and parked tanks, one flying a Russian flag, along the road. In the afternoon, they withdrew from those positions to the town's western outskirts. There, they set up defensive positions with tank cannons pointed back toward Georgian-held territory, where police and soldiers milled about, awaiting Russia's next move.

West of Igoeti, Russian troops were deployed in large numbers in and around the strategic city of Gori.  Military vehicles on the side of the road were camouflaged with branches; a couple of soldiers slept on stretchers in the shade of the hulking machines.

Russian troops effectively control the main artery running through the western half of Georgia, because they surround the strategic central city of Gori and the city and air base of Senaki in the west. Both cities sit on the main east-west highway that slices through two Georgian mountain ranges.

Controlling Senaki, which sits on a key intersection, also means the Russians control access to the Black Sea port city of Poti and the road north to Abkhazia. AP reporters have seen Russian troops there for days but noted a growing contingent Saturday and artillery guns and tanks pointed out from the city, which they appear to be using as a base for their sorties elsewhere in western Georgia.

An Associated Press Television News team saw Russian soldiers pulling out of the Black Sea port of Poti Saturday after sinking Georgian naval vessels and ransacking the port. A picture of Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili in the looted office of the Navy and Coast Guard had been vandalized, with the face scratched out.
 
"They have robbed the military base and taken almost everything, and they have burned or sunk the stuff they could not carry," port worker Zurab Simonia said.

Georgia, meanwhile, claimed that Russian forces blew up a railroad bridge Saturday. Russia denied it.

The rival claims underscored the fragility of the cease-fire. Lavrov said the deal Saakashvili signed Friday differed from the one with Medvedev's signature, with Saakashvili's version lacking an introductory preamble. While that difference may appear to be a technicality, it could be one either side could cite if it wants to abandon the deal.
 
The Russian army quickly overwhelmed its neighbor's forces and drove deep into Georgia, raising fears that it was planning on a long-term occupation.

Even if Russian forces do withdraw from the rest of Georgia, Moscow appears likely to maintain strong control over South Ossetia. Lavrov said Thursday that Georgia can "forget about" South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which broke from Georgian government control in early 1990s wars, and their future status is shaping up as a potentially explosive source of tension.

In Texas, Bush said, "A major issue is Russia's contention that the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia may not be a part of Georgia's future. These regions are a part of Georgia and the international community has repeatedly made clear that they will remain so."

Russia views the growing relationship between the U.S. and Georgia as an encroachment on its traditional sphere of influence and a threat to its clout. The fighting came amid U.S. efforts to close a deal on a missile shield based in former Soviet satellites in Europe, an issue already damaging ties with its former Cold War foe.
---
Associated Press writers Mansur Mirovalev in Gori and Tskhinvali, Jim Heintz, Angela Charlton and Steve Gutterman in Moscow, and Deb Riechmann in Crawford, Texas contributed to this report.

[Dan the Roman]

You are the most incredibly stupid and ignorant person I have ever encountered on this forum.

You have NO knowledge whatsoever of the facts of the situation, no comprehension of the forces involved, nor any reading comprehension.

I have cited numerous sources, you have cited Utube.

The failure of the west to oppose Russian aggression will open an entirely more dangerous world.

The Chinese now see Russia as a threat which they may have to deal with themselves.

Yes, I know you always apologize for the Russians and always advocate appeasement as a response to their aggression.

Fortunately, the Chinese have a different solution.

So, when war comes, people like you invited it!

Where is your evidence for any of you claims. What evidence have you that the Chinese consider Russia a threat? I have seen no evidence of it. In fact, Russia is China's largest arms supplier, and has recently been selling them SSBNs which is not something you would do if you had designs on them.

I linked to a fox news segment, I am perfectly happy to dig up an AP article if you want  on South Ossetia. You presented nothing but an AP article showing yes, that the Russians are digging in and pressing their advantage. I have never contended that the Russians do not have negative intentions to the present Georgian state. I have argued that there is little we can do militarily that will not harm our interests else ware, and I do not see what in this article contradicts that.

Is Russia acting like a hegemony in its backyard, yes? Should we take steps to secure the Baltic States and the Ukraine? Absolutely? Is this a sign that Russia is somehow gone crazy or that Putin is bent on world domination? Not in the least. We need a proportionate response, which involves both a carrot, willingness to take into account Russia's legitimate strategic an regional concerns, something we did not do over Kosovo, or our decision to place an ostensibly anti-Iranian missile defense shield in Estonia, whilst simultaneously making it clear that encroachments are not acceptable.

In the end we do not want Russia as an enemy, because regardless of your confidence in the Chinese, they have been cooperating far more of late with Putin on issues ranging from Iran to Zimbabwe, than they have with us. I am not sure they want to take a stand on the principle of the inviolability of breakaway provinces given their own situation with Taiwan, since they want to reserve the option to deal with Taiwan in the same manner that Russia has dealt with Georgia, if Taiwan acts in the same manner.

[HardRCafé]

You are the most incredibly stupid and ignorant person I have ever encountered on this forum.

This must be the first time you've ever read other people's posts, then.  There are at least fifty people who can't even type a complete sentence.

[Democratic Hawk]

What's with the raging discussion between Carl and Dan anyways? I'm minded to rename the thread

Dave

[CARLHAYDEN]

You are the most incredibly stupid and ignorant person I have ever encountered on this forum.

You have NO knowledge whatsoever of the facts of the situation, no comprehension of the forces involved, nor any reading comprehension.

I have cited numerous sources, you have cited Utube.

The failure of the west to oppose Russian aggression will open an entirely more dangerous world.

The Chinese now see Russia as a threat which they may have to deal with themselves.

Yes, I know you always apologize for the Russians and always advocate appeasement as a response to their aggression.

Fortunately, the Chinese have a different solution.

So, when war comes, people like you invited it!

Where is your evidence for any of you claims. What evidence have you that the Chinese consider Russia a threat? I have seen no evidence of it. In fact, Russia is China's largest arms supplier, and has recently been selling them SSBNs which is not something you would do if you had designs on them.

I linked to a fox news segment, I am perfectly happy to dig up an AP article if you want  on South Ossetia. You presented nothing but an AP article showing yes, that the Russians are digging in and pressing their advantage. I have never contended that the Russians do not have negative intentions to the present Georgian state. I have argued that there is little we can do militarily that will not harm our interests else ware, and I do not see what in this article contradicts that.

Is Russia acting like a hegemony in its backyard, yes? Should we take steps to secure the Baltic States and the Ukraine? Absolutely? Is this a sign that Russia is somehow gone crazy or that Putin is bent on world domination? Not in the least. We need a proportionate response, which involves both a carrot, willingness to take into account Russia's legitimate strategic an regional concerns, something we did not do over Kosovo, or our decision to place an ostensibly anti-Iranian missile defense shield in Estonia, whilst simultaneously making it clear that encroachments are not acceptable.

In the end we do not want Russia as an enemy, because regardless of your confidence in the Chinese, they have been cooperating far more of late with Putin on issues ranging from Iran to Zimbabwe, than they have with us. I am not sure they want to take a stand on the principle of the inviolability of breakaway provinces given their own situation with Taiwan, since they want to reserve the option to deal with Taiwan in the same manner that Russia has dealt with Georgia, if Taiwan acts in the same manner.

First, the Russians remember sucessfully dealing with the chinese in the 1969-1970 Amur border dispute and assume that they can sucessfully deal with them today, so they sell their weaponry to the Chinese for profit.  They are extremely foolish in in this process.  The evidence of Chinese hostitlity to the Russians will soon manifest itself, but you will deny it when it happens.

Second, if you had understood the AP article, you would have noted that the Russians are clearly violating the provisions of the truce.  But that's ok with you, which explains your ignoring that data.

Third, that you want to reward the Russians for their aggression is not suprising.  Just how many  "carrots" do you want to give them?

Fourth, its nice that you now say that we should "take steps to secure the Baltic states and the Ukraine."  I must be dubious about this statement as, under your previous definition, they are in the Russian sphere, where you have stated we must give Russia carte blanche to act however they feel like acting.  Oh, and do those steps consist of piling up more carrots to reward the Russians for more aggression (you were more than a little bit vague).

Fifth, its interesting to see you finally get around to the Kosovo argument.  Yes, for once the Russians do have a point, the United States acted illegally, immorally and unwisely in taking territority awary from the Serbs to create a naroterrorist, islamofascist state.  However, the wrongful act of the United States in Kosovo does NOT legimitmize the Russian imperialism in Georgia.

[Verily]

What's with the raging discussion between Carl and Dan anyways? I'm minded to rename the thread

Dave

Angry Rants Thread (and Gallup Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain])

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - August 17, 2008

Obama - 45% (nc)
McCain - 45% (+1)

[Rowan]

I think this is the first time that McCain has hit 45% in Gallup since Obama won the nomination.

[J. J.]

Sunday - August 17, 2008

Obama - 45% (nc)
McCain - 45% (+1)

OK, this might be be a bad sample, but now, this something we want to watch.  If this continues into the Wednesday numbers, the race has gotten tighter.

[Person Man]

Sunday - August 17, 2008

Obama - 45% (nc)
McCain - 45% (+1)

OK, this might be be a bad sample, but now, this something we want to watch.  If this continues into the Wednesday numbers, the race has gotten tighter.

Sunday - August 17, 2008


I wonder why... Obama seems to be raising twice as much money...

[J. J.]

Sunday - August 17, 2008

Obama - 45% (nc)
McCain - 45% (+1)

OK, this might be be a bad sample, but now, this something we want to watch.  If this continues into the Wednesday numbers, the race has gotten tighter.

Sunday - August 17, 2008


I wonder why... Obama seems to be raising twice as much money...

You screwed up the post, but raising money is not an accurate measure of who will win.

[Rowan]

Sunday - August 17, 2008

Obama - 45% (nc)
McCain - 45% (+1)

OK, this might be be a bad sample, but now, this something we want to watch.  If this continues into the Wednesday numbers, the race has gotten tighter.

Sunday - August 17, 2008


I wonder why... Obama seems to be raising twice as much money...

You screwed up the post, but raising money is not an accurate measure of who will win.

You screwed it up too.(And apparently so did I)

[RJ]

OK, this might be be a bad sample, but now, this something we want to watch.  If this continues into the Wednesday numbers, the race has gotten tighter.

Maybe this "weekend bounce" just doesn't exist after all.

[Brittain33]

In keeping with the theme of Dems posting on good Gallup days for Obama, Republicans posting on good Gallup days for McCain:

Monday - August 18, 2008

Obama - 46% (+1)
McCain - 43% (-2)

[J. J.]

OK, this might be be a bad sample, but now, this something we want to watch.  If this continues into the Wednesday numbers, the race has gotten tighter.

Maybe this "weekend bounce" just doesn't exist after all.

As you can see from the most recent numbers, yes it does.

[RJ]

OK, this might be be a bad sample, but now, this something we want to watch.  If this continues into the Wednesday numbers, the race has gotten tighter.

Maybe this "weekend bounce" just doesn't exist after all.

As you can see from the most recent numbers, yes it does.

But Obama's lead is smaller according to today's data than it was Wednesday or Thursday of last week. That's according to Gallup.

[Alcon]

As you can see from the most recent numbers, yes it does.

This is a fallacious argument.  This is not a static race.  There is statistical noise, and there is actual movement.  As such, simply comparing one weekend sample to one weekday sample, and determining a causation from that, is spurious.

[Democratic Hawk]

Veterans Solidy Back McCain [19 August, 2008]

Prefer McCain to Obama by 56% to 34%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109654/Veterans-Solidly-Back-McCain.aspx

Candidate Choice Among Military Veterans

McCain: 56%
Obama: 34%
Other: 1%
No opinion: 10%

Party Affiliation

All U.S. adults: 37% Republican/Lean Republican; 48% Democratic/Lean Democratic

Military veterans: 47% Republican/Lean Republican; 39% Democratic/Lean Democratic

Candidate Vote Choice Based on Veteran Status Among Republicans/Republican-Leaners

Veteran: McCain 89%; Obama 6%

Non-veteran: McCain 83%; Obama 10%

Candidate Vote Choice Based on Veteran Status Among Democrarts/Demcratic-Leaners

Veteran: McCain 17%; Obama 75%

Non-veteran: McCain 11%; Obama 81%

Aug. 5-17 Gallup Poll Daily tracking

Dave

[J. J.]

As you can see from the most recent numbers, yes it does.

This is a fallacious argument.  This is not a static race.  There is statistical noise, and there is actual movement.  As such, simply comparing one weekend sample to one weekday sample, and determining a causation from that, is spurious.

Except the pattern seems to be there.  I think it is more of the function of the Gallup sampling technique than anything really happening in the race.

Alcon, I'm saying that "weekend bounce" is part of that "statistical noise."

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday - August 19, 2008[/b]

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+1)

The current status of the presidential race in many ways represents the "calm before the storm", as the two candidates gear up for one of the most intensive two weeks of campaigning in recent memory. The Democrats will begin with Obama's pending announcement of his vice presidential candidate, followed by the Democratic convention beginning next Monday in Denver. Then, in short order, the Republican John McCain will announce his vice presidential candidate and the GOP convention will get underway in St. Paul, Minn., on Sept. 1.

At the moment, the race has tightened slightly, with Obama holding on to slim one percentage point margin over McCain. Based on past history, Obama should expect a bounce from his vice presidential announcement this week and the convention next week. McCain, of course, should also expect a counter bounce thereafter, settings expectations for what may turn out to be some significant ups and downs in candidate support in the weeks to come.

[elcorazon]

this drop is one with a monday replacing a friday, so it really would have zero to do with any sort of weekend issues, I would say.  I just think the race is really close and polls tend to bounce a few points here and there and Sunday must've been quite a bit better than Thursday for Obama, while Monday was better than Friday for McCain... all by only a few points within the margin of error, actually.