Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday 18 June, 2008

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 42% (nc)

These results, based on June 15-17 interviewing, suggest that voter preferences are fairly stable at the moment -- Obama's lead has been four or five points in each of the last three individual nights of polling.

Obama has averaged a four percentage point advantage over McCain since Hillary Clinton decided to suspend her campaign, though in the immediate days after Clinton conceded the nomination Obama led by as much as seven points.

McCain has trailed Obama for most of June and last held a significant lead over him in May 21-25 polling. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Gallup Poll Daily tracking will not be conducted on Wednesday; the next update will appear on gallup.com on Friday.

[Democratic Hawk]

Forty Somethings May Hold Key to the Election (June 18, 2008)

Obama and McCain highly competitive among voters in their 40s

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108064/FortySomethings-May-Hold-Key-Election.aspx

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday 20 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

These results are based on interviewing conducted on June 16-17 and June 19. (Gallup did not conduct Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing on June 18.) Obama has had a higher share of the vote than McCain during most of June, with a margin ranging from one to seven percentage points. Friday's two-point edge for Obama is consistent with that general pattern, although at the narrower end of the range. In the broadest sense, the race between McCain and Obama has been close for months now, with McCain holding small leads over Obama in earlier months this spring prior to Obama's gaining his slight edge in recent weeks.

[Tender Branson]

Friday 20 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

These results are based on interviewing conducted on June 16-17 and June 19. (Gallup did not conduct Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing on June 18.) Obama has had a higher share of the vote than McCain during most of June, with a margin ranging from one to seven percentage points. Friday's two-point edge for Obama is consistent with that general pattern, although at the narrower end of the range. In the broadest sense, the race between McCain and Obama has been close for months now, with McCain holding small leads over Obama in earlier months this spring prior to Obama's gaining his slight edge in recent weeks.

Interesting:

A seperate USAToday/Gallup poll taken June 15-19 shows Obama leading by a wider margin.

Obama leads Republican John McCain by 48%-42% among registered voters in the survey, taken Sunday through Thursday. Among likely voters, Obama led McCain by 50%-44%.

Both contenders have largely solidified their standing among party regulars. Obama is backed by 84% of Democrats, McCain by 87% of Republicans; 9% of Democrats and 9% of Republicans defect to the other side.

Among independents — the group that usually determines election outcomes — Obama leads 48%-36%.

The poll shows sharp divisions between the two candidates along lines of sex, race and age:

• Women support Obama by 14 points while men back McCain by 3 points.

• Whites support McCain by 6 points while blacks almost unanimously back Obama, who is the first African-American to claim a major party's presidential nomination. Of 130 blacks surveyed, 129 support the Illinois senator.

• Young people back Obama while seniors support McCain. Among those 18 to 29 years old, Obama holds a better than 2-1 edge. Among those 65 and older, McCain leads, 49%-40%.

There were significant regional differences as well. McCain leads in the South, Obama on both the East and West coasts. In the battleground Midwest, Obama is ahead 48%-40%.

The survey of 1,625 adults — including 1,460 registered voters and 1,310 likely voters — has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-06-20-poll-friday_N.htm

[HockeyDude]

Friday 20 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

These results are based on interviewing conducted on June 16-17 and June 19. (Gallup did not conduct Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing on June 18.) Obama has had a higher share of the vote than McCain during most of June, with a margin ranging from one to seven percentage points. Friday's two-point edge for Obama is consistent with that general pattern, although at the narrower end of the range. In the broadest sense, the race between McCain and Obama has been close for months now, with McCain holding small leads over Obama in earlier months this spring prior to Obama's gaining his slight edge in recent weeks.

Interesting:

A seperate USAToday/Gallup poll taken June 15-19 shows Obama leading by a wider margin.

Obama leads Republican John McCain by 48%-42% among registered voters in the survey, taken Sunday through Thursday. Among likely voters, Obama led McCain by 50%-44%.

Both contenders have largely solidified their standing among party regulars. Obama is backed by 84% of Democrats, McCain by 87% of Republicans; 9% of Democrats and 9% of Republicans defect to the other side.

Among independents — the group that usually determines election outcomes — Obama leads 48%-36%.

The poll shows sharp divisions between the two candidates along lines of sex, race and age:

• Women support Obama by 14 points while men back McCain by 3 points.

• Whites support McCain by 6 points while blacks almost unanimously back Obama, who is the first African-American to claim a major party's presidential nomination. Of 130 blacks surveyed, 129 support the Illinois senator.

• Young people back Obama while seniors support McCain. Among those 18 to 29 years old, Obama holds a better than 2-1 edge. Among those 65 and older, McCain leads, 49%-40%.

There were significant regional differences as well. McCain leads in the South, Obama on both the East and West coasts. In the battleground Midwest, Obama is ahead 48%-40%.

The survey of 1,625 adults — including 1,460 registered voters and 1,310 likely voters — has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-06-20-poll-friday_N.htm

Wow, blacks might be almost unanimous. 

I think people are underestimating the bump he is going to get from them. 

[classical liberal]

Blacks were already almost unanimously Democrats.

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday 21 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

[Keystone Phil]

Saturday 21 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Obama is running away with this one!

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Saturday 21 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Obama is running away with this one!

Do you need to constantly post this comment?

[J. J.]

Saturday 21 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Obama is running away with this one!

Do you need to constantly post this comment?

It is a fair comment on the poll-obsessed, which includes me. 

[Keystone Phil]

Saturday 21 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Obama is running away with this one!

Do you need to constantly post this comment?

Yes, I do. I don't see the problem with pointing out Obama's landslide margin.

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday 22 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Cue Phil ... 1 ... 2 ... 3 ... 4

[Verily]

Saturday 22 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Cue Phil ... 1 ... 2 ... 3 ... 4

Gallup and Rasmussen seem to be back to their primary game of agreeing to disagree. When one has Obama's margin wide, the other has it narrow, and vice versa.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Saturday 22 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Cue Phil ... 1 ... 2 ... 3 ... 4

Gallup and Rasmussen seem to be back to their primary game of agreeing to disagree. When one has Obama's margin wide, the other has it narrow, and vice versa.

Uh,

Neither Gallup nor Rasmussen has had a "wide" margin for Obama (a wide margin would be on the order of the ludicrous Princeton Associates poll).

Both Gallup and Rasmussen have had Obama consistently in the lead by between two to six points.

The problem here is how you handle respondents who really haven't made up their minds.

If you look below the toplines you will find that the softness in McCain's support is rather high, especially when compared to Obama.

So, pushing "leaner's" at this point will result in better number for McCain than is actually the true story.

[Verily]

Saturday 22 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Cue Phil ... 1 ... 2 ... 3 ... 4

Gallup and Rasmussen seem to be back to their primary game of agreeing to disagree. When one has Obama's margin wide, the other has it narrow, and vice versa.

Uh,

Neither Gallup nor Rasmussen has had a "wide" margin for Obama (a wide margin would be on the order of the ludicrous Princeton Associates poll).

Both Gallup and Rasmussen have had Obama consistently in the lead by between two to six points.

The problem here is how you handle respondents who really haven't made up their minds.

If you look below the toplines you will find that the softness in McCain's support is rather high, especially when compared to Obama.

So, pushing "leaner's" at this point will result in better number for McCain than is actually the true story.

You would be incorrect. Rasmussen has Obama leading by seven points today. Rasmussen pushes leaners and finds that the margin stays the same pushed and unpushed. In any case, my definitions of "wide" and "narrow" are "outside of margin of error" and "within margin of error". In other words, more than three points is wide, less than three points is narrow. Fifteen points is absurd.

You, quite simply, are a moron. And I will not be drawn into a pointless debate in which you constantly lie and distort, as has happened to Alcon in the other tracking poll thread.

[Tender Branson]

Saturday 22 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Cue Phil ... 1 ... 2 ... 3 ... 4

Gallup and Rasmussen seem to be back to their primary game of agreeing to disagree. When one has Obama's margin wide, the other has it narrow, and vice versa.

Uh,

Neither Gallup nor Rasmussen has had a "wide" margin for Obama (a wide margin would be on the order of the ludicrous Princeton Associates poll).

Both Gallup and Rasmussen have had Obama consistently in the lead by between two to six points.

The problem here is how you handle respondents who really haven't made up their minds.

If you look below the toplines you will find that the softness in McCain's support is rather high, especially when compared to Obama.

So, pushing "leaner's" at this point will result in better number for McCain than is actually the true story.

I´ve also read somewhere that Obama is doing better among polls that include "Likely Voters" rather than "Registered Voters", compared with Kerry in 2004, who did better among "Registered Voters" ... I don´t know how much of this is true.

[Prez Duke]

This election is over! Obama 08!

[CARLHAYDEN]

Saturday 22 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Cue Phil ... 1 ... 2 ... 3 ... 4

Gallup and Rasmussen seem to be back to their primary game of agreeing to disagree. When one has Obama's margin wide, the other has it narrow, and vice versa.

Uh,

Neither Gallup nor Rasmussen has had a "wide" margin for Obama (a wide margin would be on the order of the ludicrous Princeton Associates poll).

Both Gallup and Rasmussen have had Obama consistently in the lead by between two to six points.

The problem here is how you handle respondents who really haven't made up their minds.

If you look below the toplines you will find that the softness in McCain's support is rather high, especially when compared to Obama.

So, pushing "leaner's" at this point will result in better number for McCain than is actually the true story.

I´ve also read somewhere that Obama is doing better among polls that include "Likely Voters" rather than "Registered Voters", compared with Kerry in 2004, who did better among "Registered Voters" ... I don´t know how much of this is true.

Well lets look at the actual polls,

Organization     Last polling date     Obama     McCain     Spread

                                                Registered voters

Gallup                        6/20                    46           44              2
Opinion Dynamics      6/18                    45           41              4
RTS (Cook)                 6/15                    44           40              4

Average                                                45           42              3

                                                    Likely voters

Gallup                         6/19                   50            44             6
Rasmussen                 6/21                   49            42             7
Zogby                         6/14                   47            42             5

Average                                                49            43             6

So, based on this information it would appear that Obama does indeed do better among likely voters.

A caveat is how the survey research firm determines "likely voters."  One method is historical, i.e. has the respondent participated in the past, a second method is "intensity," and a third method is a "blend" of the two methods.  In my experience, the "blend" method is best proved it gives more weight to historical than intensity.

Also, please note that (as expected) the undecided vote is smaller among likely voters than among registered voters.

[J. J.]

My guess is a 3-5 point race.

[Democratic Hawk]

Election Enthusiasm Dips After Primaries [June 23, 2008]

Democrats maintain an edge over Republicans

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108322/Election-Enthusiasm-Dips-After-Primaries.aspx#1

All registered voters

48% are more enthusiastic

37% are less enthusiastic

14% feel about the same

By Party Affiliation

61% of Democrats and Democratic-leaners are more enthusiastic

35% of Republicans and Republican-leaners are more enthusiastic

GALLUP POLL June 15-19

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday 23 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (-1)

These results are based on June 20-22 polling, and match the average three percentage point advantage held by Obama for the past week.

Obama received a rather short-lived bump in support right after he clinched the nomination, with his lead over McCain stretching to as much as seven points. Since then, voter preferences have been quite stable, with Obama maintaining a slight edge.

Relatively stable voter preferences at this point in the campaign would not be unexpected, as the intensity of the campaign has died down since the primary process concluded. Obama and McCain continue to make speeches and campaign almost daily to attempt to keep themselves in the news, however, the next major events in the campaign will likely be the candidates' selections of their vice presidential running mates later this summer.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Election Enthusiasm Dips After Primaries [June 23, 2008]

Democrats maintain an edge over Republicans

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108322/Election-Enthusiasm-Dips-After-Primaries.aspx#1

All registered voters

48% are more enthusiastic

37% are less enthusiastic

14% feel about the same

By Party Affiliation

61% of Democrats and Democratic-leaners are more enthusiastic

35% of Republicans and Republican-leaners are more enthusiastic

GALLUP POLL June 15-19

Dave

Let me amplify, by compring the data from March of 2004 with that of June 2008.

                    More enthusiastic     Less enthusiastic     Same
                    Rs          Ds               Rs          Ds               Rs          Ds

2008            35          61               51          32               13         13

2004            52          51               27          35               20         13

Change      -17        +10             +24          - 3              - 7           0

So, while there has been a modest increase in Democrat enthsiasm over the past four years based on this data, there has been a dramatic drop in Republican enthusiasm over the same period.

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Has Edge on Key Election Issues [June 24, 2008]

Better positioned than McCain on top two issues - gas prices and the economy

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108331/Obama-Has-Edge-Key-Election-Issues.aspx

If you had to choose, who do you think would do a better job on [issue]. [ROTATED]?

Healthcare (41%)*: Obama 51%; McCain 26%
The economy (49%): Obama 48%; McCain 32%
Energy, including gas prices (51%): Obama 47%; McCain 28%
Taxes (34%): Obama 44%; McCain 35%
The situation in Iraq (44%): Obama 43%; McCain 43%
Moral values (34%): Obama 40%; McCain 39%
Illegal immigration (27%): Obama 34%; McCain 36%
Terrorism (41%): Obama 33%; McCain 52%

* % citing issue as being extremely importaint in influencing their vote

USA Today/Gallup, June 15-19, 2008

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday 24 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (nc)

[Wiz from Wis in Mass]

Tuesday 24 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (nc)

All hands... steady as she goes.