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Author Topic: Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]  (Read 180823 times)
Democratic Hawk
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« on: June 05, 2008, 07:48:12 pm »
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An Early Gallup Road Map to the McCain-Obama Matchup (June 4, 2008)

Obama's appeal to young, highly educated apparent in general election

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107689/Early-Gallup-Road-Map-McCainObama-Matchup.aspx

This data was compiled May 1-31; showing how things stand between McCain vs Obama among a number of demographics.

Notes: 1) Bush vs Kerry, 2004 in paranthesis [ ]. 2) [-]denotes incomparable data from 2004 exit poll. 3) Bold denotes net gain on 2004


Gender

Men: McCain 49 [55]; Obama 43 [44]
Women: McCain 42 [48]; Obama 48 [51]

Age

18-29: McCain 36 [45]; Obama 59 [54]
30-49: McCain 46 [-]; Obama 46 [-]
50-64: McCain 47 [-]; Obama 44 [-]
65+: McCain 50 [-]; Obama 38 [-]

Race

White: McCain 53 [58]; Obama 38 [41]
Blacks: McCain 4 [11]; Obama 90 [88]
Hispanics: McCain 29 [44]; Obama 62 [53]

Education

High school or less: McCain 46 [52]; Obama 43 [48]
Some college: McCain 47 [54]; Obama 45 [46]
College graduate: McCain 47 [52]; Obama 47 [46]
Postgraduate: McCain 41 [44]; Obama 54 [55]

Income (monthly)

Under $2000: McCain 36 [-]; Obama 53 [-]
$2000 - $4999: McCain 46 [-]; Obama 46 [-]
$5000 - $7499: McCain 50 [-]; Obama 44 [-]
$7500 or more: McCain 49 [-]; Obama 45 [-]

Region

East: McCain 40 [43]; Obama 50 [56]
Midwest: McCain 43 [51]; Obama 47 [48]
South: McCain 52 [58]; Obama 39 [42]
West: McCain 43 [49]; Obama 50 [50]

Party Identification

Democrat: McCain 15 [11]; Obama 76 [89]
Independent: McCain 45 [48]; Obama 43 [49]
Republican: McCain 85 [93]; Obama 10 [6]

Ideology

Liberal: McCain 14 [13]; Obama 80 [85]
Moderate: McCain 38 [45]; Obama 50 [54]
Conservative: McCain 69 [84]; Obama 23 [15]

Religiosity

Weekly: McCain 55 [61]; Obama 36 [39]
Nearly weekly/Monthly: McCain 46 [47]; Obama 46 [53]
Seldom/Never: McCain 37 (36); Obama 53 [62]

Religious Preference

Protestant/Other Christian: McCain 51 [59]; Obama 41 [40]
Catholic: McCain 46 [52]; Obama 45 [47]
Jewish: McCain 35 [23]; Obama 57 [74]
None: McCain 26 [31]; Obama 66 [67]

Marital Status

Married: McCain 52 [57]; Obama 39 [42]
Not married: McCain 35 [40]; Obama 55 [58]

Red vs Blue State

Bush state won by 6+ points: McCain 52 [-]; Obama 39 [-]
Margin of victory 5 points or less: McCain 44 [-]; Obama 47 [-]
Kerry state won by 6+ points: McCain 39 [-]; Obama 53 [-]

Dave
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Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

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« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2008, 07:50:01 pm »
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Well, I like those hispanic numbers.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2008, 08:02:20 pm »
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Thursday June 5, 2008

Obama - 45%
McCain - 45%

Obama/Clinton - 50%
McCain - 45%
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Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

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« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2008, 08:18:39 pm »
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Nice showing with Independents and even Dems.
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The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
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« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2008, 08:19:48 pm »
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Those Hispanic numbers can't possibly be right can they?
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2008, 08:32:40 pm »
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Those Hispanic numbers can't possibly be right can they?

In the 2006 national exit poll, Hispanics voted Democratic 69 to 30

Dave
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Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

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« Reply #6 on: June 06, 2008, 06:09:36 pm »
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Thursday June 5, 2008

Obama - 45%
McCain - 45%

Obama/Clinton - 50%
McCain - 45%

Oh lord... must we start this?
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #7 on: June 06, 2008, 08:35:05 pm »
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Friday June 6, 2008

Obama - 46% (+1)
McCain - 45% (-)
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« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2008, 01:19:24 am »
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I'm so disappointed in those Jewish numbers. I really don't know what to say. I know Jews aren't racist, but the excuse for my fellow Jews is, "He isn't trustworthy, he doesn't support Israel enough!" ugh. One more demographic the Democrats have lost....
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2008, 01:21:23 am »
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I know Jews aren't racist

What the hell does that mean? "I know Jews aren't racist but those Catholics..."
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2008, 08:53:23 am »
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I'm so disappointed in those Jewish numbers. I really don't know what to say. I know Jews aren't racist, but the excuse for my fellow Jews is, "He isn't trustworthy, he doesn't support Israel enough!" ugh. One more demographic the Democrats have lost....

Obama is leading among Jews, 57 to 35, I've only emboldened McCain's % because it is an improvement on the support Bush received among Jews in 2004

As the campaign progresses, Obama may yet increase his support among Jews. These figures for May and, thus, pre-his speech at AIPAC

Dave
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« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2008, 09:47:39 am »
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The key numbers I'm interested in are Latinos and women.
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« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2008, 11:22:28 am »
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I'm so disappointed in those Jewish numbers. I really don't know what to say. I know Jews aren't racist, but the excuse for my fellow Jews is, "He isn't trustworthy, he doesn't support Israel enough!" ugh. One more demographic the Democrats have lost....

I don't think we have to worry.  The Jewish voters will come back to Obama.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #13 on: June 07, 2008, 12:13:14 pm »
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Saturday June 7, 2008

Obama - 46% (-)
McCain - 45% (-)
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Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

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« Reply #14 on: June 07, 2008, 12:36:32 pm »
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I'm so disappointed in those Jewish numbers. I really don't know what to say. I know Jews aren't racist, but the excuse for my fellow Jews is, "He isn't trustworthy, he doesn't support Israel enough!" ugh. One more demographic the Democrats have lost....

The reason for this animosity is racism ... but it's not the Jews who are being racist.
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« Reply #15 on: June 07, 2008, 01:03:50 pm »
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I'm so disappointed in those Jewish numbers. I really don't know what to say. I know Jews aren't racist, but the excuse for my fellow Jews is, "He isn't trustworthy, he doesn't support Israel enough!" ugh. One more demographic the Democrats have lost....

The reason for this animosity is racism ... but it's not the Jews who are being racist.

I don't really understand what you are trying to say.

I think some Jews will come to support Obama, but I've talked to some Jewish friends and many think that Obama = end of Israel.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #16 on: June 07, 2008, 01:27:02 pm »
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I know Jews aren't racist

What the hell does that mean? "I know Jews aren't racist but those Catholics..."

Just to make sure people don't assume that because they are White and they hate Obama that it isn't because of race (I hope). Catholics on the other hand are not racist at all, otherwise they aren't Democrats. Most Catholics in the Dem primaries were Hispanics who just liked Clinton. Half my family is Catholic and they all like Obama (although they are all from Hawaii). Hopefully you understand what I'm trying to get across here.

Wow, you just keep digging here. "Catholics...are not racist at all, otherwise they aren't Democrats."

Do you like living in ignorance?

If Jews and Catholics obviously aren't racist, who is? Methodists? Lutherans? Grouping people by saying the whole group obviously isn't racist is as ignorant and wrong as someone saying, "Well, blacks are obviously the criminals."
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« Reply #17 on: June 07, 2008, 02:53:57 pm »
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I know Jews aren't racist

What the hell does that mean? "I know Jews aren't racist but those Catholics..."

Just to make sure people don't assume that because they are White and they hate Obama that it isn't because of race (I hope). Catholics on the other hand are not racist at all, otherwise they aren't Democrats. Most Catholics in the Dem primaries were Hispanics who just liked Clinton. Half my family is Catholic and they all like Obama (although they are all from Hawaii). Hopefully you understand what I'm trying to get across here.

Wow, you just keep digging here. "Catholics...are not racist at all, otherwise they aren't Democrats."

Do you like living in ignorance?

If Jews and Catholics obviously aren't racist, who is? Methodists? Lutherans? Grouping people by saying the whole group obviously isn't racist is as ignorant and wrong as someone saying, "Well, blacks are obviously the criminals."

I think this whole racism angle has really been overplayed and overemphasized this election, not only within the mainstream media, but also on this board as well.

Hillary's huge win in Kentucky and West Virginia, and moderate victory in Pennsylvania had little to do with any kind of overt racism on the part of white working-class voters. There are many other factors at work shaping voters behavior, and attempts to explain this based predominately on race seems simplistic at best.

McCain may well perform better amongst Jews than Bush for a variety of reasons, one being that McCain is not seen as wedded to the evangelical Christian wing of the Republican party, and national security may be another to a lesser degree. I'm sure the Wright affair has not helped, but there is still a long way to go before November, and at the end of the day I would be surprised to see McCain do much better than 30% amongst Jewish voters.
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« Reply #18 on: June 07, 2008, 03:04:44 pm »
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Nice job Dave!

With respect to McCain:

First, as I have repeatedly tried to tell everyone, the supposed link between favoring amnesty for illegal aliens and getting support from legal hispanic voters in this country is spurious. 

Second, the support level from Republicans is near a historic low!

Third, the level of support from conservatives is lower than I have seem for any Republican party nominee for President is lower than I have seen it since such data has been collected.
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« Reply #19 on: June 08, 2008, 12:15:24 pm »
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Sunday June 8, 2008

Obama - 46% (-)
McCain - 44% (-1)
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« Reply #20 on: June 08, 2008, 12:17:03 pm »
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Sunday June 8, 2008

Obama - 46% (-)
McCain - 44% (-1)

Gallup's analysis:

"Within the current five-day rolling average, Obama has exceeded McCain by a fair margin in each of the last three individual nights of Gallup polling, all conducted since Hillary Clinton announced she would be ending her bid for the Democratic nomination. It appears that her exit decision had the immediate effect of releasing some of her supporters to back Obama in the general election. If this continues in interviews conducted Sunday, Obama should have a clear lead over McCain in Monday's release."
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« Reply #21 on: June 08, 2008, 04:48:48 pm »
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Sunday June 8, 2008

Obama - 46% (-)
McCain - 44% (-1)

Gallup's analysis:

"Within the current five-day rolling average, Obama has exceeded McCain by a fair margin in each of the last three individual nights of Gallup polling, all conducted since Hillary Clinton announced she would be ending her bid for the Democratic nomination. It appears that her exit decision had the immediate effect of releasing some of her supporters to back Obama in the general election. If this continues in interviews conducted Sunday, Obama should have a clear lead over McCain in Monday's release."

Fantastic. So much for Democratic disunity (let's hope anyway)...
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« Reply #22 on: June 08, 2008, 08:59:35 pm »
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Love those hispanic numbers. If Obama is winning 62-63% of the hispanic vote he is most probably winning the election. Another milestone for him would be at least  41% of the white vote, which he is only 3% away from. Mccain is doing worse compared to Bush amongst whites than Obama is.
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« Reply #23 on: June 09, 2008, 01:09:17 pm »
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Monday June 9, 2008

Obama - 48% (+2)
McCain - 42% (-2)

Obama has consistently held a lead of five to seven percentage points each night since it was reported that Hillary Clinton intended to suspend her campaign. These represent Obama's strongest showing versus McCain to date in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of registered voters' presidential election preferences. For much of the time since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in mid-March, McCain and Obama have been in a statistical dead heat.

Today's data are based on June 6-8 interviewing. Gallup had been reporting a five-day rolling average for the general election to this point, but now that the major party candidates are known Gallup will move to reporting a three-day rolling average. Obama would still hold a statistically significant lead (matching his best to date) in the five-day rolling average based on June 4-8 interviewing given his recent stronger performance.


Obama/Clinton: 51%
McCain: 42%
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« Reply #24 on: June 09, 2008, 05:58:53 pm »
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Sorry, I wrote my comments late at night.... I really tried to explain it, but whatever.

My point is that among Democrats racism is not really an issue. And I really misworded my comments on Catholics. I truly did not mean to offend anyone, but I am really offended at being labeled ignorant. Until this year, I thought America had gotten over racism, but from the exit polls it seems like there is still a lot of it on the East Coast.

When I reread my comment, I was quite shocked, so please ignore it! I really don't believe that!
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