Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I wish they would stop polling Obama/Clintron vs. McCain. I really don't care.

[NOVA Green]

Sorry, I wrote my comments late at night.... I really tried to explain it, but whatever.

My point is that among Democrats racism is not really an issue. And I really misworded my comments on Catholics. I truly did not mean to offend anyone, but I am really offended at being labeled ignorant. Until this year, I thought America had gotten over racism, but from the exit polls it seems like there is still a lot of it on the East Coast.

When I reread my comment, I was quite shocked, so please ignore it! I really don't believe that!

Some of the exit polls looked ugly, and they disturbed me as well...

Maybe I'm naive, but I have to believe that this is less than 5% of the American people that vote overtly on skin tone. George Wallace did all right in '68, even in many Northern states, but I would like to believe the possible fantasy that America is in 2008 a post-race era. For the future of our nation, I hope so anyways....

[Stranger in a strange land]

Sorry, I wrote my comments late at night.... I really tried to explain it, but whatever.

My point is that among Democrats racism is not really an issue. And I really misworded my comments on Catholics. I truly did not mean to offend anyone, but I am really offended at being labeled ignorant. Until this year, I thought America had gotten over racism, but from the exit polls it seems like there is still a lot of it on the East Coast.

When I reread my comment, I was quite shocked, so please ignore it! I really don't believe that!

Some of the exit polls looked ugly, and they disturbed me as well...

Maybe I'm naive, but I have to believe that this is less than 5% of the American people that vote overtly on skin tone. George Wallace did all right in '68, even in many Northern states, but I would like to believe the possible fantasy that America is in 2008 a post-race era. For the future of our nation, I hope so anyways....

post-race, no. But race matters today far less than it has at any point in our history. That said, it still matters a great deal.

[Gustaf]

Sorry, I wrote my comments late at night.... I really tried to explain it, but whatever.

My point is that among Democrats racism is not really an issue. And I really misworded my comments on Catholics. I truly did not mean to offend anyone, but I am really offended at being labeled ignorant. Until this year, I thought America had gotten over racism, but from the exit polls it seems like there is still a lot of it on the East Coast.

When I reread my comment, I was quite shocked, so please ignore it! I really don't believe that!

Some of the exit polls looked ugly, and they disturbed me as well...

Maybe I'm naive, but I have to believe that this is less than 5% of the American people that vote overtly on skin tone. George Wallace did all right in '68, even in many Northern states, but I would like to believe the possible fantasy that America is in 2008 a post-race era. For the future of our nation, I hope so anyways....

post-race, no. But race matters today far less than it has at any point in our history. That said, it still matters a great deal.

The number of people in America who are violently racist in a "I could never for a black guy because he's, yuck, black" way is probably pretty low. The number who feel threatened by people like Wright or Jackson and are afraid of black gangs, etc is much higher. Obama's strength originally was that he wasn't triggering the second group. Post-Wright, etc, he is.

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday June 10, 2008

Obama - 48% (nc)
McCain - 41% (-1)

Voting preferences have been fairly stable over the last three individual days of tracking polling, all conducted since Hillary Clinton officially suspended her candidacy and publicly endorsed Obama for president on Saturday.

The seven percentage point advantage is Obama's largest to date since Gallup began tracking the general election in March. In turn, McCain has led Obama by as many as six percentage points in early May.

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Gains Among Women After Clinton Exit (June 11, 2008)

Now running as strongly vs. McCain among women as Clinton did

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107806/Obama-Gains-Among-Women-After-Clinton-Exit.aspx

Vote Preference in the General Election Presidential Election, by Gender and Marital Status

Gallup Daily Tracking, June 5 - 9, 2008 [changes on previous week]

Married men: McCain 53% (-2); Obama 39% (+1)

Married women: McCain 45% (-7); Obama 45% (+5)

Unmarried men: McCain 35% (-4); Obama 57% (+3)

Unmarried women: McCain 31% (-1); Obama 57% (-)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday June 11, 2008

Obama - 48% (nc)
McCain - 42% (+1)

This marks the third consecutive day that Obama has held a significant lead, as he enjoys a modest boost in support following Hillary Clinton's decision to concede the nomination. Obama's six and seven percentage point advantages over McCain in recent days have been his best to date. Obama has held significant leads over McCain at other points since mid-March (when Gallup first began tracking general election preferences), but for the most part the two candidates have been locked in statistical dead heats.

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday June 12, 2008

Heavy storms and tornadoes shut down Gallup interviewing centers in Omaha and Lincoln, Neb., Wednesday night, as a result Gallup will not be publishing new Gallup Poll Daily tracking results Thursday, June 12. The next report will be Friday, June 13.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Thursday June 12, 2008

Heavy storms and tornadoes shut down Gallup interviewing centers in Omaha and Lincoln, Neb., Wednesday night, as a result Gallup will not be publishing new Gallup Poll Daily tracking results Thursday, June 12. The next report will be Friday, June 13.

Lame excuse.

[Democratic Hawk]

Large Democratic Base Provides Big Advantage for Obama (June 12, 2008)

Over half of Americans identify as or lean toward being Democratic

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107842/Large-Democratic-Base-Provides-Big-Advantage-Obama.aspx

Party identification , June 5-10, 2008

Republicans 28%; Independents/Other/Don't Know 34%; Democrats 37%

Among Independents: 11% Lean Republican; 8% are 'pure' Independents; 15% Lean Democratic

Presidential General Election, by Party I/D

Republicans (28%): McCain 85%; Obama 10%
Independents (34%): McCain 39%; Obama 46%
Democrats (37%): McCain 14%; Obama 78%

Lean Republican (11%): McCain 81%; Obama 11%
'Pure' Independents (8%): McCain 35%; Obama 26%
Lean Democratic (15%): McCain 10%; Obama 83% [actually more pro-Obama than 'core' Democrats]

Republicans plus leaners (39%): McCain 84%; Obama 10%
'Pure' Independents, no leaners (8%): McCain 35%; Obama 26%
Democrats plus leaners (52%): McCain 13%; Obama 80%

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday June 13, 2008

Obama - 46% (-2)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Although Obama's three percentage point advantage is statistically significant, it is down from the 6- to 7-point leads he had in Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.

According to the latest results, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews from June 9-10 and 12, a sizeable 10% of national registered voters are either undecided between the two major party candidates for president (4%), or say they will not vote for either (6%). This is the highest uncommitted percentage Gallup has seen since it launched daily tracking of an Obama vs. McCain race in early March. (The average across this time period is 8%.) Additionally, a consistent 1% volunteer they will vote for a different candidate.

[Democratic Hawk]

Religious Americans Prefer McCain Over Obama (June 13, 2008)

Preference is especially stronger among white Americans

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107989/Religious-Americans-Prefer-McCain-Over-Obama.aspx

"Is religion an important part of your daily life?"

Yes (64%): Obama 42%; McCain 47%

No (35%): Obama 58%; McCain 33%

Among non-Hispanic whites:

Important (62%): Obama 32%; McCain 57%

Not important (37%): Obama 54%; McCain 38%

McCain leads Obama among whites, 49% to 40%

Gallup Daily Tracking, June 5-10, 2008

Dave

[King]

Friday June 13, 2008

Obama - 46% (-2)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Could the bump be over?

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday June 14, 2008

Obama 45% (-1)
McCain 42% (-1)

[Ronnie]

Hmm, so is the Obama bounce winding down?  Let's see.

[J. J.]

I've though that starting tomorrow, we'll start seeing less "bumped" numbers.  The next 3-4 days show the difference.

[Umengus]

Compared to his score 2 weeks ago, the Mc cain score is weak (in gallup and rasmussen). I don't know why.

[Democratic Hawk]

Compared to his score 2 weeks ago, the Mc cain score is weak (in gallup and rasmussen). I don't know why.

You sound disappointed Umengus?

[Democratic Hawk]

And looking at Gallup, before any much longer it's going to be my turn

Sunday 15 June, 2008

Obama - 44% (-1)
McCain - 42% (nc)

Dave

[Sam Spade]

The move towards undecided is coming from two different areas..  Maybe I'll discuss it later. 

But it's to be expected - voter opinions about this election are far from hardened yet.  And it's quite possible that very little happens in the next two months to change this, since:

1. The conventions are very late.
2. There is almost always (in the modern era) a respite period in between the primary and the general elections where things settle down before throttling up again.

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday 16 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (+2)
McCain - 42% (nc)

The latest release, based on June 13-15 interviewing with over 2,600 registered voters nationwide, shows Obama regaining a statistically significant lead over McCain. Over the weekend, the race was slightly closer, but Obama still held an advantage. Obama has led by as many as seven percentage points since Hillary Clinton decided to abandon her presidential bid earlier this month.

[Keystone Phil]

Obama - 46% (+2)
McCain - 42% (nc)

Landslide Obama

[Alaska Thunderfvck]

Obama - 46% (+2)
McCain - 42% (nc)

Landslide Obama

No...but hes still leading

[Sam Spade]

Today was the removal of a strong McCain sample and Obama only bounced back to the 4% lead, not the 6% one he had last week - that's the classic sign of tracking poll movement.  We'll see whether it continues, holds steady or moves back...

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday 17 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 42% (nc)