Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Just bumping around...  The real Gallup numbers are probably still around Obama +2 to +3%, as they have been for a few weeks now.

So you don't think the 'attacks' on McCain's military service as a qualification to be president are having any impact?

Dave

[Sam Spade]

Just bumping around...  The real Gallup numbers are probably still around Obama +2 to +3%, as they have been for a few weeks now.

So you don't think the 'attacks' on McCain's military service as a qualification to be president are having any impact?

Dave

No.  I think everyone's tuned out right now.  Wait until mid-August or so.

[J. J.]

Maybe a 4-5 point race tightening slightly.  Ask me in a fortnight. 

[agcatter]

I don't think anything is having an effect right now.  No one is paying attention and the numbers bouncing around are mostly noise.

Pretty well frozen nationally at Obama + 4.

[MasterJedi]

I don't think anything is having an effect right now.  No one is paying attention and the numbers bouncing around are mostly noise.

Pretty well frozen nationally at Obama + 4.

And it will probably stay that way except for a short time when the VP's are chosen and then finally get some real action happening when the conventions start.

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 43% (-1)

As would be expected from any methodology involving repeated sampling from a large population, there have been slight fluctuations in the daily reports of Gallup Poll Daily tracking rolling averages (each based on three days worth of interviewing of over 2,500 registered voters), but little indication for weeks now of substantive change in the structure of the race. The preferences of registered voters between the two major party candidates remain closely divided, with Obama usually polling within a few percentage points of 46%, and McCain polling within a few points of 43%.

Gallup will conduct interviews Thursday, July 3, but will not interview on July 4. The report on the three-day rolling average for Tuesday through Thursday will be posted on gallup.com on Saturday, July 5.

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday, July 5, 2008

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 42% (-1)

Today's three-day rolling average is based on interviewing from July 1-3, 2008. About 5% of voters say they will not vote for either major party candidate while an additional 6% are undecided.

Except for a brief period a week ago when McCain and Obama were tied in voter preference, Obama has had the slight upper hand in the race since Gallup's June 6 report, leading McCain by one to seven percentage points. The last time McCain had any numerical advantage over Obama was in Gallup's June 5 report when he was one percentage point ahead, 46% to 45%. However, the last time McCain had a statistically significant lead was in early May.

Gallup did not conduct daily tracking interviewing on the July 4 holiday. Thus, tomorrow's report will be based on interviews conducted July 2-3 and July 5.

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Obama - 48% (+1)
McCain - 42% (nc)

Today's three-day rolling average is based on interviewing conducted in the two days before the July 4 holiday, July 2-3, and Saturday, July 5 (no interviewing was conducted on July 4). About 5% of voters say they will not vote for either major party candidate while an additional 6% are undecided.

News organizations over the last several days have given extensive play to the precise wording of various Obama statements concerning what he would do regarding withdrawal of troops from Iraq were he to be elected president. So far, there is little sign in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking that this has made a difference in the preferences of registered voters. Of course, it is to be expected that voters' attention is turned elsewhere over a holiday weekend, so a major shift in the standing of the two candidates would be an unusual occurrence. Until the vice presidential nominees are announced and/or the Democratic convention begins in late August, the twin efforts of the campaigns to influence voter perceptions of the race and of the news media to find something new and compelling to say about the race will be competing for what could be sparse voter attention.

[Aizen]

barack obama is completely unstoppable

[Eraserhead]

Economic distress is dissolving American racism.

[exopolitician]

Obama "refining" his Iraq Policy doesnt seem to be having an affect [either way] on his numbers...with the media pounding away at it im kinda surprised.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Obama "refining" his Iraq Policy doesnt seem to be having an affect [either way] on his numbers...with the media pounding away at it im kinda surprised.

The media is doing everything they can to get John McCain elected... and Obama still leads by 5+ points?

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday, July 7, 2008

Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Interviews for this latest three-day rolling average were conducted July 3 and 5-6. Obama's four-point advantage over McCain matches his average over the past week.

Obama has held the upper hand in voter preferences over the last month for all but three days, with his lead reaching as much as seven percentage points. This essentially spans the time since Obama wrapped up the Democratic nomination.

McCain enjoyed a similar run in March after he clinched the GOP nomination, maintaining at least a slim numerical advantage for 19 consecutive days, though only by as many as four points during this time.

[Democratic Hawk]

Religious Intensity Predicts Support for McCain [8 July, 2008]

Hispanic Catholics and black Protestants provide notable exceptions

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108688/Religious-Intensity-Predicts-Support-McCain.aspx

Is religion important in your life? Who do you support in the presidential election?

Religion is important in my life (about two-thirds): Obama 40%; McCain 50%
Religion is NOT important in my life (about one-third) : Obama 55%; McCain 36%

Among non-Hispanic whites who are Protestants/non-Catholic Christians:

Important: Obama 27%; McCain 63%
NOT important: Obama 45%; McCain 46%

Among non-Hispanic white Catholics:

Important: Obama 37%; McCain 53%
NOT important: Obama 47%; McCain 45%

Among white Hispanic Catholics:

Important: Obama 57%; McCain 31%
NOT important: Obama 63%; McCain 30%

Among black non-Catholic Christians:

Important: Obama 90%; McCain 4%
NOT important: Obama 92%; McCain 4%

Among Jewish Americans:

Important: Obama 45%; McCain 45%
NOT important: Obama 68%; McCain 26%

Among those of other, non-Christian and non-Jewish religions:

Important: Obama 60%; McCain 30%
NOT important: Obama 68%; McCain 23%

Among those not identifying with a religion:

Important: Obama 61%; McCain 28%
NOT important (89%): Obama 65%; McCain 26%

Aggregate of Gallup Polls, March to June 2008

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+1)

Obama's lead has been as great as seven percentage points over the past month, but has averaged only three points thus far in July, identical to his average lead for the month of June.

The fact that Obama has consistently held an advantage over McCain among registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since early June suggests that he could very well win the election were it held today (depending on voter turnout patterns). The important question, however, and one addressed in detail Monday on Gallup.com, is whether his consistently narrow lead at this point in mid-summer bodes well for him in November.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108676/July-Leader-Lost-Last-Competitive-US-Elections.aspx

In essence, the Gallup analysis finds that races that appear closely contested at the start of the summer tend to stay close for the duration of the campaign, up to and including Election Day. This describes the 2004, 2000, 1980, and 1960 elections.

The exceptions to this are years when, after being closely matched in early to mid-July, one of the candidates jumps into the lead following his party's national convention over the summer. In these cases -- including Bill Clinton in 1992, George H.W. Bush in 1988, and Richard Nixon in 1968 -- the candidate getting the big boost out of his convention ultimately won.

Come on Barack get that boost at Denver

[Tender Branson]

Meh, another Pro-McCain sample on the way of passing through ...

[Sam Spade]

just more bumping around - the race has not fundamentally changed at all, and probably will not change for another month.

[agcatter]

Amazingly stable thru the summer.  A 4 to 5 point race since the ist part of June.  Not even worth looking at the tracking polls until the conventions.  There will be no change.

[Alcon]

Amazingly stable thru the summer.  A 4 to 5 point race since the ist part of June.  Not even worth looking at the tracking polls until the conventions.  There will be no change.

Don't you keep saying that you're done with tracking polls? 

I think we're both having the same problem.

[Reaganfan]

I can't believe McCain has been asleep and the race is essentially tied.

[Lief 🗽]

I can't believe McCain has been asleep and the race is essentially tied.

It's really not.

[agcatter]

Alcon, I have to admit I can't help glancing at them.

I need help.

[Reaganfan]

I can't believe McCain has been asleep and the race is essentially tied.

It's really not.

Of course it is, can't you read? Obama should be ahead by 15-20 pts.

[Lief 🗽]

I can't believe McCain has been asleep and the race is essentially tied.

It's really not.

Of course it is, can't you read? Obama should be ahead by 15-20 pts.

Regardless of how much he "should" be ahead by, the race is not essentially tied. Obama's been consistently ahead since the primary ended.

[Sam Spade]

Be patient, folks...