Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (-1)

These results, based on Aug. 4-6 polling, are essentially the same as Gallup has found all week, and suggest that voter preferences have stabilized for the moment. Near the tail end of Obama's overseas trip his lead expanded to nine points, but in the days following the trip's conclusion McCain erased that lead and moved into a tie with Obama. Since then, Obama has reestablished a modest advantage over McCain.

From a long-term perspective, Obama's 3-point margin is consistent with what he has enjoyed since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Oh well J. J.  Win some, lose some.

[elcorazon]

Oh well J. J.  Win some, lose some.

I still think Hillary has a decent shot to get the nomination.  I don't understand why no one else gets it.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Oh boy, yet another ownage of J. J. by reality! How many does this make it?

[J. J.]

Oh well J. J.  Win some, lose some.

I still think Hillary has a decent shot to get the nomination.  I don't understand why no one else gets it.

She doesn't have a shot, unless something comes out on Obama between now and the nomination (and it would have to be bad).  She does have a very good shot of destroying the convention at this point.

[J. J.]

Obama will probably drop, but pick it up over the weekend.  He has from Monday.

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, August 8, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 43% (nc)

Today's result, based on Aug. 5-7 interviewing, is identical to where the race stood in Thursday's report, and marks the fifth straight day that McCain and Obama have been separated by between two and four points in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking poll.

It thus appears that Obama has recaptured a slight lead over McCain after essentially falling into a tie with his likely Republican opponent for a short period last week.

[J. J.]

Obama should bounce with tomorrow's numbers.

[elcorazon]

Obama should bounce with tomorrow's numbers.

why?  it will be all weekday numbers, no?

[Rowan]

Obama should bounce with tomorrow's numbers.

why?  it will be all weekday numbers, no?

Friday is essentially part of the weekend. People are out doing things.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Oh well J. J.  Win some, lose some.

I still think Hillary has a decent shot to get the nomination.  I don't understand why no one else gets it.

She doesn't have a shot, unless something comes out on Obama between now and the nomination (and it would have to be bad).  She does have a very good shot of destroying the convention at this point.

LOL. You were saying Hillary still had a good shot as late as early JUNE. The second sentence has no basis in reality whatsoever (as she has made absolutely no intentions at all toward doing so.)

But then again, how many post-NH J. J. predictions have come true?

Hillary would come close in South Carolina.
Hillary would destroy Obama on Super Tuesday.
Hillary would come close in Virginia because the independents would all vote for McCain despite that race being over for some inexplicable reason.
Hillary would win or come close in Wisconsin because some imaginary polls showed it "tightening"
Hillary would win Pennsylvania by a strong double digits and a crushing in delegates.
Hillary would win Indiana by a landslide and keep NC in single digits.
Hillary would get the Florida and Michigan delegates seated at full strength with the Michigan delegation exactly as the vote went allowing Hillary to take some uncommitted.

Did I miss any?

[Mr.Phips]

Oh well J. J.  Win some, lose some.

I still think Hillary has a decent shot to get the nomination.  I don't understand why no one else gets it.

You are joking right?  Do you seriously think the Democrats will yank the nomination from the first black nominee at the last minute?  Do you realize how badly this would kill Democrats up and down the ballot in November? 

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Oh well J. J.  Win some, lose some.

I still think Hillary has a decent shot to get the nomination.  I don't understand why no one else gets it.

You are joking right?  Do you seriously think the Democrats will yank the nomination from the first black nominee at the last minute?  Do you realize how badly this would kill Democrats up and down the ballot in November? 

It's sarcasm. It's mocking J. J.'s delusions about Hillary in the past. He was still insisting Hillary had a good shot after Montana and South Dakota voted!

[J. J.]

Oh well J. J.  Win some, lose some.

I still think Hillary has a decent shot to get the nomination.  I don't understand why no one else gets it.

She doesn't have a shot, unless something comes out on Obama between now and the nomination (and it would have to be bad).  She does have a very good shot of destroying the convention at this point.

LOL. You were saying Hillary still had a good shot as late as early JUNE. The second sentence has no basis in reality whatsoever (as she has made absolutely no intentions at all toward doing so.)

But then again, how many post-NH J. J. predictions have come true?

Hillary would come close in South Carolina.

SC I'm sure about.

Hillary would destroy Obama on Super Tuesday.

I think I said Obama needed a victory to win on Super Tuesday to end the primary.  I'm soooooo glad he ended the primary in January.

Hillary would come close in Virginia because the independents would all vote for McCain despite that race being over for some inexplicable reason.

Would you care to post the link

Hillary would win or come close in Wisconsin because some imaginary polls showed it "tightening"

That one I'll give you.

Hillary would win Pennsylvania by a strong double digits and a crushing in delegates.

She did by double digits, I did think it would be stronger.

Hillary would win Indiana by a landslide and keep NC in single digits.

"Landslide?"  I think I said she had to keep NC in single digits.

Hillary would get the Florida and Michigan delegates seated at full strength with the Michigan delegation exactly as the vote went allowing Hillary to take some uncommitted.

No, I said that Obama needed to resolve it, or it would fester into a problem.  I suggested that they hold a second primary in MI.  The damage has been done. 

Did I miss any?

New Hampshire, mini-Super Tuesday, the primary not being over until June, some potential problems at the convention.  Now, we wait until tomorrow.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Here's a link:

The independents vote for McCain.  Hillary gets the conservative Democratic vote (which is still there).  VA also seems to have a number of Latinos and Asians (9% overall, vs. 19% African American).  The remaining 70% are Caucasian.

It's possible for a VA win for Clinton.  Primary, correct?

The bolded part..LOLOLOLOLOL! Some of the most extreme idiocy I've ever read.

Hillary's margin of victory in PA = 9.14 points. Less than double digits. Hillary's margin of delegates in Pennsylvania = far less than the 20 something J. J. predicted.

NC:

NC - Obama wins but under preforms, 4-5 points above Clinton.

No, I said that Obama needed to resolve it

No, you said flat out that both states would have delegations seated and Obama would just have to "grab as many of the uncommited as he could" in Michigan. The uncomitted were a complete moot issue in Michigan it turned out.

I suggested that they hold a second primary in MI.

As if your suggestions have any bearing whatsoever on the results.

New Hampshire

You are illiterate. I'd point out the part of my post that excludes this but anyone of inteligence above third grade should be able to find it out.

the primary not being over until June

Same prediction as me. At least I wasn't saying in early June Obama was "possibly" the nominee.

some potential problems at the convention.

"Potential" blah blah blah. Please point to me any remote indicator that all of Hillary's delegates are planning to walk out of the convention which you claim is some very likely event (or the fact that Hillary plans on doing anything at the convention other than hold a vote that she loses. Hillary's delegates vote for Hillary, Obama's delegates vote for Obama. Wow, what a huge fucking problem.)

[J. J.]

Here's a link:

The independents vote for McCain.  Hillary gets the conservative Democratic vote (which is still there).  VA also seems to have a number of Latinos and Asians (9% overall, vs. 19% African American).  The remaining 70% are Caucasian.

It's possible for a VA win for Clinton.  Primary, correct?

The bolded part..LOLOLOLOLOL! Some of the most extreme idiocy I've ever read.

No that is an answer to your question: "Re: Can anyone explain what a Hillary victory in Virginia would look like? "

I'll give you PA and NC, but no "landslide" in IN.

No, you said flat out that both states would have delegations seated and Obama would just have to "grab as many of the uncommited as he could" in Michigan. The uncomitted were a complete moot issue in Michigan it turned out.

I suggested that they hold a second primary in MI.

As if your suggestions have any bearing whatsoever on the results.

No BRTD, I said he should resolve it, then he wouldn't be facing the complains over it.  What he faced the charges of a "coup" and a "stolen" nomination.  I don't think either charge is accurate, but they have happened and the Democratic party has been divided.  It may not heal in time for the election.

New Hampshire

You are illiterate. I'd point out the part of my post that excludes this but anyone of inteligence above third grade should be able to find it out.

the primary not being over until June

Same prediction as me. At least I wasn't saying in early June Obama was "possibly" the nominee.

I was looking at a way to end the process well before June

some potential problems at the convention.

"Potential" blah blah blah. Please point to me any remote indicator that all of Hillary's delegates are planning to walk out of the convention which you claim is some very likely event (or the fact that Hillary plans on doing anything at the convention other than hold a vote that she loses. Hillary's delegates vote for Hillary, Obama's delegates vote for Obama. Wow, what a huge fucking problem.)

Yes, it is huge if 30-45% of the Democratic delegates say they don't want the nominee.  It's huge from a PR standpoint.  It happened to the Democrats in 1980, the Republicans to a lesser extent in 1976, and to a greater extent in 1964.  Really the only postwar one where a divided party elected a president was 1948.

I doubt if this will be 1964, but something between 1976 (R) and 1980 (D) is a possibility.  We'll see how it plays out in a few week, but it did play out during the past week.

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday, August 9, 2008

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 42% (-1))

These results are based on a three-day rolling average of interviews conducted Aug. 6-8, with Gallup polling roughly 900 registered voters nationwide each night. The nightly numbers for each of these nights have been similar, suggesting preferences are stable.

Generally speaking, the structure of the race remains as it has been since early June, with Obama holding a modest advantage over McCain.

Obama has begun a weeklong vacation in Hawaii. It is unclear what impact his absence from the campaign trail will have. On one hand, the country's attention may be consumed by the Olympic games and the candidates might not get much attention anyway. On the other hand, to the extent voters are tuned into politics, McCain will have the stage to himself.

[Rowan]

Weekend bounce is back.

Sigh.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Weekend bounce is back.

Sigh.

Umm... no.

There is not a weekend sample in this tracking poll.

[Rowan]

Weekend bounce is back.

Sigh.

Umm... no.

There is not a weekend sample in this tracking poll.

Friday, Saturday, Sunday constitutes the weekend.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Weekend bounce is back.

Sigh.

Umm... no.

There is not a weekend sample in this tracking poll.

Friday, Saturday, Sunday constitutes the weekend.

You're kinda underestimating the potential for static here, too.  Obama may do 1-3 points better on a weekend, but either candidate may do 1-3 points better randomly too.

[Sam Spade]

If Obama is actually up +2 (which is my own personal guess - 1.5 to 2, it's what the state poll average says too), then Obama +5 is within the MOE of these tracking polls, and quite frankly, so is McCain +1.

Also, what Alcon said - and you have to into account that bad samples may occur.

However, if there is actual movement back to Obama, it will become apparent, you just have to give it time to make sure that what appears like movement isn't just a bad sample or a mirage bounce (like the European trip).  It's kind of like a waiting game.

[J. J.]

If Obama is actually up +2 (which is my own personal guess - 1.5 to 2, it's what the state poll average says too), then Obama +5 is within the MOE of these tracking polls, and quite frankly, so is McCain +1.

Also, what Alcon said - and you have to into account that bad samples may occur.

However, if there is actual movement back to Obama, it will become apparent, you just have to give it time to make sure that what appears like movement isn't just a bad sample or a mirage bounce (like the European trip).  It's kind of like a waiting game.

I'm also thinking that there might be something with the sample methods.  Maybe over representing McCain midweek, or over representing Obama on the weekends.

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Obama is on vacation in Hawaii, and while McCain continues to make campaign appearances, many Americans are watching the Olympics and presumably not focused heavily on the presidential campaign at this time. Indeed, the current three percentage point Obama advantage is right at the average gap Gallup Poll Daily tracking has measured all summer so far.

The one political news story attracting significant attention over the last two days has been former Democratic vice-presidential nominee John Edwards' public confession that he had an extramarital affair. Given the remarkable stability of the presidential race this summer so far, it is unlikely that the Edwards situation will have any impact on voters' preferences for Obama or McCain. The most reasonable hypothesis is that the next potential opportunity for substantial change in voter preferences will come with the vice-presidential announcements and the back-to-back Democratic and Republican conventions.

[Rowan]

Hmm, I must say I am baffled how his lead didn't grow with Saturday polling included.